tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-74786066529509059562024-03-19T01:46:19.859-07:00Cliff Mass Weather BlogThis blog discusses current weather, weather prediction, climate issues, and current eventsCliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger3318125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-14405554048996774582024-03-18T05:30:00.000-07:002024-03-18T05:30:00.136-07:00Should I Let AI Write My Blogs?<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><b>I spend a lot of time thinking about and writing my blogs. </b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Could AI apps do the work for me? Could any of you tell the difference?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjPXKOE16eS-hmZXrRpEJttKZZT1uUYxk9tv8-2wGu72abRf7s-1oo0uc2R3CunmDo9VBA0d0jzIvwx1s8yjQgfJMSBRBrjN2n7w3kjGmmSgHu0TrOrbPBjOtoBQCO_bfo_uAqqiPG55d89ll1xfDnFtzB0k8i5ktPd62Ar2RK2AXs8yqi0yxWMkJapfAs" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="620" data-original-width="1006" height="130" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjPXKOE16eS-hmZXrRpEJttKZZT1uUYxk9tv8-2wGu72abRf7s-1oo0uc2R3CunmDo9VBA0d0jzIvwx1s8yjQgfJMSBRBrjN2n7w3kjGmmSgHu0TrOrbPBjOtoBQCO_bfo_uAqqiPG55d89ll1xfDnFtzB0k8i5ktPd62Ar2RK2AXs8yqi0yxWMkJapfAs=w211-h130" width="211" /></a></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Well, let's give them a test! First I asked Google's Gemini to write a blog in my style on the subject of the Puget Sound Convergence Zone. Here is its attempt:</span></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">_________________________</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Exploring the Mysteries of the Puget Sound Convergence Zone</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Welcome back, weather enthusiasts! Today, we delve into one of the most intriguing and mystifying phenomena that grace the skies of the Pacific Northwest: the Puget Sound Convergence Zone (PSCZ). Nestled in the heart of the Puget Sound region, this atmospheric feature often leaves residents scratching their heads in wonder and meteorologists pondering its intricacies.</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">What is the Puget Sound Convergence Zone?</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Imagine a meteorological ballet, where air masses gracefully pirouette and swirl, creating a symphony of weather patterns. Such is the essence of the Puget Sound Convergence Zone. Picture a convergence of air masses, where maritime air from the Pacific Ocean collides with colder, denser air from the interior of the continent. This collision sets the stage for a spectacle of cloud formation, precipitation, and atmospheric dynamics.</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The Dance of the Elements</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">As maritime air flows inland from the Pacific, it encounters the towering peaks of the Olympic and Cascade mountain ranges. Forced to rise, this moist air cools and condenses, giving birth to clouds and precipitation. Meanwhile, colder air masses from the east press against this maritime flow, creating a zone of convergence where the two air masses meet.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">In this convergence zone, the air is forced to rise even further, intensifying cloud development and precipitation. The result? A narrow band of enhanced rainfall, stretching from the northern reaches of Puget Sound down to its southern shores. This band of precipitation can be quite localized, with areas just a few miles apart experiencing vastly different weather conditions.</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The Influence of Topography</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Ah, the intricacies of topography! Just as a conductor guides an orchestra, so too does the landscape orchestrate the movements of atmospheric elements. The Puget Sound Convergence Zone owes much of its existence to the unique geography of the region.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The presence of the Olympic and Cascade mountain ranges plays a crucial role in shaping the PSCZ. As air masses encounter these towering barriers, they are forced to ascend, setting the stage for convergence and atmospheric drama. Additionally, the complex network of valleys, fjords, and inlets further influences the behavior of the convergence zone, guiding its movements and intensifying its effects in certain areas.</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Forecasting the Unpredictable</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Ah, the eternal challenge of weather forecasting! While meteorologists have made great strides in understanding the Puget Sound Convergence Zone, predicting its exact behavior remains a daunting task. The narrow and transient nature of the convergence zone poses a challenge for forecasters, who must rely on a combination of observational data, computer models, and sheer intuition to anticipate its movements.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">However, despite its unpredictable nature, the PSCZ has not eluded the watchful eye of science. Advances in weather modeling and observational technologies have provided new insights into the dynamics of this atmospheric phenomenon, helping forecasters better anticipate its impacts and provide timely warnings to residents.</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Embracing the Mystique</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">In a region renowned for its diverse and dynamic weather, the Puget Sound Convergence Zone stands out as a testament to the intricate interplay of atmospheric forces. Its ever-shifting patterns and elusive nature serve as a reminder of the awe-inspiring complexity of the natural world.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">So, the next time you find yourself caught in a sudden downpour or gazing up at a mesmerizing display of clouds, take a moment to appreciate the mysteries of the Puget Sound Convergence Zone. For in its swirling mists and fleeting rains, we find a glimpse of the wondrous dance of nature.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Until next time, weather aficionados, keep your eyes on the skies and your hearts open to the marvels of the atmospheric world.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">_____________________________</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><b>Evaluation</b>: A lot of technical errors. The convergence is NOT produced by ocean air hitting air from the interior. The precipitation is NOT from the northern to the southern shores of Puget Sound. Many more things are wrong. <b>My grade: F.</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh_0p7nuxlY2z5NSx-FFtj-_I4soGxOB9djncBW644F-he3guwNuv_FpH_XxCjtBCEa5DtT_sR3iCbvv7KmP1YNTQos9Xd6sW3m0sn15SQ2c74xxa3hvL5PEuvOzbnj9pfXOoj-LEJxtGbKHwBVEH4r53o3wVTR9cnJorHWgRb3r_RdDYxuQDic4eiMYks" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="398" data-original-width="1080" height="118" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh_0p7nuxlY2z5NSx-FFtj-_I4soGxOB9djncBW644F-he3guwNuv_FpH_XxCjtBCEa5DtT_sR3iCbvv7KmP1YNTQos9Xd6sW3m0sn15SQ2c74xxa3hvL5PEuvOzbnj9pfXOoj-LEJxtGbKHwBVEH4r53o3wVTR9cnJorHWgRb3r_RdDYxuQDic4eiMYks" width="320" /></a></div><div><br /></div>Now let's try the same prompt with Google's Gemini AI app:</span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">_________________________________________</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The Persistent Puget Sound Convergence Zone: A PNW Weather Staple</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Ah, the Puget Sound Convergence Zone (PSCZ). Our moody friend that brings sunshine to some and drenches others, often within spitting distance of each other. For those unfamiliar, the PSCZ is a band of clouds and, more importantly, precipitation that forms when prevailing winds encounter the Olympic Mountains.</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Splitting Hairs (and Winds) Over the Olympics</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Imagine air flowing west-to-east, like a giant river of air. The Olympic Mountains act like a giant rock in the stream, forcing the air to split around it. One branch travels north, the other south, before they come together again over Puget Sound. This "convergence" zone is where the magic (or should I say, moisture) happens.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">As the air converges, it's forced upwards. Remember, as air rises, it cools. Cooler air holds less moisture, and bingo! - condensation and precipitation form. This is why you can be sipping a latte in a cozy cafe while your friend across the Sound is battling downpours.</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Where's the Party? (The Rainy One, That Is)</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The PSCZ isn't a stationary weather system. It tends to favor a sweet spot between Everett and north Seattle, but can meander as far south as SeaTac. This creates a frustrating situation for forecasters (yours truly included) - predicting the exact path of this convergence zone can be a tricky business.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">However, there are some clues. North-south wind direction shifts are a dead giveaway - if you see northerly winds in Everett and southerly winds in Seattle, you know the PSCZ is probably setting up shop in between.</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The Not-So-Gentle Giant</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">While the PSCZ is known for rain showers, it can pack a punch. Updrafts within the convergence zone can lead to thunderstorms and even heavier precipitation. These downpours can cause localized flooding, so it's always wise to be aware of the PSCZ, especially during the fall and winter when these events are most common.