tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post6418206482483738395..comments2024-03-28T23:07:35.632-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: The Reason for the Extreme Warmth on Monday--And My Podcast on the Heat Wave is OutCliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger47125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-7396982082058363012021-06-27T08:35:02.375-07:002021-06-27T08:35:02.375-07:00JB...that is not true. I have written several pap...JB...that is not true. I have written several papers published in the peer-reviewed literature showing that there is no evidence of global warming increasing waveiness around here. Furthermore, that theory has been thoroughly debunked in the scientific literature.Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-23448314310907578012021-06-27T06:12:18.036-07:002021-06-27T06:12:18.036-07:00What Cliff didn’t explore in his analysis is the w...What Cliff didn’t explore in his analysis is the wavy jet stream. Just as extreme waviness brought arctic air to Texas last winter, a similar waviness is bringing Texas air to the PNW today. To see the jet stream go to earth.nullschool.net, hit the “earth” menu and then select Height at 250 hPa. Why is the jet stream so wavy? The jet stream is powered by the Arctic-equatorial heat differential. With climate change, the Arctic has warmed 10X faster than the equator, lowering the differential and making the jet stream weaker. Sorry but this has the fingerprints of climate change all over it. Better get used to a world of record breaking weather extremes.JB Seattlehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06657165719630483665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-88543140801678726452021-06-27T06:01:34.632-07:002021-06-27T06:01:34.632-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.JB Seattlehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06657165719630483665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-13656078302449096192021-06-26T22:33:56.590-07:002021-06-26T22:33:56.590-07:00If the Cascade downslope is such a big factor, why...If the Cascade downslope is such a big factor, why are we seeing such high temps in Pendleton, on the other side? Downslope from the Blue Mountains?Anthony Effingerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06324759596493068478noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-22019773548145758142021-06-26T12:40:47.500-07:002021-06-26T12:40:47.500-07:00Cliff, is it possible this weather phenomenon is d...Cliff, is it possible this weather phenomenon is driven by a weakening of the Hadley, Ferrell and Polar cells? Is it possible this could recur?Duane and Lindahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12666710383577174416noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-27451542145134287792021-06-26T12:27:21.324-07:002021-06-26T12:27:21.324-07:00Keep in mind that when it comes to weather, the st...Keep in mind that when it comes to weather, the statistical climatological mean is not usually what you actually get. Just look at a time series of daily high temperatures versus "normal" high temperatures. Given this, should you really expect climate change to be realized as the same delta T everywhere, at all times? The difference between the last ice age and today was 6C. Obviously, it was an entirely different planet--it wasn't just that the same weather fluctuations we have today occurred just with 6C lower temperatures!Brandon Kernshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09412796194847871841noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-60092647645921385152021-06-26T12:20:08.562-07:002021-06-26T12:20:08.562-07:00Cliff, is it possible this weather phenomenon is d...Cliff, is it possible this weather phenomenon is driven by a weakening of the Hadley cells and Ferrell cells and the Polar cell? If so, can this reasonably be expected to recur?Duane and Lindahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12666710383577174416noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-65350368433283233822021-06-26T12:16:31.277-07:002021-06-26T12:16:31.277-07:00I find it interesting that the setup for this heat...I find it interesting that the setup for this heat wave, namely high pressure over the interior BC desert blowing down to low pressure to our southwest, is similar to our classic winter snow setup. Of course there, the low is not a thermal trough but instead a juicy low full of oceanic moisture, and the Fraser outflow is so cold that adiabatic heating is overwhelmed, but the geographic comparison seems pretty close to me.herrbrahmshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08308204686231352936noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-81506141177759825522021-06-26T11:45:04.611-07:002021-06-26T11:45:04.611-07:00It's getting bad, I tell ya. Saw a dog chasing...It's getting bad, I tell ya. Saw a dog chasing a cat and they were both walking. Estoy_Listohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09535132933228608287noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-57340667915979050142021-06-26T10:49:24.693-07:002021-06-26T10:49:24.693-07:00Russia is also in the grips of an unprecedented re...Russia is also in the grips of an unprecedented record-breaking heat wave. Is this related to the same effects of the jet stream waves being jostled by that pacific tropical storm, like a downstream effect?Katgrrlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02892122287620757252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-86913164448523376692021-06-26T10:48:36.172-07:002021-06-26T10:48:36.172-07:00I came here to make a similar comment. I noticed C...I came here to make a similar comment. I noticed Cliff said that this is not related to climate change... That a lot of this can be explained with normal variations. But the root cause, tropical system interacting with the jet stream in the Pacific, I wonder is that a normal variation or a result of climate change?Katgrrlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02892122287620757252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-14242885565860725972021-06-26T09:47:04.962-07:002021-06-26T09:47:04.962-07:00There will be an amazing cool down at the end of t...There will be an amazing cool down at the end of the heat wave a strong sea breeze will come in the temperature might drop as much as 50 degrees overnight. The cool down might also break some records.Storm1https://www.blogger.com/profile/15032533387012414371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-40262606616070975352021-06-26T09:44:05.966-07:002021-06-26T09:44:05.966-07:00The heat index will be several degrees above the t...The heat index will be several degrees above the temperature, if the temperature is 110 it might feel more like 115 because of the humidity. Normally we get a dry heat temperatures this high and humidity at the same time is