tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post8781718719897769384..comments2024-03-28T23:07:35.632-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: The Safety of Outdoor Air for Coronavirus Is Now ObviousCliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger54125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-18524607398322087662020-07-18T09:44:27.679-07:002020-07-18T09:44:27.679-07:00https://www.newsweek.com/500-delta-airline-staff-t...https://www.newsweek.com/500-delta-airline-staff-test-positive-coronavirus-10-dead-1513016Tim!https://www.blogger.com/profile/08020958201438047629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-70029520990056905452020-07-13T23:09:08.961-07:002020-07-13T23:09:08.961-07:00These are unprecedented times with the coronavirus...These are unprecedented times with the <a href="https://supportbusiness.co.za/" rel="nofollow">coronavirus business safety</a>. People have seen great changes in the way of life with the closing of businesses and stay at home orders.Angelahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15858286851370354243noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-33941974443341268612020-07-06T20:10:07.270-07:002020-07-06T20:10:07.270-07:00where did you pull the data for the positivity rat...where did you pull the data for the positivity rate graph? I used the data from https://www.kingcounty.gov/depts/health/covid-19/data/daily-summary.aspx and did a 7 day moving average of positivity rate -- I see a bottom of 1.61% 7 day moving avg on May 29, a rise up to 2.1% on 6/4, a drop to 1.5% on 6/12, and then a steady climb back up from there. a big chunk of that may be the UW frat row cases rather than protests...but the shape of my data is different than yours so wondering your source.Jeremyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11606646374642255572noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-88891597780233255122020-07-03T23:23:11.880-07:002020-07-03T23:23:11.880-07:00Cliff,
I agreed with your blog, but there were fe...Cliff,<br /><br />I agreed with your blog, but there were few comments upon my initial reading. Now, I am surprised at the comments that are critical. It seems you have made it very clear and that people simply need to follow recommendations and expect people to be frustrated at this point in the pandemic process. Finally, know right, do right and accept it until another strategy is available.Sharonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01122154083786146743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-49334491771735993002020-07-03T17:59:54.184-07:002020-07-03T17:59:54.184-07:00Thanks for the post Cliff. You inspired me to do a...Thanks for the post Cliff. You inspired me to do a little google researching to see what other commentators around the world were saying on this. My not cherry picked set of findings is generally supportive. I plan to email my representatives about this.<br />https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/closing-parks-ineffective-pandemic-theater/609580/<br />https://www.vox.com/2020/4/30/21232696/reopen-parks-coronavirus-covid-19<br />https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/13/keep-parks-open-benefits-fresh-air-outweigh-risks-infection/<br /><br /> Dan Eisenberghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17346683956118701017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-91724275969112427352020-07-03T09:58:32.120-07:002020-07-03T09:58:32.120-07:00Thank you for your well-thought data-driven scient...Thank you for your well-thought data-driven scientific commentaries. (Over the years.)<br /><br />Another review of the data that I am interested in would be the death data. Has the morbidity trend of COVID-19 declined over the weeks?<br />Are the generally "healthy" population groups "safe" from COVID-19 death? (For example as compared to the other ways that people die.) <br />Would our society and economic health be better served by isolating unhealthy people from risk of COVID-19?GShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09131587230253851904noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-19088644110686391832020-07-03T09:57:02.658-07:002020-07-03T09:57:02.658-07:00Yes, please publish such a hypothesis.
Another rev...Yes, please publish such a hypothesis.<br />Another review of the data that I am interested in would be the death data. Has the morbidity trend of COVID-19 declined over the weeks?<br />Are the generally "healthy" population groups "safe" from COVID-19 death? (For example as compared to the other ways that people die.) Would our society and economic health be better served by isolating unhealthy people from risk of COVID-19?GShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09131587230253851904noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-1666981159986575062020-07-03T09:51:01.890-07:002020-07-03T09:51:01.890-07:00Agreed.Agreed.GShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09131587230253851904noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-49403002586469980732020-07-02T22:33:50.056-07:002020-07-02T22:33:50.056-07:00I am puzzled by some of the comments. Whether peop...I am puzzled by some of the comments. Whether people seek to be outdoor by traveling from home or going to a local park the fact is they are outside. The alternative? Well, staying inside. How can that possibly be safer? FYI, my wife and I, both in our 80's, live at the beach. We see the inlanders invade. They are welcome to enjoy themselves. Being in the most at risk category We will avoid the hoards, indoors or out. Life is worth living. For everyone. OregonJonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02002764391760504870noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-72655625969825091972020-07-02T21:04:51.409-07:002020-07-02T21:04:51.409-07:00I agree with most of this...
but...