</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Living with the PSCZ</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The PSCZ is a fact of life here in the Pacific Northwest. But hey, at least it keeps things interesting! By understanding how it works, you can be better prepared for those sudden weather changes. Keep an eye on the forecast, especially for wind direction shifts, and you'll be one step ahead of the ever-shifting PSCZ.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Stay weather-aware, Seattle!</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">P.S. Got a PSCZ story? Share it in the comments below!</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">_______________________________</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><b>My Evaluation: </b> Not bad! Most of the information is technically correct, FAR better than Chatgpt</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Finally, sometimes I do blogs on "controversial" topics, such as the hype and exaggeration regarding climate change in local media (especially the Seattle Times). I asked both chatgpt and Gemini their opinions of the Seattle Times ClimateLab efforts, which hopelessly hype global warming in contradiction to the best science. Here are their answers:</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiec23fmv69DYgWSpqzC6r_9cveiMoakWDAzNoOUNXde9VUw-yGPeh1F-pGCDxkxzsmZDAUCM0yq68I118-bySMtz74VF1iXAapuRbz70O4CpWrzChNooDHeDtA1saAQpLCGvcnnKDw8bUaMCBWoHRdUSf0mPNJUOOs0FyAUWqZ6_R6hzlY0lowZAVC0-M/s1548/Screenshot%202024-03-17%20at%209.22.39%20PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="330" data-original-width="1548" height="94" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiec23fmv69DYgWSpqzC6r_9cveiMoakWDAzNoOUNXde9VUw-yGPeh1F-pGCDxkxzsmZDAUCM0yq68I118-bySMtz74VF1iXAapuRbz70O4CpWrzChNooDHeDtA1saAQpLCGvcnnKDw8bUaMCBWoHRdUSf0mPNJUOOs0FyAUWqZ6_R6hzlY0lowZAVC0-M/w443-h94/Screenshot%202024-03-17%20at%209.22.39%20PM.png" width="443" /></span></a><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiec23fmv69DYgWSpqzC6r_9cveiMoakWDAzNoOUNXde9VUw-yGPeh1F-pGCDxkxzsmZDAUCM0yq68I118-bySMtz74VF1iXAapuRbz70O4CpWrzChNooDHeDtA1saAQpLCGvcnnKDw8bUaMCBWoHRdUSf0mPNJUOOs0FyAUWqZ6_R6hzlY0lowZAVC0-M/s1548/Screenshot%202024-03-17%20at%209.22.39%20PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8Xx9GnbM3j2Vl7q2DP8QOpHiwLQofJvNckbtR__iSqi2mdN_5D5kK914i8AiFIL6sak-UGpqTs1dqtRdfCidk113LYLI7VTsZP4SJthhaEskrREJqnl69vsR5bBlLdK2kml7pgpZFE01Rqbz9UTKB7U1QdHdOaGg3qFFoXuC4hQzvqZPrRIFV17Gds4U/s1236/Screenshot%202024-03-17%20at%209.22.03%20PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="332" data-original-width="1236" height="114" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8Xx9GnbM3j2Vl7q2DP8QOpHiwLQofJvNckbtR__iSqi2mdN_5D5kK914i8AiFIL6sak-UGpqTs1dqtRdfCidk113LYLI7VTsZP4SJthhaEskrREJqnl69vsR5bBlLdK2kml7pgpZFE01Rqbz9UTKB7U1QdHdOaGg3qFFoXuC4hQzvqZPrRIFV17Gds4U/w424-h114/Screenshot%202024-03-17%20at%209.22.03%20PM.png" width="424" /></a></div></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">I guess I better say on the job for a while...</span></div>Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-88692181829497899722024-03-16T21:38:00.000-07:002024-03-16T21:38:35.610-07:00Most Northwest Heatwaves are Local<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"> <b>Northwest heatwaves are funny things. </b> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">It is rare to have a heatwave over the entire region. Instead, real warmth is generally restricted to a distinct subset of the region.</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Why is this the case, you ask? </span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Because of the complex regional terrain and land/water contrasts.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj_zEuQbNn-fZYXTykaLs178_PN_f7bErJPdNRTdaqTjPxJzoqm1VrTxtAPEzCqkgmduhEQioZovirUElO1PMdKpQ9TQ-rNg9-CZA9kfSPKi1lxJxwknN_qndzTsKS6vJkvCA7MGjmucgmT1oZqmHWpjHnckenTihIeEKmsGR-t7_OovklUopx7WvkcRr4" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="583" data-original-width="750" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj_zEuQbNn-fZYXTykaLs178_PN_f7bErJPdNRTdaqTjPxJzoqm1VrTxtAPEzCqkgmduhEQioZovirUElO1PMdKpQ9TQ-rNg9-CZA9kfSPKi1lxJxwknN_qndzTsKS6vJkvCA7MGjmucgmT1oZqmHWpjHnckenTihIeEKmsGR-t7_OovklUopx7WvkcRr4" width="309" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br />Since the regional waters are cold, onshore flow is cool, but offshore flow (particularly during the warm portion of the year) is warm.</span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Downslope warm is warm, since the air warms by compression as it sinks, and sinking kills clouds (and thus more sun). Upslope flow is cooled by expansion in addition to associated clouds and precipitation.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Consider the "heatwave" of yesterday (Friday) and today (Saturday). Let's start with the high temperatures on Friday around the Olympic peninsula. Temperatures were in the fifties around Sequim, Port Angeles, and Port Townsend, but in the 70s south and southwest of the Olympics. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaconMXGE9pInmdzhvVFoIejzoEIIC9gFSNG1WvO08j-tbcjX4jm-do9_9c81C7rbAdeX9FrCIpwhFVIW45m1HucXct47N4IPJJE8-Roq__4JmVTjXTNBTBzt1IgHtnP8S1eZBxzt6lty4UZv9evd2qLHLBNhGdFdNCUKlS3F6Plz2uwpqHlcc1gp6MRM/s2454/Screenshot%202024-03-16%20at%205.16.10%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1548" data-original-width="2454" height="284" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaconMXGE9pInmdzhvVFoIejzoEIIC9gFSNG1WvO08j-tbcjX4jm-do9_9c81C7rbAdeX9FrCIpwhFVIW45m1HucXct47N4IPJJE8-Roq__4JmVTjXTNBTBzt1IgHtnP8S1eZBxzt6lty4UZv9evd2qLHLBNhGdFdNCUKlS3F6Plz2uwpqHlcc1gp6MRM/w450-h284/Screenshot%202024-03-16%20at%205.16.10%20PM.png" width="450" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">TWENTY DEGREE DIFFERENCE!</span><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Why? Because the winds were generally northerly (from the north) over the lower atmosphere, so the northern Peninsula had cool air from off the Strait, plus upslope flow. In contrast, the air sank down the southern slopes and warmed before it reached the warm zone to the southwest and south.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Today, Saturday, the regional flow turned more easterly, a direction that strengthens the downslope to the western slopes of the Cascades and Olympics. With easterly flow, the warmest temperatures are often near the western foothills of mountain barriers.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The local high temperatures near and east of Seattle today illustrate this (see below).</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Temperature role to 80F in Carnation. Mid-70s on the east side, but 50s and 60s near Puget Sound. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2FkD0sAMxx5aj5UTJBwhNjkPmXJTnQPetHpmeVroVew1Rg6bzt9Rpw-AphR1jofR9j71XC_-CIP1_0wD86LpB7_sxTLRGUtvR5hNnRZ-tYmWO9nIOmDfbAVKMomJQEeWZ3VjPk8JzAZl0VNY1W6rCwrxv_90ohrzBMi5Y9V-ARmVGrMRiSsXXPRYs0ds/s2540/Screenshot%202024-03-16%20at%205.14.58%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1424" data-original-width="2540" height="294" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2FkD0sAMxx5aj5UTJBwhNjkPmXJTnQPetHpmeVroVew1Rg6bzt9Rpw-AphR1jofR9j71XC_-CIP1_0wD86LpB7_sxTLRGUtvR5hNnRZ-tYmWO9nIOmDfbAVKMomJQEeWZ3VjPk8JzAZl0VNY1W6rCwrxv_90ohrzBMi5Y9V-ARmVGrMRiSsXXPRYs0ds/w526-h294/Screenshot%202024-03-16%20at%205.14.58%20PM.png" width="526" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">There has been some talk in the media and some climate activist groups that the warmest temperatures are in south Seattle in the urban core. This is generally NOT true during western Washington heatwaves, which generally occur with easterly, downslope flow. The eastern side of the Metro area, away from the water and near the slopes, is generally warmest. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Those poor folks in Duvall, Carnation, Monroe, North Bend, Issaquah, and other foothills towns. If you really want to see this, below is a high-resolution simulation of the temperatures today at 2 PM around the central Sound area:</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhZeKVGT4ftVs0IQdLzdmrYnrBMVpGnFdeEqJ_RovWeueopkLkuoO8LrTnj74SACJ9eu46UMDXHy9Js-Xh-zYa-gtZOKGHFXBA3Pv488D8QC-9NWS6YXRzzZAwb_idigoXWYVMaB8vcfoE7C_4R8gM3-B2xU97lPwZX2cT_B1vbm9yBzF4usPWCTPDr7Co" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1136" data-original-width="988" height="382" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhZeKVGT4ftVs0IQdLzdmrYnrBMVpGnFdeEqJ_RovWeueopkLkuoO8LrTnj74SACJ9eu46UMDXHy9Js-Xh-zYa-gtZOKGHFXBA3Pv488D8QC-9NWS6YXRzzZAwb_idigoXWYVMaB8vcfoE7C_4R8gM3-B2xU97lPwZX2cT_B1vbm9yBzF4usPWCTPDr7Co=w333-h382" width="333" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Finally, let's consider the southern portion of our region, from central Oregon into northern California, on Friday, a period of moderate easterly flow (see below). Mid-70s on the coast, but only in the 50s over the desert area of eastern Oregon. The offshore, easterly flow sank of two mountain ranges (Cascades and the coastal terrain) and the cool marine air was pushed offshore.