tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post5680771429979922714..comments2024-03-28T10:16:44.231-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Huge Improvement in Mountain Snow Situation and Much More is in the ForecastCliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-86717639494627433712021-12-16T17:50:54.810-08:002021-12-16T17:50:54.810-08:00Thanks! Scary thought for I5 to get 22 inches, ev...Thanks! Scary thought for I5 to get 22 inches, even if it is over 30 days and total snowfall (not accumulation)The Law Office of Robert M Dunphyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14965630440506564059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-42687612005734217662021-12-16T12:13:14.402-08:002021-12-16T12:13:14.402-08:00I love Mencken, particularly his quote of "De...I love Mencken, particularly his quote of "Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." Eric Blairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09376653214948517679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-6537162610744489722021-12-16T10:49:11.794-08:002021-12-16T10:49:11.794-08:00No it means literally 21.9 inches of snow. The 10:...No it means literally 21.9 inches of snow. The 10:1 ratio refers to the snow-water equivalent being used for the forecast. So 21.9 inches of snow equals 2.19 inches of liquid water. hellohurricane98https://www.blogger.com/profile/13097927598299910082noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-58574900541657193782021-12-16T08:44:13.767-08:002021-12-16T08:44:13.767-08:00OK, thank you. I will hold off stocking up on pop...OK, thank you. I will hold off stocking up on pop tarts for now. I'll wait for the 5 to 7 day forecast.Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01106746459635698559noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-3891551076728509892021-12-16T08:37:25.073-08:002021-12-16T08:37:25.073-08:00The extended models are lower resolution, which sm...The extended models are lower resolution, which smears out the terrain....which then extends over the lowlands. So you should not take the predictions over the lowlands literally...cliffCliff Mass Weather Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-46298228637962600912021-12-15T18:12:52.943-08:002021-12-15T18:12:52.943-08:00The snow forecast image says 10:1 ratio. Is that ...The snow forecast image says 10:1 ratio. Is that sizing, or measurements? (I.e. the 21.9 means 2.19 inches of snow?)The Law Office of Robert M Dunphyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14965630440506564059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-37354793839140613022021-12-15T17:51:13.544-08:002021-12-15T17:51:13.544-08:00Yeah that can't possibly be right. 2 to 3 ft ...Yeah that can't possibly be right. 2 to 3 ft of snow in lower puget sound area (according to the image he shared) within the next month? <br /><br />Or am I reading the image wrong? Scott K.https://www.blogger.com/profile/09543174609187989825noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-52273594141863559582021-12-15T16:03:59.664-08:002021-12-15T16:03:59.664-08:00Long term forecasts have a huge amount of uncertai...Long term forecasts have a huge amount of uncertainty. Snow is particularly difficult to forecast for the west coast lowlands, because our winter weather is typically either cold or wet, but it's a minority of the time that it is both at the same time.<br /><br />When we do get snow, usually either the temperature or the moisture content are marginal. A forecast even less than a week away for heavy snow can turn out to just be rain if the temperatures turn out to be only a couple degrees warmer than forecast, or clear skies if a humid air mass moves further north or south than expected.<br /><br />So treat this forecast as indicating it is more likely than not that we'll have a decent amount of lowland snow, but with a lot of uncertainty. I'd say with the temperature forecast, it's very unlikely this will be one of the occasional no snow years, but the actual snow amount could very easily fall well short of what is indicated in the 1 month forecast. On the other hand, it could exceed that. In 1950, for example, the winter total snowfall for Seattle was just over 5 feet! (not all at once, of course).<br /><br />You can usually start to get excited when you see snow in the 7 day forecast, with progressively more confidence the shorter the time you're looking ahead.iamlucky13https://www.blogger.com/profile/11983645412851735508noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-2320811338958915932021-12-15T15:56:08.899-08:002021-12-15T15:56:08.899-08:00I'm guessing it's just a coarse grid model...I'm guessing it's just a coarse grid model and that doesn't work so well in an area like the PNW where you can have radically different precipitation just a few miles apart. I wouldn't read too much into it as far as the potential for lowland snow.seussnelsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01057990148265860357noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-15167180878199001982021-12-15T13:32:33.667-08:002021-12-15T13:32:33.667-08:00OK, please tell me I am seeing the last image wron...OK, please tell me I am seeing the last image wrong. Twenty-one inches of snow for the 1-5 corridor in the next 32 days?!?! I will make the assumption that the model used to make this image does not mean to go down to sea level, but just the elevations above 1,000 feet (fingers crossed on that any way). If not, I guess I will need to stock up on my emergency supplies of pop tarts.Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01106746459635698559noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-21573132264692149072021-12-15T11:05:42.717-08:002021-12-15T11:05:42.717-08:00Don't worry about the MSM, they'll just pi...Don't worry about the MSM, they'll just pivot immediately away towards claiming that the snow bounty as just another valid data point for AGW. Because Science! Eric Blairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09376653214948517679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-51414866234677915672021-12-15T10:04:57.674-08:002021-12-15T10:04:57.674-08:00I was heavily involved in automating SNOTEL data c...I was heavily involved in automating SNOTEL data collection in the 2nd half of the 70's. We installed data collection and communication equipment in all of the participating states. California did their own snow pack data collect and reporting and did not participate in SNOTEL. Thus, the USDA/NRCS reports you show are blank for California. I would think that at some point in the last half century, California data would be integrated into these federal reports to provide a more complete view of the western snow pack.DK Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03797025458685989744noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-80781887460448211172021-12-15T09:58:46.477-08:002021-12-15T09:58:46.477-08:00RE: your remark about the Seattle Times. HL Mencke...RE: your remark about the Seattle Times. HL Mencken famously said that the newspaper business was nothing more than buying newsprint at 5 cents a pound and selling it at 10 cents a pound. Still true methinks.saberjimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13803621046836974188noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-91328685636701477502021-12-15T09:34:59.715-08:002021-12-15T09:34:59.715-08:00Cliff, is there any way we could get a bit more cl...Cliff, is there any way we could get a bit more clarity on this: "And snow will be bountiful over the entire region (6-10 feet)".<br /><br />Can you put some parameters on that?<br /><br />4+ day window of anticipated arrival?<br />Anticipated length of event?<br />When temps drop, and to what levels?<br />Geographic parameters / elevations of event anticipated?<br />Jonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16470022185130215060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-42954329946244292992021-12-15T08:33:08.699-08:002021-12-15T08:33:08.699-08:00Will this snow and cold come with any sun?Will this snow and cold come with any sun?Lauriehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05241778916925612380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-40356316729685598132021-12-14T23:43:24.825-08:002021-12-14T23:43:24.825-08:00Cliff, are there any indications of a artic outbre...Cliff, are there any indications of a artic outbreak headed our way?.timhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15826018321765095138noreply@blogger.com