tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post5456306609807082434..comments2024-03-28T03:08:44.068-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: More SNOW?!&%$Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger25125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-42599409949496841372009-02-25T13:51:00.000-08:002009-02-25T13:51:00.000-08:00Re: Anon@12:30pm,Assuming you can keep your AM's a...Re: Anon@12:30pm,<BR/><BR/>Assuming you can keep your AM's and PM's straight... I'll reply as if you referred to the Anon@7:40am comment.<BR/><BR/>lol, well if you think a 1020hPa high with no-precip is consistent with a 1008hPa surface minimum with precip I'd like to know what you are smoking cause it must be potent stuff.<BR/><BR/>I have an answer now to my earlier musings... you like the pretty lines and colors. <BR/><BR/>Re: Anon@12:28pm:<BR/><BR/>Assuming you aren't the 12:30pm Anon... which I doubt... see the GFS link and my comments above as they apply to you (again). Your comment also implies skill increases with forecast time (oops, wrong again)... if the forecast, as confirmed by the NWS above, is highly uncertain 24-48 hours out, 9.5/10 times it sure won't be stable 72+ hours out. Again see the GFS loop for proof of that. <BR/><BR/>Waiting for your evidence. ;)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-39394876175707049162009-02-25T12:30:00.000-08:002009-02-25T12:30:00.000-08:00Anonymous at 7:40pm, thanks for the link! Looks p...Anonymous at 7:40pm, thanks for the link! Looks pretty consistent to me!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-75548842182325487812009-02-25T12:28:00.000-08:002009-02-25T12:28:00.000-08:00Anonymous at 8:01...that doesn't say anything abou...Anonymous at 8:01...<BR/><BR/>that doesn't say anything about the past weeks' inconsistency.. just the past day or so.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-22492159470354713992009-02-25T08:01:00.000-08:002009-02-25T08:01:00.000-08:00Seems the National Weather Sevice agrees that ther...Seems the National Weather Sevice agrees that there had been little consistency earlier in the week for the Thursday forecast.<BR/><BR/>NWS-Seattle 3am Weather Discussion:<BR/><BR/>AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...A COOLER <BR/>AIR MASS WILL SWING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. CONFIDENCE IN THE <BR/>POSITION OF THE LOW IS NOT GREAT...AS THE MODELS ARE BRINGING IT <BR/>INLAND FURTHER NORTH WITH SUCCESSIVE RUNS. <BR/><BR/>...<BR/><BR/>LONG TERM...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING LOTS OF DIFFICULTY <BR/>PINNING DOWN HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT FOR SATURDAY AND BEYOND.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-37948175456822833792009-02-25T07:40:00.000-08:002009-02-25T07:40:00.000-08:00To show one example of how the GFS has NOT been co...To show one example of how the GFS has NOT been consistent over the past week look at the following loop. <BR/><BR/>The linked loop compares different GFS model runs starting from Thursday Feb. 19 through Wednesday Feb. 25. Therefore what you see are 36hr-180hr forecasts valid for the same time, Thursday 4am. <BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?gfs_pcpn_slp_thkn+v2009022612///+-st" REL="nofollow">GFS model output over last week </A><BR/><BR/>As you can see the GFS model was/is very uncertain for the PacNW and only gathers some essemblence of pinning down the forecast in the last 12-24 hours. There are still decent differences in timing/position of the trough/low during these last runs.<BR/><BR/>Again, my point is there has been high uncertainty as of late. A few who say otherwise are either making things up, have memory problems, or don't understand what the pretty lines mean.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-1085037768864716982009-02-25T06:33:00.000-08:002009-02-25T06:33:00.000-08:00Re: 'Anon@9:50pm',OK, then please describe the evo...Re: 'Anon@9:50pm',<BR/><BR/>OK, then please describe the evolution of each of the models you "watched" and how they were "consistent". I would like to know which models you "watched" and the pattern that you saw. <BR/><BR/>You couldn't have been looking at the GFS, NAM, or UK since they all had major uncertainity.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-20085660357277902492009-02-24T21:50:00.000-08:002009-02-24T21:50:00.000-08:00Actually there was consistency. I was watching. :...Actually there was consistency. I was watching. :)<BR/><BR/>Andy I might check out your blog. What's the address?