</span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: start;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrNRwNoVzjdSWUgKl7QQUNqIU1RhToqjXk5tk_tdf3fcBcqepMPxo8LY5fPTYJj2ti7mVXwvVGkkFKon3TYP1X4WzZkepYVf4DOl-flwfH-QFY7T1Qkho7-surVMNxLzkW9keyoYSB3KYMPMzmdtP8j1W_ovEwDlt3pZOef5J5veEbGa6_Vt8fEl2TgjY/s2454/Screenshot%202024-03-16%20at%205.18.28%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1548" data-original-width="2454" height="334" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrNRwNoVzjdSWUgKl7QQUNqIU1RhToqjXk5tk_tdf3fcBcqepMPxo8LY5fPTYJj2ti7mVXwvVGkkFKon3TYP1X4WzZkepYVf4DOl-flwfH-QFY7T1Qkho7-surVMNxLzkW9keyoYSB3KYMPMzmdtP8j1W_ovEwDlt3pZOef5J5veEbGa6_Vt8fEl2TgjY/w528-h334/Screenshot%202024-03-16%20at%205.18.28%20PM.png" width="528" /></span></a></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The simulated surface temperatures on Friday at 5 PM illustrate this temperature pattern even better:</span></div><div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgobu4KjKxtyorUEnJ7GfjLrOeiQ-m16PSbzj7NQk54XzEg0_ZcxPI7ijbP4AAE6PAbAs3a-bZJSY_O3oQgJ6Bd6RughKdItEvjRzC0lzdiCuKzxdTWliAeSqb5rLTwTyDW15BU3PRWGMggpwx-r638MbEgkKzbaan3Y32ulq3guBHrOKCfLRnUpLsePP0" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1384" data-original-width="1662" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgobu4KjKxtyorUEnJ7GfjLrOeiQ-m16PSbzj7NQk54XzEg0_ZcxPI7ijbP4AAE6PAbAs3a-bZJSY_O3oQgJ6Bd6RughKdItEvjRzC0lzdiCuKzxdTWliAeSqb5rLTwTyDW15BU3PRWGMggpwx-r638MbEgkKzbaan3Y32ulq3guBHrOKCfLRnUpLsePP0=w384-h320" width="384" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br />Enjoy this warm interlude. It won't last, by Wednesday the cool/wetness will return. But it sure was wonderful today. I even got to work on my vegetable garden. 😁</span><p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p></div>Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-81980880727481181712024-03-14T06:00:00.000-07:002024-03-14T06:00:00.131-07:00Huge Increase in Snowpack Since January 1<p><span style="font-size: medium;">There has been a substantial amount of gnashing of teeth about the lower-than-average snowpack this winter, but the truth is that t<b>he situation has gotten immensely better</b>.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">On January 1st, the situation seemed dire (below), with much of the region at less than 50% of normal snowpack. The Olympics was at 19-22% and major sections of western Oregon were as low and lower.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiU6e-dvCn-IDVoOPOu_fbJ2z5uJE-uWn6szVh6M1Bd9fcDlfRqltntEqOGwC1y5RT4spaIq8Bnh_G6JcBJ_UNIykbKnyybWNkuwz3WYC8luF8J8uPr3S4FcAfTs_QdoYRnPlUZBFoT64tS-SIi40YBGcrHZcF50kqqisWlAiQYT2MLPqwR8iVscfO1UHg/s2132/Screenshot%202024-03-13%20at%207.54.15%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1994" data-original-width="2132" height="597" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiU6e-dvCn-IDVoOPOu_fbJ2z5uJE-uWn6szVh6M1Bd9fcDlfRqltntEqOGwC1y5RT4spaIq8Bnh_G6JcBJ_UNIykbKnyybWNkuwz3WYC8luF8J8uPr3S4FcAfTs_QdoYRnPlUZBFoT64tS-SIi40YBGcrHZcF50kqqisWlAiQYT2MLPqwR8iVscfO1UHg/w639-h597/Screenshot%202024-03-13%20at%207.54.15%20PM.png" width="639" /></span></a></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-size: medium;">No wonder many in the media and elsewhere were talking about a snow apocalypse! But such a snow end-times did not occur, with an immense amount of snow falling over the region during the past two months.</span><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">Consider the situation yesterday (below). </span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">Most of Oregon is now above 100% with large sections (blue color) MORE THAN 150% of normal. The Olympics went from roughly 20% to over 60%, roughly a three-fold increase. Large areas of the Rockies that were below 50% are now 65-100%. The southern Cascades went from around 20% to roughly 100% and the critical Yakima drainage is above 80%.<br /></span><div><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjt8ilJUa84-POOCYlf1Lk-55YEYRy8o8JZNNcL6RoxVeplUWBZ31v5P5v9ZYGfEbV9KiNNtEvoQClivYU0YHGAIX0OY4msq4QG2-YrYOIrfkaOeAq_SjCQH9LyZ-319TZkVoy8u7LBxNuM1NNwSw5aWnI4jXxY5m0RL9QXTc9Uwl2bMYY9grsMDhLYAHc/s2114/Screenshot%202024-03-13%20at%207.51.09%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1856" data-original-width="2114" height="473" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjt8ilJUa84-POOCYlf1Lk-55YEYRy8o8JZNNcL6RoxVeplUWBZ31v5P5v9ZYGfEbV9KiNNtEvoQClivYU0YHGAIX0OY4msq4QG2-YrYOIrfkaOeAq_SjCQH9LyZ-319TZkVoy8u7LBxNuM1NNwSw5aWnI4jXxY5m0RL9QXTc9Uwl2bMYY9grsMDhLYAHc/w539-h473/Screenshot%202024-03-13%20at%207.51.09%20PM.png" width="539" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">I could go on and on....the improvements have been huge and there is no looming water shortage in our region. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The NOAA/NWS River Forecast Center in Portland predicts the region streamflows 120 days in advance. The latest prediction (see below) for the period through July is for above-normal streamflow for Oregon and southwest Washington, but approximately 75-80% over the remainder of the region. We can live with that. So can the salmon.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinYRyK8hII9YZxynIX89PhdcCA-j2mevtjvH_RM6pWGl5ht779-cDZ2Bg9HcqdatyyAnTZwB48bEnLcikOFgRB0Ps-IBYX5kDNAZI-xIsBObBZfWv8D7PfEytxi9xh1CJn14vQuFBn_YNAqpB293IXbr3o_ri9UqsM681tpxZx00NkFWp1sCJo5dLiN8o/s1420/Screenshot%202024-03-13%20at%209.14.51%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1228" data-original-width="1420" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinYRyK8hII9YZxynIX89PhdcCA-j2mevtjvH_RM6pWGl5ht779-cDZ2Bg9HcqdatyyAnTZwB48bEnLcikOFgRB0Ps-IBYX5kDNAZI-xIsBObBZfWv8D7PfEytxi9xh1CJn14vQuFBn_YNAqpB293IXbr3o_ri9UqsM681tpxZx00NkFWp1sCJo5dLiN8o/w489-h424/Screenshot%202024-03-13%20at%209.14.51%20PM.png" width="489" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Water resources should be sufficient to prevent any significant negative impacts. Furthermore, the wise stewardship of local reservoirs has ensured sufficient water this summer. For example, Seattle's reservoirs are <b>well above normal </b>at this point (see below)</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiF6hGzE5oV9779bB_YBNnIUvOJ6C3BcSWsY6Oq-zbMQ6TJpwiEEF1TQd2SEgSNKSH2VO3HrNqkB13uuKntl5_HZaxGItz8spwUiYae0vK6NFeGyjutjlZK-T6Eejl3AqCIjsGuuCQGVXO9NYu6UblAKzGDEUrtTsHCoZmeCgWwjxaENXG1lEnskXNj0as/s666/Screenshot%202024-03-13%20at%208.58.07%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="412" data-original-width="666" height="243" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiF6hGzE5oV9779bB_YBNnIUvOJ6C3BcSWsY6Oq-zbMQ6TJpwiEEF1TQd2SEgSNKSH2VO3HrNqkB13uuKntl5_HZaxGItz8spwUiYae0vK6NFeGyjutjlZK-T6Eejl3AqCIjsGuuCQGVXO9NYu6UblAKzGDEUrtTsHCoZmeCgWwjxaENXG1lEnskXNj0as/w393-h243/Screenshot%202024-03-13%20at%208.58.07%20PM.png" width="393" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;">A warm, dry period is predicted and this weekend should be nothing short of spectacular.</span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">But don't think that that means the mountain snowfall is over. Bountiful rain and snow will return during the last week of the month (see below).</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmxLHcUa-cBzyfmYgMIA7JBAtk42f20LVNgXTYwO-4mjf0RJD6lH82QABpW7xgzAIKUVLNzREeeNdYUwGD143ZpsqvuQYwJhfCCo74tTss7dLukHq_9fc-Nhq6lwOoyxjEYtjvay8_ETvB-rJroyi9xAfZmkHRVQNf4iLdo9hyphenhyphenqKRoq28UKvBBHy6hWR4/s1972/Screenshot%202024-03-13%20at%209.22.26%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1620" data-original-width="1972" height="263" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmxLHcUa-cBzyfmYgMIA7JBAtk42f20LVNgXTYwO-4mjf0RJD6lH82QABpW7xgzAIKUVLNzREeeNdYUwGD143ZpsqvuQYwJhfCCo74tTss7dLukHq_9fc-Nhq6lwOoyxjEYtjvay8_ETvB-rJroyi9xAfZmkHRVQNf4iLdo9hyphenhyphenqKRoq28UKvBBHy6hWR4/s320/Screenshot%202024-03-13%20at%209.22.26%20PM.png" width="320" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><p></p></div></div>Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-86754272685675835682024-03-12T21:55:00.000-07:002024-03-14T19:35:53.494-07:00The Origin of Last Summer's Maui Wildfire<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">During the past six months, research scientist David Ovens and I have worked intensively on the meteorology of the August 2023 Maui wildfires and have completed a paper that was accepted in an American Meteorological Society journal with a few revisions.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">This blog will describe our results, some of which provide different conclusions than those discussed in many media accounts.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMej2_qqYcgnLCex-A2myWy7X3d44-NtjS8wKUNtmi3ms97h-7ypQ2Fe4teZzUeNqzU58fa87anTpKArx79cOx2mLhbCLsRf-FCgoqZKsg7si0TJAFqgro6_Hg7ferl-wF1EiDCENRGL47X6WYmEHtcmf7pC87U0NEnMEN-v0KKOo8L9N7EJTiQ4GlOIM/s1200/where-to-stay-in-maui-couples.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="476" data-original-width="1200" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMej2_qqYcgnLCex-A2myWy7X3d44-NtjS8wKUNtmi3ms97h-7ypQ2Fe4teZzUeNqzU58fa87anTpKArx79cOx2mLhbCLsRf-FCgoqZKsg7si0TJAFqgro6_Hg7ferl-wF1EiDCENRGL47X6WYmEHtcmf7pC87U0NEnMEN-v0KKOo8L9N7EJTiQ4GlOIM/w584-h232/where-to-stay-in-maui-couples.jpg" width="584" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The City of Lahaina with the West Maui Mountains to the east before the fire.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">To start, it is important to note that there were multiple fires on August 8-9, 2023 (see map below). On Maui, Lahaina was destroyed by one fire and there were large fires in the generally rural area of central Maui. Substantial fires also occurred over the Kohala area of northwest Hawaii.