tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post5739648207327101249..comments2024-03-28T07:43:57.163-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: UncertaintyCliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger25125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-31297579212836311832010-11-20T20:56:01.529-08:002010-11-20T20:56:01.529-08:00Cliff, your sheer number of page hits should tell ...Cliff, your sheer number of page hits should tell you that we need another update! Since we keep checking, we obviously love your forecasts!<br /><br />Especially in times like now!Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02254619827684776116noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-48738368817899118002010-11-20T18:03:34.820-08:002010-11-20T18:03:34.820-08:00I emailed the weather service on Wednesday to let ...I emailed the weather service on Wednesday to let them know they were underestimating the wind speeds for this weekend for the San Juan Islands. NE 10 to 15 mph just didn't cut it. Then they upgraded it on Thursday to 15 - 25 with gusts to 35 as I had suggested. Then they downgraded back to 10-15 mph yesterday morning. And then finally they realized their mistake. Too much now forecasting on wind speeds this past week.<br /><br />Ferdi Businger, Sinclair IslandAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-58988154217056752832010-11-20T17:46:14.773-08:002010-11-20T17:46:14.773-08:00All I can say is remember
Remember remember rememb...All I can say is remember<br />Remember remember remember<br />The mistake<br />That Nickles maaaaaaaaade<br /><br />When the streets<br />Turn to rivers of ice<br />Get out the sand<br />Get out the shovels<br />Listen to me businessmen!<br />Or your Xmas shopping season<br />Will be fraught with slippery danger!<br />(Danger! Danger!)<br /><br />...<br />(sorry, just spent the afternoon listening to complaint choirs of the world)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-49616761377002445112010-11-20T17:28:25.762-08:002010-11-20T17:28:25.762-08:00City of Redmond has deice solution on SR 202 as of...City of Redmond has deice solution on SR 202 as of around 5:15. Van reads 37 degreesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-23181835493958406602010-11-20T16:43:54.261-08:002010-11-20T16:43:54.261-08:00Cliff, I'm jonsen' for an update. Have an ...Cliff, I'm jonsen' for an update. Have an 8:45am class Monday, and have a paper due!Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02254619827684776116noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-25120257763996307632010-11-20T16:40:21.161-08:002010-11-20T16:40:21.161-08:00sdpontiac said "Do you have a link you can sh...sdpontiac said "Do you have a link you can share on where we can look at current GFS and NAM maps?"<br /><br />The best page is at this link <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/data/wxdisc.cgi" rel="nofollow">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/data/wxdisc.cgi</a>. You have obs, sat, radar, global model output and some mesoscale model output all in one place.<br /><br />Check out all the links on the page (especially those at the bottom the link to the "data" page is a great source of links to all their weather obs, forecasts.<br /><br />All of the mesoscale model output is at <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/" rel="nofollow">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/</a><br /><br />Perhaps the best thing to follow along is the "WebAFD": an illustrated version of the National Weather Service Area Forecast Discussion. <br /><br />In the AFD a forecaster at the NWS (in this case the Seattle office ... SEW) explains his thinking behind the current forecast (once per shift) and possible issues or problems with the forecast. Read the text and look at the images (screen caps from their workstations). You can also see some of the forecaster rules of thumb (the current one is 1000mb to 950mb thickness less than 1300m is cold enough for snow). Even better the AFDs often are humorous.<br /><br />You can find the current Seattle Web AFD at <a href="http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sew/gafd/latest_webafd.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sew/gafd/latest_webafd.html</a><br /><br />Of course a good intro to meteorology helps by putting the basics in place. Looking at a pretty plot of the expected vorticity doesn't help if you don't know what vorticity is or why you should care. Or why people would want to know what the layer thickness is.<br /><br />Hopefully the rush to view the data won't flatten the UW servers. I for one am really grateful that all of this info is published outside of the firewall. And they do take donations too to support their network costs.Kevin Purcellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18157202870194603923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-10180611033467466012010-11-20T15:18:51.838-08:002010-11-20T15:18:51.838-08:00I trust all saw and enjoyed this:
http://www.seat...I trust all saw and enjoyed this:<br /><br />http://www.seattlepi.com/fun/comic.asp?feature_id=BizarroChristopherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02487693248816810787noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-51411618557217350612010-11-20T13:58:19.065-08:002010-11-20T13:58:19.065-08:00City of Portland seems fairly sure we will have en...City of Portland seems fairly sure we will have enough snow down here to require clearing it. They've chained up their entire fleet, hung all their plows and their spox said "we're convinced it's coming" (yesterday, on the noon news).<br /><br />The City uses AccuWeather, which we can't get without a subscription, so AW must have validated the NAM...Rivrdoghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02685083857476811667noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-87767715895502885172010-11-20T12:54:04.675-08:002010-11-20T12:54:04.675-08:00natch, I gotta say, being from the Northeast, the...natch, I gotta say, being from the Northeast, the idea of a 5 inch snowdrift is pretty funny. Only in Bham...Jay_Northhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14479390162942250293noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-7982933805511502462010-11-20T12:20:20.649-08:002010-11-20T12:20:20.649-08:00Do you have a link you can share on where we can l...Do you have a link you can share on where we can look at current GFS and NAM maps? I would love to view the most current model runs as I read through the weather service discussions... Thanks,blakeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18106768981281906064noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-3891404300560716152010-11-20T11:14:59.927-08:002010-11-20T11:14:59.927-08:00I've always wanted modern tools to help me dea...I've always wanted modern tools to help me deal with uncertainty!