tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post8614746073291868011..comments2024-03-28T03:08:44.068-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Snow Heads to Oregon, While Western WA Enjoys Cold/Dry/Windy ConditionsCliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger31125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-7902605175113296862019-02-26T19:35:20.556-08:002019-02-26T19:35:20.556-08:00"sunsnow12 said...
Exactly. Per your map M... "sunsnow12 said...<br /><br /> Exactly. Per your map MAC, the entirety of E. Oregon is green on January 2nd"<br /><br />Hate to break the news to you, but the Cascades are the main source of water.<br />As of February 1, most of the Cascades and Siskiyous were in the 50%-75% of normal range. By February 1, most of eastern Oregon was also below normal. Things got worse between January 1 and February 1. Look at all the links and you will see this is the case.MAC in Bellinghamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00951163853106956325noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-58647323215529309022019-02-26T14:09:43.572-08:002019-02-26T14:09:43.572-08:00Wow, We went from one of the warmest starts to Jan...<i>Wow, We went from one of the warmest starts to Jan to a cold Feb. Meanwhile a good chunk of Arctic regions is having extreme warm anomolies. Global warming sucks</i><br /><br />Um, cultist? There's a lot of volatility in the weather in this region. Always has been, always will be. No reason to bring your church into it. There's a very good book about the region's weather. It's called <i>The Weather of the Pacific Northwest</i>. You should consider reading it.Placeholderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02967627809480888708noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-31662943827960163312019-02-26T13:47:42.087-08:002019-02-26T13:47:42.087-08:00Dr. Mass has paid the price for his objectivity, D...Dr. Mass has paid the price for his objectivity, Dr. Richard Feynman would be proud. Eric Blairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09376653214948517679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-5117705503126234832019-02-26T13:39:48.669-08:002019-02-26T13:39:48.669-08:00Thanks Cliff for again pointing out the lack of ra...Thanks Cliff for again pointing out the lack of radar on the central Oregon coast. Right now, the Mt Ashland radar is out and the closest radar we have here in the Rogue Valley - where it is currently snowing hard - is Arcata! Difficult to infer much from that, and, as you point out there is never any good radar for the Central Oregon coast. I am going to get our great Oregon senators Merkley and Wyden working on that if I can.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03079755425439375675noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-57612329239001215002019-02-26T11:32:49.244-08:002019-02-26T11:32:49.244-08:00Exactly. Per your map MAC, the entirety of E. Oreg...Exactly. Per your map MAC, the entirety of E. Oregon is green on January 2nd.<br /><br />Per sub-section: 103%, 96%, 97%, 106%, 100%, 103%, 116%<br /><br />In fact, out of the 11 sub-sections in the entirety of the state, 7 were at - or above - normal seven weeks ago . And since that time they have received more snow - substantially more snow. And yes, I disagree with Cliff that "this storm" will put them into the green. They have been in the green for weeks. In fact now they are well above that.<br /><br />Yes, SalishT, newspapers like to cherry-pick out negative news. I don't. I like to look at the positive. And the positive for the entire NW this year - against a continuous chorus of negativity, drought-mongering (every year now), and low precip predictions/forecasts that have been stunningly wrong (again) - we are once more looking at a very healthy year for water in the NW.<br /><br />And I want to make it clear here - I come to this blog because Cliff is one of the few who tells the truth on this. I disagree that this storm is the key to putting Oregon over the top, but that is a (very) minor disagreement in the larger picture. If it were not for Cliff, we would get nothing but lies and misinformation on water supply -- he has been huge on keeping the discussion honest.sunsnow12https://www.blogger.com/profile/16856025812008113046noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-92169872776434710992019-02-26T11:22:27.629-08:002019-02-26T11:22:27.629-08:00"How will snow now stop fires later?
Having a..."How will snow now stop fires later?<br />Having an average snowpack helps immeasurably with fire suppression efforts later on when the weather turns dry. OTOH, the increased foliage at times can become troublesome if the summer months turn out to be abnormally dry. Take a quick look at other sites for more information on this topic. The entire West coast is above average for snowpack (most are far above), so unless we have above average temps from here on out and the soils dry out prematurely, the outlook looks good. Eric Blairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09376653214948517679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-7148406446267356702019-02-26T09:23:24.910-08:002019-02-26T09:23:24.910-08:00Sorry. I'm the unknown.