I think the ma...I agree with most of this...<br />but...<br />I think the main reason for keeping pouplar state parks clowed is not the state park it self, but rather that people also get into local services like shoppin and restaurants. That's how my county has gotten the first corona cases. People visiting from King county because Seattle restaurants were closed and our could be open. This was in March.<br />Another thing with outdoor face coverings is that you can only control your own distance to others, but you cant control how fast others pop up in your proximity when waling on a relatively empty sidewalk "downtown"....<br /><br />However corona virus is airborne depends on whether there is carries particles in the air. A dry summer day in AZ is probably less likely to transmit virus than a foggy day in San Francisco or a humid day in Seattle. Smoke from smokers has also been seen carrying virus...<br />akkamaanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17071801031769566311noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-68173251076079193612020-07-02T16:05:43.255-07:002020-07-02T16:05:43.255-07:00I notice that a lot of people step off the sidewal...I notice that a lot of people step off the sidewalk onto a busy street just to avoid being within 6 feet from another person. Is this the interpretation of "stay safe"?EuropeanManhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16989032380024260304noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-26620303659801611772020-07-02T15:43:17.963-07:002020-07-02T15:43:17.963-07:00The mass media has been ignoring that the number o...The mass media has been ignoring that the number of COVID-19 deaths has remained mostly unchanged despite the increase in infections. A couple of days ago the reported value was zero. Early in April where the number of infections peaked, the number of COVID-19 deaths peaked a few days later. Now it seems that the number of deaths is not following the number of infections. The explanation could be that elderly people have been isolated or self-isolating while now younger people are getting infected but are (fortunately) much less likely to have life threatening consequences from it. This points out how isolating senior homes and recommending elderly people to avoid contact with others indoor may be enough to handle the crisis.<br /><br />Concerning masks, there is no evidence that cotton masks and very little evidence that surgical masks prevent spreading the virus. If you are in close contact with elderly people indoor it may make sense to wear a surgical mask especially if they have heart conditions, in all other situations you can leave it in the gloves compartment.EuropeanManhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16989032380024260304noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-45800590752204009362020-07-02T15:07:43.512-07:002020-07-02T15:07:43.512-07:00Here is one estimate from a scientific paper prepr...Here is one estimate from a scientific paper preprint:<br />https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.28.20029272v2<br />Closed environments facilitate secondary transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)<br /><br />"The odds that a primary case transmitted COVID-19 in a closed environment was 18.7 times greater compared to an open-air environment (95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.0, 57.9)."<br /><br />But also look at this:<br />https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/what-is-the-evidence-to-support-the-2-metre-social-distancing-rule-to-reduce-covid-19-transmission/<br /><br />"Smaller airborne droplets laden with SARS-CoV-2 may spread up to 8 metres concentrated in exhaled air from infected individuals, even without background ventilation or airflow. Whilst there is limited direct evidence that live SARS-CoV-2 is significantly spread via this route, there is no direct evidence that it is not spread this way.Scott Langleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17113514698104664020noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-22422373020301963232020-07-02T14:39:18.014-07:002020-07-02T14:39:18.014-07:00I've worked in an industry that required me to...I've worked in an industry that required me to wear a mask or full cartridge respirator for about 50 years, plus sold them for about 25 years. So I know they aren't 100%, nothing is 100% effective in life. <br /><br />We can take the worst case scenario in the testing you linked and say it's 30% effective. <br /><br />Add the small number of people without the 30% protection, but still all of them being outdoors. This makes a 30% factor still significant. <br /><br />That's why it was predicted in advance to not be an event that would spike the numbers. <br /><br />I just happened to have some N95 masks around before all this happened, so thats all I use. <br /><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12977146087390242750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-90986815108080803652020-07-02T14:24:30.190-07:002020-07-02T14:24:30.190-07:00We've had an extended period of strong coastal...We've had an extended period of strong coastal westerly winds. Will this "turn over," the eastern Pacific, bringing colder deep water to the surface? Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07823315812583725126noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-89189320085274657922020-07-02T13:10:22.536-07:002020-07-02T13:10:22.536-07:00It is important to keep in mind that masks are NOT...It is important to keep in mind that masks are NOT 100% effective. One study (https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/07/01/880621610/a-users-guide-to-masks-what-s-best-at-protecting-others-and-yourself) suggests they are closer 30%. So just because folks wear masks does NOT mean there is no exposure. Masks are certainly useful in REDUCING but not eliminating emission of COVID or breathing it in...Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-86188464043931737642020-07-02T12:20:32.724-07:002020-07-02T12:20:32.724-07:00It was explained by one of the of experts as to wh...It was explained by one of the of experts as to why the protests probably wouldn't make a big impact. <br /><br />90% wear masks, of the 10% that don't only 5% of them are potentially infected (number that test positive in society). <br /><br />This 5% needs to come in contact with the 10% that aren't wearing masks and aren't infected. <br /><br />Add in the outdoor effect of poorer transmission and you end up with almost nothing. <br /><br />What results is such a small number of new infections from the actual protest it wouldn't show up in the count. <br /><br />60-70% is where the herd immunity starts to take effect. So with 90% wearing masks, and being outside, it plays out to be a non event. