tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post5769292742280942783..comments2024-03-28T08:19:50.193-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Northwest Wildfires: Are We Seeing a "New Normal" Due to Climate Change or The "Old Normal"?Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger75125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-34588141871482386372018-10-11T01:32:06.338-07:002018-10-11T01:32:06.338-07:00,,,global warming,,, miserables-religious call to ...,,,global warming,,, miserables-religious call to English the "saint language",,, in the "bonfire",,, "bon" from French bon: "good",,, At present miserables-religious-terrorist-religious from other credos are burning the forest in the entire World,,, obviously using tech-artefacts, drones, balloons,,, (for that reason, news, are robbing drones to the shops), governments must to put in the forest towers of radar and nocturnal infrared for early detection of those drones used by terrorist-religious, although is more cheap and easy to say the truth and to declare that THE RELIGIOUS ARE ENEMIES OF THE HUMANKIND,,, and the miserable-religious occult-power Rome-saint, terror against reason how they did to Galileo Galilei (recent threat: "the World War III has already begun") protects to those other credos and silences to the politicians and the Global Media (they never say that are the incendiary-religious) for that the innocent people that still says "oh my God" do not know it a fact already evident: IS TRUTH THAT RELIGION IS LIEtonyonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08253501266473243514noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-9600317746523322812018-08-30T15:17:31.540-07:002018-08-30T15:17:31.540-07:00If increasing wildfire is due to reduced logging t...If increasing wildfire is due to reduced logging then why were “wildfires in the northwest … much worse” before all the logging? This doesn’t add up. <br /><br />Science shows that wildfire is driven far more by weather conditions than by fuel conditions.<br /><br />===begin-quote===<br />Annual wildfire area burned in coming decades is likely to be highly geographically heterogeneous, reflecting interacting regional and seasonal climate drivers of fire occurrence and spread. <br />... <br />Weather conditions at local and regional scales during the fire season are dominant factors influencing fuel flammability and annual area burned [17–20]. Warmer temperatures in concert with drought decrease fuel moisture, increase lightning ignitions, and lengthen the period over which fires occur [21], [22]. At regional scales, the occurrence of severe fire weather is regulated strongly by seasonal climatology as reflected in synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation [23–26]. As a consequence, the potential impacts of seasonal weather on fire behavior and extent are spatially heterogeneous, for several reasons. Growing season temperature influences water balance deficits (PET-AET)–an important variable controlling annual area burned by regulating biomass and fuel moisture–variably across climates and ecosystems [22], [26–28]. ... In addition to fire-season weather, antecedent temperature and precipitation over prior months and years regulate fire frequency and extent to varying degrees across ecosystem types. These effects are especially strong where winter and spring moisture are limiting to growth and conditioning of fine fuels prior to fire season [26], [33], [34]. Ecosystems will thus generate differential responses in vegetation growth in response to warming and changes in precipitation, resulting in significant differences in fuel types and loads under altered climate [7], [35]. For example, although warming may increase area burned under extreme warming/drying conditions in more productive, less fire-prone ecosystems due to increased fuel desiccation, it may produce only modest changes or even decreased area burned in less productive, fuel limited ecosystems by restricting fuel production [3], [6], [15].<br />...<br />Seasonal climate variation exerts a primary control on the length, location, and intensity of fire seasons in western North America and worldwide. The amount of area burned by wildfires represents a complex integration of productivity, ignition patterns, landscape configuration (i.e., fuel connectivity), synoptic and local weather, and seasonal climatic conditions that condition fuels and influence fire spread and the length of fire season, along with the important role of anthropogenic ignitions [18], [20], [32].<br />...<br />Wildfire is a global Earth system process that both integrates and influences many other interactions between ecosystem and the climate system. Fire mediates other ecosystem responses to changing climate, for example by modulating forest density and composition, and thus providing a mechanism by which ecosystems adapt to changing climate conditions. Uncertainties in key elements of climate projections could be compounded by nonlinear responses of fire to climate variability. Fires may also act as triggers for abrupt and irreversible change to novel configurations under Direct and indirect controls on annual wildfire area burned future climate [44], [83]. As climate change progresses, the projected changes in the area affected annually by fire may be an important multiplier of these effects in coming decades.<br />===end-quote===<br /><br />Kitzberger T, Falk DA, Westerling AL, Swetnam TW (2017) Direct and indirect climate<br />controls predict heterogeneous early-mid 21st century wildfire burned area across western and boreal North America. PLoS ONE 12(12): e0188486. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0188486Dougohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16439779634103149937noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-28498780220688691162018-08-30T12:09:01.898-07:002018-08-30T12:09:01.898-07:00Various commenters have touched on the issue of fu...Various commenters have touched on the issue of fuel loads and biomass utilization. Here's a recent article that may be of interest.