At 8:19 I made a comme...Sorry. I'm the unknown.<br />At 8:19 I made a comment, and I did not intend to not use my name.<br />John F. Hultquist<br />north of Ellensburg in central WashingtonJohn F. Hultquisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02405080162099143163noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-85498003771001054762019-02-26T09:22:29.844-08:002019-02-26T09:22:29.844-08:00I just did a search and found all sorts of Oregon ...I just did a search and found all sorts of Oregon newspapers (older than this storm) lamenting the below normal snowpack recent recent articles (after the storm) updating that the snowpack was back to normal. <br /><br />I only checked because I was curious about Cliff’s report not to flame you. SalishThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10512838562114038294noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-13347635034531986302019-02-26T08:42:03.165-08:002019-02-26T08:42:03.165-08:00An Oregon Snotel map for February 1, 2019 (I can g...An Oregon Snotel map for February 1, 2019 (I can generate a PDF but cannot make a link - sorry). It shows snowpack in the 50 to 75% range in Oregon for that date:<br /><br />https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/wcc/!ut/p/z1/pZExb4MwEIV_SwfG-o6EErebw5CkRErbpAm5JTKUAlIwCDux-u9LxZqaSr3Bks_fe_esA4IESMlrVUhTNUqe-_uRwtNqwsWSbzFeREGA4jGa7dbbGcZvD3BwArsQqH_mPAr8TYBrjFHga8Tjfbjc-5uXyYh-jn_T4y8lBv1ofscA-s__e4Dc8Q5AYwg5M8zHgJ8dOIGpD89AxblJh4ULlU55AdTln3mXd-zS9e3SmFY_eeihtZbZLGOqyzS76A_JiubqoVaNHc5TLVtWmvqmWdloA8lND2jr974SrFb3lH7Zu282F_6j/dz/d5/L2dBISEvZ0FBIS9nQSEh/#version=103&elements=R&networks=!&states=OR&basins=!&hucs=&minElevation=&maxElevation=&elementSelectType=all&activeOnly=true&activeForecastPointsOnly=false&hucLabels=false&hucIdLabels=false&hucParameterLabels=false&stationLabels=&overlays=&hucOverlays=&basinOpacity=100&basinNoDataOpacity=100&basemapOpacity=100&maskOpacity=0&mode=data&openSections=dataElement,parameter,date,basin,elements,location,networks&controlsOpen=true&popup=&popupMulti=&base=esriNgwm&displayType=basinstation&basinType=or_8&dataElement=WTEQ&depth=-8&parameter=PCTMED&frequency=DAILY&duration=I&customDuration=1&dayPart=E&year=2019&month=2&day=1&monthPart=E&forecastPubMonth=6&forecastPubDay=1&forecastExceedance=50&seqColor=1&divColor=3&scaleType=D&scaleMin=&scaleMax=&referencePeriodType=POR&referenceBegin=1981&referenceEnd=2010&minimumYears=20&hucAssociations=true&lat=43.531&lon=-124.002&zoom=6.5MAC in Bellinghamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00951163853106956325noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-60379618252838891502019-02-26T07:13:51.286-08:002019-02-26T07:13:51.286-08:00Sorry for linking to 2018 data. Here is a link to...Sorry for linking to 2018 data. Here is a link to a January 2, 2019 and February 1, 2019 report:<br /><br />http://mountainjourney.com/snotel-data-20190102/<br /><br />https://wcc.sc.egov.usda.gov/reports/UpdateReport.html?textReport=Oregon&textRptKey=10&textFormat=SNOTEL+Snow%2FPrecipitation+Update+Report&StateList=10&RegionList=Select+a+Region+or+Basin&SpecialList=Select+a+Special+Report&MonthList=February&DayList=1&YearList=2019&FormatList=N0&chkDst=on&OutputFormatList=HTML&textMonth=February&textDay=1&CompYearList=select+a+yearMAC in Bellinghamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00951163853106956325noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-32895337527244848052019-02-25T22:32:57.335-08:002019-02-25T22:32:57.335-08:00Wow, We went from one of the warmest starts to Jan...Wow, We went from one of the warmest starts to Jan to a cold Feb. Meanwhile a good chunk of Arctic regions is having extreme warm anomolies. Global warming sucksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-25113791766398172902019-02-25T21:11:40.025-08:002019-02-25T21:11:40.025-08:00How will snow now stop fires later? How will snow now stop fires later? Christie Qualeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13155902374075036813noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-661625019537932242019-02-25T20:59:28.915-08:002019-02-25T20:59:28.915-08:00Your region must have been in a rain shadow alot t...Your region must have been in a rain shadow alot this season. Some areas got hit with alot of rain like the south facing slopes of the North Shore mountains of Vancouver BC which clearly took the brunt of the SW flow that was prevalent before February. From late October to the end of January, Coquitlam BC (a suburb of Vancouver NE of the city) had almost 70 inches of rain. So far this February there is below normal precip but still almost 5 inches so not record dry by any means. Solid snowpack too. March can also be a very wet month around here Scott8https://www.blogger.com/profile/11336860679244375664noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-32661636567678536412019-02-25T20:53:44.942-08:002019-02-25T20:53:44.942-08:00MAC -
