tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post7248522096890572820..comments2024-03-28T23:07:35.632-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Why is it so hard to forecast lowland snow?Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-61369120022509298272012-03-15T11:22:00.828-07:002012-03-15T11:22:00.828-07:00Cliff, if I change my opinion re: the impacts of m...Cliff, if I change my opinion re: the impacts of mankind on aggregate global warming, will you promise to cut back on the rain this week?!?!?!?!?<br /><br />Any updates re: the snowpack? I am sure with the last month of snow, we are definitely above normal for this time of year. What is the likelihood the ski resorts will remain open late this year given current models?<br /><br />Thanks for all of the updates!ryamkajrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08268910924570439599noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-1695902021868936072012-03-15T06:33:53.410-07:002012-03-15T06:33:53.410-07:00Having grown up in the Pacific Northwest, snow eve...Having grown up in the Pacific Northwest, snow events have always felt serendipitous to me. I remember those mornings as a child listening to the list of school closures on the radio and what a joy it was on those rare days when school was closed, the snow stuck, and all the neighborhood kids went to the hilly streets to lug our sleds and saucers up and slide down all day. Because it is difficult to forecast, it always feels somewhat special. :)Woodrathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02079958095305271932noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-65725502377802476632012-03-14T22:43:32.236-07:002012-03-14T22:43:32.236-07:00Excellent blog Professor Mass!Excellent blog Professor Mass!Charanjit Pablahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07218513541805542865noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-72848806236233364212012-03-14T21:50:20.683-07:002012-03-14T21:50:20.683-07:00I'm amazed that Tillamook and Newport, Oregon ...I'm amazed that Tillamook and Newport, Oregon got significant (6 inches plus) accumulating snow Monday, and we in Seattle didn't -- because it was too warm. <br /><br />So I'm learning to appreciate with how odd the snow patterns can be around here. (I'm from Maryland)Douglashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13400304542602805292noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-44753829310468368792012-03-14T17:55:01.642-07:002012-03-14T17:55:01.642-07:00Weather forecasting has come one heckuva long way ...Weather forecasting has come one heckuva long way in my 60 years of life, Cliff. You are correct. Snowfall is tough to forecast in Western Washington state. Heck, it is even tough to forecast in Yakima and Wenatchee because of the Cascade mountain rain shadow.<br /><br />You guys and gals have got it more together than many give you credit for. <br /><br />Jeez, when I lived in Yakima in the 50s and very early 60s, the forecasters would predict snow, and there would be nary a flake.<br /><br />The temp was right but the precip. was lacking. <br /><br />Seattle is the opposite much of the time.<br /><br />The general forecasts are GREATLY improved. Everywhere.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-67834805432142552782012-03-14T15:26:20.031-07:002012-03-14T15:26:20.031-07:00@Lance - looks to be University Way NE. Somewhere...@Lance - looks to be University Way NE. Somewhere in the 4300 block or so would be my guess.<br /><br />-Duvall JohnJohnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10214207272273323140noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-67355553952577749212012-03-14T15:14:07.634-07:002012-03-14T15:14:07.634-07:00[url="http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/imageoftheday....[url="http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/imageoftheday.php"]http://www.nnvl.noaa...ageoftheday.php[/url]<br /><br />Check the image for the 12th.richard583https://www.blogger.com/profile/00415086002282750839noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-42950915367986171312012-03-14T14:59:30.967-07:002012-03-14T14:59:30.967-07:00One of the long range 10 day outlooks (Weather Und...One of the long range 10 day outlooks (Weather Underground)has snow next week and wind chills of 19 degrees... and its not even April Fools Day!Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11774310210201172859noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-16007781647542520302012-03-14T14:21:49.738-07:002012-03-14T14:21:49.738-07:00The picture is University Way in the Seattle U-Dis...The picture is University Way in the Seattle U-District, looking north from NE 45 St.Bobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15342967219037330518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-34526826211186006752012-03-14T12:21:27.575-07:002012-03-14T12:21:27.575-07:00Where is that first picture taken at?Where is that first picture taken at?Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14119121675943204095noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-53299852277762545632012-03-14T12:19:19.600-07:002012-03-14T12:19:19.600-07:00"Meteorologists can get windstorm forecasts r..."Meteorologists can get windstorm forecasts right nearly all of the time. We hit the record high temperatures in July 2009 nearly dead on. We can give you a skillful forecast of a marine push in the summer."<br /><br />If this is true, why is the NOAA forecast so often inaccurate? When the 12 hour forecast can miss mark often it leads me to believe NOAA does not really think it is too important to provide quality services instead of token forecast to appear they are earning their taxpayer funded endeavors. If NOAA can not do better than provide very general computer generated forecast then maybe NOAA should step aside. Let another entity (private sector?)that values putting out a quality product take over instead of just providing "sleeping at the wheel" NOAA forecast.PMCDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15261686768417461969noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-16744826415661102542012-03-14T11:01:13.237-07:002012-03-14T11:01:13.237-07:00Nice explanation Cliff. Well done. Still, I'm ...Nice explanation Cliff. Well done. Still, I'm waiting for you to post on the incredibly dreary weather we've having. I don't know what an atmospheric scientist would say, but to me and every single person I know, it is dreadful. And this from dyed in the wool northwesterners.Brian W.https://www.blogger.com/profile/06251881214580527761noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-68506572128284113142012-03-14T10:13:40.319-07:002012-03-14T10:13:40.319-07:00Two points to add:
1. Variability in snow form ha...Two points to add: <br />1. Variability in snow form has tremendous influence too. Graupel requires more heat from the surface to melt than a delicate doily-like snowflake. PSCZ-generated and springtime convective squalls commonly start off with this precip type locally influencing the surface temps leading up to eventual snow & accumulation. Convection is notoriously hard to pinpoint, even in the plains the best we can really do is draw a box of relative-confidence around the feature... here we deal with the same thing... just colder and it produces our snow. <br />2. Communication method: our nuanced and extremely diverse local micro-climates are constantly changing in time. Weather features that generate our high-impact weather are hardly static in nature and do not operate or conform to 6hr forecast intervals. The timeline evolution of a storm event for a ground observer in Everett will often be very different from an observer in Bothell, and still further different in Issaquah, etc. 2-3min news segments that are digested by the public at large cannot cover the detail needed to highlight the 'true' forecast around here. Even IF we get better at pinning down snow, the delivery of such info, and manner it is received must be both unified, and more effectively disseminated to be oriented to accommodate the observer's point of view. <br /><br />More to your original point, this is especially the case here in the Pac NW where during high-impact events the differences are tattooed on the ground.MtnWxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14727884931447643104noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-67727948041557642602012-03-14T10:00:09.547-07:002012-03-14T10:00:09.547-07:00Good article Cliff. Lots of snow just east of Mt. ...Good article Cliff. Lots of snow just east of Mt. Vernon yesterday. Several inches. Also lots of snow on Cypress and Orcas Islands above about 700ft elevation. <br /><br />Not sure I agree with your idea that winter in the NW is over by the end of February. March is often colder and nastier than February. It seems a month for cold upper level lows and troughs. This month is following that pattern.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-58605810614610287662012-03-14T07:33:34.844-07:002012-03-14T07:33:34.844-07:00As you said, there are even more issues. One of w...As you said, there are even more issues. One of which you alluded to was precipitation intensity. As you have noted in the past, pretty much all precipitation in our area forms as snow, and then melts to rain as it falls below the melting level. But this doesn't happen instantly, so you can see snow with above freezing temperatures/dew points. Typically this snow doesn't accumulate on the ground, especially during the day. But if the precipitation is hard enough, it can exceed the melting rate of the ground and so you get some accumulation. Convergence zones and convection are notorious for this, and are extremely difficult to forecast.Ronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05656580847796616214noreply@blogger.com