tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post8139970367171477836..comments2024-03-28T10:16:44.231-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: COVID is Collapsing in Washington State: Just as Predicted!Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger61125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-22104821460093868592021-05-25T23:29:25.698-07:002021-05-25T23:29:25.698-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Brother Jevhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00400007356522837472noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-75251577830894899262021-05-24T17:10:44.869-07:002021-05-24T17:10:44.869-07:00In the long run, you need T-cell immunity. There a...In the long run, you need T-cell immunity. There are already indications that exposure to the COVID-19 disease induces the production of T cells:<br /><br />https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/t-cells-recognize-recent-sars-cov-2-variantsEuropeanManhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16989032380024260304noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-60398684633733604042021-05-24T06:51:40.940-07:002021-05-24T06:51:40.940-07:00I do think you are onto something and I've had...I do think you are onto something and I've had this thought but there are two factors that may be difficult to factor in which could make your results a bit overstated (but not completely). First, there are an unknown number of people who have had covid but who have chosen to get vaccinated. You might be able to get an estimate of that number and adjust the analysis. The Second, and more unknowable at the moment, is that we don't know how long people who have had Covid retain antibodies. It seems from early studies that the worse the case the more antibodies people develop and the longer they last. But I haven{t seen good studies for less serious cases yet. I think those two factors are why you don't see much discussion about this. <br />Annette Bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15957903512162227390noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-76909347496128263072021-05-22T09:55:26.669-07:002021-05-22T09:55:26.669-07:00Jeff, how history judges our response to the coron...Jeff, how history judges our response to the coronavirus pandemic depends in large part on who writes the history, does in not? <br /><br />For one example, the central role Donald Trump played in speeding up delivery of the COVID vaccines is now being written out of the history of the pandemic and is being replaced with the narrative that very little progress was being made on the vaccine front until after Joe Biden was inaugurated as president. <br /><br />My view is that the United States is a highly diverse nation demographically, culturally, ethnically, and geographically, so that a one-fits-all panacea response to the COVID-19 pandemic was never going to be successful in this country. <br /><br />As the course of the pandemic evolved, the experts changed direction in response to how the direction of the pandemic actually moved, sometimes for better, sometimes for worse, just as they are doing now. <br /><br />In any case, public opinion strongly supports a full reopening of the economy, even at the risk of suffering higher casualties than might otherwise be the case if tight lockdowns continue. The experts have no choice but to accept this decision and to do their best to support a choice the body politic has made of its own free will.Betah Blocherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05830083338356921513noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-34055586093184011542021-05-21T17:31:46.367-07:002021-05-21T17:31:46.367-07:00"antibodies are antibodies": This is inc..."antibodies are antibodies": This is incorrect. Antibodies are very specific. mRNA vaccines induce antibodies only against the spike protein. Natural exposure induces antibodies against multiple sites of the virus and less against the spike protein. Only time will tell whether and how the mRNA vaccines will interact with new variants of SARS-CoV-2 or cross-interact with other viruses whose attachment is also mediated by spike proteins.There is something called "antibody-dependent enhancement of infection" where antibodies actually stabilize the active conformation of the attachment-mediating viral protein:<br /><br />https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-00789-5EuropeanManhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16989032380024260304noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-28296721422786117612021-05-21T17:21:48.053-07:002021-05-21T17:21:48.053-07:00The point remains that COVID-19 illness is suspect...The point remains that COVID-19 illness is suspected to induce T cell immunity:<br /><br />https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/t-cells-recognize-recent-sars-cov-2-variants<br /><br />"In their study of recovered COVID-19 patients, the researchers determined that SARS-CoV-2-specific CD8+ T-cell responses remained largely intact and could recognize virtually all mutations in the variants studied."