tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post5622949332054634365..comments2024-03-28T03:08:44.068-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Godzilla El Nino Versus The BLOB: Who Will Win?Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger32125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-18843204035634257372015-09-14T16:48:13.881-07:002015-09-14T16:48:13.881-07:00So the blob may be temporarily eased by a weather ...So the blob may be temporarily eased by a weather pattern such as El Nino. That's a nice stay of execution.<br /><br />The RRR (the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge) is generally thought to be forming as a result of shrinking ice cover in the arctic. As temperatures continue to climb world-wide, we certainly will not see any slowing in ice loss. That means the RRR will either persist or come back after a brief hiatus, right?<br /><br />Since it is this high pressure ridge which created the Blob in the first place, we'll see the Blob return as well.<br /><br />Still, I intend to enjoy the rain's return to the max, while we have it.<br />denimgolemhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02553574473200959047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-19884289992889185042015-09-14T16:04:24.238-07:002015-09-14T16:04:24.238-07:00always followed along with your blog and Friday KP...always followed along with your blog and Friday KPLZ musings on weather. hard to believe you support keeping the alaskan way viaduct standing? hope I am wrong. Seattle is moving on. a city needs to be connected to its waterfront. the viaduct was a mistake 50 plus years ago. that was a time when no one cared about waterfronts and the city closed up after work hours. the viaduct is not a place for a park, it is not a giant planter box.... it is an obsolete poorly engineered structure that has long outlived its purpose.Chachalakahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17323543776451782667noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-16964797091098618742015-09-06T11:52:39.231-07:002015-09-06T11:52:39.231-07:00Great art humor and theory. Fun and fascinating. Great art humor and theory. Fun and fascinating. suetunnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12854872678464047021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-68844329822564372722015-09-05T20:45:34.863-07:002015-09-05T20:45:34.863-07:00From weather underground
European drought cost th...From weather underground<br /><br />European drought cost this summer: $2.7 billion<br />It's been a incredible summer for extreme heat in Europe, with Germany setting its all-time heat record (twice), and with hundreds of stations having long periods of record setting all-time heat records. The heat has been responsible for hundreds of heat deaths in Europe, and according to the August 2015 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield, drought in Romania, Poland, and the Czech Republic this summer has cost at least $2.7 billion--just below the $3 billion price tag of the California drought.<br /><br />September 1, 2015: a rare day in the annuals of climatology<br />The carnage began on September 1, with September national heat records falling in eight countries. Notably, the new national heat record set in Lithuania was more than 3°C (5.4°F) higher than the previous September record--an astonishing margin for a monthly national record in a nation with dozens of reliable stations with a period of record extending back nearly 150 years. Here are the eight nations that set new September all-time heat records on September 1, 2015, according to Maximiliano Herrera:<br /><br />Moldova: Tiraspol, 38.4°C (101.1°F)<br />Ukraine: Voznesens'k, 38.8°C (101.8°F)<br />Austria: Pottschach, 36.0°C (96.8°F)<br />Czech Republic: Javornik, 37.4°C (99.3°F)<br />Slovakia: Michalovce, 36.4°C (97.5°F)<br />Poland: Tarnow, 36.8°C (98.2°F)<br />Belarus: Zitkovici, 35.6°C (96.1°F)<br />Lithuania: Druskininkai, 35.1°C (95.2°F)<br /><br />All-time September heat records were smashed at individual stations in many other countries, including Russia, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Slovenia, Italy, San Marino, Hungary, and Germany, with 48 stations in Germany alone setting new all-time September heat records (thanks go to Dr. Michael Theusner for this stat.) Some stations with more than a century of data even managed to beat their ABSOLUTE records for any month.<br />Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09751991294132134335noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-30023908058573979922015-09-05T16:17:00.662-07:002015-09-05T16:17:00.662-07:00I guess I just don't completely agree with Cli...I guess I just don't completely agree with Cliff. The PDO is strengthening on the positive side, and this El Nino episode is on a scale that we see very rarely. My amateur-ish opinion is 1) I'm not convinced that the blob is going completely away, and 2) Because this El Nino is so far off the map in terms of historical precedence I'm willing to say the effects might be something we had no expectation of. I'll jump in now and say summer of 2016 in western Washington will be (slightly) above normal temps and same for precip. But another repeat of 2015? I hope not. I love hot summers in the PNW, but that was too much..Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15611011893844380198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-51846689579981527172015-09-04T00:42:31.684-07:002015-09-04T00:42:31.684-07:00The current El Nino is being compared to the 1997 ...The current El Nino is being compared to the 1997 major El Nino, only with a hotter N. Pacific. Usually we would be warmer and drier and southern CA would get bashed during two of their four seasons: rain, mudslide. (The other two are fire and earthquake.) All bets are off this year.strix27https://www.blogger.com/profile/08754896384356494723noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-19693964421928250892015-09-03T22:19:52.521-07:002015-09-03T22:19:52.521-07:00That's one of the funniest blog posts Cliff. ...That's one of the funniest blog posts Cliff. LOL. Thank you!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00163165431063312796noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-86125915763704990702015-09-03T18:41:05.850-07:002015-09-03T18:41:05.850-07:00Blobbo delenda est!
