tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post7360469142872934131..comments2024-03-28T23:07:35.632-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Major Freezing Rain/Snow EventCliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger80125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-74444053345229249142012-01-20T16:20:26.183-08:002012-01-20T16:20:26.183-08:00For Placeholder...
When cold air is replaced with ...For Placeholder...<br />When cold air is replaced with mild marine air in the 40s, a diurnal high or low temperature is not really there. The forecast for the low temp in Seattle is 41 for tonight--but that is the current temp--it wont cool off overnight as the wind comes up (and it will be windy later!).<br /><br />Places up by the border with the last bit of air that comes down the Fraser are still just below freezing, but that should not last. The front coming in this evening will scour it all away. In fact, if you look carefully at the mesoscale model freezing level, the model even scours out the valleys into the Cascades. But I don't know about that, at least at first. I think places like Concrete, Marblemount, and probably even Skykomish on US2 could stay with snow tonight. But...after the front moves through late tonight, the snow level ought to equalize, probably around 2000 feet Saturday in strong onshore flow.Zathrashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17015108090179602410noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-25721058869610716052012-01-20T10:44:16.198-08:002012-01-20T10:44:16.198-08:00Meteorologists get the same kind of rap that Micro...<i>Meteorologists get the same kind of rap that Microsoft programmers do, the get blamed for the crash but never get any credit for how well things work 95% of the time.</i><br /><br />I won't get started on Microsoft, but as someone who has never been inclined to treat the weatherman as a pinata, I really have to say that this week was as bad as I've ever seen it for the forecasters and their credibility. <br /><br />We got lots of data but little by way of usable forecasts. Even right now, late on Friday morning, it's 10 degrees below the forecast low of the day. This has become comical!<br /><br /><i>With the models we have today that kind of knowledge and experience is less relevant because we are just looking for consistent model runs and a convergence of probabilities across the different models. One is a causal approach and the other is a statistical. Statistics correlate with reality but they do not cause it. At a certain point one has to decide when to shift gears.</i><br /><br />I agree with that. I'm as much of a stats hound as anyone, but over the years it has dawned on me that statistical modeling has a whole lot less predictive value than it seems to have at first glance.<br /><br />What you tend to get from statistical modeling is a phenomenally sharp view of the past, and of the present. The future? That's at least as much a guessing game as it's ever been.<br /><br />The danger from the statistical approach to anything is that it breeds overconfidence, sometimes fatal. Past performance is never a guarantee of future results, and often not even much of a guide at all.Placeholderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02967627809480888708noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-80192600228179352572012-01-19T21:31:51.908-08:002012-01-19T21:31:51.908-08:00The snow was fun but the ice is not. My power is ...The snow was fun but the ice is not. My power is out and a birch tree just fell over in the back yard. Can't wait for the thaw and restoration of power.wanne1https://www.blogger.com/profile/17194227873777012011noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-73667293878097124152012-01-19T20:47:53.476-08:002012-01-19T20:47:53.476-08:00Thanks for all the detailed explanations, and for ...Thanks for all the detailed explanations, and for taking the time away from your usual UW duties. Much appreciated by another UW faculty member!Jerry Seidlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10016591633996723270noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-82618948769083598782012-01-19T20:14:36.945-08:002012-01-19T20:14:36.945-08:00Those in your profession are not clairvoyant. You ...Those in your profession are not clairvoyant. You use the tools available and make a best estimation. It's impossible to