Are you serious? You linked to a map from F...MAC -<br /><br />Are you serious? You linked to a map from February 22, 2018. That is a year ago. Why would you do that?<br /><br />Snowpack in Oregon has been steadily increasing for the last six weeks, but even at the beginning of January all of eastern OR was above average.<br /><br />Historically, snowpack in the WA Cascades has been increasing for the last 30 years. Cliff has pointed it out plenty of times. The stats are easily available for someone like you.<br /><br />I was going to write more but really, we've been over this all before. Just makes me tired. <br />sunsnow12https://www.blogger.com/profile/16856025812008113046noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-75154334362986732222019-02-25T20:19:35.337-08:002019-02-25T20:19:35.337-08:00Cliff wrote: " The eastern slopes of the WA C...Cliff wrote: " The eastern slopes of the WA Cascades are not much better."<br /><br />We live near Ellensburg. Our reporting office is Pendleton, OR., and there is radar there.<br />We are 126 miles from there. We are 93 miles from Seattle. When we look for the radar image, the default is Seattle. <br />However, the Cascade Crest is in the way, so that shows zilch about our location. Thus, there is an extra step involved to get the Pendleton radar. Spokane radar is 146 miles away.<br />A couple of years ago I wrote to NWS Pendleton and asked if I could get their radar by default. The answer was no, it is a national thing, and the coder likely was a "flatlander" from Wash. D.C.<br />From the Ellensburg area to the north, we don't get much respect, or radar either.John F. Hultquisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02405080162099143163noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-61584938944276175532019-02-25T20:16:52.493-08:002019-02-25T20:16:52.493-08:00Organic Farmer -
I am curious on this one, as &q...Organic Farmer - <br /><br />I am curious on this one, as "very dry" (vs. avg) would differ significantly from other western WA locations in the 18/19 water year... maybe due to an enhanced Olympic rain shadow pattern? Any stats you have vs. avg from your location, or maybe Port Townsend or Sequim?<br /><br />Some W. WA examples: Seatac currently at 99% precip for the water year; Hoquiam 103%; precip at Chester Morse reservoir (Seattle Water Supply) 101%. Snoqualmie Pass is currently measuring 93" snow vs. +/- 69" 5-yr avg (135%). Stevens is at 89" vs. 72" (123%), etc.sunsnow12https://www.blogger.com/profile/16856025812008113046noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-89658532994456961792019-02-25T19:16:39.791-08:002019-02-25T19:16:39.791-08:00I live on Bowen Island (Vancouver's equivalent...I live on Bowen Island (Vancouver's equivalent to Bainbridge Is). But with a big difference- we are at the mouth of Howe Sound, and the outflow winds can be ferocious. In Jan. 1991, they were measured at 77 knots at Pam Rocks. Today, they are 34 gusting 45 knots. <br /><br />https://weather.gc.ca/marine/forecast_e.html?mapID=02&siteID=06400<br /><br /><br />Last week they were in the 50's. Under these conditions, there is little to no wind at Pt. Atkinson lighthouse or Vancouver (sheltered by the North Shore Mountains), and stronger than what blows out of the Fraser Valley that easily crosses the line around Sumas...<br /><br />The best local predictor of arctic outflow winds (besides pressure gradients and the like) is to look at the Marine Weather reporting station of Cathedral Point.<br /><br />https://weather.gc.ca/marine/forecast_e.html?mapID=02&siteID=06400Peter Frintonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13454663109261296612noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-7023627032446444812019-02-25T19:03:42.776-08:002019-02-25T19:03:42.776-08:00We received 10" last night here 30 miles N of...We received 10" last night here 30 miles N of Eugene. A fair bit more than the 1"-3" range in last night's National Weather Service prediction. <br /><br /> I was so happy today to see Willamette Basin index reach 100% today. Not that long ago it was languishing along at around 60%, Hoping to see Hood, Sandy, Lower Deschutes Basins up to that level soon. Still its at 88% up from around 49% for a bit. Both those regions are important to two major population centers. Even the Klamaths are looking decent. For a change this year its been eastern Oregon basins consistently coming in at >100%.<br /><br />gnolanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09955373958978384312noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-57297947597105306982019-02-25T18:10:22.688-08:002019-02-25T18:10:22.688-08:00Light, light snow in IssaquahLight, light snow in IssaquahSurferDudehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03180935412670549099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-78292170531204467112019-02-25T17:57:38.062-08:002019-02-25T17:57:38.062-08:00Keyword to me is dry.