Looks like snow flurries at S...Blobbo delenda est!<br /><br />Looks like snow flurries at Sunrise on Rainier right now. <i>Normal</i> weather at last!Stinky_Wizzleteatshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13828003625421435766noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-67766898541806713402015-09-03T14:36:56.239-07:002015-09-03T14:36:56.239-07:00I hope you are wrong. I'm so done with this w...I hope you are wrong. I'm so done with this weather. I adore snow. Would love to see the mountains get dumped on.eviehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06664593745528912939noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-92198700709208669062015-09-03T12:05:34.355-07:002015-09-03T12:05:34.355-07:00We drove the North Cascades highway from Winthrop ...We drove the North Cascades highway from Winthrop yesterday. In spite of the rain, we observed 3 small columns of smoke still rising from the Goodell creek fire. I live in Winthrop and this morning I can see a bit of smoke at the south end of the Methow valley. Its likely from the Black Canyon fire. But the fires are very much reduced, the smoke is gone and we feel safe again. According to the Winthrop weather station we got a pathetic amount of rain (storm total of 0.05-in). This week has featured some very nice, crisp, late summer/early fall days.Deekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10227802798728715787noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-57806599465073426532015-09-03T11:02:15.119-07:002015-09-03T11:02:15.119-07:00So we are to expect a warmer and drier winter than...So we are to expect a warmer and drier winter than normal? ILoveRainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14350689503381709685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-42836246655342568242015-09-03T09:52:42.545-07:002015-09-03T09:52:42.545-07:00My understanding is that the Paradise fire (SW Oly...My understanding is that the Paradise fire (SW Olympics) received 7 inches of rain, and the fire management folks still believe its alive, smoldering in the undercover, waiting to grow. If September isn't really wet, it might regain strength. <br /><br />I presume eastern WA fires (due to far less dense fuels) would take far less rain to put out, but they didn't get much out of these storms. Mostly increased humidity and cooler temps, which helps. <br /><br />Likely we'll be into November before the fire season ends completely. As per normal. Rainy season doesn't officially begin until mid-October.Best we can hope for is that we're past the worst of it.John Marshallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08271037292493818827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-13756680260701277482015-09-02T21:03:13.469-07:002015-09-02T21:03:13.469-07:00Who predicted the storms would end fire season?
W...Who predicted the storms would end fire season?<br /><br />When the vegetation is dry, an active fire can keep burning through quite a bit of rain.<br /><br />And when you throw in the Eastern Washington rain shadow, it becomes obvious that you can't reliably expect a late summer storm or two to modestly slow down the spread of active fires.iamlucky13https://www.blogger.com/profile/11983645412851735508noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-25345922053243437682015-09-02T19:30:47.373-07:002015-09-02T19:30:47.373-07:00Of course these are just predictions.