<br /><br />That's what I make out of it.EuropeanManhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16989032380024260304noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-57089837133946404042021-05-21T11:00:39.942-07:002021-05-21T11:00:39.942-07:00All vaccines that you mention are fully FDA approv...All vaccines that you mention are fully FDA approved. None of the COVID ones are. And it's not about "freedom", it's about bodily autonomy and self-determination. Also, smallpox has a 30% mortality rate while for polio it is up to 15%. See also my comment above and in this article about "Vaccine-induced enhancement of viral infections":<br /><br />https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7131326/<br /><br />There is a long list of reasons, but it goes beyond the scope of this blog, which I feel I have already hijacked enough ...EuropeanManhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16989032380024260304noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-16832295908420588872021-05-21T09:08:35.902-07:002021-05-21T09:08:35.902-07:00I wonder how history will grade our response to th...I wonder how history will grade our response to the coronavirus. I'm of the opinion it won't be kind!jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11074848596330521566noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-86370839117721393692021-05-20T22:44:44.037-07:002021-05-20T22:44:44.037-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.EuropeanManhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16989032380024260304noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-83654040626295218802021-05-20T20:05:20.369-07:002021-05-20T20:05:20.369-07:00Full disclosure from Wikipedia: "The Associat...Full disclosure from Wikipedia: "The Association of American Physicians and Surgeons (AAPS) is a conservative non-profit association founded in 1944. The group was reported to have about 5,000 members in 2014. The association has promoted a range of scientifically discredited hypotheses, including the belief that HIV does not cause AIDS, that being gay reduces life expectancy, that there is a link between abortion and breast cancer, and that there is a causal relationship between vaccines and autism. It is opposed to the Affordable Care Act and other forms of universal health insurance."<br /><br />Make of that what you will.markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03038792920593843059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-83365615078052385682021-05-20T20:01:30.111-07:002021-05-20T20:01:30.111-07:00If anyone can propose a scenario where everything ...If anyone can propose a scenario where everything stayed open 100%, no mandates of any kind, and business remained as usual, feel free to share. <br /><br />I can't come up with anything where I can sleep well at night. In retrospective, I do not see how this whole scenario could have played out differently in such a way where the outcome was 100% positive. That is just me, and I am not the brightest bulb. <br /><br />Anyway, basically what is being touched upon by Eric Blair is who is going to pick winners and losers. Which is....both unfair and unrealistic.<br /><br />Eric, I own a small business and I opened it in July of 2019 and thankfully, its still open. Its been a lean couple of years and has tested every iota of my resolve. During that time, my dad passed away and a few friendships ended due to differences of opinion related to current events. I still feel like I got lucky, in spite of all that.<br /><br />Yes, it would of been a blow if if my business tanked on top of everything else, but life goes on. That is the key take away here. Life goes on and maybe we all should be happy that for so many of us...it will. <br /><br />There are no guarantees in business, just like in life. Small business especially, since you make that conscious decision to free climb, as in no ropes or safety nets, for your livelihood. You as a small business person have to build those safety nets for yourself, but ultimately that is a decision left to you and you alone. <br /><br />Still, I am not going to condemn an employee, customer, or myself to grievous illness or death, just for a buck. Its not worth it. My business could fail and I have to go back to working for Corporate America or the USG for a while. That is fine, been there done that. They will both take me back if I so choose. The point is mostly about getting to live to fight another day. Not just for myself but for everyone who deserves that chance. <br /><br />My OPINION is that Inslee did a fine job. He handled it to the best of his ability during some very dark times. I could not comprehend the difficult decisions he had to make and all the pressure. For him and all the other governors, who had to balance politics, commerce and public safety, this has been their most challenging era in modern times. Covid really was/is about the governors and the states they are entrusted with, for better or for worse. THEY were the ones who got stuck with the task of picking winners and losers.