At least on the Quimper Pen...Keyword to me is dry.<br /><br />At least on the Quimper Penninsula, it appears to be a very dry "wet season" so far.<br /><br />Very dry. My seasonal pond is dry, local lakes are at summer low levels. I have found dry Dusty dirt in dirt piles.<br /><br />I would say cold dry and windy is not only the coming week but the winter as a whole, sans our false spring in January.<br /><br />Organic Farmerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08694548750704036717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-60654233358822803102019-02-25T16:32:35.467-08:002019-02-25T16:32:35.467-08:00Buahahaha. Yea. Almost tore the wind of the ole l...Buahahaha. Yea. Almost tore the wind of the ole lexus earlier. Well let’s look at it this way, last year we had no snow and very little cold. But many folks suffered with a hellish flu, I myself have to go on anabiotic‘s to get rid of A lung condition that was flirting with pneumonia, But hey, this year I’m sound as a whistle. But need a few miligrams of “weather rx”. Surely we can find something to be thankful about right ? Shortyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14118440296634351814noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-62776178229108494182019-02-25T14:59:11.014-08:002019-02-25T14:59:11.014-08:00My brother-in-law lives in Eugene and said they ha...My brother-in-law lives in Eugene and said they had at least 8 inches of snow this morning! I just read a report on OregonLive.com that Eugene airport received 11 inches, Cottage Grove, which is just South of Eugene got 14 inches! Diamond Lake in Central Oregon Cascades got 4-6 feet! <br /><br />Interestingly, Bandon, Oregon, on the coast had 6 Inches of rain! NW Weather Geekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18078868875877093120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-2684927934570682792019-02-25T13:53:22.507-08:002019-02-25T13:53:22.507-08:00sunsnow12 said...
"Cliff said - "By... sunsnow12 said...<br /><br /> "Cliff said - "By the time it is over, Oregon will have a normal snowpack."<br /><br /> They have had a normal snowpack for weeks Cliff. In fact way above normal in eastern Oregon. This only adds to it."<br /><br />If you had run this report only a few days ago, it would have looked much different, particularly for Oregon:<br /><br />https://fortress.wa.gov/ecy/wrdocs/WaterRights/wrwebpdf/wtrsupplyupdate-02222018.pdf<br /><br />Keep in mind that from a global warming perspective, the comparisons are for the period 1981 to present. The research showing decreased snowpack looks at a much longer historical period.<br /><br />Even with what seems like a lot of snow, most of the northwest is still not much better than average for the comparison period.<br /><br />MAC in Bellinghamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00951163853106956325noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-57638763919088484242019-02-25T12:41:44.084-08:002019-02-25T12:41:44.084-08:00I'm glad this snow event skipped Seattle, Clif...I'm glad this snow event skipped Seattle, Cliff. Also, it's good Oregon's snow pack with benefit. Great job predicting the outcome!<br /><br />Cold temps with sunny skies feel pretty good to me right now--like home. My plan is to soak up some rays. Sharonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01122154083786146743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-28612599999091995042019-02-25T12:32:48.294-08:002019-02-25T12:32:48.294-08:00Cliff said - "By the time it is over, Oregon ...Cliff said - "By the time it is over, Oregon will have a normal snowpack."<br /><br />They have had a normal snowpack for weeks Cliff. In fact way above normal in eastern Oregon. This only adds to it.<br /><br />What stats are you using to suggest they aren't? Even the USDA maps show virtually the entire state at or above 100%. Eastern OR by section today: 135%, 137%, 123%, 148% etc. https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/west_swepctnormal_update.pdf<br /><br />BTW... where are the people who told us ad nauseum last fall that Oregon was headed for a drought this year? The ones who spread fear on a weekly basis... any accountability for that (once again) stunningly wrong forecast?sunsnow12https://www.blogger.com/profile/16856025812008113046noreply@blogger.com