tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post7138103922135008291..comments2024-03-28T23:07:35.632-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Snow Post Mortem and a View to the Next SnowstormCliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger56125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-21366325629271129002019-02-05T11:15:24.003-08:002019-02-05T11:15:24.003-08:00Thanks Cliff. I was able to predict from your blog...Thanks Cliff. I was able to predict from your blog posts who would be out and who would be in to work at my company on N. Pacific Street in Wallingford on Monday and who would be out today due to ice. My staff live north and south of Wallingford, from Lynnwood to Renton.I've followed along especially since I caught wind of upcoming possible snow so I could have some prediction work load wise for this week. @taschttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03756599721615953547noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-44921691169594761662019-02-05T02:17:27.495-08:002019-02-05T02:17:27.495-08:00Hmm..after living in the PNW for 65 yrs. my rule o...Hmm..after living in the PNW for 65 yrs. my rule of thumb has always been if they report that there is just a slim chance of a snow event...we get dumped on. Conversely, predictions of a whopper often dont pan out...😊Coriehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03367466965508968800noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-54838391710099080022019-02-04T20:08:28.262-08:002019-02-04T20:08:28.262-08:00I agree with all of the above. I hope we're be...I agree with all of the above. I hope we're beyond looking for a scapegoat!Ruthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07235947677934900469noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-13838392070880933322019-02-04T18:07:28.587-08:002019-02-04T18:07:28.587-08:00When the forcast predicts more damaging weather ev...When the forcast predicts more damaging weather events that turn out to be mild people complain too. The world is full of experts. Kevinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16311588618879024857noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-42218223911413525802019-02-04T17:36:07.930-08:002019-02-04T17:36:07.930-08:00I grew up in Seattle living there from the 1930s t...I grew up in Seattle living there from the 1930s to 1960 and nearby for most of the following years. Being interested in weather from early on, I followed the weather forecasts closely. Snow, being a relatively rare event, was seldom forecast accurately. I remember the big blizzard of Jan. 13, 1950. The forecast that morning was for snow changing to rain by afternoon with warming temperatures. After school that afternoon I walked home in about 12" of powder snow, blown into 2 foot drifts by 30 mph north winds and the temperature was 13 degrees when I got home. Now that was a major forecast bust. It is still difficult to accurately pin down snow events in the Seattle area, despite great improvements in computer models and the existence of satellite photos. It may always be thus, but thanks to Cliff Mass and other meteorologists at the University of Washington in their work in developing the current set of small-scale computerized models, the forecasts of snow and all other weather parameters in this tough-to-forecast area are much better than in the past. <br /><br />Jim Holcomb wxmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01191368119990215667noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-28420959278134207432019-02-04T15:50:35.838-08:002019-02-04T15:50:35.838-08:00maybe now that we're in the period of anthropo...maybe now that we're in the period of anthropogenic climate disruption, it's time to take more seriously those models (like the european one) which predict (accurately, it seems) more 'extreme' events than we might be used to here in the PNW....<br /><br />because the ability to forecast from the more 'conservative' models seems a tad inadequate now... that might be because we're no longer living in the world/climate system those models were built for... maybe the european model is more 'sensitive' to the new reality in which we find ourselves...<br /><br />just a thought...Sahilahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11610179287237833742noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-45719906147186564632019-02-04T15:43:00.603-08:002019-02-04T15:43:00.603-08:00Like DonB above, I'd really like a pointer to ...Like DonB above, I'd really like a pointer to that snow coverage map. And yes, 9 inches in the Woodinville area is what we got.