<br /><br />Hopefully Jay Inslee finishes his term, exits politics and enjoys a happy retirement. BAMCIShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05285865892838328830noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-30972926974828304902021-05-20T18:30:36.132-07:002021-05-20T18:30:36.132-07:00I fear the answer to your question Cliff is that t...I fear the answer to your question Cliff is that the Washington State Department of Health is not staffed with first rate scientists and is currently being directed by a partisan politician who is not very bright.David Younghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17029429374522399227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-30762949906929097142021-05-20T18:28:34.053-07:002021-05-20T18:28:34.053-07:00Thanks, Cliff Mass, for being a voice of reason ba...Thanks, Cliff Mass, for being a voice of reason based on plain data analysis! In this Covid world there is unfortunately so much simple fear perhaps panic driven information that voices of reason are easily overheard.Google Accounthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03473521985855011882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-42517063685968764042021-05-20T18:05:32.449-07:002021-05-20T18:05:32.449-07:00The businesses would have been shutdown either way...The businesses would have been shutdown either way. People don't go to restaurants if they think they are going to die. Sweden had a lot more dead, and just as bad an economy as its Nordic neighbors, despite taking a less restrictive approach. <br /><br />Our failure was not in being too restrictive, but in failing to handle this from the beginning, like the Asian countries. Severe lockdowns and contract tracing work, and they recovered relatively quickly (with far less dead, and far less taxpayer money spent taking care of the sick). RossBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06330673534911248576noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-43832336986975434612021-05-20T17:57:15.700-07:002021-05-20T17:57:15.700-07:00It will be years before the world has access to va...It will be years before the world has access to vaccines, and like most diseases (e. g. polio) it may be many years before it is wiped out (if ever). RossBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06330673534911248576noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-17047939238949968962021-05-20T17:34:22.967-07:002021-05-20T17:34:22.967-07:00What is wrong with a vaccine requirement? It is ho...What is wrong with a vaccine requirement? It is how we got rid of small pox. It is how we are on the verge of getting rid of polio. It is why mumps, measles and rubella are rare. This idea that you should have the freedom to spread the deadliest disease in 100 years is horse crap. OK, AIDS is deadlier, but AIDS is a lot harder to get. <br /><br /><br />RossBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06330673534911248576noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-11395330286920416112021-05-20T17:09:41.389-07:002021-05-20T17:09:41.389-07:00You overlook the fact that the vast majority of th...You overlook the fact that the vast majority of their vaxxes come from China, whose vaxxes work no better than a coin flip.Placeholderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02967627809480888708noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-25849619452961980082021-05-20T17:08:21.365-07:002021-05-20T17:08:21.365-07:00Yes, and your "progressives" want everyo...Yes, and your "progressives" want everyone to be required to wear masks forever, and the teachers' unions want their members to be paid union salaries not to work. Educating children is nowhere on their list of priorities.Placeholderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02967627809480888708noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-90069377111952077072021-05-20T17:06:43.023-07:002021-05-20T17:06:43.023-07:00Inslee is clever, but not smart and not honest. Re...Inslee is clever, but not smart and not honest. Remember, this is the doofus who declared a "climate emergency" in WA State to create a presidential campaign slogan, followed almost immediately by heavy rain. LOL. In his first election campaign, he promised to oppose tax increases; as soon as he took office, he broke that promise, and has gone on to sign the largest tax increases in WA State history.<br /><br />Of course, the Democrats love it. As a former Seattle resident and former Democrat, I attended a bunch of precinct committee meetings there. One absolute certainty is that no Democratic Party meeting can last more than 5 minutes without a call for more taxes. Placeholderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02967627809480888708noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-44379610649407318892021-05-20T15:44:37.715-07:002021-05-20T15:44:37.715-07:00Jo Nova has written an article on her website abou...Jo Nova has written an article on her website about the dangers of COVID variants as they might be emerging in the future:<br /><br />https://joannenova.com.au/2021/05/did-they-forget-to-tell-us-leaky-vaccines-may-trigger-an-arms-race-that-makes-covid-more-dangerous/<br /><br />She says: "What if mass vaccination with imperfect vaccines could promote the survival of nastier strains of Covid? What if the leaky vaccines act like a filter for more dangerous versions of SARS2? This doesn’t happen with most vaccines, only “leaky” ones ...... Leaky vaccines generate a half-baked immune response — one that stops illness, but allows transmission, so a vaccinated person can theoretically infect others. This is bad but not awful — as long as the virus gets eliminated in a timely fashion. But if the virus can cloak itself from the immune system, and hide in protected cells, then it can keep replicating for a long time, and eventually, randomly, it will escape the imperfect immune response. Those mutants will be resistant to the antibodies or t-cell tricks. Thus newer strains of Covid may arise that are already pre-loaded with goodies to get around our immune system."