tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post5795785424598599287..comments2024-03-28T23:07:35.632-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: How Will Human-Forced Climate Change Affect the Pacific Northwest?Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger42125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-82073749739998348802017-09-03T10:19:04.403-07:002017-09-03T10:19:04.403-07:00Thanks again, Cliff, for laying out the current sc...Thanks again, Cliff, for laying out the current science. I feel reassured by the fact that all sides feel a need to attack you. This just tells me that you are doing a great job of trying to find the truth while acknowledging just how hard that is. Ultimately, we are just human (really, just animals with oversized brains) and stuck in our own made up worlds. We think that we are smarter than we are and so we complain when scientists admit that we don't know for sure and damn when they get things wrong. Thank you for not succumbing to the urge to proclaim absolutes in this political climate and giving us information that can help us going forward.Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16922925805848915960noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-57880367215987447192017-09-02T23:47:10.202-07:002017-09-02T23:47:10.202-07:00Given that it's difficult to attribute any sin...Given that it's difficult to attribute any single storm/drought to gw, is it not better to discuss instead in terms of how gw is increasing the probability of extreme weather? <br /><br />"Global warming is contributing to an increased incidence of extreme weather because the environment in which all storms form has changed from human activities” -excerpt from "(Un)Natural Disasters: Communicating Linkages Between Extreme Events and Climate Change" this article can be found on the Global Meteorological Organization's website.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08151810801866819836noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-40076064142249299992017-08-31T11:10:17.621-07:002017-08-31T11:10:17.621-07:00Bruce Kay,
You're correct: we wouldn't wan...Bruce Kay,<br />You're correct: we wouldn't want to pay attention to what two scientists with PhD's and experience in the field have to say about the subject, would we? Fortunately, Easterbrook's book contains many dated photographs and USGS contemporaneous maps to support his argument.<br /><br />Don't you think that Pelto might be a little underweight in the CV department? In addition, since his research extends only to about 1980, isn't he likely to think that the trend since 1980 is a permanent trend, even if it almost certainly is not?Sailor36https://www.blogger.com/profile/12145122569746223521noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-55371499880893168682017-08-31T06:27:37.683-07:002017-08-31T06:27:37.683-07:00I suggest that anyone who reads Don Easterbrook s...I suggest that anyone who reads Don Easterbrook should regard him with the same sort of outright cynicism that we reserve for Roy SpencerBruce Kayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11070247298371179095noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-17880818822184797712017-08-30T23:15:35.091-07:002017-08-30T23:15:35.091-07:00The government gives billions and billions of doll...The government gives billions and billions of dollars a year out to "scientists" who say its real. Look at the founder of the weather channel. He explains itAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09559717409648923936noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-72778677849160044962017-08-30T23:13:58.689-07:002017-08-30T23:13:58.689-07:00They have been shrinking for 10,000 years... Its n...They have been shrinking for 10,000 years... Its nothing out of the ordinary really. Its just made a big deal now for no reasonAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09559717409648923936noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-86399915503989860722017-08-30T23:11:04.697-07:002017-08-30T23:11:04.697-07:00Well.. CO2 has been proven to be a non free house ...Well.. CO2 has been proven to be a non free house warming gas. And the thing you shard is untrue. CO2 went from around 200 PPM to 420PPM in the last 100 years and the earth temperature trend has gone down rather then up over the last 5,000 years.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09559717409648923936noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-409833354489891102017-08-30T23:08:23.605-07:002017-08-30T23:08:23.605-07:00Thank you... Temperatures have been going up for 1...Thank you... Temperatures have been going up for 10,000 years.. And they r going up at a lesser and lesser rateAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09559717409648923936noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-11373113030020222522017-08-30T14:51:18.068-07:002017-08-30T14:51:18.068-07:00Sailor36:
I have not read that book, but I am aw...Sailor36: <br /><br />I have not read that book, but I am aware of the documented glacier advances that occurred between approximately 1930 and 1980. The advances, however, were not very substantial. What's different about the recent recession of nearly every lower 48 Glacier since 1978 is the rate at which it is happening. In the 2014-15 summer alone, Cascade Glaciers lost as much as 5% of their total ice volume! <br /><br />This is a great documented ongoing study:<br /><br />http://www.nichols.edu/departments/Glacier/<br /><br />As far as I know from the literature, and from talking with glaciologist colleagues, is that the only glaciers that experienced advance over the past 30 years have been the Emmons on the East side of Rainier, as well as Crater Glacier inside Mt. Saint Helens. The Emmons advanced during the 1990's because of a massive rockfall off of Little Tahoma Peak that blanketed the lower terminus zones in tens of feet of rock. This insulated the glacier for years, preventing melting. This advance however has since stopped, and the glacier is now rapidly receding and in a state of collapse at its lower elevations. The Crater Glacier is the fastest growing body of ice on the planet, but is a geologic anomaly, because it is so protected inside the crater, and is fed with tremendous avalanche accumulation. <br /><br />In terms of overall Cascade Glacier volume being "much more extensive" later in the 20th century than in the beginning, this isn't entirely accurate. There was advance because of very mild cooling, but from what my research friends are telling me who work on this stuff, those advances have been far exceeded by the recent and rapid retreat that began in 1980. <br /><br />Interesting stuff. Russmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09793156892413087319noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-57738512473260606302017-08-30T09:32:39.788-07:002017-08-30T09:32:39.788-07:00Late to comment, but, my farm boy logic agrees wit...Late to comment, but, my farm boy logic agrees with what cliff is suggesting.<br /><br />Like this year the overall precipitation average for the wet season and dry season is quite normal, Dispit a record wet winter and record dry summer. <br /><br />More extream atmospheric rivers make alot of sense!<br /><br />Organic Farmerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08694548750704036717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-50360845061207021062017-08-29T20:36:28.937-07:002017-08-29T20:36:28.937-07:00Cliff, Its good to see all this detail, but how m...Cliff, Its good to see all this detail, but how meaningful is it really? You said that GCM's have little skill at predicting regional climate changes. They are not that great at predicting even global average temperatures. That's not surprising given the turbulent nature of the atmosphere and oceans and how complex the system is.<br /><br />Seems to me we should prepare for climate change as we prepare for extreme weather events. Build robustness in infrastructure, stop subsidizing building at low elevations next to oceans and Puget Sound, etc. We should do those things anyway regardless of how serious climate change turns out to be.David Younghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17029429374522399227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-82607427104642880332017-08-29T16:02:41.687-07:002017-08-29T16:02:41.687-07:00What about the contribution of the Pacific Decadal...What about the contribution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)? We've been in the "warm" phase for almost 40 years now and one would think normal oscillation should soon lead us into a "cool" phase. How are the impacts of climate change in the decades ahead going to be influenced by this underlying natural variability? Do the models take this into account? Or how much might the warming change itself disrupt or override these cycles?Chrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09745819547779191619noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-45151916740434899172017-08-29T15:08:01.004-07:002017-08-29T15:08:01.004-07:00I don't have any quibble with the technical po...I don't have any quibble with the technical points made in this survey of Pacific NW climate scenario. Our proximity to the enormous cool reservoir of the NE Pacific Ocean gives us a buffer that most of the rest of the county does not enjoy.<br /><br />But that does not imply that the Pacific Northwest will escape disastrous degradation from climate change. Granted, it will not be a direct effect, like Yuma AZ or Houston TX are likely to see. Rather, our disaster will be that the Pacific Northwest is part of extensive natural ecosystems and political orders that will be hammered elsewhere by climate change, and the hurt will spill over to us. <br /><br />For example, suppose that the Pacific NW retains an equable climate, easy on the human metabolism, and kind to agriculture. But at the same time, huge populations across the "sunbelt" will be on the road again, as environmental refugees from a southern-tier climate shift that is not congenial for human metabolism. And the San Joaquin Valley's agriculture stands to be nuked by climate change. So, tens of millions of American citizens, and a vast agricultural deficit, will seek to relocate here. <br /><br />And did I mention Mexico and Central America? Are those good people just going to stoically accept their fate as environmental victims and wither-in-place where they currently live? I don't think so. Rather, there will be a huge influx of environmental refugees diffusing northward. <br /><br />So, bottom line, even as we continue OK in our climate in the coming century, the disaster unfolding for the South, the Southwest, southern California, Mexico, and Central America makes it likely that the Pacific NW will be a destination for tens of millions of environmental refugees, perhaps more. Such a number will swamp the region's ability to live sustainably, which we are already losing even at our "low" population.