<br /><br />https://fireadaptednetwork.org/fantastic-failure-biomass-utilization/<br />Jim Douglashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12639224156589191794noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-34372357552137660442018-08-29T07:50:26.394-07:002018-08-29T07:50:26.394-07:00It's absolutely true that allowing underbrush ...It's absolutely true that allowing underbrush to accumulate drives hotter fires. It's also true that even in forests without a history of fire suppression (Alaska) or that don't have this natural fire cycle(parts of Colorado), there are still faster hotter fires burning. The question is what's the predominant problem, and the answer is climate change, to the tune of at least 55%. <br /><br />The TL;DR is that 55% of increased area burned since 1984 is due to aridity from climate change. The details indicate the number is probably even higher: https://medium.com/@shasta_willson/smokestorms-a-return-to-normal-c4e8804cb589Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14092716980956340337noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-26157587791397591732018-08-27T14:10:59.010-07:002018-08-27T14:10:59.010-07:00The amount of temperature deviation for solar mini...The amount of temperature deviation for solar minimum is trivia compared to the impact of trapping heat in a layer of CO2. There is a reason the 'bottom half' of the atmosphere is warming and not the 'top half'. If it was the sun, we would see warming throughout the entire atmosphere.Geekoidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02776860053353538300noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-34649427452151535852018-08-27T14:06:28.248-07:002018-08-27T14:06:28.248-07:00Any metrics on logging relative to fires? Because ...Any metrics on logging relative to fires? Because it sure looks like peak logging era was around minimal fire era.<br /><br />Not saying it's a solution, but if we're going to talk about causes I"m not sure fire management is the ONLY one. Especially since better Fire management practices have been known for 2+ decades now and it's not like we're making a lot of progress.<br /><br />I think it would be interesting if Cliffs could add some weather data. Like we know winds effect the perception of fires to us Urban folks. A strong marine push and Poof, no one is talking about fires on the the west side. <br /><br />Like I get the caution of connecting a global phenomena with a local one that's 2-3 steps removed, but shouldn't we at least mention/consider local weather? Even if the anomalies aren't Climate Change drive, the last 4 summers have been hotter than normal and our drying season seems to be starting earlier each season, have there been stronger east winds(probably since that's our heat engine). It may not be global climate change, but the local pattern has seemed unusual to say the least.Restless_onehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09591091744476419967noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-6170069463115195912018-08-27T12:53:12.228-07:002018-08-27T12:53:12.228-07:00Hi Cliff,
It would've been interesting to hea...Hi Cliff,<br /><br />It would've been interesting to hear a little more about weather conditions that push smoke into the Seattle area. This controls whether we experience smoke when fires do occur. How likely are we to experience the conditions that have prevailed over the last few weeks.<br /><br />Laura H.LMH, University of Washingtonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00306643634043529925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-10902390007129336102018-08-27T11:39:05.680-07:002018-08-27T11:39:05.680-07:00This post seems to flirt with black and white thin...This post seems to flirt with black and white thinking - our drastic fire situation is just driven by poor management. Common sense tells us otherwise. Longer, hotter, drier summers stress the forests, even reasonably well managed ones.<br /><br />A few weeks ago USFS Rocky Mtn. Research Station put out a major paper on this - it finds that declines in summer precipitation and lengthening dry spells during summer are major drivers of increased fire activity. Read the abstract here: http://ow.ly/qIMV30lu3Db.<br /><br />The sorry state of our forests, especially in Southern Oregon is a huge problem, but it appears that our gridlock on forest matters is being overtaken by forces of weather/climate.<br /><br />Joe Walshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07946305249750835596noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-48452745459492140902018-08-27T09:33:16.196-07:002018-08-27T09:33:16.196-07:00Cliff is reporting data collected after widespread...Cliff is reporting data collected after widespread logging began, after coal-fired trains were starting fires with flying sparks, after farmers started using fire to clear their land etc. Rebecca Timsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11893945762947495364noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-38484591414313986042018-08-27T04:53:09.932-07:002018-08-27T04:53:09.932-07:00Hi Cliff,