<br /><br />My view is that it may be four or five years before we know with any reasonable certainty whether or not most of the danger from the COVID pandemic has actually passed.Betah Blocherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05830083338356921513noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-80378178885404176582021-05-20T15:14:24.705-07:002021-05-20T15:14:24.705-07:00I also wanted to add that being against "vacc...I also wanted to add that being against "vaccine requirements" does not imply being against "vaccinations". There should be a distinction.EuropeanManhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16989032380024260304noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-69404272782199383432021-05-20T14:14:50.305-07:002021-05-20T14:14:50.305-07:00OK, and let's discuss who should be 100% respo...OK, and let's discuss who should be 100% responsible for the ruined lives that were lost because of the yearlong shutdowns. Family businesses that were viable for decades all up in smoke (pun intended because of the suddenly allowed widespread rioting, because...science!). Not to mention the soaring suicide rates that were reflected in people not being able to communicate in person with those that they were closest to, being held virtual prisoners in their own homes. Not to mention the government squandering trust that had been built up for many lifetimes, again - all up in smoke. Pray tell, whom pays for those consequences? Eric Blairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09376653214948517679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-78208753713649577522021-05-20T14:02:22.838-07:002021-05-20T14:02:22.838-07:00The .gov really only has the data from vaccine dis...The .gov really only has the data from vaccine distribution as their irrefutable data set. The exposed are an estimate. So, if I was a government official not wanting to stick my neck out too far, I would base the floor for herd immunity on the vax data and have the exposed be a safety margin.BAMCIShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05285865892838328830noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-2804058869835558432021-05-20T12:34:04.018-07:002021-05-20T12:34:04.018-07:00Going by the science, the state should be 100% ope...Going by the science, the state should be 100% open now as opposed to a month from now. Implication being, with the option to get the vaccine or just take one's chances and be exposed, the numbers fall in place with vaccinated in conjunction with those exposed. Its fair to say that with the vaccine, the individual mandate does have merit. It means its time to be adults now. <br /><br />Now since this is the beginning of the end and the start of the "shouldawouldacoulda" phase, many will re-iterate that the individual mandate was ALL there ever needed to be and perhaps the lives saved were not worth the disruption in commerce nor the infringement on personal liberty. <br /><br />Those comments are not without substance and can be respected as a reflection of having a free society. It of my OPINION however that such reflections are a bit lacking in empathy at the very least. Disappointing but not surprising. Returning to being more objective, WITHOUT the vaccine option, the governments were warranted in their actions to safeguard the public. Mostly without the vaccine, the public can't be trusted to do what is in the general best interest. Without the vaccine there is no option to protect one's self from others expressions of "liberty". Basically, I want the option of your liberty not to take away mine. If that option doesn't exist, than I am A-Ok with the government intervening, as much as it pains. <br /><br />Anyway, its time to get on with life, however that may be. Go get your shots. If you refuse for whatever your convictions are and the end result is exposure, than its your fault. The consequences should be 100% yours. Lets be adults. <br /><br />BAMCIShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05285865892838328830noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-37154355794320924202021-05-20T11:21:01.949-07:002021-05-20T11:21:01.949-07:00Jay, when a vaccine is a requirement for keeping y...Jay, when a vaccine is a requirement for keeping your job, or for obtaining a job, that is coercion. And it is not true that "this protection [from natural immunity] will be much weaker in the long run". There is no long-term data that indicates that. On the other hand, we don't know whether any of the COVID vaccines will make you more susceptible to variants in the future. This happened in 2009-2010 with the novel (swine) flu. People who had received the vaccine for the seasonal flu were more susceptible to the novel (swine) flu. This is published peer-reviewed science, not "conspiracy theory" as you claim:<br /><br />https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2850385/<br /><br />The part I "agreed" with you with was "We already have enough confusing messaging from the CDC and government". Hence the necessity (at least from my side) to do my own research about vaccines (like the article above). Sorry for not clarifying it in my previous comment.EuropeanManhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16989032380024260304noreply@blogger.com