<br /><br />There are no private reserves for the lucky few in a climate-warming future. Humans are incredibly plucky and determined to pursue their personal survival and family survival.<br /><br />Celebration of our region's unique situation vis a vis global warming should not cause us to imagine that we will be left to live here undisturbed. <br /><br />Mi casa e su casa.Abe Jacobsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00332896461501944728noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-44621050125165191322017-08-29T13:34:37.396-07:002017-08-29T13:34:37.396-07:00Russell Cunningham, You wrote, "Glacier retre...Russell Cunningham, You wrote, "Glacier retreat, and glacier disappearance must be addressed..."<br /><br />What do you suggest?<br /><br />You also wrote, "Just since 2006 I've documented a 300 foot recession of Roosevelt glacier alone,..."<br />You should read Easterbrook's book, which contains photographs showing the Roosevelt glacier above the two ledges that you must know about, taken in 1962. The Coleman Glacier terminus was farther downslope.<br />In 1947, the terminus of Roosevelt Glacier was considerably upslope from where it is today, well above both ledges. <br />I have photos taken in 2015 showing it at the upper ledge, but the book contains photos that demonstrate clearly how much the glacier has advanced and receded. Sailor36https://www.blogger.com/profile/12145122569746223521noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-68024377917392755062017-08-29T12:12:43.985-07:002017-08-29T12:12:43.985-07:00Michael Boyd,
Glacial recession? I suggest that y...Michael Boyd,<br />Glacial recession? I suggest that you purchase and read this: https://www.amazon.com/Mount-Baker-Eruptions-Glaciations-Easterbrook/dp/0692620745<br />The facts are somewhat more complicated than you might have thought.Sailor36https://www.blogger.com/profile/12145122569746223521noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-55463642357258034052017-08-29T11:56:15.013-07:002017-08-29T11:56:15.013-07:00Michael Boyd makes a great point:
What is the ex...Michael Boyd makes a great point: <br /><br />What is the exact mechanism driving mountain glacier recession? If decreasing snowpack is not the culprit (yet), then the only other possible mechanism is increasing summer melt? From a mass balance perspective, it has to either be decreasing snow accumulation, or increased rate of melt. <br /><br />Cliff: What data do you have on summer maximal temperatures? The graph that shows "number of days per year hotter than 90 degrees" would indicate that we have seen increasing numbers of super hot summer days. Could this alone be the culprit to glacier retreat? <br /><br />I personally have documented profound changes in the terminus zones of the Coleman, Roosevelt, and Easton Glaciers on Mount Baker. Just since 2006 I've documented a 300 foot recession of Roosevelt glacier alone, as well as higher elevation glacial thinning. There are rock outcroppings visible now, that were under dozens of feet of glacier ice, as recently as 10 years ago! <br /><br />Glacier retreat, and glacier disappearance must be addressed...Russmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09793156892413087319noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-37470298781516999042017-08-29T10:22:43.321-07:002017-08-29T10:22:43.321-07:00For those of you saying this post is pure propagan...For those of you saying this post is pure propaganda, please do something for all of us so that we can all attempt to feel slightly LESS DUMB just by reading your comment: <br /><br />Lay it out for us. Explain how in THE HELL any scientist, Cliff Mass included, stands to benefit from sharing their research on climate warming? HOW THE HELL is this propaganda?? Do you really think these scientists are making millions of dollars? I heard one genius say, "Its that powerful green lobby that's profiting so much from global warming". Like seriously, powerful green lobby?? What in the hell is wrong with you people? <br /><br />DRYSIDECOUG: <br /><br />You don't see the profound lack of logic and evidence based thinking in your argument, do you? You do realize that you mentioned irrigation, right? Without that massive irrigation system in place, Eastern Wa. wouldn't grow a single apple. You represent our problem: Small-thinking uneducated STUPID people, who make America Dumber. You ONLY view the world from your own little biased microcosm, and you don't try to understand the larger world, nor do you care to. Russmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09793156892413087319noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-91689783334249644402017-08-29T09:43:42.725-07:002017-08-29T09:43:42.725-07:00I'm