tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post6400982075657133376..comments2024-03-27T21:02:08.203-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: To Become World Class, US Operational Numerical Weather Prediction Needs a Strategic PlanCliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-34894185412965505842016-07-29T22:23:58.994-07:002016-07-29T22:23:58.994-07:00punchrun, that is part of the problem. until we ge...punchrun, that is part of the problem. until we get not only more scientific literacy among leaders, but also get them thinking in 10-15 year periods and actually be willing to stick to them, we are going to potentially drop a tier in the F1-WEC-Nascar race that is weather modeling. <br /><br />Maybe if we can describe these priorities in terms of say motorsports to these congresspeople, they might be more willing to listen. after all, we have a lot of damn good forecasters on tap here in the US (thought of like drivers). But without agreement and planning from the engineers (researchers) & mechanics (modelers) from a more centralized team manager and owner (weather enterprise leadership), the best drivers will only pull out so much performance no matter what the skill. And even if the drivers can do well, we need to be sure they look towards a team title, not take each other out using real stupid moves (insane and unrealistic products), pit screw-ups (bad analyses, and mis-use of data), and driver infighting (infighting among different companies/entities within the enterprise above and beyond normal competition). <br /><br />sound too complicated, or too plain-spoken? James Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03381251542784656890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-60137463755203716742016-07-16T19:16:41.736-07:002016-07-16T19:16:41.736-07:00What entity would conceive the need for and direct...What entity would conceive the need for and direct the development of such a plan? A previous commenter noted the scientific illiteracy of the American body politic. I think this has been documented elsewhere, but also think we can see a similar phenomenon among or elected representatives, at least I seem to frequently hear of Congressmen denying fundamental tenets of science, and it is well known that science oriented advisory boards to Congress have been eliminated. Are we seeing the fallout from this withdrawal into a fantasy world on the part of much of America?punchnrunhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12522169001909044271noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-61087728432393117392016-07-16T10:49:13.843-07:002016-07-16T10:49:13.843-07:00A recent book, "UN ----- CERTAINTY, The Soul ...A recent book, "UN ----- CERTAINTY, The Soul of Modeling, Probability & Statistics": http://wmbriggs.com/post/19253/Nanoo Visotorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10992892573232232096noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-65468956188269444922016-07-15T06:54:40.219-07:002016-07-15T06:54:40.219-07:00@ first need to know exactly where you are going.
...@ first need to know exactly where you are going.<br />If that is in regards to what sort of forecast accuracy is acceptable, I agree.<br /><br />Given the complexities touched on, that may Not be completely feasible. Pareto, or some similar rule-of-thumb may be a more useful touchstone. What ought to be known before reaching for 80% , is whether the result will be close enough to get the rest of the way (whether that be to 100%, 90%, or whatever). Also, if and when 80% can be reached, it may be recognized that further improvement is becoming exponentially more difficult...<br />Nanoo Visotorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10992892573232232096noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-32901011860384092332016-07-14T20:31:57.579-07:002016-07-14T20:31:57.579-07:00This "rise to the bottom" seems to be a ...This "rise to the bottom" seems to be a disturbing, yet distinctly American passion toward the destruction of scientifically-backed processes and improvements.<br /><br />The general population gets basic science facts wrong: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/09/14/does-waters-boiling-point-change-with-altitude-americans-arent-sure/<br /><br />There are continued positive attitudes and what appears likely to be hopes that technology and science can "improve individual's lives": https://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind14/index.cfm/chapter-7/c7h.htm<br /><br />On the other hand, knowledge of the scientific method is almost entirely missing (and the 2016 version of their site seems to lack basic functionality, so the best I can do here is http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/2016/nsb20161/uploads/1/nsb20161.pdf "26% understanding of scientific study (2014)", "understanding of experiment (34% 2012, 53% 2014)", "concern for the environment 34%", )<br /><br />With such basic misunderstanding of what constitutes a "scientific theory", the methods of science, certainty, and correlation, is it any wonder that an organization, which will necessarily be comprised of a number of non-scientists, is unable to fully grasp the benefits and requirements of a scientific strategic plan? Large, complex systems, or those that are highly-self-interactive, seem least likely to be understood in any field (and I'd be happy if anyone can provide a reference on that one, or do I need to run that research myself).Brianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14433834468021679601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-28578311485906701682016-07-14T10:36:41.493-07:002016-07-14T10:36:41.493-07:00I agree with Robert, above. Please keep talking li...I agree with Robert, above. Please keep talking like this!Jonathanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12067882962688643313noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-75181619727560263702016-07-13T21:10:47.363-07:002016-07-13T21:10:47.363-07:00Keep talking like this and you're likely to ge...Keep talking like this and you're likely to get drafted into the NWS...Robert Salnickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17236481906016930762noreply@blogger.com