know if a weather system is going to shift, drop, elevate...etc. Thanks for doing what you do, giving us what information you can (which is way more then we get from the "yellow jackets") and most of all, thank you for educating the masses on what is really going on above us.Dyanahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13296321973357243069noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-48412479801461971972012-01-19T20:10:02.970-08:002012-01-19T20:10:02.970-08:00Hey, Cliff, great blog - thanks for keeping the in...Hey, Cliff, great blog - thanks for keeping the information flowing to us. Don't apologize for Nature not being predictable - you draw the best model you can based on everything you know so far, and you tell us that, and if it turns out that Nature plays a trick, so it goes. You did hedge your bets a while ago by saying that pretty much anything could happen depending on the path that the low took... and you were right, the low didn't take the predicted path. <br /><br />Thanks again for the informative blog: I feel as I have really learned something.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16630375476695019874noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-19697735379597663762012-01-19T19:15:44.922-08:002012-01-19T19:15:44.922-08:00So delightful here on Oahu's North Shore with ...So delightful here on Oahu's North Shore with light trade winds and about 80 degrees. I don't know how my home island, Sinclair Island, is fairing. It will be interesting to see when I get back.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-80779756197322314142012-01-19T19:05:29.234-08:002012-01-19T19:05:29.234-08:00Gotta watch this video of one of our friends mocki...Gotta watch this video of one of our friends mocking the king 5 guys... "Yellow Jackets" on King 5. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yrji0TPxtTk&feature=youtu.be Very Funny!koehler93https://www.blogger.com/profile/17977042070234701886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-62508775293555417662012-01-19T18:46:37.329-08:002012-01-19T18:46:37.329-08:00Thank you Cliff, for all of your updates, and tell...Thank you Cliff, for all of your updates, and telling us the reasoning behind them. I second Seven's question on the "should" - do you think the mid-40s tomorrow is a done deal, or could we see the cold last one more day?<br /><br />You also get a mention in a very good Art Thiel post on the KING 5 website:<br /><br />http://www.king5.com/sports/sportspress-nw/137716863.htmlEbenezerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17105475236728081779noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-58253707248251694212012-01-19T18:44:06.775-08:002012-01-19T18:44:06.775-08:00Cliff, this is my first comment for you but with t...Cliff, this is my first comment for you but with the way this winter is turning, probably not my last.<br /> <br />I was thinking about a post you had last year that was a very similar situation. You saw models that were showing Seattle having one of the snowiest weeks in history and having record amounts of snow in the area. However, the storm veered too far north about 2 days before land fall and we only received rain, heavy rain. <br />This system seems like a repeat of that but instead we were on the cold side of the jet, and today was an example of the North wind playing a huge role of keeping us cold and in extended snow. <br />This pattern seems like it could hold for a while and we could be flirting with snow and cold air even though the models say differently.I'm in Bellevue and we are sitting at 26 and dropping. Yesterday we were predicted to be in the upper 30's today and tomorrow in the upper 40's, what if the wind does not shift to the South?<br />The 3 month outlook calls for below normal temps and above normal precip, which leads me to think this could be a warmup for the next few months. I'm sure we will be depending on you again very soon.<br />You have a very difficult job that can never be exact, Keep up doing what you do and I'll be following it more then any newscast or paper. <br />Also, something that you don't hear that often I'm sure, Thank you!Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06548959129112371840noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-55018189018004402532012-01-19T18:07:41.587-08:002012-01-19T18:07:41.587-08:00Still stuff coming down in Judkins Park area.
