tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post8449169366060327711..comments2024-03-18T22:50:29.792-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Snow UpdateCliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-20046423209011991892011-11-19T18:20:54.653-08:002011-11-19T18:20:54.653-08:00I live in a particularly cold little pocket in wes...I live in a particularly cold little pocket in west Olympia near Evergreen State College. Woke up to snow, still sticking on the trees, melted on the road. At 4 pm, still a few patches of snow in my yard.Woodrathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02079958095305271932noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-50001881458965166942011-11-19T11:29:56.185-08:002011-11-19T11:29:56.185-08:00We got about an inch last night in Port Townsend b...We got about an inch last night in Port Townsend between 7:30 and 9. Made for a fun bike ride home!Neilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16543015428930064855noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-32594219790203495202011-11-19T10:05:36.947-08:002011-11-19T10:05:36.947-08:00It's been snowing in Eburg since 7:00am or so....It's been snowing in Eburg since 7:00am or so. Still coming down at 10:00am as I write this.Bonniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11241425687786973525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-76896673222052152212011-11-19T09:25:28.878-08:002011-11-19T09:25:28.878-08:00woke up this morning in east olympia with 2" ...woke up this morning in east olympia with 2" or so of snow on the back deck. very pretty. but it is melting quickly.nocurlinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13585409049948027881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-77509367280649902242011-11-19T08:41:35.811-08:002011-11-19T08:41:35.811-08:00Woke up with white yards and roofs with a little s...Woke up with white yards and roofs with a little slush on the streets this morning in Olympia. The children are out on their sleds and making snowmen (or really leaf infused snowmen). It has stopped snowing and it's melting but it was nice for a walk.larchitechhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02405453993339905510noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-40829620027941385372011-11-19T05:56:25.818-08:002011-11-19T05:56:25.818-08:00Cliff...you rock! I live in Eburg and work in Sea...Cliff...you rock! I live in Eburg and work in Seattle. You are more reliable than any other forecast out there!!!!Thompsonizedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13502838763091809393noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-48737032107092170252011-11-19T00:23:26.352-08:002011-11-19T00:23:26.352-08:00@smokejumper
User sensitivity is certainly a signi...@smokejumper<br />User sensitivity is certainly a significant issue in the field. It is very difficult to make a call as granular as advisory/no advisory when the users who are acting based on this have such a wide range in sensitivity to the conditions. There's some people/businesses that would take such a hard hit from say 1" of snow that they need to prepare for it even for just say a .05 probability of occurrence, while other users may just want to know the most probable outcome, and others that may only care if it is a virtual certainty. So it is difficult to issue a single advisory that caters to everyone, and my impression is that the NWS tends to take a "safe" route by minimizing the false negative rate/beta error, catering to those sensitive users who want to prepare for even reasonably low probability events (in this case, snowfall). By minimizing the beta error, the false positive rate/alpha error must go up. It is an interesting tradeoff and perhaps their current approach is not ideal, though I'm sure one of those sensitive users would disagree.Greghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12338232821291624319noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-44127492649217728682011-11-19T00:09:29.011-08:002011-11-19T00:09:29.011-08:00There were some wet flurries around 9PM on Capitol...There were some wet flurries around 9PM on Capitol Hill at about 400 feet elevation this evening. No accumulation. Rain showers were mixing with and changing to snow here at High Point in West Seattle when I left at about 8.blackcaphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11492762206937450292noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-9364199082587746782011-11-18T22:01:44.129-08:002011-11-18T22:01:44.129-08:00Hey Cliff, Sorry I left a cynical comment couple ...Hey Cliff, Sorry I left a cynical comment couple days ago but I gotta continue it tonight....<br /><br />Truth...I love the NWS...We need them. Talk about privatizing our forecasts to outside companies is idiotic...<br /><br />But i'd grade their performance around D- the last couple days. <br /><br />Winter storm warnings for Ellensburg, Yakima two days ago. Same for Spokane to the Palouse today. Now advisories south sound, eastern foothills, portland and the gorge tonight. Nothing but trace amounts across the board. <br /><br />Its like the little boy who cried wolf. After three times, we'll stop listening.smokejumperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05358322512081660205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-78965111875923933622011-11-18T21:26:34.676-08:002011-11-18T21:26:34.676-08:00My first grader, resigned to another no-snow day, ...My first grader, resigned to another no-snow day, after checking NOAA, KOMO, and here: "You know, Cliff Mass could be the *only* weather guy that we need. What he says is always right.* Is he the smartest weather guy on earth?"<br />You have a fan! And no pressure, but the next time your site says Snow ("certified by Cliff Mass!"), there really needs to be some. <br /><br />* I explained that's not the case, and then tossed in a bit about multiple data sources and ambiguity.Olgahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13812716670021878946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-78795995645751948762011-11-18T20:52:58.144-08:002011-11-18T20:52:58.144-08:00Up here in North Bothell it is snowing and 34 degr...Up here in North Bothell it is snowing and 34 degrees at 8:50. I am expecting temps to drop a bit in the nighttime and for it to possibly stick on the roads. Weather radar shows that we may be in a (familiar)convergence zone as the clouds and just hanging above us.21anorthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01537823828232381004noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-47491402309700494272011-11-18T20:34:45.226-08:002011-11-18T20:34:45.226-08:00What are the conditions like for snow south of Oly...What are the conditions like for snow south of Olympia. Just curious as I will be heading down to Corvalis tomorrow!Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08922072921160641672noreply@blogger.com