tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post8406544606915936815..comments2024-03-28T21:53:05.737-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Forecast Lessons from the Northeast SnowstormCliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-56697822131854632842015-02-06T21:59:54.408-08:002015-02-06T21:59:54.408-08:00I would love to see confidence attached to forecas...I would love to see confidence attached to forecasts, but I fear those will have to be made available somewhere between the current popular weather media and the technical forecast graphics. Ask someone what a "50% chance of rain" means, and it becomes clear that presenting distributions might just create more anger: "It's so complicated, I never know what's going to happen", and so forth.<br /><br />Also, thanks for that note about the NAM. I was worried "workhorse" implied "preferred".Brianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14433834468021679601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-23296942408388460492015-01-29T23:14:07.848-08:002015-01-29T23:14:07.848-08:00Thanks for all the detail Cliff. Good to understan...Thanks for all the detail Cliff. Good to understand. Wardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02414198550493495245noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-38034871035989573492015-01-29T16:57:55.568-08:002015-01-29T16:57:55.568-08:00Ask “What’s the Distribution of Your Forecast?&quo...Ask “What’s the Distribution of Your Forecast?"<br /><br />https://medium.com/message/ask-not-will-it-snow-ask-whats-the-distribution-of-your-forecast-b7131f5783a9The Dudehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12345814920063987807noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-63582123936080638442015-01-28T19:11:41.588-08:002015-01-28T19:11:41.588-08:00C.P.O.: That attitude, which is shared by many dec...C.P.O.: That attitude, which is shared by many decision makers, is part of the problem. Neglecting to provide uncertainty or providing a false representation of uncertainty because decision makers don't want to deal with it will consistently lead to sub-optimal decisions. Decision makers need to learn how to incorporate the uncertainty into their risk assessments, not stick their heads in the sand. Everyone would love to have a definite answer on what is going to happen and only have to consider one scenario, but that isn't realistic.<br /><br />(All opinions are my own and do not necessarily represent the opinion of NOAA, NWS, or NCEP.)Walterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12291358564055566312noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-23117647387345923532015-01-28T17:17:25.745-08:002015-01-28T17:17:25.745-08:00I think splitting the forecast probability into ab...I think splitting the forecast probability into about an even 30% chance for over 2', 1'-2', and under 1' is technically accurate, but it actually does little for a real life forecast. That much uncertainty is a problem in and of itself, and produces a virtually meaningless forecast of an equal chance of between 6"-30" of snow. I think you have to narrow it down further than that, but perhaps acknowledge the uncertainty.C.P.O.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16880429004171251097noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-23219328494305623332015-01-28T16:15:57.268-08:002015-01-28T16:15:57.268-08:00A fine overview and I don't feel that forecast...A fine overview and I don't feel that forecasters owed anyone an apology. It's no different from posting a Tornado Watch and then not having a twister drop out of a cloud. It is far better to be safe than sorry and waiting until the 'IT' happens there's no time to prepare.<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01112688168665414308noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-52117803493611894452015-01-28T13:54:51.244-08:002015-01-28T13:54:51.244-08:00Here's the DC forecast analysis by the Capital...Here's the DC forecast analysis by the Capital Weather Gang, and from there, you can look at the rest of their coverage, including several "what went wrong in NYC" posts that echo Cliff's. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/27/how-much-snow-fell-in-d-c-and-how-was-the-forecast/JewelyaZhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09434569437851248356noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-82395619927007345582015-01-28T13:52:37.614-08:002015-01-28T13:52:37.614-08:00Bravo. Bravo. Some of the solutions to improving...Bravo. Bravo. Some of the solutions to improving communicating forecasts seem so, well, common sense solutions.olddoglearninghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12316708973687975248noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-18837184484379134412015-01-28T13:28:21.476-08:002015-01-28T13:28:21.476-08:00The Capital Weather Gang in Washington, DC, not on...The Capital Weather Gang in Washington, DC, not only got this exactly right for DC but also had hints that it wasn't right for New York and Philly. Why didn't people listen to them? They do nowcasting and also express snow forecasts in a format you'd like:<br />Boom: high-range forecast<br />Expected: forecast snow<br />Bust: low-range forecast<br />Confidence: low-medium-high<br />This is easy for most people to understand. Their forecast for this snow event ended up being the "boom" scenario, but with their Medium confidence level, nobody was mad at them.<br />In contrast, the NWS forecast for New York was the "boom" scenario, and what New York got was a "bust" but nobody indicated that there was only Medium confidence in the forecast, so people were inconvenienced and angry.<br />As Gordon Ramsay would say, "What a shame." With just a bit more information, people in NYC could have planned according to the storm that was REALLY likely to happen.JewelyaZhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09434569437851248356noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-85746195842932587142015-01-28T11:01:30.480-08:002015-01-28T11:01:30.480-08:00This was a communication failure; the divergence b...This was a communication failure; the divergence between the models was well stated if people bothered to listen. However, I believe not all of the blame should be borne by the NWS, but by a certain for-profit weather source widely available on cable networks.Pasadenahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01729701699369039441noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-20030678286634371412015-01-28T07:28:19.919-08:002015-01-28T07:28:19.919-08:00I hope we'll get a more risk-based forecast ap...I hope we'll get a more risk-based forecast approach soon. Communication of flood risk from FEMA and the USACE has improved by shifting away from talking about the "100-year flood" and towards terms like the "1% annual chance exceedance flood event".J Chttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04157476210872013274noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-43295435086763225272015-01-28T05:36:19.987-08:002015-01-28T05:36:19.987-08:00Thanks for the explanation. So as complement to th...Thanks for the explanation. So as complement to the upgraded technical abilities that are clearly needed, are there upgraded communication skills training that goes with it? I've always wondered whether there are communication professionals and graphic designers who might find new, innovative, and clearer ways to talk about and present the uncertainties and even the certainties. Of course, we are human beings, a very strange species indeed, as well as Americans in a culture that wants certainty, definitiveness, precision, and black and whiteness in a world that is very much anything but.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-26470817832025642292015-01-28T04:03:36.686-08:002015-01-28T04:03:36.686-08:00Was waiting for this. Good read!Was waiting for this. Good read!ryamkajrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08268910924570439599noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-53346348716343724402015-01-28T01:12:06.640-08:002015-01-28T01:12:06.640-08:00Excellent, Thanks for giving us the whole picture....Excellent, Thanks for giving us the whole picture. My job (custodian in nyc school) depends heavily on weather forecast s(snow removal) .Saberonyxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03072994260388316033noreply@blogger.com