</span><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeVfbmDLTZv4M7Yv01uA11rDpUyUuRmEX3HDQuv0lE_kTTp_3cbxsQ5Lq0MWlQQuhq0AHUT14kHfG94HBwnTjXDtZq4DcV87xqsbVYnRUsRB6tusl2hWkaikXml5fz4v85-NfjY1rci9CyfwBlaDYGZK-gDmFrXA-7p0_VwgB_4-UdYfnndtTauAwZoUo/s452/Picture1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="344" data-original-width="452" height="287" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeVfbmDLTZv4M7Yv01uA11rDpUyUuRmEX3HDQuv0lE_kTTp_3cbxsQ5Lq0MWlQQuhq0AHUT14kHfG94HBwnTjXDtZq4DcV87xqsbVYnRUsRB6tusl2hWkaikXml5fz4v85-NfjY1rci9CyfwBlaDYGZK-gDmFrXA-7p0_VwgB_4-UdYfnndtTauAwZoUo/w376-h287/Picture1.png" width="376" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><b>The August 2023 wildfires were associated with strong, dry downslope winds gusting to 60-80 mph.</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><b>But why did it happen?</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">An unusually strong high-pressure area developed to the north of Hawaii (see map below), which resulted in very strong northeasterly trade winds approaching the West Maui (and other) mountains. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgMLxLXAxELzjsAKriM_zBh2swk4qMxOAEayg3b1amtPA_lfBgtrOumoRhW8rDC4AhOYEqNNDBXjXHzlPPPymf6Y9p6A9Qcem9LXoFBOTPJetQBhmWf6hU-gKoOFEy-ukvs_ewlwKmwcxb9Ue4FzFbZeRGUxAiDj0F8PC8Q_0DfjsovdVziVUfiDfqHFo0" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="972" data-original-width="1756" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgMLxLXAxELzjsAKriM_zBh2swk4qMxOAEayg3b1amtPA_lfBgtrOumoRhW8rDC4AhOYEqNNDBXjXHzlPPPymf6Y9p6A9Qcem9LXoFBOTPJetQBhmWf6hU-gKoOFEy-ukvs_ewlwKmwcxb9Ue4FzFbZeRGUxAiDj0F8PC8Q_0DfjsovdVziVUfiDfqHFo0=w423-h234" width="423" /></span></a></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Importantly, <i>the subtropical inversion</i>, a stable layer often evident over Hawaii, was unusually low (because of the high pressure). </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The strong trade winds and inversion were optimally positioned to produce a<i> high amplitude mountain wave </i>downstream of the West Maui mountains, a wave that resulted in intense and very dry downslope winds on the west slopes of the terrain (see cross section of winds and temperature for northwest Maui, below). </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"> The winds that descended into Lahaina and initiated and spread the fire.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgqekHnBp8LxOXelfFCqX0j1EOjCQ6gfLqoK4S4nRS4s0QuZz7kcE4a8ogNR5SN8ucRYrLZ0hPGAUznfSWgai6EG32ld0S0MctRNKEV3ytI_NDWlA9U3quS7B1PYJYfMrLSjuaMt64axc5GbWK-WG-IqsznCgbIv0GzxMxV_aU_0HFiebEnoHB8dkizSxk" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1296" data-original-width="2058" height="340" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgqekHnBp8LxOXelfFCqX0j1EOjCQ6gfLqoK4S4nRS4s0QuZz7kcE4a8ogNR5SN8ucRYrLZ0hPGAUznfSWgai6EG32ld0S0MctRNKEV3ytI_NDWlA9U3quS7B1PYJYfMrLSjuaMt64axc5GbWK-WG-IqsznCgbIv0GzxMxV_aU_0HFiebEnoHB8dkizSxk=w539-h340" width="539" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Look closely at the above figure and you can see a hydraulic jump structure, not unlike the situation accompanying water descending a dam ( see below).</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjM-lFenh0xOn4OI2-fbeVHeQN_1o1YNGQnJs1boMU0Hv1-199fmFLGV1m27QouJ3wH2NGxLFR3Akmq-QwHYoJeazWqzX28pB5ekYQsNMwMCcueTZgMP4tjleX4O0iceUqNPVr8OT_IGPeHhFNQS5gQQL30MnhadNF2ZNmnyj_4LOVgE5QM09QHjGm_vnU" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1096" data-original-width="1430" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjM-lFenh0xOn4OI2-fbeVHeQN_1o1YNGQnJs1boMU0Hv1-199fmFLGV1m27QouJ3wH2NGxLFR3Akmq-QwHYoJeazWqzX28pB5ekYQsNMwMCcueTZgMP4tjleX4O0iceUqNPVr8OT_IGPeHhFNQS5gQQL30MnhadNF2ZNmnyj_4LOVgE5QM09QHjGm_vnU" width="313" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">This structure was even evident in the clouds and smoke the day of the Lahaina fire (see below)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: large; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjkFQQlgTsCNs98HVU1O_tgrXMEz2NjABIEEB-FHBzXLpIY2OytyUihblhsMu-BnjTPux9Nl8g6GeOk960LbPBbc-pqkLOrLv5ozsDn5qiE3gXAfpZ_7cusQPpq5y80OcNEEiM9TKN9reuz0hs0FiMmgXn-bwXsEUs0vran9ws2AKjRoOMeuDQDaYZ0TMA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1368" data-original-width="1544" height="355" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjkFQQlgTsCNs98HVU1O_tgrXMEz2NjABIEEB-FHBzXLpIY2OytyUihblhsMu-BnjTPux9Nl8g6GeOk960LbPBbc-pqkLOrLv5ozsDn5qiE3gXAfpZ_7cusQPpq5y80OcNEEiM9TKN9reuz0hs0FiMmgXn-bwXsEUs0vran9ws2AKjRoOMeuDQDaYZ0TMA=w401-h355" width="401" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">Top picture taken by <span style="color: #1d2228; font-family: inherit; text-align: left;">Robert Markwardt</span></div><br /><b style="font-size: large;">One of the most amazing aspects of this event was that it was forecast nearly perfectly DAYS before by operational models and certainly by the research model I am using (WRF). </b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"> Below are the predicted surface winds on Maui for a short (17-h) forecast, as well as predictions 41, 89, and 137 hours in advance. All are similar and very accurate. The star shows the position of Lahaina; red and brown show the strongest winds.</span></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgjREn_7vcDaEUlfbkWD-jefuPIMZSdb19iDA6Z7geD6pzZfJgQsYGt6p86fTpXaB1iTfxuqFvZRgtNO0JNhFRn_Lrpgl4Qr-OR1WqDFBHI7LZ4fVpXdpq4I5NEGi3-2oyMeHgisoZeQJQf5wExaq6BhDuKYVRQXCjEKUr--F_Ioit6iAyANW4m2oMIOwY" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1368" data-original-width="1544" height="527" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgjREn_7vcDaEUlfbkWD-jefuPIMZSdb19iDA6Z7geD6pzZfJgQsYGt6p86fTpXaB1iTfxuqFvZRgtNO0JNhFRn_Lrpgl4Qr-OR1WqDFBHI7LZ4fVpXdpq4I5NEGi3-2oyMeHgisoZeQJQf5wExaq6BhDuKYVRQXCjEKUr--F_Ioit6iAyANW4m2oMIOwY=w595-h527" width="595" /></span></a></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The National Weather Service HRRR model was similarly accurate. There was no excuse for not warning the population of a terrible threat.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">There was a lot of talk about the role of Hurricane Dora, which passed about 800 miles to the south of Hawaii (see satellite imagery below). Many media outlets and some politicians blamed the strong winds on Dora. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">But is this true? The wind circulation of the storm was not large in scale, so the direct winds of Dora would not be a factor, but what about indirect effects?</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjXCWHaCtCZNRvKjcLm_yXwct3Jh4mrH2eVjLTsGczNzc88nozpQXceH5VNocSzMP13lhfH954Tfp3_iPDS3TJhDg6g1IcngSf11O7PpJaE_uA2diY6LXLcTngDJ0VCHdY40NS2m_GrprcgBWaFgJievOIHyuytNhxBXHdAS3K0-rx3KlATt5RgN2QfhSA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="384" data-original-width="1966" height="77" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjXCWHaCtCZNRvKjcLm_yXwct3Jh4mrH2eVjLTsGczNzc88nozpQXceH5VNocSzMP13lhfH954Tfp3_iPDS3TJhDg6g1IcngSf11O7PpJaE_uA2diY6LXLcTngDJ0VCHdY40NS2m_GrprcgBWaFgJievOIHyuytNhxBXHdAS3K0-rx3KlATt5RgN2QfhSA=w390-h77" width="390" /></a></div></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjImg5FOnuw_1PUo5jy9fy5OgSoEr-4lLZ31ub6KZrkfrXTbLJYKi90Udo2y3pTw1HDnLH29O-UbhwFtDcPvjHTIEXdoRAN5eYxgXbYGUbRyBP0_eb7YHccP2MFPNUWqzJtHm251RecdUiBuv7mH0IB1_j6EZ8r6pNA4YBPAjr4PvaBRWcBADFMdSybmmk" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="470" data-original-width="1430" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjImg5FOnuw_1PUo5jy9fy5OgSoEr-4lLZ31ub6KZrkfrXTbLJYKi90Udo2y3pTw1HDnLH29O-UbhwFtDcPvjHTIEXdoRAN5eYxgXbYGUbRyBP0_eb7YHccP2MFPNUWqzJtHm251RecdUiBuv7mH0IB1_j6EZ8r6pNA4YBPAjr4PvaBRWcBADFMdSybmmk=w647-h212" width="647" /></a></div><br /> David Ovens and I came up with a way to determine Dora's impact with some confidence.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">We started with an excellent 6.5-day forecast of the Maui winds and the hurricane. Then we weakened the storm by slightly cooling the surface around the storm. Hurricanes are VERY sensitive to the temperature of the sea surface and require sea surface temperatures of at least 80F.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The result was a profoundly weakened storm (see the difference below for the flow around 5000 ft (850 hPa)</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjO85NaDyoYaJG7tN1Ia1uIGR2tyP1rRpNlV3kSLbp6-VjPEZAWidYCPW9DPER0fvm3TCgLbB4YdkfPUpIEuvyXtzWZ5vT-2x1KBwnesWQNtIORjQRY42nEyIckOYJczEP5FOPRenOvVaVCFBFjFQz9nhT0kQPClM4Y26AQagaD7BYJ5Cy8r9qnMgpFaBI" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1500" data-original-width="1320" height="440" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjO85NaDyoYaJG7tN1Ia1uIGR2tyP1rRpNlV3kSLbp6-VjPEZAWidYCPW9DPER0fvm3TCgLbB4YdkfPUpIEuvyXtzWZ5vT-2x1KBwnesWQNtIORjQRY42nEyIckOYJczEP5FOPRenOvVaVCFBFjFQz9nhT0kQPClM4Y26AQagaD7BYJ5Cy8r9qnMgpFaBI=w387-h440" width="387" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;">And now the exciting part. The winds with the weakened (attenuated) storm were essentially the same as the full throttle beast (see below).</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh666gW07NIRh846NqHwXgJtPgANBd30tqlSVw6vLxyQwWYal1wH9yqoCJmxxWZW_vC0g9m4iGFVrqj9dmE3mqLnOckSElzOzCPEIzoi8l_2AK8GsG4uH-F2-pTqxID51GxjgNBbnMr-jSDRj753WJJ0G_ceABySdXcl9gtaDCrY9OldZf-dnlvya-4n7Y/s2476/Screenshot%202024-03-12%20at%209.24.45%20PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1468" data-original-width="2476" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh666gW07NIRh846NqHwXgJtPgANBd30tqlSVw6vLxyQwWYal1wH9yqoCJmxxWZW_vC0g9m4iGFVrqj9dmE3mqLnOckSElzOzCPEIzoi8l_2AK8GsG4uH-F2-pTqxID51GxjgNBbnMr-jSDRj753WJJ0G_ceABySdXcl9gtaDCrY9OldZf-dnlvya-4n7Y/w566-h336/Screenshot%202024-03-12%20at%209.24.45%20PM.png" width="566" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Hurricane Dora played little role in the Maui wildfire disaster.</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Finally, there was a lot of talk about the Maui fires being the result of <b>drought and climate change,</b> particularly from Hawaiian politicians, the power company whose lines failed. and some advocacy groups.