Sti...Still stuff coming down in Judkins Park area.<br /><br />Still can't get used to the sound of winter weather here.<br /><br />Really glad I did not have to go any further than the yard waste bins today.<br /><br />Gotta call my mother who was determined to go out adventuring on teh bus today. Arrrgh.RantWomanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17611656459134372290noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-17222324561312034652012-01-19T17:57:00.396-08:002012-01-19T17:57:00.396-08:00The City of Seattle has a web page where you can s...The City of Seattle has a web page where you can see a map of what's been plowed or deiced at http://web1.seattle.gov/sdot/winterweathermap/Barbara & Taruhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04713446193257593197noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-54813043558029259742012-01-19T17:30:26.421-08:002012-01-19T17:30:26.421-08:00Getting dark now... temp is -2C with an easterly s...Getting dark now... temp is -2C with an easterly surface wind here in Fremont. Legendarily fine, the kind of which to brag about years hence, excellent, historic sledding conditions in our neighborhood today. The local pack of eight year olds is already weaving tall tales about sledding the "mother hill" on Palatine...and they should all fall asleep perfectly satisfied tonight... Thanks Cliff!Big Wavehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12818648672772663106noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-29145205033389318292012-01-19T17:09:46.930-08:002012-01-19T17:09:46.930-08:005:00, still snowing lightly in North Kirkland. A f...5:00, still snowing lightly in North Kirkland. A friend in Snohomish reports this via Twitter: <br /><br />We've had power off/on, massive surges, bright lights, explosive noise, power line on the ground, but no PUD shows up. The entire house lit up inside and out like I have never seen, the buzzing and exploding noises were deafening. We think an animal was killed at the line, but we don't dare look. Just very scary and cold when the power is off.Angela in Seattlehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05942402993126617184noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-12082615127673540842012-01-19T16:54:56.589-08:002012-01-19T16:54:56.589-08:00We had freezing rain only briefly this morning, th...We had freezing rain only briefly this morning, then snow the whole day, with accumulation, here in Montlake.stepchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16416748061701051683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-66245392280021486202012-01-19T16:47:00.404-08:002012-01-19T16:47:00.404-08:00It's 4:45pm and the snow is finally slowing to...It's 4:45pm and the snow is finally slowing to a halt in the Phinney/Greenwood area. Sadly, there have been no plows this way, but fingers crossed the city sends them - I have to get to work tomorrow! Thanks for all the reporting!Just Kendalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02956715176953830454noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-28878016014303289042012-01-19T16:44:09.040-08:002012-01-19T16:44:09.040-08:00Still snow/sleet mix.
Almost all intersections h...Still snow/sleet mix.<br /><br /><br />Almost all intersections have lost power. We've been without since 9, going to be a long nihhtUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16901606822144521720noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-27197455112368726852012-01-19T16:42:31.505-08:002012-01-19T16:42:31.505-08:00This has indeed been interesting to watch. I am a...This has indeed been interesting to watch. I am aware how hard it is to "predict" the weather and think that Meteorologists get the same kind of rap that Microsoft programmers do, the get blamed for the crash but never get any credit for how well things work 95% of the time. This is complex stuff. I imagine that this is one of the most complex systems to have moved through these parts in several years and that that has made for the unreliability of the predictive models because there is just too much entropy to allow for a series of consistent runs. Which brings me to my point...<br /><br />Could we be relying too much on models? What would a Meteorologist have forecast 30 years ago with only access to the satellite images and old school instrument readings? He might have said something like this, "We know that there is a big cold front from the north, a big warm from from the south, and a massive low pressure river of clouds headed for the boundary. Well, it sounds to me like the entire Pacific Northwest is in for some crazy weather, so crazy, in fact we cannot predict what exactly will happen, but it is going to be big and region wide. So be prepared. Areas that are closer to the warm front will see increased snow fall and an earlier change to rain and areas that are further north will see sustained snowfall with decreased amounts. This situation is also literally a textbook example of the conditions required for Freezing Rain, so be prepared for this in many areas. Again, the system is so big and there are so many factors exact predictions and timings are impossible so please be prepared for just about anything. And expect just about anything for the next week or so as these series of storm come barreling through the region."