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-79537944251961439772009-02-24T21:49:00.000-08:002009-02-24T21:49:00.000-08:00'Anon@8:19pm' and 'Anon@5:41pm' are spot on with t...'Anon@8:19pm' and 'Anon@5:41pm' are spot on with their comments. There has been very little model consistency at the synoptic (global GFS and NAM) and mesoscale (WRF) during the entire week or so of split flow ~NW of WA. 'Julie Anderson' please inform yourself or don't try to rebutt something when you have no idea what you are talking about, it makes you look pretty silly.<BR/><BR/>There is a big difference between describing maps of model output and forecasting the weather.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-29304129488494312642009-02-24T20:30:00.000-08:002009-02-24T20:30:00.000-08:00Probably another(yawn) non-event for us folks with...Probably another(yawn) non-event for us folks within the Seattle City Limits--although some snow may be likely in the usual CZ Target Zero areas.<BR/> I think the real snow action may be in the north part of Eastern Washington, especially in the east slopes of the Cascades and Okanogan Highlands.It appears that the Van. Island trough, the low of Oregon, and the Arctic air boundary are going to phase together in the next 24 to 48 hours somewhere over Washington, perhaps just east of here.<BR/> It will also be interesting to see if the Arctic boundary is strong enough, and moves SW enough, to affect the temperature and winds at Bellingham by Thursday.(Bellingham, incidentally, has had modified Arctic air outbreaks as late as the first week in April.)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-51855512250915557182009-02-24T20:19:00.000-08:002009-02-24T20:19:00.000-08:00Julie..you have it completely wrong. The issue wa...Julie..you have it completely wrong. The issue was that there WAS NO consistency of the model runs that far out. That is why making the forecast for snow that far out made little sense...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-40628565634491482772009-02-24T20:01:00.000-08:002009-02-24T20:01:00.000-08:00Why is the weather radar down anyways? Guess we`ll...Why is the weather radar down anyways? Guess we`ll have to look at other sites to watch the snow when and if it comes.andycottlehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12696751462397354299noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-37446503019337588402009-02-24T19:59:00.000-08:002009-02-24T19:59:00.000-08:00Josh and all... I would like to go into some detai...Josh and all... I would like to go into some detail about my thoughts for snow on Thursday for the GFS/WRF is showing, but Cliff may get after me for doing so.. :o(<BR/><BR/>Maybe Cliff will have different thoughts? Sure I know there`s uncertainty, but that it what you deal with in weather. Not to mention that the models could do a full 360 degrees and be rainy/sunny, ect.<BR/><BR/>Julie...feel free to come on over to my blog, and thanks for the comments to. :o)<BR/><BR/>What I will say about the snow is that it looks like a reasonable chance with maybe a few quick inches, but at same time, this is the first run in 12z WRF that has come up in such a short time frame. We`ll see how it plays out.andycottlehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12696751462397354299noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-51044451910694540632009-02-24T19:56:00.000-08:002009-02-24T19:56:00.000-08:00Going to be weird if it snows to monitor it. The K...Going to be weird if it snows to monitor it. The KATX radar station on Whidbey Island is down until further notice.<BR/><BR/>Let it snow :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-13434520404725042882009-02-24T19:39:00.000-08:002009-02-24T19:39:00.000-08:00Though I note the NWS have a "rain/snow mix" forec...Though I note the NWS have a "rain/snow mix" forecast too with the qualifier: "Rain showers likely before 10am, then rain and snow showers likely. Snow level 1200 feet lowering to 300 feet. [...]. High of 42. Chance of precipitation is 70%."<BR/><BR/>Not huge amounts and just on the top of the big hills in Seattle and it won't stick around.Kevin Purcellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18157202870194603923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-81546055704140176582009-02-24T19:33:00.000-08:002009-02-24T19:33:00.000-08:00What matters a little to me is whether snows Wedne...What matters a little to me is whether snows Wednesday night and whether it sticks and disrupts the school buses Thursday morning. If it snows in the Wed or Thu afternoon and sticks only to the grass, so what. Hard to imagine the roads getting bad when it hasn't been below freezing--everything was frozen back in Dec/Jan. <BR/><BR/>As far as newbies following the models, why not? They're online for everybody to see and guess at what may happen. Does not seem unlike open source programming, you can probably get some stuff for free that is good, but maybe not. And you can always fall back on XP if Linux isn't your thing. Dunno if that analogy is good, but it didn't cost you anything.