Last weeken...Of course these are just predictions.<br /><br />Last weekends storm was supposed to put an end to the fire season. But it didn't.<br /><br />So ya know, take it with a grain of salt.jno62https://www.blogger.com/profile/07471604978940553463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-51089081759379027152015-09-02T18:05:13.479-07:002015-09-02T18:05:13.479-07:00Nice use of the blob sculpin! On another note a ti...Nice use of the blob sculpin! On another note a time lapse webcam was recently installed across from the Qwuloolt Estuary Restoration project besides showing the reintroduction of tidal inundation to 350 acres in the Snohomish River Estuary it also has a great view of the sky for watching how the weather changes. The camera points North towards Marysville and is currently set to take a picture every 15 minutes during daylight hours. The link to the webcam is http://video-monitoring.com/timelapse/tulalip/slideshow.htm<br />Feel free to share the link.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04361198085649513237noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-10280029849471631952015-09-02T17:50:33.251-07:002015-09-02T17:50:33.251-07:00As I understand it, the PDO has a less dramatic cl...As I understand it, the PDO has a less dramatic climate effect than the El Nino Season Oscillation - around 1/2 degree Celsius average sea surface temperature anomaly instead of 1-2 degrees Celsius.<br /><br />Rick might still have a point though. As I understand it, the PDO and ENSO have some degree of interaction. Actually, it seems to me that since both relate to sea surface temperatures, maybe we should be talking not so much about a super El Nino, but rather a strong El Nino on top of a positive PDO phase.iamlucky13https://www.blogger.com/profile/11983645412851735508noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-80874292295856577932015-09-02T16:39:07.190-07:002015-09-02T16:39:07.190-07:00Here's hoping some of the remnants of those hu...Here's hoping some of the remnants of those hurricanes and typhoons in the Pacific come our way. I love a good windstorm, or two, or three! Minus the fatalities! Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-18623024328643988752015-09-02T16:05:20.305-07:002015-09-02T16:05:20.305-07:00https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-I3VHKO3qGM
Bewar...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-I3VHKO3qGM<br /><br />Beware of the blob, it creeps<br />And leaps and glides and slides<br />Across the floor<br />Right through the door<br />And all around the wall<br />A splotch, a blotch<br />Be careful of the blob<br /><br />-- Burt BacharachJerryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17900153415330101220noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-57099056551951570662015-09-02T16:04:20.829-07:002015-09-02T16:04:20.829-07:00Based on the scale on that chart, we are talking m...Based on the scale on that chart, we are talking maybe 2C warmer water than usual along our coast. Given coastal water is usually in the high 40's to low 50's (F), I don't think the salmon will care. They don't like 60's and up.<br /><br />Great news that the Blob may die. I'm no fan of his idea of weather.John Marshallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08271037292493818827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-85055264696667654212015-09-02T13:27:46.677-07:002015-09-02T13:27:46.677-07:00In the NOAA SST map, there's still a lot of wa...In the NOAA SST map, there's still a lot of warm water right offshore, if not exactly a Blob. I'll bet the salmon don't like it!Michael Riordanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03135613300005502938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-44013709378792748522015-09-02T12:26:06.839-07:002015-09-02T12:26:06.839-07:00Snow? You've gotta be BLOBbin' me!Snow? You've gotta be BLOBbin' me!Josh S.https://www.blogger.com/profile/07291522301117362687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-23568349111282178822015-09-02T12:16:08.222-07:002015-09-02T12:16:08.222-07:00Thanks Cliff! I hope you are right. I've enjoy...Thanks Cliff! I hope you are right. I've enjoyed the nice weather but couldn't handle another ski season like last year. <br /><br />2016-17 Should be a great ski year if it follows what happened after the 98 super El Nino. Once the heat is discharged we should get some cold winters again.Petehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12372486456777065821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-31259322526010742732015-09-02T11:25:53.345-07:002015-09-02T11:25:53.345-07:00Thanks for the clarification. I came here from the...Thanks for the clarification. I came here from the komo4 article wondering why 2 warms equal a cold. Your explanation makes perfect sense.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08478263271791729228noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-88361809009204293662015-09-02T11:23:48.880-07:002015-09-02T11:23:48.880-07:00El Nino has a strong positive impact on the number...El Nino has a strong positive impact on the number of hurricanes in the Central Pacific. We are seeing this effect right now, with 3 major hurricanes appearing simultaneously in the C/E Pacific for the first time in recorded history.<br /><br />The effect? Because remnants of such hurricanes are driven NE and then E around the periphery of the N Pacific gyre, said remnants end up in Alaska and the Pac NW. <br /><br />This additional heat energy could easily sustain the Blob for a few months longer. Coupled with even more excess heat energy put into the system by the Blob, you get the sort of anomalous low pressure system we saw over the weekend. Note also the sweep in of relatively cooler air that has followed it. They expecting snow above 5000' in the Cascades and it is only early September!<br /><br />In summary, I don't think it is a foregone conclusion that the warm and dry prediction will be correct. Something different is at play this year than in typical strong El Nino years.Sysiphushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08483730910883469883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-87401706275057936362015-09-02T09:56:35.120-07:002015-09-02T09:56:35.120-07:00PDO = Pacific Decadal OscillationPDO = Pacific Decadal OscillationJohnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09292287631863451692noreply@blogger.com