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12310596250584502146noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-42893992047426338942019-02-04T15:36:17.326-08:002019-02-04T15:36:17.326-08:00Well said PBBallard.Well said PBBallard.Ironworker1994https://www.blogger.com/profile/14558080439495709105noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-58742370509380133852019-02-04T15:24:31.363-08:002019-02-04T15:24:31.363-08:00Forecast was for wind, cold and snow. That’s what ...Forecast was for wind, cold and snow. That’s what we got. Seems a little odd to be whining about minor misses when predicting the future. Have any of you seen a BBC UK national forecast? ‘Wintry showers on higher elevations across N England and Scotland’ is about as pinpoint as it gets. Somehow they manage and go about there day.PBBallardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03403010842724929002noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-44596521933784652102019-02-04T14:50:07.164-08:002019-02-04T14:50:07.164-08:00Both with wind gusts and now snow depth, there'...Both with wind gusts and now snow depth, there's a large area around Kent, mostly east and SE, that is completely unrepresented when looking at totals. <br /><br />The entire hwy 18 corridor has only 1 spot with a number. I'm in the lea hill area, and this reminds me of the recent wind storms where we had 60mph+ gusts, but it was not mentioned anywhere in the news or these wind maps. <br /><br />Now for snow as well. <br /><br />I'm curious why this area is lacking representation about these weather events. Is it a lack of weather related equipment for the area?Scott K.https://www.blogger.com/profile/10479671105606268397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-82674985946374086302019-02-04T14:10:38.194-08:002019-02-04T14:10:38.194-08:00They had salted bridges over the highway by 1pm ye...They had salted bridges over the highway by 1pm yesterday. There was salt all over Yesler into the ID. We know snow is hard to predict here. Kudos to you for tracking so many models and let us know how you came up with your prediction scientifically. Your audience is welcome to use the same evidence and come to a different conclusion, but they should not blame you for their lack of effort. Thank you for this sevice. Danahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06768950400729812896noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-3484930928067815632019-02-04T13:52:25.028-08:002019-02-04T13:52:25.028-08:00"SDOT is going to have to answer some tough q..."SDOT is going to have to answer some tough questions after this one."<br /><br />"a particularly brutal miss."<br /><br />"How could you possibly argue that this was forecast fairly successful?"<br /><br />Good grief, instead of rolling with a little inconvenience, and maybe even enjoying the beauty of the snow, people instead choose anger and start looking for the Bad Guy? What a way to go though life.John K.https://www.blogger.com/profile/03575682658318674003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-9620786558843631942019-02-04T13:46:21.652-08:002019-02-04T13:46:21.652-08:00Hmm, what is the Snowish word for “drizzle”? After...Hmm, what is the Snowish word for “drizzle”? After 20 years in Seattle, I only speak Rain, as well.Swarfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09969164425309947555noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-56979312491489772042019-02-04T13:36:50.924-08:002019-02-04T13:36:50.924-08:00SameSameMNoggle81https://www.blogger.com/profile/16877298436035042609noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-79332146797870958812019-02-04T13:32:56.505-08:002019-02-04T13:32:56.505-08:00I work in Green Lake and it was sticking there by ...I work in Green Lake and it was sticking there by 2pm yesterday. Here at home in Maple Valley, we've got 5" of light powdery snow that hasn't stopped since yesterday at 4pm, and a steady strong breeze. This is much more than I'd expected and I've lived here (Seattle and Maple Valley) my whole life.Jessicahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15490288883140388071noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-71298855453410237122019-02-04T13:21:39.912-08:002019-02-04T13:21:39.912-08:00I think you could fill Husky Stadium with big miss...I think you could fill Husky Stadium with big misses on lowland Puget Sound snow forecasts. Anyone who has lived here for a few years comes to learn that. It is usually either cold and dry or warm and wet. Because snow is a marginal event, local effects and minor changes in altitude can make a big difference in accumulations. So, when there is some snow in the forecast and it actually happens, I think they are doing pretty well by historical standards. We just don't get enough of it so that people and drivers get enough to experience to handle it well, so any snow makes for a lot of disruption. Expecting local governments that hardly ever see this to be perfect is not very realistic.MAC in Bellinghamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00951163853106956325noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-64025631654951929002019-02-04T13:13:22.621-08:002019-02-04T13:13:22.621-08:00I absolutely agree, sure it was a tough storm to p...I absolutely agree, sure it was a tough storm to predict but why the slow updates and lack of advisory when it became clear things could be serious.Shahobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15580766549990206028noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-44905411541617065422019-02-04T13:09:48.039-08:002019-02-04T13:09:48.039-08:00I’m