Thanks for writing this essay. It is an...Hi Cliff,<br /><br />Thanks for writing this essay. It is an important discussion to have. I'm in the south eastern corner of Australia and so we have these discussions too - for much the same reasons. The state government here does conduct burns, although they are not nearly regular enough or done over much of the landscape. In really big fires, well everything dies: trees; animals; insects; birds; soil life etc. So big and really hot fires are a bad thing. I've seen engine blocks melt and roadside guard rails twisted as if they were ribbons. Anyway, I also live in tall forest and try to help the oldest trees along as much as I physically can. It is a big job, which is why few people want to tackle that matter.<br /><br />Incidentally I was curious as to why people feel that your forests (and ours down here) were largely untouched pristine forests when the white fellas showed up? The first nation folk down here were forever managing the forests, and we have to too, although not many people realise that. If we take a peek back into deep time, we quickly realise that humans eating all the megafauna which previously kept the forests open meant that we then had to take that job on ourselves. And the tool they used was fire on a regular basis. By all accounts the entire landscape was burned on a 3 (grass land) to 15 year (tall forests) basis.<br /><br />Incidentally on an historical basis, the fires were far bigger down here way back in the day. The 1851 fire down here in Victoria was epic and it burned nearly a quarter of the entire state. That beats all of your lot, probably combined. But the fires up north of the country are even more epic in scale.<br /><br />Good luck and thanks for the excellent essay.<br /><br />ChrisFernglade Farmhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06950962122594709186noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-90487929916736854462018-08-26T21:27:23.319-07:002018-08-26T21:27:23.319-07:00In my previous post the link to the discussed arti...In my previous post the link to the discussed article somehow got deleted. The article is "Long-term perspective on wildfires in the western USA" in Feb 28, 2012 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. http://www.pnas.org/content/109/9/E535CChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04249207410731810954noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-809268467917766962018-08-26T17:10:37.965-07:002018-08-26T17:10:37.965-07:00https://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/goddard/2018/a-...https://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/goddard/2018/a-world-on-fire<br /><br />Not only is this a beautiful image, but the content for why each area is on fireAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11784006870461218566noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-48735938682142523102018-08-26T17:09:59.234-07:002018-08-26T17:09:59.234-07:00https://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/goddard/2018/a-...https://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/goddard/2018/a-world-on-fire<br /><br />Not only is this a beautiful image, but the content for why each area is on fireAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11784006870461218566noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-80172728442015774632018-08-26T14:49:53.693-07:002018-08-26T14:49:53.693-07:00Unknown said "Because snow melt is occurring ...Unknown said "Because snow melt is occurring earlier, forests are lacking moisture during peak evapotransportation periods..."<br /><br />TW B said: "...increased spring and summer temperatures and an earlier spring snowmelt..."<br /><br />100% not true re: snowmelt trends, the truth is the exact opposite in the Cascades: http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/05/stevens-pass-melt-out.html "There is no evidence of a long-term trend for earlier melt-out dates. In fact, just the opposite....melt out dates are trending later..."<br /><br />stay reasonable said: "Yes, reduced summer precip and winter snowpack...i.e. drought is factoring in..."<br /><br />Snowpack has been increasing in the Cascades for 40+ years: http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/03/is-western-us-snowpack-declining.html <br /><br />Precip is increasing (has been for decades) in the PNW and is expected to continue that trend: http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/04/west-coast-precipitation-trends.html<br />sunsnow12https://www.blogger.com/profile/16856025812008113046noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-30903769780956531172018-08-26T13:18:50.527-07:002018-08-26T13:18:50.527-07:00The trees have a personal story to tell about wild...The trees have a personal story to tell about wildfire. Simply put, no tree survives into old age without once or more times encountering wildfire. Over a timeline of 300 to 500 years, nearly all forest burn. The typical Western forest burns with a greater frequency, in the 40-150-year range. The proof is visible to the observer, in the scars at the bases of the old growth forest, the uniformity of tree size type and height of the regenerating forest, missing composted soil structure, or even the presence of partial soil gasification in place of soils. If we can get our combine heads wrapped around the reality of the natural forest wildfire cycle, wildfire management and or suppression strategies will be possible Look to the forest and the trees for the answers, after all, they do survive, re-seed and re-build. Look to the trees, what we are doing at present is little more than chasing tails.Greg Spurlockhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09969156588745390129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-49192729954456439412018-08-26T09:56:27.079-07:002018-08-26T09:56:27.079-07:00I see that you used ODF data this time instead of ...I see that you used ODF data this time instead of the national one this time. Given the criticism of the data being biased by southeast slash burning (mentioned by several posters here) that would appear to be prudent. The problem with the Oregon data is that it is heavily influenced by the multiple Tillamook burns which were human caused and a direct result of poor logging practices that left large areas of dry slash debris on the ground instead of burning it off. That caused the fire to get large and hot enough to torch off the virgin coastal forests which usually don't burn as easily as non coastal forests. After that there was so much partially burned timber lying around that there were several follow on fires. Ditto the Yacoult burn. The Bandon fire was a weird outlier because the settlers had planted lots of an irish shrub that burned hot and fast. Also the weather was unusually hot and dry during that era, something we are starting to experience now.