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-22010441148848957922010-11-20T10:07:39.567-08:002010-11-20T10:07:39.567-08:00For a complete weather novice the line "Want ...For a complete weather novice the line "Want to see the difference" made me chuckle because when I look at the two models all I see are "Oh, more pretty blue there than there" and "The pretty squiggly lines move differently." I am going to click on them so they are larger and see if that helps me understand them better. I am fascinated though by the fact that we even have models that can predict weather to begin with. Also, I seem to be the only adult in Seattle rooting for snow in town.Urbancowgrrlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15860022294549771879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-39988665904855689262010-11-20T10:01:22.384-08:002010-11-20T10:01:22.384-08:00Orcas Island, Mount Constitution, 25 degrees, appr...Orcas Island, Mount Constitution, 25 degrees, approximately 3 inches of snow, windy and clearing... well here we go for winter 2010-11Michaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10521417893579493676noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-12846991656128281002010-11-20T09:34:44.779-08:002010-11-20T09:34:44.779-08:00I'm 15 miles NE of Bellingham, and we got only...I'm 15 miles NE of Bellingham, and we got only about an inch of snow. Unfortunately the howling north winds have polished that snow into solid ice on the roads, so it's treacherous driving. No sand trucks yet, so I had to bail on my grocery run to town. Melt please!Joannahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02788312334364951442noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-80425534773585931532010-11-20T08:47:57.532-08:002010-11-20T08:47:57.532-08:00As predicted, Jim Forman on the scene in his yello...As predicted, Jim Forman on the scene in his yellow arctic parka producing a heavy downfall of hyperbole and fear. He cautions everyone to stay home.<br />What a shame he is the intro to Jeff's forecast.dabobmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15088823374636065720noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-79572490203839331832010-11-20T08:44:08.411-08:002010-11-20T08:44:08.411-08:0008:30-first flakes falling in Sequim, land of the ...08:30-first flakes falling in Sequim, land of the smug!Michael DeMarcohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04320634165404283841noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-15313082207448476322010-11-20T03:54:44.463-08:002010-11-20T03:54:44.463-08:00I'd say Whatcom County got it pretty good.
ht...I'd say Whatcom County got it pretty good.<br /><br />http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y287/thunderbird107/whatcomsnow.jpgM Jarred Sheltonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01813555652075403456noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-2478341259094057052010-11-19T23:43:33.957-08:002010-11-19T23:43:33.957-08:00The northwest side of Bellingham picked up 3.5&quo...The northwest side of Bellingham picked up 3.5" in 3 hours. The snow was moderate to heavy at times.Bham_Guyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01472239482436641063noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-64677281431741868682010-11-19T23:15:22.838-08:002010-11-19T23:15:22.838-08:00We have around 3 inches on the ground and still sn...We have around 3 inches on the ground and still snowing like crazy in Bellingham. Take that, snow Grinches! I had to clear about 5 inch drifts from my hood and windshield and navigate crazy slippery roads, some in deep unblemished snow, to get home. Love it! Is that what is meant by light snow? : )Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-48454842483966454212010-11-19T23:11:00.657-08:002010-11-19T23:11:00.657-08:00At least two-inches over near the Civic Athletic C...At least two-inches over near the Civic Athletic Complex in Bellingham, and it's still coming down pretty good.Milo Hysonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14944016761578680267noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-22276906484068546282010-11-19T22:50:36.117-08:002010-11-19T22:50:36.117-08:00About 4 inches on South Hill in Bellingham, and st...About 4 inches on South Hill in Bellingham, and still coming down. Radar is promising more to come!!!showhankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15790749155374050802noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-74825424838935017422010-11-19T22:49:54.007-08:002010-11-19T22:49:54.007-08:00We're up to a good 2 inches in downtown Bellin...We're up to a good 2 inches in downtown Bellingham. The Fraser wind seems to have tapered off a bit from earlier but it's still there.Lord Bennehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06433113091185608493noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-24911453031462410862010-11-19T22:19:20.259-08:002010-11-19T22:19:20.259-08:00I'd definitely say Bellingham downtown is gett...I'd definitely say Bellingham downtown is getting heavy snow right now. 3 inches of wet stuff in the courtyard of my building.Jon McConnelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04955638367687016071noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-31765066802625659782010-11-19T22:10:58.407-08:002010-11-19T22:10:58.407-08:00Yep - snowing like crazy in Bellingham for the las...Yep - snowing like crazy in Bellingham for the last 1.5 hours - we're loving it!Jay_Northhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14479390162942250293noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-6202712978162441852010-11-19T22:04:34.663-08:002010-11-19T22:04:34.663-08:00were it only possible to use those high-tech tools...were it only possible to use those high-tech tools for dealing with uncertainty in non-meteorological areas of one's life... <br /><br />looking forward to the upcoming posts! the 5 y.o. is still hoping for snow, but now knows we need cold AND "water in the air" (her idea: why don't we take some water from the house and throw it up high to MAKE snow???)Olgahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13812716670021878946noreply@blogger.com