<br /><br />Now I am not a Meteorologist and expect that what I've said in the preceding paragraph can be greatly critiqued by those who know more than I but my point is that 30 years ago a forecast would have been much more based on the causal aspects of the actual conditions and a best guess based on experience would have been offered. With the models we have today that kind of knowledge and experience is less relevant because we are just looking for consistent model runs and a convergence of probabilities across the different models. One is a causal approach and the other is a statistical. Statistics correlate with reality but they do not cause it. At a certain point one has to decide when to shift gears. Medical Doctors are in the same situation. So much of medicine is based on statistics of outcomes across population samples it sometimes is hard for them to treat a specific patient with specific symptoms. The line at which one would switch gears is another topic but one which seems germane to the public's dissatisfaction with the weather forecasts. At a certain point the Weatherman just has to ditch the models and run old school and issue his best guess based on his knowledge and experience. In this case that might have been a better approach.<br /><br />Now, just to be clear, I am not critiquing Cliff, or suggesting that he should do anything different but am trying to illustrate the difference in a statistic and causal approach to science. Especially when the system at hand really is far to complex for adequate statistical modeling. I guess boundaries really are where the most interesting stuff happens. Just like this weather system.Michaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04368079855715504995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-77672437083924066162012-01-19T16:35:52.703-08:002012-01-19T16:35:52.703-08:00Don't leave us now, Cliff, we need you! In La...Don't leave us now, Cliff, we need you! In Lake Forest Park (I know this is your neighborhood) we had freezing rain early which turned to costnant snow which stopped about 4pm. But the temperature hasn't started to rise yet. Still about 25 degrees on my back deck....azurehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16643585235486241167noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-51137116650171532522012-01-19T16:16:59.629-08:002012-01-19T16:16:59.629-08:00Hmmm... interesting. The radar shows W. Seattle a...Hmmm... interesting. The radar shows W. Seattle as "clear" (i.e. <5 BDz) but we definitely still have snow falling. So I pulled the resolution in closer, and sure enough, there are a couple of spots still showing up on the radar at 5-10BDz, right in our neighborhood. Gives some interesting insight into the resolution of the radar data.rainycity1https://www.blogger.com/profile/15802361369001076306noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-69131580393921038212012-01-19T16:08:47.016-08:002012-01-19T16:08:47.016-08:00I'm new to your blog, and to the area, and I m...I'm new to your blog, and to the area, and I must say that it's been an awesome read so far. Thanks for your honest updates and opinions. As for my area (Redmond), we've had continuous snowfall since about 10:30 am. Some freezing rain has been mixed in, but the snow hasn't stopped. Crazy.mrstribalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08493136333787727623noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-55275820499234231512012-01-19T16:05:53.093-08:002012-01-19T16:05:53.093-08:00Long walk with the dog this afternoon in Lake Fore...Long walk with the dog this afternoon in Lake Forest Park. Snowed all the way, gorgeous. Coyote spotted by my neighbor crossing Ballinger looking for a snack. Still some light snow falling. It's been a great break in, what would have been, the usual work week. The posts have been interesting and fun to read. Thanks Cliff.itsnotmehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10645893864711975966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-70157604376062267112012-01-19T16:04:24.445-08:002012-01-19T16:04:24.445-08:00What's surprising to me is just how wrong the ...What's surprising to me is just how wrong the forecasts were so close to the event. This morning, at 11am, I was looking at the weather.gov page, and they were still claiming we were going to see a high of 37 degrees today with decreasing rain.<br /><br />Now here it is, five hours later, it hasn't broken 30 degrees and it's still actively snowing. That's a pretty spectacularly wrong forecast for only being a couple hours out.Chrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08355001890591071849noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-4108231607786512102012-01-19T15:53:01.281-08:002012-01-19T15:53:01.281-08:00I don't get this...the NWS is telling me "...I don't get this...the NWS is telling me "little or no snow accumulation late afternoon," but it's dumping snow in Rainier Beach right now.<br /><br />I have yet to see any accurate short-term forecasting for about 48 hours. I feel like my home weather station has given me more accurate short term predictions than the NWS. As a teacher (home today) and a weather watcher, I am feeling a bit disappointed with the reading of weather probabilities these last few days.<br /><br />What do the rest of you think?grousefinderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01396904078230280660noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-44070607020396026212012-01-19T15:44:49.692-08:002012-01-19T15:44:49.692-08:00Are you sure??? :) Definitely snowmaggedon up here...Are you sure??? :) Definitely snowmaggedon up here in the hills above Monroe...17 inches so far as of 3:30 pm today and it's still coming down. Your forecast has been much appreciated and followed by the staff at the local hospital.KayRexhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06981516099035569889noreply@blogger.com