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-36392063690103184002009-02-24T19:30:00.000-08:002009-02-24T19:30:00.000-08:00I love how forecasting involves saying "oh, that's...I love how forecasting involves saying "oh, that's too far in the future, we can't forecast it yet." Real forecasters saw the consistency in such features from model run to model run, as well as between the GFS, ECMWF and GEM models, and make a forecast instead of ignoring it. What a joke.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-74510792095580893592009-02-24T18:13:00.000-08:002009-02-24T18:13:00.000-08:00I remember last year, sometime in March I think, w...I remember last year, sometime in March I think, we got a surprise storm out here in Gig Harbor. Ended up with 3in of glorious snow (in about 2 hours time!). I'm hoping for a repeat at some point this year! :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-36783833178722607352009-02-24T17:53:00.000-08:002009-02-24T17:53:00.000-08:00Andy, Andy, AndyWhere is your candyAndy, Andy, Andy<BR/>Where is your candyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-51235861834964254452009-02-24T17:41:00.000-08:002009-02-24T17:41:00.000-08:00All Andy did was explain what the model showed whe...All Andy did was explain what the model showed when he brought up snow, it had nothing to do with forecasting, Cliff was correct blowing it off, and the models have not been consistent with the potential for snow since then up until yesterday and today. Andy does not forecast the weather, he just explains what the models are showing that could potentially but not guarenteed will happen for a particular timeframe. He does do a good job of explaining the models but he also realizes the likeliehood of certain things showing up more than 3-5 days away may not happen. This system could also turn out to be just a cold rain on Thursday as much as it could be widespread snow event.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-30862114533390886372009-02-24T17:36:00.000-08:002009-02-24T17:36:00.000-08:00I happen to remember Andy talking about snow chanc...I happen to remember Andy talking about snow chances for this Thursday last week - and Cliff blew it off because it was "too far away" to forecast. Maybe I'll switch to reading Andy's blog instead of this one.<BR/><BR/>Way to go Andy.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-66179499220782005442009-02-24T17:31:00.000-08:002009-02-24T17:31:00.000-08:00IMO Komo is downplaying the snow chance for Thursd...IMO Komo is downplaying the snow chance for Thursday, the airmass at this point appears to be cold enough for all snow, the only question will be precipitation amounts. This will be a fun system to track because the slightest shift one way or the other will dictate more or less snow, or no snow and cold rain, we shall see. Right now at face value many areas will see some snow starting as early as tomorrow night.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-28479124358645623942009-02-24T14:42:00.000-08:002009-02-24T14:42:00.000-08:00Yeah baby let is snow... I would love a good dumpi...Yeah baby let is snow... I would love a good dumping and some serious cold.. This does not look to be a long lasting event but I can always dream of getting surprised! It has been known to happen... <BR/><BR/>Thanks for the heads up Cliff... I know that many have been alluding to this for about a week now so glad to see that it may actually come true. :)Craighttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03836049218472044548noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-83783054707098893242009-02-24T13:15:00.000-08:002009-02-24T13:15:00.000-08:00For the mayor, it is a threat...for us a treat.For the mayor, it is a threat...for us a treat.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-56812240448000403842009-02-24T12:11:00.000-08:002009-02-24T12:11:00.000-08:00Yay, bring on the snow!! I think you added an ext...Yay, bring on the snow!! I think you added an extra 'h'... snow would be a treat, not a threat. :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-55591175728449125662009-02-24T10:04:00.000-08:002009-02-24T10:04:00.000-08:00Holden Village11 Miles S Stehekin WA48.2°N 120.75°...Holden Village<BR/>11 Miles S Stehekin WA<BR/>48.2°N 120.75°W (Elev. 3224 ft) <BR/><BR/>10 am<BR/>4 inches of fresh wet snow (finally) and 32 degrees and getting warmer.Joan Neslundhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12424361024701375024noreply@blogger.com