inconceivable. Storm1https://www.blogger.com/profile/15032533387012414371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-59024931148311342322021-06-26T09:41:47.783-07:002021-06-26T09:41:47.783-07:00This heat is un-believable. I grew up in Californi...This heat is un-believable. I grew up in California where heat like this was common but we could retreat into an air conditioned house. I'm afraid for all the people who don't have AC, healthy people will be miserable but ok, however this could be alittle dangerous for someone with health issues. I'm also afraid that the heat+southeast winds will create a firestorm. I'm hopeful that everything is still green enough to avoid a major fire outbreak will see. My sister is visiting for the 4th of July and I was hoping the air would be clean enough for good hiking views and I could show her a real driveway fireworks show. She lives in California where fireworks are banned so this would be a real treat. I would light the fireworks in the middle of the street and have garden hose and a few buckets ready not taking any chances when things are so dry. Storm1https://www.blogger.com/profile/15032533387012414371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-52658053766996053122021-06-26T08:03:05.453-07:002021-06-26T08:03:05.453-07:00Embellishing your sentence with words like "B...Embellishing your sentence with words like "Bayesian" in this case doesn't do enough to make a strong statement.<br /><br />But fine, I can use that word too. From a Bayesian point of view, shouldn't natural causes be the most likely explanation of climate change, given that climate has always changed?<br /><br />Also, climate change is not disputed. Forests used to grow where there are now deserts, etc, etc.<br /><br />In 1928, a heat wave in Washington State set the current record high of 118F. Climate change caused that also. But natural climate change, or man-made climate change? In 1928? <br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-42459955451490660922021-06-26T03:25:45.240-07:002021-06-26T03:25:45.240-07:00Hi Cliff
What I find amazing is, were this January...Hi Cliff<br />What I find amazing is, were this January, we might be talking about an extraordinary amount of snow, if I have understood your analysis of the ingredients needed for that to occur. High pressure in the interior, low pressure approaching the coast, except that this would induce a Fraser Valley outflow event. mdehhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00235929313691325193noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-51100350991878343522021-06-26T02:03:01.200-07:002021-06-26T02:03:01.200-07:00Good question. I recall we had a huge ridge, but n...Good question. I recall we had a huge ridge, but not a deep low off the coast to draw air from the south east. That’s my best guess. I hope Cliff will chime in here.Wardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02414198550493495245noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-44936724501065952732021-06-25T23:31:19.889-07:002021-06-25T23:31:19.889-07:00He didn't avoid it. He researched this exact t...He didn't avoid it. He researched this exact topic and published this conclusion in a peer-reviewed journal: "There is no evidence that such a wave pattern is anything other than natural variability."Trenton Lipscombhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04780417355819539804noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-88276770030866220962021-06-25T23:28:46.259-07:002021-06-25T23:28:46.259-07:00Cliff would disagree: "There is no evidence t...Cliff would disagree: "There is no evidence that such a wave pattern is anything other than natural variability (I have done research on this issue and published in the peer-reviewed literature on this exact topic). So without global warming, a location that was 104F would have been 102F. Still a severe heat wave, just slightly less intense."<br /><br />Fundamentally, the cause of conditions leading to this event are "natural variability."Trenton Lipscombhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04780417355819539804noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-25389890132750023912021-06-25T23:00:05.428-07:002021-06-25T23:00:05.428-07:00Thanks for you analysis. I feel that I learn some...Thanks for you analysis. I feel that I learn something new every time I read your blog.banjo killdeerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15855649963579600764noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-4974532418958652422021-06-25T22:29:44.641-07:002021-06-25T22:29:44.641-07:00To be fair, Cliff did address this in his last pos...To be fair, Cliff did address this in his last post. He said that global warming is almost certainly contributing to this event but stopped short of saying it caused it. That more or less jives with what other climate scientists have said; that global warming is making extreme events more likely or more severe. His comments fulfill the later part of that sentence. Brianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12676009738981226234noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-17010298422457833092021-06-25T22:09:29.241-07:002021-06-25T22:09:29.241-07:00A little bit like a Simoom wind. I'm praying ...A little bit like a Simoom wind. I'm praying that we don't have a fire start while the easterly heat surge is occurring. If we do, it'll likely spell real trouble. Scott Garnetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12658510458802628751noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-64184707447092695562021-06-25T22:05:18.625-07:002021-06-25T22:05:18.625-07:00The ground still has the moisture from recent June...The ground still has the moisture from recent June precip. I think this was noted in one of Cliff’s recent blogs. 49thgirlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09400917767841724098noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-68383908719407376922021-06-25T21:14:13.429-07:002021-06-25T21:14:13.429-07:00I am now hoping for a low weather front to move in...I am now hoping for a low weather front to move inshore by wed or thursday, bringing with it some nasty-wet weather...bumping in to our seared state just might set a storm like this off...well, I can dream at least!curbozer boomerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17736912740094052121noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-32775661934430245422021-06-25T20:12:21.841-07:002021-06-25T20:12:21.841-07:00I noticed that you have carefully avoided attribut...I noticed that you have carefully avoided attribution to global warming, and I get it. Weather and climate are VERY different beasts. However, with the "extreme event" label on this weather pattern, you know it will be counted as such. However, despite disambiguation, it's hard not to think -- here we are. Another extreme event. What will it take before people understand what's happening? <br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08132146175736671448noreply@blogger.com