surprised there was no discussion as to the “w...I’m surprised there was no discussion as to the “why” of the miss. The original forecast right up to the afternoon update called for mixed snow and rain. As opposed to the European model, which had mostly snow. Instead, it seemed like in many places it never rained, going straight from a thin icy sleet to wet snow. And the nighttime snow band that both models predicted was significantly stronger and longer than predictions. <br /><br />The was a Capital Hill Weather Gang blog (Washington Post) entry after a similar event in DC that talked about the difficulties in predicting mixed precipitation. Basically the snow/rain boundary is very sensitive to small changes in temp and pressure and therefore the maximum errors are magnified. <br /><br />That said, this was a bad miss. There should have been some warning 24 hrs out that this was in the realm of possibility. Particularly since daytime highs were correctly predicted to be solidly in the freezing range, meaning little to no help from Mother Nature melting snow. The lack of preparation has made what would be a very handleable event into a disaster. <br /><br />If the NWS had used the EMS forecast (low res and all), the roads would be salted and the plows would be out. And that’s what proves it’s a bad miss: the consequences. MarkGohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16098961413227384832noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-28084254331539051572019-02-04T12:43:20.022-08:002019-02-04T12:43:20.022-08:00Cliff, I'm a fan of your work and your efforts...Cliff, I'm a fan of your work and your efforts. But similar to Eric above...what separates pretty imprecise forecasts from just guessing? Or i guess better said, when the forecasts point to some number, say 1" along with some words about "with a lot of uncertainty", nobody listens to the latter part. So if you said, "we really don't know, but it might be 1 inch", isn't that a more realistic view of these snow events?<br /><br />And/or, "when it comes to snow events" we really don't know..GloomyGushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06921742625520401542noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-81020696070929249742019-02-04T12:26:50.127-08:002019-02-04T12:26:50.127-08:00Thanks for the bird report.Thanks for the bird report.Yaelahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14477355333990394423noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-74082795127719815702019-02-04T12:25:32.771-08:002019-02-04T12:25:32.771-08:00Fun for kids. Tough for parents.Fun for kids. Tough for parents.Yaelahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14477355333990394423noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-10054966412204230412019-02-04T12:19:10.983-08:002019-02-04T12:19:10.983-08:00Woof! I understand the difficulty in forecasting ...Woof! I understand the difficulty in forecasting PNW snow events, but this was a particularly brutal miss. For several days we were hearing about potential for an uncertain snow event, but forecasters insisted it was pretty sketchy and trace-3" at best, followed by some cold.<br /><br />I also understand it was Sunday (and Super Bowl Sunday as well) but it was snowing at 5 PM Sunday and really didn't stop for 18 hours, blanketing the entire Puget Sound area and creating treacherous driving conditions, and much lower temps than advertised. Even in the middle of the event, forecast updates were slow to update (or failed to update at all), and the winter weather advisory wasn't really posted/extended until after the window had practically closed.<br /><br />I got a gut feeling when it started snowing during the SB that the naysaying forecasts were wrong, and that gut feeling was more accurate than the sum of all forecasts that failed to recognize a snow event as it was already happening. Hard to call that a win, in my mind.<br /><br />It also seems like the forecasts caused WSDOT to prepare inadequately. Even at 9 am in Pierce County most major thoroughfares had not been plowed or deiced, which is completely unacceptable for this type of event. Akermaniachttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18061587026417729922noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-77251535183454326422019-02-04T12:16:39.202-08:002019-02-04T12:16:39.202-08:00Is this is case where the European model was more ...Is this is case where the European model was more accurate? Do you think it does tend to be more accurate for snow forecasts?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-61624032812066697612019-02-04T12:02:07.021-08:002019-02-04T12:02:07.021-08:00I got 6.5 inches by 8:10 AM today on the Bothell-M...I got 6.5 inches by 8:10 AM today on the Bothell-Mill Creek line.Anselhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13835758313287462921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-10507562119271214902019-02-04T11:46:18.852-08:002019-02-04T11:46:18.852-08:00still snowing at 11:45am in Seattle still snowing at 11:45am in Seattle Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06190882696873429302noreply@blogger.com