tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post810287807425677364..comments2024-03-28T23:07:35.632-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: U.S. Operational Numerical Weather Prediction: What's Wrong and How it Can Be Fixed.Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-42526416199810751992017-01-29T14:12:26.029-08:002017-01-29T14:12:26.029-08:00Cliff- The results for my cities here in the Rogue...Cliff- The results for my cities here in the Rogue Valley are outrageous! AccuWeather beating the NWS for Medford and Ashland!? Who runs that web site? AccuWeather? Seriously, show me the data!weatherBTLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00668613439187854475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-69032428987496156572016-10-25T10:21:45.303-07:002016-10-25T10:21:45.303-07:00Thanks for a great piece.
I think some of your ...Thanks for a great piece. <br /><br />I think some of your readers, myself included, would be interested in a local (Seattle/W. WA) assessment of model skill/accuracy. Such a post could include some of the particularly relevant work you and your colleges are doing at UW (e.g. WindWatch). If you have already done such a post, would you mind providing a link to it? If not, now might be a particularly timely opportunity for such a post given the problems with the storm forecast two weeks ago. <br /><br />Thanks for all your work and public contributions. SHBKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16693367377935238155noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-70018413060408894932016-10-25T09:37:27.376-07:002016-10-25T09:37:27.376-07:00Thank you for your informative post and continuing...Thank you for your informative post and continuing the drive to keep the U.S. NWP programs at the highest standards. <br /><br />Cordially, <br /><br />Mike DrossAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01114512210771729667noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-12434071873412677572016-10-25T08:07:51.210-07:002016-10-25T08:07:51.210-07:00James,
I am not blaming anyone....I am sayi...James, <br /> I am not blaming anyone....I am saying that spending 10s of millions of dollars might not have been a good investment. Another high-resolution system using a more mainstream model I(WRF) has better intensity forecasts when run real time (Penn State's hurricane forecasting effort run by Fuqing Zhang). And then this is ARW WRF from NCAR. Developing another modeling system was not a good investment for the nation.... that is my point...cliffCliff Mass Weather Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-55579499556615148492016-10-25T03:34:18.551-07:002016-10-25T03:34:18.551-07:00Cliff, the SHIPS and LGEM models use tracks that a...Cliff, the SHIPS and LGEM models use tracks that are superior, on average, to HWRF's, and yet HWRF has a better intensity verification overall (for the last three years, anyway), so in my view the answer to your first question is yes - HWRF does provide real intensity value, even though there are better track models out there. NHC forecasters make their track and intensity forecasts separately and weigh the guidance models differently for each parameter. And if HWRF has been tuned to forecast wind intensity, maybe place the blame for that with NHC, not with the model developers. Wind is the parameter we have to forecast, and it's performance on wind (and track) that guides whether we're supportive of model upgrades.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15951434689957095658noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-50812416625337296462016-10-24T21:52:30.834-07:002016-10-24T21:52:30.834-07:00James...thanks for your comment. I have studied t...James...thanks for your comment. I have studied the track forecast stats and HWRF is clearly inferior to ECMWF, UKMET, and GFS. ECMWF is far superior. Is there real value in a better intensity forecast if the track is substantially in error? HWRF offers higher resolution, but is it really any better than other high-resolution hurricane modeling systems (e.g., Hurricane WRF-ARW core run at NCAR or Penn State). The stats I have seen the the experts I have talked to (folks you would know) feel that it is not. Furthermore, they suggest HWRF has been tuned for wind intensity and does poorly for other issues (like heavy precipitation). Importantly, using the NMM core, HWRF has no future....cliffCliff Mass Weather Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-50477750670993950172016-10-24T20:25:56.068-07:002016-10-24T20:25:56.068-07:00Don't drop the NAM. It's very accurate ton...Don't drop the NAM. It's very accurate tonight in showing lowland snow on Thursday. Blizzard moving in from Hawaii!Buddyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13773392812050013355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-28568113542335426012016-10-24T19:20:32.038-07:002016-10-24T19:20:32.038-07:00The atmosphere is 'CHAOTIC'<br />The atmosphere is 'CHAOTIC'kevinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06139522575152635422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-52607546020315798962016-10-24T16:22:03.200-07:002016-10-24T16:22:03.200-07:00Cliff, I must take issue with the dismissive comme...Cliff, I must take issue with the dismissive comment regarding the HWRF. It actually has the *best* overall verification of all our individual intensity aids over the past three years (see Fig. 11 from the 2015 NHC Verification Report (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify3.shtml). The requirement for an accurate track forecast on intensity forecast accuracy is frequently overstated - the track forecast need only be reasonably good, and in fact, Fig. 6 from that same document shows that the HWRF track forecasts over the past three years have been quite good - not as good at ECMWF or GFS, but plenty good enough to allow the HWRF model to be our best intensity model overall. <br /><br />Sincerely,<br />James Franklin<br />Chief, Hurricane Specialist Unit, National Hurricane CenterAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15951434689957095658noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-28745833680604251802016-10-24T16:06:53.495-07:002016-10-24T16:06:53.495-07:00Why doesn't the US scrap the GFS and buy into ...Why doesn't the US scrap the GFS and buy into ECMWF? It would be cheaper and better.<br />(I assume that national security is not an issue when even the Air Force buys into UK MET).<br />There are definitely examples from other fields where the US buys into a European<br />system as a participant, e.g. CERN.<br /><br />Christophe VerlindeChristophehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16644725678417246202noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-61598683698882976352016-10-24T12:46:39.808-07:002016-10-24T12:46:39.808-07:00Well put!
I saw the organizational dysfunction fi...Well put!<br /><br />I saw the organizational dysfunction firsthand in the late 70's and 80's when I interned at NWS HQ, and sadly none of this is surprising. If there is particular congress-person, etc. you think is worth following-up with I'd be happy to do so?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18165471990052445169noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-36293947762857757432016-10-24T10:55:03.612-07:002016-10-24T10:55:03.612-07:00So where do we go from now? Start a public moveme...So where do we go from now? Start a public movement to start a new independent agency? <br /><br />A fairly small group in W WA took control of a public radio station when its management was destroying it, and it's now thriving.<br /><br />We the people (the end users) apparently need to assert some type control / make our voices be heard. It's not a very good deal to wait for the politicians, since this needs to be addressed NOW.<br /><br />Thank you Cliff for providing some clarity on where I should look "good" forecasts. So important on many levels from planning feed purchases for livestock, projected planting dates, watering crops, etc. I just assumed our national publicly funded agency would be the best. What a disappointment!Sue Willardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12467976826693999492noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-81960646588317683782016-10-24T08:27:28.443-07:002016-10-24T08:27:28.443-07:00Thanks Cliff for a great writeup. Its disheartenin...Thanks Cliff for a great writeup. Its disheartening that we have to expect congress to fix the problem because they can't seem to agree on anything or get anything done.Deekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10227802798728715787noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-73168003408824560552016-10-23T19:59:10.515-07:002016-10-23T19:59:10.515-07:00Wait, do I have this right?
The people who are re...Wait, do I have this right?<br /><br />The people who are responsible for using numerical forecasting tools to actually make forecasts are forced to use tools developed and maintained by people who have no responsibility at all?<br /><br />Yep, it doesn't matter if everyone involved is a genius with the very best of intentions, that's just not gonna work. I say that with no hint of irony, it's just human nature.<br />amolitorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15743439184763617516noreply@blogger.com