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">So we checked out the conditions before the fire. Turned out that precipitation around Lahaina was <b>above normal</b> BOTH for the summer and the previous year (see below)</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiaBA_MMmLGZExU8IZjvS51LvJ1Nhas6JAL3ZdeoHqCbShzpeSExjT1m5cEtbvY-MJiTYLtwQFIiPMOpsJzfX63QDybgTygN1uuJOZACTuPFHhTWBILssmA5u0sAi6Rmp5If4SFVO0RLUwHAUJeZv8JfHmic6rzCupHZ9nomtT_ljsv9-gRWn52WBGucKA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1246" data-original-width="2260" height="280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiaBA_MMmLGZExU8IZjvS51LvJ1Nhas6JAL3ZdeoHqCbShzpeSExjT1m5cEtbvY-MJiTYLtwQFIiPMOpsJzfX63QDybgTygN1uuJOZACTuPFHhTWBILssmA5u0sAi6Rmp5If4SFVO0RLUwHAUJeZv8JfHmic6rzCupHZ9nomtT_ljsv9-gRWn52WBGucKA=w509-h280" width="509" /></a></div><br />And temperatures were near normal (not shown here, but in the paper). Ironically, the heavy rain contributed to the fires by increasing the amount of grass upwind of Lahaina. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b> In short, climate change or drought had little to do with this event.</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>The Bottom Line</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Lahaina was a disaster ready to happen. A human-caused disaster. Large areas of highly flammable invasive grasses were just east of Lahaina. Grasses growing in abandoned farmland.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The power infrastructure was poor and prone to wind damage.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The National Weather Service and local agencies did not make the best use of greatly improved weather forecast models.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Warnings were inadequate, and roads were blocked by powerline crews and fallen poles/lines. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">But the weather forecasts were stunningly good. We have come a long, long way.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi0GlwZmYkX7ozhq5G9Xk41-XiPP7b168xfpYXZbQ8Y8M-qnU6VY7Ais2sW8WFTUJ14tghNIXVzO_oswGdtDlu_7BG1bKP8OwkxT2zmStCMIlQWy3TBiW2h_VXVSFF5SH-X0-kTLj6s21ezBKP5r-mO-R1Jdc4sg43pLuOjrTI_4w3IzY7AXj3c9Cg8VuU" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="838" data-original-width="2232" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi0GlwZmYkX7ozhq5G9Xk41-XiPP7b168xfpYXZbQ8Y8M-qnU6VY7Ais2sW8WFTUJ14tghNIXVzO_oswGdtDlu_7BG1bKP8OwkxT2zmStCMIlQWy3TBiW2h_VXVSFF5SH-X0-kTLj6s21ezBKP5r-mO-R1Jdc4sg43pLuOjrTI_4w3IzY7AXj3c9Cg8VuU=w528-h198" width="528" /></a></div><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Hopefully, our paper and future work will contribute to ensuring this terrible tragedy never happens again.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><p></p>Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-81308001583434291172024-03-10T21:10:00.000-07:002024-03-10T21:10:44.948-07:00Spring Heatwave by Next Weekend<p><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Finally. </span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">After a cooler-than-normal second half of winter, we are about to get some serious warmth, with temperatures over the western lowlands zooming into the mid-60s.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The figure below shows the actual highs and lows (blue bars) from January 1 to yesterday. The brown shading shows the <i>average (</i>climatological<i>)</i><b> </b>highs and lows and the red/blue colors indicate the <i>record</i> highs and lows.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">In general, the past 1-2 weeks have been below normal. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgW5SitkqwY9idLFRm-QwLbE-5qyTUrZin4Wj0uNpye8Q4MF7Ey_2787mN6BhH7pK2VbkQUGVqJ4j1mcJpOi1Irp20OVBcfzRyvn3M6Hg2EqWnOxkGuruHZqMlKaG3nqKsVYdNjdLyAS1Xa7ZFT-1wzHmPP19QvUzX7uusyLlmhKaAl41IWcOKAk1QHyt0/s3004/chart%20-%202024-03-10T194016.174.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1066" data-original-width="3004" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgW5SitkqwY9idLFRm-QwLbE-5qyTUrZin4Wj0uNpye8Q4MF7Ey_2787mN6BhH7pK2VbkQUGVqJ4j1mcJpOi1Irp20OVBcfzRyvn3M6Hg2EqWnOxkGuruHZqMlKaG3nqKsVYdNjdLyAS1Xa7ZFT-1wzHmPP19QvUzX7uusyLlmhKaAl41IWcOKAk1QHyt0/w628-h224/chart%20-%202024-03-10T194016.174.png" width="628" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;">The sun is getting MUCH stronger now, making surges to warm temperatures possible, particularly when we get offshore-directed air flows. You can see this effect by the peaks in the red colors later in the spring when temperatures peak on some dates.<br /></span><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The large-scale weather pattern is going to radically shift at the end of the week, with the previously persistent trough of low pressure along the West Coast replaced by a very high amplitude ridge (see figure below, which shows the upper level (500 hPa, about 18,000 ft) on Thursday. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">With two troughs on either side, this is known as a <i>blocking pattern</i> and tends to be highly stable over time.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzjM-JmmjjYyASVTHGJMrt-v3IcEB_tZUDlkX0xdC1uqWvQkPR36PSnCjPqL6t3RJY24uhHFzW3jI0XLBnRx-MplrzslVZer6mjhT9J0ZyXmoKZaYMbwckUIUlFqIIVflV166pNIgY7Nc9H7go3YSfFPc_MD2Z9QmMfL1MFq0MiowCJu6jvE31H-SaE9k/s2164/Screenshot%202024-03-10%20at%207.33.17%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2002" data-original-width="2164" height="375" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzjM-JmmjjYyASVTHGJMrt-v3IcEB_tZUDlkX0xdC1uqWvQkPR36PSnCjPqL6t3RJY24uhHFzW3jI0XLBnRx-MplrzslVZer6mjhT9J0ZyXmoKZaYMbwckUIUlFqIIVflV166pNIgY7Nc9H7go3YSfFPc_MD2Z9QmMfL1MFq0MiowCJu6jvE31H-SaE9k/w405-h375/Screenshot%202024-03-10%20at%207.33.17%20PM.png" width="405" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>So what does this pattern imply for our temperatures this week? </b></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">First, let's start with surface air temperature predictions for Seattle forecast by the National Weather Service National Blend of Models system. For reference, the average high today at SeaTac is 53F. Temperature will remain below normal through Wednesday, but then zoom up to the mid-60s over the weekend. Some favored locations will get near 70F</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicyKv07K38p51s5lXWfzJIcPRoRmrlkq8SGRIeJVvMeBoSH0xGZpb0OUjz6QsMdrYL812gQ2ifz1Hsq48HsUNaqNU_IauygPawcU-SDEBRJvVxYc5wu7H7lAbupnRlzgnik-4ZSKqCmJ30jJ4Xvy19G9kMy3NnLhezei6ge4PDw6DUddnvQbbgOF5EEuk/s2458/Screenshot%202024-03-10%20at%207.29.59%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1940" data-original-width="2458" height="381" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicyKv07K38p51s5lXWfzJIcPRoRmrlkq8SGRIeJVvMeBoSH0xGZpb0OUjz6QsMdrYL812gQ2ifz1Hsq48HsUNaqNU_IauygPawcU-SDEBRJvVxYc5wu7H7lAbupnRlzgnik-4ZSKqCmJ30jJ4Xvy19G9kMy3NnLhezei6ge4PDw6DUddnvQbbgOF5EEuk/w482-h381/Screenshot%202024-03-10%20at%207.29.59%20PM.png" width="482" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Portland gets even warmer, hitting 70F on Sunday</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimk4eNem9di4m4ZILt8SdoDkTQAIuPnDf_aBjwiLebefdp8dLoIv5SPdO9Dnqi6U1qxty-h9vqg2eW9phuCqIVSpq20H5CM3QN4bIq0vhJX2D-Ng3YHWlL0gBPCVxhHceOLrzD0KVoBNJKbhX9cx75vlAlIrLlA1gsLp7DRzVbbP0GSMlYoALzHVu0a3A/s2458/Screenshot%202024-03-10%20at%207.30.34%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1940" data-original-width="2458" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimk4eNem9di4m4ZILt8SdoDkTQAIuPnDf_aBjwiLebefdp8dLoIv5SPdO9Dnqi6U1qxty-h9vqg2eW9phuCqIVSpq20H5CM3QN4bIq0vhJX2D-Ng3YHWlL0gBPCVxhHceOLrzD0KVoBNJKbhX9cx75vlAlIrLlA1gsLp7DRzVbbP0GSMlYoALzHVu0a3A/w456-h360/Screenshot%202024-03-10%20at%207.30.34%20PM.png" width="456" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;">Eastern Washington will be slower to warm, with the Tri-Cities Airpot will reach 69F on Tuesday.</span><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvZJKZ7CJYHDt0tlhO8QN9agiFBjcK6qk56QNAnBy1OEihWWqwnF4clViTBmwaISnxjUcLDW3iIwLptbIodPd16B0gbUT9PS6QwzLV7YK2sPz5gcC-3SinDbXYTgZAAEFqqZkNRzjkELi0xOGtq6BzfWPac0FINJxdPzfhgj5ATuRWg22HlJppBaJNgko/s2458/Screenshot%202024-03-10%20at%207.30.18%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1940" data-original-width="2458" height="342" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvZJKZ7CJYHDt0tlhO8QN9agiFBjcK6qk56QNAnBy1OEihWWqwnF4clViTBmwaISnxjUcLDW3iIwLptbIodPd16B0gbUT9PS6QwzLV7YK2sPz5gcC-3SinDbXYTgZAAEFqqZkNRzjkELi0xOGtq6BzfWPac0FINJxdPzfhgj5ATuRWg22HlJppBaJNgko/w432-h342/Screenshot%202024-03-10%20at%207.30.18%20PM.png" width="432" /></span></a></div><p></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The warmth will be accompanied by dry conditions. Quite honestly, <b>next weekend will be perfect for anything outside.</b> Plan on it.</span></p>Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-23932223487503885502024-03-08T21:39:00.000-08:002024-03-08T21:39:31.405-08:00El Nino's Collapse Has Begun<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><b>The entire character of this winter has been characterized by a strong El Nino.</b> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">El Nino impacts have included low snowpack over Washington State, huge snowpack and heavy precipitation over California, and warm temperatures over the Upper Plains states.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">However, El Nino's days are numbered and its decline is proceeding rapidly right now. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">First, consider the critical measure of El Nino: the sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific (the Nino 3.4 area). The warmth of this El Nino peaked in late November (about 2.1°C above normal) and is now declining fairly rapidly (currently at roughly 1.3°C above normal).</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHaoFgnqH4PQvqSuzjO8M3bMZZ9D5oVSXjUtACckhgqU8FZ8Xe45gPIpTWfY1d-SDGfrWw0AsAtV-kLOGPsS9RqfT0Po8gfaO9wGghVJkjaRseDO9_sukRWhYd8FC0KJbxbkW6y_w2hC4yqLLIG55-JrX4nC_XkFpha-bCj2vpLpxkYiFtIotLFr16ZLc/s1252/Screenshot%202024-03-08%20at%203.47.40%20PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="416" data-original-width="1252" height="199" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHaoFgnqH4PQvqSuzjO8M3bMZZ9D5oVSXjUtACckhgqU8FZ8Xe45gPIpTWfY1d-SDGfrWw0AsAtV-kLOGPsS9RqfT0Po8gfaO9wGghVJkjaRseDO9_sukRWhYd8FC0KJbxbkW6y_w2hC4yqLLIG55-JrX4nC_XkFpha-bCj2vpLpxkYiFtIotLFr16ZLc/w600-h199/Screenshot%202024-03-08%20at%203.47.40%20PM.png" width="600" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">But the cooling is really more dramatic than that: a LOT of cooling has been happening beneath the surface!</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">To demonstrate this, take a look at subsurface temperatures (the difference from normal) for the lowest 300 m under the surface for a vertical cross-section across the Pacific (below). </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">On 8 January, there was a substantial warm layer extending about 100 m beneath the surface.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi88bivvt2cKP1hVeOK3Ka4Snu92-7wrAqD5SijpSKhqIRg2lYm3sEhYNb33BD7UItyFLnUbD2eCCNu59YHXkuEz4RyI_gPqP_9kgNfRE-itF0zJki5GeXI_PCuhX3UEm8gwXpy3ho-rPMJmaSRAVeyixIdzz6y2oBAZdWJstCigLkBYjXymGxXxlLE8yk/s1026/Screenshot%202024-03-08%20at%203.52.00%20PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="338" data-original-width="1026" height="191" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi88bivvt2cKP1hVeOK3Ka4Snu92-7wrAqD5SijpSKhqIRg2lYm3sEhYNb33BD7UItyFLnUbD2eCCNu59YHXkuEz4RyI_gPqP_9kgNfRE-itF0zJki5GeXI_PCuhX3UEm8gwXpy3ho-rPMJmaSRAVeyixIdzz6y2oBAZdWJstCigLkBYjXymGxXxlLE8yk/w581-h191/Screenshot%202024-03-08%20at%203.52.00%20PM.png" width="581" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">But look at the same cross-section on 27 February. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Wow--what a difference! The warm water has dramatically cooled, with only a thin veneer of warmth evident for much of the Pacific. Rapidly cooling has occurred beneath the surface and this cool water is about to spread to the surface.</span></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfXqEvmk9bLRXgLMSgZp5PoySlQNoEa99a_g2YO0wyosISYUGhR2MWmqCDW8yutO94K44SdOb5cXKFY6Xgs47tklLYUb0vzv1895Yiz8rFxeyfcjb6t9saOxz2gtYhIEinnyxrrVykSjGqC5BIGf_JuRezmC1LeqeBePi2mULIrbcuTQKBHxW0IRcL8ss/s1577/Screenshot%202024-03-08%20at%203.53.11%20PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="610" data-original-width="1577" height="255" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfXqEvmk9bLRXgLMSgZp5PoySlQNoEa99a_g2YO0wyosISYUGhR2MWmqCDW8yutO94K44SdOb5cXKFY6Xgs47tklLYUb0vzv1895Yiz8rFxeyfcjb6t9saOxz2gtYhIEinnyxrrVykSjGqC5BIGf_JuRezmC1LeqeBePi2mULIrbcuTQKBHxW0IRcL8ss/w660-h255/Screenshot%202024-03-08%20at%203.53.11%20PM.png" width="660" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">If you really want to appreciate the profound cooling take a look at the amount of heat in the upper ocean for the western tropical Pacific (below, the difference from normal is being shown).</span><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">A very, very dramatic change has occurred. The heat content of the upper ocean peaked in late November and then plummeted. Declined so much that the water below the surface is now COOLER than normal.<br /></span><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiL5w0UHJjuaV-uBfDTBNdZ3OY2pZuw9zolJEIvgxq9t2L-ZivdJBOMqRlVDyyb1S-LAfKs6hLKqxUh9Mofct1_RqTsQeMn8SqWJBnWw6ltU_BrSQAmDTcrIDyn-I2m2JqrV83ZPIT-AIC3fWabpA_SR7MJUUzNa2MQA8cxhBfWR8srqBBwV3dsU5SSzeg/s1932/Screenshot%202024-03-08%20at%204.06.01%20PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1086" data-original-width="1932" height="255" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiL5w0UHJjuaV-uBfDTBNdZ3OY2pZuw9zolJEIvgxq9t2L-ZivdJBOMqRlVDyyb1S-LAfKs6hLKqxUh9Mofct1_RqTsQeMn8SqWJBnWw6ltU_BrSQAmDTcrIDyn-I2m2JqrV83ZPIT-AIC3fWabpA_SR7MJUUzNa2MQA8cxhBfWR8srqBBwV3dsU5SSzeg/w453-h255/Screenshot%202024-03-08%20at%204.06.01%20PM.png" width="453" /></span></a></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">El Nino fans will be further dismayed to learn that models are going for a continuous decline....so much so that they predict a La Nina next year!</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1sE0CyGa3jn3vkLgPZmGWEqkT2n9lBeyLFymHWXOqpWyhO9klPF3bmhvKNL2YjygaxKe9_uB4HH63ZJby98GdFmlnZKR5qelG-I3DZObxq58jdtxMNsicSGffKeQ47hkZw8kPoYg8_lgMuKKaamCcvWIzco5WND1QXPDETj4whETdTJ8vEiiCjumbUGw/s1344/Screenshot%202024-03-08%20at%204.07.15%20PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="946" data-original-width="1344" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1sE0CyGa3jn3vkLgPZmGWEqkT2n9lBeyLFymHWXOqpWyhO9klPF3bmhvKNL2YjygaxKe9_uB4HH63ZJby98GdFmlnZKR5qelG-I3DZObxq58jdtxMNsicSGffKeQ47hkZw8kPoYg8_lgMuKKaamCcvWIzco5WND1QXPDETj4whETdTJ8vEiiCjumbUGw/w455-h320/Screenshot%202024-03-08%20at%204.07.15%20PM.png" width="455" /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">So why should folks care about this major decline in El Nino here on the West Coast?</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">El Nino results in a trough of low pressure centered to our south and west, something evident in the upper-level maps (for 500 hPa, about 18,000 ft) for February hown below. The blue colors indicate lower-than-normal heights/pressures.</span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #0000ee;"><u><br /></u></span></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnEPv2mk_ikAzVC5n2xykX-68xdisg43ZR6zxuHFbn6u8sqZN5CnhUK8vBdVwBTmqCqE44LItwHHJ136JYwaodHucFYaGN3rZs07OlvG_bkewgGMk-PihK_aSwcVtZux-FrHpSp_HeMUjQCi-y2oRSMDB8-SBkYsP2AzDrSL10XzaUlVqsoDHp-YNjfYs/s874/Screenshot%202024-03-08%20at%204.08.26%20PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="712" data-original-width="874" height="457" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnEPv2mk_ikAzVC5n2xykX-68xdisg43ZR6zxuHFbn6u8sqZN5CnhUK8vBdVwBTmqCqE44LItwHHJ136JYwaodHucFYaGN3rZs07OlvG_bkewgGMk-PihK_aSwcVtZux-FrHpSp_HeMUjQCi-y2oRSMDB8-SBkYsP2AzDrSL10XzaUlVqsoDHp-YNjfYs/w561-h457/Screenshot%202024-03-08%20at%204.08.26%20PM.png" width="561" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">But with El Nino weakening, a major pattern change is possible, and the latest model forecast is for a major change, with a huge ridge (red color) over our region for March 13-20th. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">FINALLY, we may experience some real springtime weather. Like highs in the mid-60s! I can't wait. Tired of one frosty morning after another!</span></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6BESZb84IRhgC4quLM6Kfm_FR5jhB9bFMj-JdAPtq4Url9HgmCiLhk-4zvNUsCji3dIiW7Zu_5g0xq3watEOMckoJCWxxApbD0-Myp6WN4oTR4GFbvYijo_q_ag5Iwo5ez2-rC_RCpcEDB1h1MORxLd3cOKSf6MojfaejJevhYcucQDTafIi4iqqg9bM/s984/ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom_7day-0914400.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="808" data-original-width="984" height="469" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6BESZb84IRhgC4quLM6Kfm_FR5jhB9bFMj-JdAPtq4Url9HgmCiLhk-4zvNUsCji3dIiW7Zu_5g0xq3watEOMckoJCWxxApbD0-Myp6WN4oTR4GFbvYijo_q_ag5Iwo5ez2-rC_RCpcEDB1h1MORxLd3cOKSf6MojfaejJevhYcucQDTafIi4iqqg9bM/w571-h469/ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom_7day-0914400.png" width="571" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><p><br /></p></div></div>Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-63484792521321383892024-03-06T08:45:00.000-08:002024-03-06T08:45:16.977-08:00Coldest Early March in a Generation, Large Improvement in Regional Snowpack<p><b>If it feels a bit chilly to you, you are not imagining it.</b> </p><p>And if you are worried about the snowpack, you can rest easy, there have been big gains since the start of the year.</p><p>First, temperature. For many of you, this is the coldest early March in memory. Consider the average high temperatures for the first five days of March in Seattle (see below). We are experiencing the coldest start to March since the late 1980s. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNnd-eHq3tidrVlFrWYz8BNswIo4Bi6QZmcEGhhNDtpVWsrvsV3sko3jqChFu2BGW01AAIF59m5D9I_LdZcmfBzQ3Ae8jCC7fH4Av3Td8UqyqtJM2I1oorsF_Ds-NBv_h3ThBOEyTGbArR8ONf6wHhXaupK6G0uouGI314-j4r-sBiRLuUOyWyWkUFPx8/s2514/chart%20(4).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1066" data-original-width="2514" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNnd-eHq3tidrVlFrWYz8BNswIo4Bi6QZmcEGhhNDtpVWsrvsV3sko3jqChFu2BGW01AAIF59m5D9I_LdZcmfBzQ3Ae8jCC7fH4Av3Td8UqyqtJM2I1oorsF_Ds-NBv_h3ThBOEyTGbArR8ONf6wHhXaupK6G0uouGI314-j4r-sBiRLuUOyWyWkUFPx8/w639-h272/chart%20(4).png" width="639" /></a></div><b>There is something else interesting in this plot:</b> the average high temperatures in early March have actually COOLED since the 1980s (the trend line is shown by the brown line). <div><br /></div><div>If you want to really get a chill up your spine, take a look at the minimum temperatures this morning (March 6). Mid-20s over southern Puget Sound and single digits over northeast Washington. Portions of central Oregon dropped below ZERO. This is with longer days and a much stronger sun.