<br />So I don't see those fires as being natural or typical. Not mentioned is that one of the reasons the number of large fires went down was the implementation of "Yacoult Rules" for logging.Weather Devoteehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07071334949599205140noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-5769992743489420602018-08-26T08:22:56.937-07:002018-08-26T08:22:56.937-07:00It doesn't seem likely that we could ever go b...It doesn't seem likely that we could ever go back to the "old normal", whatever that was. :)Larryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08883364017216063204noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-17109295191545426952018-08-25T23:02:06.934-07:002018-08-25T23:02:06.934-07:00we once had real forests with canopies and moss gr...we once had real forests with canopies and moss ground cover that absorbed rainfall filtering it before it could flood. locations with pine forests burned and somehow the huge timber survived and created an ecosystem to support itself.. the pine forests thrived with natural fire creating park like conditions underneath documented in books like “The Great Forest”. we now have mono species tree farms over vast amounts of the west with incredible invasive species adding to the mix.it is true that since Europeans arrived we created massive forest fires in the 1800s and 1900s. but I wonder whether your data from those days is accurately aligned with today. either way, comparing those old school fires to todays blazes are comparing far too many variables to be relevent. I just don’t buy the premise. natural systems had hundreds of years to recover. we are demanding instant gratification, as usual. just “fix” the problem by letting the same jerks get in and mess with nature. as to logging being “gone” please, I’ve driven by numerous mill operations and they never have had such mounds of logs waiting for processing. to say logging is hurting is just b.s.Alfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00318137124766668558noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-90121246489981365782018-08-25T22:25:31.785-07:002018-08-25T22:25:31.785-07:00Cliff, I would like to add my voice to the idea of...Cliff, I would like to add my voice to the idea of smaller, more controlled, burns. How can I do that?DonBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09164001392751646198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-66591022283803757772018-08-25T20:59:14.568-07:002018-08-25T20:59:14.568-07:00Thank you for bringing history into context.Thank you for bringing history into context.Donnahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12914479337992538262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-42167664194774331062018-08-25T20:42:20.671-07:002018-08-25T20:42:20.671-07:00There is not uniform acceptance of wildfire statis...There is not uniform acceptance of wildfire statistics for the early years of the 20th century. See the website https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-how-global-warming-has-increased-us-wildfires, which quotes personnel of the National Interagency Fire Center; an excerpt follows:<br /> *Those sceptical about the role of climate change in the recent increase in fires have pointed to the full dataset, trying to argue that the fire area has decreased by around 80% over the past century.<br /><br />This is not an accurate comparison, according to Randy Eardley, a spokesman at the NIFC. As he tells Carbon Brief:<br /><br />"I wouldn’t put any stock in those numbers. To try and compare any of the more modern data to that earlier data is not accurate or appropriate, because we didn’t have a good way to measure [earlier data]. Back then we didn’t have a reliable reporting system; for all I know those came from a variety of different sources that often double-counted figures. When you look at some of those years that add up to 60 or 70 million acres burned a lot of those acres have to be double counted two or three times. We didn’t have a system to estimate area burned until 1960, but it was really refined in 1983."Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11136457893467281345noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-73047355555848854862018-08-25T19:20:54.929-07:002018-08-25T19:20:54.929-07:00I would like to suggest adding one more thing you ...I would like to suggest adding one more thing you can do to Bruce Kay's comments..<br />"As citizens of one small region there is much you can do.<br /><br />1) actively oppose all Republican / Conservative governments<br />2) actively support the implementation of a carbon tax<br />3) actively support transitioning away from coal by any practical means, including hydro which Washington is well positioned to do"<br /><br />ADD: 4.Stop breeding like rabbits and stop rewarding births with government handouts.Cedarspringhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18357484458111256359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-47733256653514120092018-08-25T15:56:51.191-07:002018-08-25T15:56:51.191-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16770039088585628371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-85546201097693379732018-08-25T14:07:02.534-07:002018-08-25T14:07:02.534-07:00Where do upper atmosphere winds take North America...Where do upper atmosphere winds take <a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dlbkt1eXcAECdPL.jpg:large" rel="nofollow">North American wildfire smoke?</a>Puffinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14841754021353250259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-15298721342287168772018-08-25T13:48:10.476-07:002018-08-25T13:48:10.476-07:00Clif,
Does your ODF illustration include acres tre...Clif,<br />Does your ODF illustration include acres treated with fire like prescribed burns? Those acres create a hell of a lot of smoke too. Tree huggerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06494022291519715678noreply@blogger.com