tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post623380956889526674..comments2024-03-28T23:07:35.632-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Time to Replace the National Hurricane Center's Forecast ConeCliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-10275682982574139242015-11-09T14:02:44.065-08:002015-11-09T14:02:44.065-08:00I think the cone is useful for those who want a si...I think the cone is useful for those who want a simple answer (the voting public), but the ensemble tracks is obviously much better for those of us who like to get at least a glimpse at some data.<br />Showing both would be great, perhaps for a 5-10 yr transition period.<br />Thanks CliffIsaac Molitchhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17273963996409560896noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-85207885427371855362015-11-09T07:25:00.829-08:002015-11-09T07:25:00.829-08:00I think blending the cone and the ensemble tracks ...I think blending the cone and the ensemble tracks is pretty straightforward. The cone would cover the max edges of the ensembles, and have a color gradient showing the averages of the ensembles. Red in the middle if/where they are more average thru to violet on the outer edges. They also could fade red thru violet for future days uncertainties. That's sort what I think the NHC new approach graphic tried to do, but it's... muddy.<br /><br />That would work quite well for the 10/1 11PM Joaquin ensemble where you can see most of the tracks are similar. Visually I can see 2 similar sets of average courses, and the cone would be maybe 20 degrees wide.<br /><br />It would also really show how uncertain things were for the 9/30 5PM ensembles. The cone would be near 90 degrees, and almost no similar tracks to average to a 'hotter' color.AndrewMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07373428764180673188noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-23952028607839053982015-11-09T06:56:15.095-08:002015-11-09T06:56:15.095-08:00I like the 'cone' a lot. I have always in...I like the 'cone' a lot. I have always interpreted as something like a 90% confidence interval w/ the other 10% outside the cone. I could believe that somebody looking in a newspaper wouldn't think that. Also, looking at cones compared to ensemble forecasts makes me think it's not at all responsive to probability density, so maybe the way they've been doing it is really bad after all. But I think the cone concept could be salvaged by making it large enough to encompass actual uncertainty (even if that makes it look like the image-makers truly don't know, which they don't). You could also have a 2-step cone, one including all models and an inner including X% of them.<br /><br />But one or 2 cones is definitely better than a zillion lines each with no error. Plus, you get cone art:<br /><br />http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2015/10/big-storm-pound-bc-coast-thanksgiving-weekend/AdrianShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10363172866314211427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-74702740705025656772015-11-09T00:14:18.665-08:002015-11-09T00:14:18.665-08:00I don't see how they could go to a forecast wi...I don't see how they could go to a forecast with more uncertainty. The media and the climate alarmism movement needs the cones to breathlessly report every storm as sensational and caused by climate change. A more reasonable, measured and scientific approach does not fit the scare tactic agenda.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02059221822159483655noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-72851244367979629942015-11-08T11:20:47.830-08:002015-11-08T11:20:47.830-08:00I've watched the cones as well as ensembles. I...I've watched the cones as well as ensembles. I know the ensembles are closer to reality and the cones are just a simplified minimal possibility that may not happen and regardless of that, they don't use the same cone, they change them as well.<br /><br />They need to make The Cone Of Uncertainty look more like and explosion. Howboutcha!https://www.blogger.com/profile/17549770182919930048noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-72215789431343390112015-11-08T09:01:43.175-08:002015-11-08T09:01:43.175-08:00The Coneheads caught me by surprise while I was sc...The Coneheads caught me by surprise while I was scrolling down and reading the article. It was very funny.<br /><br />The article certainly made me smarter but there's not much an average person can do about this so I'm guessing much of the article is aimed at the weather community that reads everyone else's blogs.<br /><br />I found your suggested formats very easy to understand.GFKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06660538777819392689noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-78588753342100630952015-11-08T08:30:20.119-08:002015-11-08T08:30:20.119-08:00I think communicating weather and storm uncertaint...I think communicating weather and storm uncertainty would be a great doctoral candidate cross-collaboration project between the various schools at UW. Cool post.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-22302313111626569992015-11-08T07:36:32.069-08:002015-11-08T07:36:32.069-08:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Peter E in North Beachhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05846787216905879638noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-42518228592726421272015-11-08T04:32:29.173-08:002015-11-08T04:32:29.173-08:00Other than to say, "We don't know," ...Other than to say, "We don't know," it is difficult to communicate uncertainty to the general public in a way that fits into a 30 second video bite. My vote is to publish the ensemble forecast as it gives the public all the information available and over time they will decide best how to use it.<br /><br />There may be some reluctance inside the NWS to let the public know how uncertain their forecasts are.<br /><br />Perhaps private users (airlines for example) have ways of presenting data and making decisions that we should look at.<br />typingtalkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09572305719782041883noreply@blogger.com