a diversified subsistence farmer & try...I'm a diversified subsistence farmer & trying to plan for crop infrastructure for winter growing plus next year. It sounds like this year so far might be a decent example of what to expect, i.e. long wet winters, mostly above freezing, a dank late start to spring, then flip a switch to long hot & dry summers. We're already using gravity drip watering systems as much as possible, but will add more rainwater catchment & possibly an in-ground pond for summer use. Tilling will need to be done in the fall before the ground is too saturated. Winter crops will need to wear layered outfits, just like Cascadian hikers. <br />Wow.Joannahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02788312334364951442noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-56234208131324161982017-08-29T09:13:37.711-07:002017-08-29T09:13:37.711-07:00Michael Boyd - I've had the same question for ...Michael Boyd - I've had the same question for a long time and wish Cliff would address it. Data I have looked at indicates that the earth's temperature has been in a range of +/- 1 deg. C since the last ice age. I don't quite recall how he stated it, but in Cliff's book he seems to imply that the glaciers that exist today are remnants of the last ice age and the mean temperature that the earth stabilized at is too high to sustain the glaciers. So they could be in a very term decline independent of recent climate change.eprmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12157800577391712151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-35995327861240708472017-08-29T07:38:45.044-07:002017-08-29T07:38:45.044-07:00Whats the latest expert consensus on the lazy jet ...Whats the latest expert consensus on the lazy jet stream theory? Looks like our intransigent blocking ridge is expected to hold a while yet.<br />Bruce Kayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11070247298371179095noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-16711140014964739762017-08-29T04:32:46.138-07:002017-08-29T04:32:46.138-07:00Given the lack of statistically significant warmin...Given the lack of statistically significant warming trend in the Pacific Northwest, it would be interesting if at some point this blog could address glacial recession in the Cascades and what is driving that phenomenon. Unless there's either more heat or less precipitation, I don't understand why all the local glaciers are shrinking. What am I missing?Moihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10194400184830987592noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-24139560501149890802017-08-29T03:37:59.833-07:002017-08-29T03:37:59.833-07:00I agree with J, pure propaganda.
Here in Eastern W...I agree with J, pure propaganda.<br />Here in Eastern Washington we were once a dry bunchgrass desert. With Grand Coulee Dam and the Columbia Basin Irrigation Project we now have a breadbasket that feeds the World. We also have laws that require farmers to minimize dust in their farming operations by spraying water on access roads.<br /><br />And the wildlife in Eastern Washington has flourished because of man's agricultural development of the Columbia Basin. We are now a major fly way of migratory waterfowl.<br /><br />I'd be more worried about the BIG EARTHQUAKE that will eventually SHAKE Western Washington. Then your roadways will be inaccessible which will lead to chaos. DRYSIDECOUGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17291579619178076586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-59123259117578439852017-08-28T22:28:41.911-07:002017-08-28T22:28:41.911-07:00But I thought the science was settled. But I thought the science was settled. Rose Doctorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04086470037950235196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-61977156371440084012017-08-28T21:59:22.024-07:002017-08-28T21:59:22.024-07:00Thank you Cliff, for covering the beginning stages...Thank you Cliff, for covering the beginning stages of runaway global warming. Your predictions seem on the safe side, which is understandable given the conservative nature of scientists. The positive feedback loops are hard to predict, but as they become the overriding factor in warming, we will begin to realize we underestimated their impact. Its amazing that our frozen tundra can keep all that gas underground. Once you take the amazingly complicated stability out our climate, things you never imagined will begin to happen. It's a big screen to watch and it will be a spectacular unfolding of events. TheWildLinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03939294869797365542noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-28876717679783296372017-08-28T14:04:33.969-07:002017-08-28T14:04:33.969-07:00Rebecca - the story does not change if you look at...Rebecca - the story does not change if you look at earlier years. Data for Puget Sound lowlands goes back to around 1895. The website to look at the data can be founded here; https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us/45/3/tavg/12/12/1895-2017?base_prd=true&firstbaseyear=1901&lastbaseyear=2000<br />eprmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12157800577391712151noreply@blogger.com