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12977146087390242750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-48665674949901042872020-07-02T09:29:57.193-07:002020-07-02T09:29:57.193-07:00Unfortunately our government officials are control...Unfortunately our government officials are control freaks. They are more interested in controlling people than in applying good science.<br />Hiker Dudehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14615856261061794739noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-60717371049227735572020-07-02T09:29:16.309-07:002020-07-02T09:29:16.309-07:00Thanks Cliff. I know there are many difference bet...Thanks Cliff. I know there are many difference between how WA has handled reopening vs. the South and Southwest, but I have wondered if part of it (a large part) is that air conditioning is so prevalent in those areas. Might explain why CA is having problems too. Of course the NE and Midwest use air conditioning too, but these areas have a lot more humidity.Ellen Khttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05310442085278437157noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-82382707899652717742020-07-01T18:54:52.664-07:002020-07-01T18:54:52.664-07:00The BOW WA Weather reporting rock-on-a-string has ...The BOW WA Weather reporting rock-on-a-string has been wet and dribbled on all day today, Apriuly 1. It was supposed to be less than .1 inch instead of the .45 or so. Even weather experts are not right all the time - just sayin'RGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02017190779860810318noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-10695437786130379442020-07-01T18:35:42.335-07:002020-07-01T18:35:42.335-07:00Two reasons why I don't wear a mask when exerc...Two reasons why I don't wear a mask when exercising: 1) Those of us like me who need glasses have to put up with fogging up especially when breathing hard reducing vision; and 2) those of us like me who like to push ourselves need more oxygen than you can suck though any mask except a forced-air mechanical breathing system. Wearing a mask slightly increases your "dead volume", that is, the air in your windpipe that is not refreshed at every breath. The air behind the mask is not refreshed effectively at the exhale. I notice the difference even climbing stairs- and I'm in pretty good aerobic shape. This effect is even worse if it is raining and the fabric is wet: Remember waterboarding?Anselhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13835758313287462921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-81533633468712027952020-07-01T17:57:29.273-07:002020-07-01T17:57:29.273-07:00Thank you for getting into the science behind why ...Thank you for getting into the science behind why its safe to go outside. I find it interesting that many European countries are doing so much better than us and they did not close down all their parks. I saw a video of a crowded German farmers market where everyone was wearing masks. The protests and the German market show it is safe to be in a crowd of people outside if you are wearing a mask and you don't need a mask if you can maintain social distance. The number of cases is going up alittle bit but I suspect its due to the easing of the lockdown not the protests. Its true that it takes 3 weeks for the full effects of the protest to be known but if the protests were spreading the virus the number of cases would have started to rise within 1 week of the first protest. The number of cases did start to rise about 1 week after King County went into phase 2 so loosening restrictions are likely to blame. Even with this increase we are doing alot better than most states and we are one of the few states that is doing as well as the European Union, I don't think we should panick yet. Storm1https://www.blogger.com/profile/15032533387012414371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-35758825019107812992020-07-01T17:39:23.461-07:002020-07-01T17:39:23.461-07:00I don't wear a mask when I am climbing up a mo...I don't wear a mask when I am climbing up a mountain trail. The mountain air is thinner and climbing a steep a hill is hard work, a mask would leave me too out of breath. I don't worry about not wearing a mask because for most of the hike I am alone and there is little chance of me spreading the virus when I quickly walk by one or two people. If I encounter a big group I step off the trail until they have passed. When I was training for high school cross country races there were a few times where I tried to run with a mild cold, I hardly noticed the cold before the run but within minutes it became obvious I was not well and by the end of the run I was miserable. I came to the conclusion that I couldn't do a really effective workout when I had a cold and it was best to pause my training until the cold passed. The point I am trying to make is if you have the energy for a cardiovascular work out you are not sick. Even if people with mild cases of COVID would notice when they exerted themselves. Storm1https://www.blogger.com/profile/15032533387012414371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-87679109001211577182020-07-01T16:50:17.458-07:002020-07-01T16:50:17.458-07:00My first comment!
Glad to see the note about sol...My first comment! <br /><br />Glad to see the note about solar radiation. Direct sunlight kills. UV disinfects in seconds. Time to open parks and playgrounds.PNW Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10040462552092662044noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-91655618600747732272020-07-01T16:23:10.965-07:002020-07-01T16:23:10.965-07:00I viewed several dozen pictures.... 90% is about r...I viewed several dozen pictures.... 90% is about right I think.Example:<br />https://apnews.com/56bce7fd6a210ff1c9c66f6f8a5b1ba6<br /><br />https://magicvalley.com/news/state-and-regional/inslee-slams-trump-seattle-george-floyd-protests-continue/article_6bbe2430-8a23-5026-869c-b935f4d20c7b.html<br /><br />Can easily provide a dozen more...Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.com