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6pTY7p4FfNb3rcumXvgruhwKNvLcZ3ca9gCikyknsFBHuI0C2XUmHwS99CFGbbM5zqzG4AQOOHwcvB9_5GFAYDhndWbJEmIyuQ26EB9d7lgEc_VTGr0LbRJp8NUnuMld_4VygrJGfOUkpR3Xd_quqDhffeYDr5qW0KfDXGFhoIcjU6qmSauB5mXwF0h8/s1292/Screenshot%202024-03-06%20at%207.38.37%E2%80%AFAM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1096" data-original-width="1292" height="363" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6pTY7p4FfNb3rcumXvgruhwKNvLcZ3ca9gCikyknsFBHuI0C2XUmHwS99CFGbbM5zqzG4AQOOHwcvB9_5GFAYDhndWbJEmIyuQ26EB9d7lgEc_VTGr0LbRJp8NUnuMld_4VygrJGfOUkpR3Xd_quqDhffeYDr5qW0KfDXGFhoIcjU6qmSauB5mXwF0h8/w429-h363/Screenshot%202024-03-06%20at%207.38.37%E2%80%AFAM.png" width="429" /></a></div><br /><div><b>Then there is the issue of snowpack. </b> Well, good news.....there has been substantial recovery and more is on the way.</div><div><br /></div><div>The current snowpack percentage of normal for Washington State (shown below), shows several watersheds (like the crucial Yakima) at 80% or more. The western side of the Cascades is now at roughly 2/3 of normal. And the Olympics, which was down to roughly 25% has doubled to 50%.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyrQClyxdmGo2n5mVHGlHSSz3yz9cGG2qgKW4Rjc9ZR2M9iGpWjEsBupAnwcJp1BlBb72O3evIS1QPBnkch_-RUsxxTRwaCMjlh_PtoH-5_bFeu2kccs8282OnliXL-P7tdw0fg7Qo2F61wEW_vzJRP7TkCjZ0f2ixQroc-xvQQB1bxDzk27IoN6UUmug/s1064/Screenshot%202024-03-06%20at%207.34.10%E2%80%AFAM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="752" data-original-width="1064" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyrQClyxdmGo2n5mVHGlHSSz3yz9cGG2qgKW4Rjc9ZR2M9iGpWjEsBupAnwcJp1BlBb72O3evIS1QPBnkch_-RUsxxTRwaCMjlh_PtoH-5_bFeu2kccs8282OnliXL-P7tdw0fg7Qo2F61wEW_vzJRP7TkCjZ0f2ixQroc-xvQQB1bxDzk27IoN6UUmug/w405-h286/Screenshot%202024-03-06%20at%207.34.10%E2%80%AFAM.png" width="405" /></a></div><br /><div>Oregon's snowpack is in excellent shape (see below), with many watersheds well over 100% of normal.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMm7Pv_rwqzxv4v9ZsmrT0FDKfDkpoN2OGBEX2k4az4bHcskoXMJxbkri4CFF9PQn-yw6qY_a3pRiaIiZ9xOs2_PgVE1xJzul2J_VQNm-QJdrCcaGdRCLQcgJyVFPhCjqlDQbol-oSwaDcSXhPh4eheaUDmyI8hlny51kq42yHeYLohlbgmLvD-rf6iCk/s920/Screenshot%202024-03-06%20at%207.34.45%E2%80%AFAM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="762" data-original-width="920" height="347" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMm7Pv_rwqzxv4v9ZsmrT0FDKfDkpoN2OGBEX2k4az4bHcskoXMJxbkri4CFF9PQn-yw6qY_a3pRiaIiZ9xOs2_PgVE1xJzul2J_VQNm-QJdrCcaGdRCLQcgJyVFPhCjqlDQbol-oSwaDcSXhPh4eheaUDmyI8hlny51kq42yHeYLohlbgmLvD-rf6iCk/w419-h347/Screenshot%202024-03-06%20at%207.34.45%E2%80%AFAM.png" width="419" /></a></div><br /><div>Just to show you how much things have improved, below is the situation over Washington on January 4th. MUCH worse, with much of the state below 50% of normal snowpack. Huge improvement.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhy0Yiv2Sl3d7TL6DalyMDZRIFToiGX-IMfN0riLDKBe2KITPJlmhh4qhvvbWCOgd5IKyxShSt68pA_FpaXiRCkx3-0qFqmVgZmgfHc93pFCefgykS9LO0BJLei3ShZdrmyYQWHwvVprKiFmuwnKqhzvq1rNXhnPGVO0Wb-JsnDR18VmiSE5V70CGyZLRE/s1175/65982be5ef704.image%20(1).jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="617" data-original-width="1175" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhy0Yiv2Sl3d7TL6DalyMDZRIFToiGX-IMfN0riLDKBe2KITPJlmhh4qhvvbWCOgd5IKyxShSt68pA_FpaXiRCkx3-0qFqmVgZmgfHc93pFCefgykS9LO0BJLei3ShZdrmyYQWHwvVprKiFmuwnKqhzvq1rNXhnPGVO0Wb-JsnDR18VmiSE5V70CGyZLRE/w431-h226/65982be5ef704.image%20(1).jpg" width="431" /></span></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div>So with all this cold and snowy news, what do you think was on the front page of the Seattle Times this morning? <div><br /></div><div>Lack of snow and DROUGHT. And without a single mention of El Nino, the key driver of the lack of snow earlier in the season. I will leave it to you to speculate why they are doing this. But it is not good.<div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrlWjcCBV9eqWGev8zuhn4omQ-pPJ6XQMtSwk9EtUU-I-Vdd84LsvHygZrd1CSvAfBrjWGTvj-9cqfJ9Avcmt0RY0Rnbr9NEjW5FHy6pMd5GrdYfQ9lb2hhHLi1CvCT0lBCxXtqy0xO_aDeN4aP4Z_-j0oOgYoWHUUZnWmh2h5vTyUMCGKpCuXkVJKo_U/s688/Screenshot%202024-03-06%20at%207.50.28%E2%80%AFAM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="688" height="442" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrlWjcCBV9eqWGev8zuhn4omQ-pPJ6XQMtSwk9EtUU-I-Vdd84LsvHygZrd1CSvAfBrjWGTvj-9cqfJ9Avcmt0RY0Rnbr9NEjW5FHy6pMd5GrdYfQ9lb2hhHLi1CvCT0lBCxXtqy0xO_aDeN4aP4Z_-j0oOgYoWHUUZnWmh2h5vTyUMCGKpCuXkVJKo_U/w475-h442/Screenshot%202024-03-06%20at%207.50.28%E2%80%AFAM.png" width="475" /></a></div><br /><div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p></div></div></div></div>Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.com23tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-38638838041874757892024-03-03T16:51:00.000-08:002024-03-03T16:51:39.054-08:00Another Deceptive Front-Page Climate Story in the Seattle Times<p><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"> The Seattle's Times ClimateLab writers have done it again.</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Another highly deceptive and error-filled climate story in the ST. One predicting more than a doubling of wildfires over western Washington and Oregon by mid-century.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiY1yMO7gg2XA30dwXpfQlM4lEJbdLib9dw_EAUPIJtpRCKlPaTQTsVLuAyU3VNIatHByktHVG_nMhHPXSrRJUWfPMQhIE3aDtUFAy93oDGBxnjWJYZmERORhUpQkK49J9WVaAoE50HeJSbLYVm2EzB9XV1gEsA7onfLuLQNvug6biQrs7Z-JkOpjivo4Q/s1414/Screenshot%202024-03-02%20at%208.21.04%20AM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1414" data-original-width="516" height="544" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiY1yMO7gg2XA30dwXpfQlM4lEJbdLib9dw_EAUPIJtpRCKlPaTQTsVLuAyU3VNIatHByktHVG_nMhHPXSrRJUWfPMQhIE3aDtUFAy93oDGBxnjWJYZmERORhUpQkK49J9WVaAoE50HeJSbLYVm2EzB9XV1gEsA7onfLuLQNvug6biQrs7Z-JkOpjivo4Q/w199-h544/Screenshot%202024-03-02%20at%208.21.04%20AM.png" width="199" /></span></a></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The trouble is that this story is based on a highly problematic paper published in February in <i>JGR Biogeosciences </i>(see below). A paper that is missing the key element of Westside wildfires and makes predictions that are unsupported and highly exaggerated.</span><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh8eAwFisePAp9y29G9JXcISl5Jcr_6AGO31GzNeg5penVlGRWrmS5v8G1qexV8sMhS_ka8qZdkKr9Weg7RSuQwREdhRTeZQZxLWCHt0c-ANJ7AE7rI60z-Cjy63KsjwqG5rLY07KWDg9Ty3Rim4n8gA3n4xlx1VT3dJTilH-3nI6LSB9aI0_xM1YvLlLQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="1326" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh8eAwFisePAp9y29G9JXcISl5Jcr_6AGO31GzNeg5penVlGRWrmS5v8G1qexV8sMhS_ka8qZdkKr9Weg7RSuQwREdhRTeZQZxLWCHt0c-ANJ7AE7rI60z-Cjy63KsjwqG5rLY07KWDg9Ty3Rim4n8gA3n4xlx1VT3dJTilH-3nI6LSB9aI0_xM1YvLlLQ=w448-h213" width="448" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br />Before anyone suggests I should not comment on this work, let me note that I am doing research on EXACTLY this topic. I have read all the relevant papers. The authors of this paper cite several of my previous papers on the topic.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The Key Control of Westside Fires Was Ignored</span></b></div><div><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></b></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Both this article and the Seattle Times article <b>ignore the central fact about major wildfires occurring west of the Cascade Crest.</b> </span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Let me explain.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Westside fires are infrequent for a reason: the region west of the Cascade crest is generally too moist to burn. Precipitation is abundant west of the crest (see below) and for most of the year cool, moist marine air from off the Pacific (whose temperature is about 50F) floods over western Washington and Oregon.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhfLZeQG5s8o8JuQPPHU9tFRS_Hhb-KXtBRDCie-dc9CsrZI5qvgyVzX8XG_wCHflAhnJtGGd_NV67lSgtsRaiBpoHr2UXe21JAbb8MwUF5uv6Ww8_3DEQ-dx1aMGImU7eKrc49Vst1pzUlVQjHxJIvQAknGl80DLB4AJepl1afkjij4kzxt5s1G9rUSs/s900/Screenshot%202024-03-03%20at%203.11.08%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="698" data-original-width="900" height="297" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhfLZeQG5s8o8JuQPPHU9tFRS_Hhb-KXtBRDCie-dc9CsrZI5qvgyVzX8XG_wCHflAhnJtGGd_NV67lSgtsRaiBpoHr2UXe21JAbb8MwUF5uv6Ww8_3DEQ-dx1aMGImU7eKrc49Vst1pzUlVQjHxJIvQAknGl80DLB4AJepl1afkjij4kzxt5s1G9rUSs/w384-h297/Screenshot%202024-03-03%20at%203.11.08%20PM.png" width="384" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Moisture vegetation and ground surfaces, as well as cool/moist air. Wildfires don't have a chance and are thus rare.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">But there is an atmospheric "trick" that can make Westside wildfires possible: strong easterly (from the east) winds. Winds that are generally dry and warm, and capable of pushing the moist/cool marine air out to sea.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" data-original-height="549" data-original-width="836" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiLVVAP2eVKDJWjjCVVuv6DoUhMl7qf1_GLiXc5aV2wRPbgRLWuwyC7TafdSOWpA7mi9UPp3g0VZ7XYeKMyKWNKdaaBDevvX3U4Bv_0UwwHU6k_3ghFBNio_75Qih1lKXBgn2UgsGuk06Vuoak9XXjcxOLc00Q7w8hzPxmzCpeJ3dLSME9XKzo7jKg93Zw" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="320" /></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiLVVAP2eVKDJWjjCVVuv6DoUhMl7qf1_GLiXc5aV2wRPbgRLWuwyC7TafdSOWpA7mi9UPp3g0VZ7XYeKMyKWNKdaaBDevvX3U4Bv_0UwwHU6k_3ghFBNio_75Qih1lKXBgn2UgsGuk06Vuoak9XXjcxOLc00Q7w8hzPxmzCpeJ3dLSME9XKzo7jKg93Zw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Virtually all major Westside fires are associated with strong easterly winds. </span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The air starts relatively dry over eastern Washington and Oregon. As it descends the western slopes of the Cascades and coastal mountains, it is warmed by compression, causing relative humidity to plummet. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The warm, dry air associated with powerful downslope winds can rapidly dry surface fuels, <b>no matter how moist they were days or weeks befor</b>e. The strong winds can also start fires, by damaging electrical infrastructure. among other ways.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">I have looked at every one of the Westside fires of the past 120 years-- <b>all of them were associated with powerful easterly winds. </b> </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Examples include the Yacolt Burn near Vancouver, WA in 1902, the Tillamook Fires of the 1930s, and the 2020 fires over western Oregon (there are more). <b>Being a little warmer or drier the days before would have made little difference to these fires: the easterly winds were the key.</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgrWPf62RzPHYxfojCOLbkAvgDiI_GzluBB3zelmJOqzaOFv9wc86q0dOwGy9H95-7Dx_v0HfTLG7F1bDxi9TXIZcDQlqvN9jBN8vle18C1Wk0zKlCQQ2TdL-w70XOdu9mB3hP6zfeW5cD8a-08A71xZZzOPRiSLYe7yuBPQCGTo6NTNZTkY1P8eYX4Eqk" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="597" data-original-width="738" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgrWPf62RzPHYxfojCOLbkAvgDiI_GzluBB3zelmJOqzaOFv9wc86q0dOwGy9H95-7Dx_v0HfTLG7F1bDxi9TXIZcDQlqvN9jBN8vle18C1Wk0zKlCQQ2TdL-w70XOdu9mB3hP6zfeW5cD8a-08A71xZZzOPRiSLYe7yuBPQCGTo6NTNZTkY1P8eYX4Eqk" width="297" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Tillamook Burn, Clatsop County Oregon</span></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">So if you want to know how Westside fires will change over the next century, you MUST determine how the easterly winds will change.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Unfortunately, the JGR paper does not examine this issue at all. The Seattle Times article ignores the issue as well.</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">You probably are asking yourself: <i>Will strong easterly winds strengthen or weaken under global warming? </i></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">I have examined this question with high-resolution regional climate models (and published the results in the peer-reviewed literature). It appears easterly winds will WEAKEN, <b>which would reduce Westside fires. </b>The Seattle Times article doesn't provide that critical information.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">But the problem with the Seattle Times article and paper it cites does not end there.</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The paper assumes the same distribution and frequency of fire starts as today and then uses the output from global climate models to see how the fires would change as the earth warms.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Unfortunately, they used a highly unrealistic and aggressive global warming scenario (RCP 8.5) that greatly exaggerates any global warming impacts. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhf3ytcbJ1qdJgauyRktqgauWKR2Q1Ueo-Sv5AWHkyZgzGuB2jKUgatT2V8jdqbYJMFDs2aw_4ACoMTSV6rwvqfnb-IAKEG5IENv-O4ARlUtIgR3mPr-2ZhuKaCnkhfN3WYc0fj3SaLcyLutWlP67mxuzGprA419eTVWbg4V64a8mvBVP59IN1i_l6TTqM" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="806" data-original-width="1350" height="263" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhf3ytcbJ1qdJgauyRktqgauWKR2Q1Ueo-Sv5AWHkyZgzGuB2jKUgatT2V8jdqbYJMFDs2aw_4ACoMTSV6rwvqfnb-IAKEG5IENv-O4ARlUtIgR3mPr-2ZhuKaCnkhfN3WYc0fj3SaLcyLutWlP67mxuzGprA419eTVWbg4V64a8mvBVP59IN1i_l6TTqM=w441-h263" width="441" /></a></div><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">The global model also is far too coarse to get the local meteorology correct. </span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">For example, THERE ARE NO CASCADES in the simulation at all.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Finally, let me note there are many other problems with the paper and even more in the Seattle Times story.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The ClimateLab series in the Seattle Times is pushing incorrect and hyped climate information. </span>The reporters do not evaluate the validity of the exaggerated claims they report. <span style="font-family: inherit;">This is not quality journalism and misinforms citizens who need accurate information about climate change. </span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div></div></div>Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.com37tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-22914779755662157142024-03-01T21:01:00.000-08:002024-03-01T21:01:51.317-08:00Massive Area of Cold Air is Over the Pacific Northwest and It Not Going Away<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><b> The infrared satellite this afternoon was startling</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Extreme cold air has spread out of Alaska and over the Gulf of Alaska and the northeastern Pacific resulting in a massive field of thunderstorms and convective clouds (see below). </span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">You the white broken clouds offshore? That is what I am talking about!</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1450" data-original-width="1820" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjCgKhzI0-ykYIWDZOVeBvqI9Lw4ThP0dVrq_TYCIA4LHy7jRLJDBgGnEH8h05bCPSYO2m9lUA0t-ojJcgpDU2XemcPgohmNU3_2OYBdLnhLgb3202okCGQtshKK6Zk_0CtPMe53LgJevQWw8qB3q2Lvu_QeSwc4kQWIQ1QdoUPthHHnYyNjTo2Khay0XE=w384-h306" width="384" /></span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The atmosphere over the Pacific is very, very unstable due to cold air moving over warm water. This causes a large change in temperature with height that causes the atmosphere to convect, not unlike the churning oatmeal in a saucepan over a hot burner.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">A very deep upper-level trough of low perssure is over the northeast Pacific and temperatures (below) are well below normal (blue colors in the map below for around 5000 ft)</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhamKrQm0cojRhgwXDRF_4gfmz0QgYWYOJFvLMGkzp6xDk4N77dD-DpzUFs4iLDlh7SbaaoADxNmuZqMtKzHHiIijKxRwzQiqDwVbdkYTsj5U8UqjOPPNz6bUMr3urGNWmHSCXFCgbdyUon7iBbwkfrChEhRv2YHNm9FA2KXdGqKwIFsvhr8NVYv4vR-Tk" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="912" data-original-width="1160" height="334" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhamKrQm0cojRhgwXDRF_4gfmz0QgYWYOJFvLMGkzp6xDk4N77dD-DpzUFs4iLDlh7SbaaoADxNmuZqMtKzHHiIijKxRwzQiqDwVbdkYTsj5U8UqjOPPNz6bUMr3urGNWmHSCXFCgbdyUon7iBbwkfrChEhRv2YHNm9FA2KXdGqKwIFsvhr8NVYv4vR-Tk=w425-h334" width="425" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br />SeaTac only warmed to 41F today, ELEVEN degrees below normal. Many of you have seen snowflakes mixed in with rain today, and a large amount of snow has fallen in the mountains, where the snowpack is increasing rapidly.</span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The latest forecasts suggest we are in for an <b>unusually cold first half of March</b>. Consider the highly skillful European Ensemble forecast system in which many forecasts are combined. For the next ten days, it is predicting much colder than normal conditions over the ENTIRE western U.S. (blue and green colors)</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhMFG3oT07ERBEPtHpd7r5VuebDXacfapfgv2aXCkL1VRnEQyX3V0_BMrd02uNKxJZHad5tPpYliznoBCD46jqSwDjSG_8_qwp0lTLhQdWXjkb3xCmb463keGjO8NS9MbrlEVH0z6LSgG1GU6BK05huUstGTnNutJOE-Rb8JI5kfpgWWwN3xq7ay3jCXkk" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="808" data-original-width="984" height="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhMFG3oT07ERBEPtHpd7r5VuebDXacfapfgv2aXCkL1VRnEQyX3V0_BMrd02uNKxJZHad5tPpYliznoBCD46jqSwDjSG_8_qwp0lTLhQdWXjkb3xCmb463keGjO8NS9MbrlEVH0z6LSgG1GU6BK05huUstGTnNutJOE-Rb8JI5kfpgWWwN3xq7ay3jCXkk=w421-h346" width="421" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The same system is forecast for large amounts of snow over the same period (10 days) from California to British Columbia.<br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhUKHG5xx151TKiAoDtazqrpPntnlu-NAfonhhK_WWJT8C0vquLcLjaGQl8AaFrdgGLFTG8AwBjoBcJlFoPY4odHiojjBtV3M8WYeBEyVqmu5fu7H1C-DpfVNX2xuNrLQJjVaE0eo7-OXG8NHtCVL6B9KaVMI0-cEiwEaO8yM4DOOKtlqzaThlTZJosIaI" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="2022" height="368" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhUKHG5xx151TKiAoDtazqrpPntnlu-NAfonhhK_WWJT8C0vquLcLjaGQl8AaFrdgGLFTG8AwBjoBcJlFoPY4odHiojjBtV3M8WYeBEyVqmu5fu7H1C-DpfVNX2xuNrLQJjVaE0eo7-OXG8NHtCVL6B9KaVMI0-cEiwEaO8yM4DOOKtlqzaThlTZJosIaI=w465-h368" width="465" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br />The next 48 hours should bring a great deal of snow to the coast and the Olympics---with the Olympics being exactly the mountain area that needs it (see below).</span><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEir0eiPS9FBTrxiXFWC44mBo-YNS5BBZcHP4hoZtZ7J8ltnB4iBh6rgYqocrSP2V6rnCErYkcvZgrBmpUvJ8ilPjaGQuy34uIUGicPmj9ehPwwkBttMZqjlV4kKq8k7QYNaWUIfsFD8VjdApMl_iFmaqHp_bPuIwaTLUpoLj_GmvCbF-X4AdTaxp3Glmtw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="900" height="488" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEir0eiPS9FBTrxiXFWC44mBo-YNS5BBZcHP4hoZtZ7J8ltnB4iBh6rgYqocrSP2V6rnCErYkcvZgrBmpUvJ8ilPjaGQuy34uIUGicPmj9ehPwwkBttMZqjlV4kKq8k7QYNaWUIfsFD8VjdApMl_iFmaqHp_bPuIwaTLUpoLj_GmvCbF-X4AdTaxp3Glmtw=w488-h488" width="488" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">I believe there is a good chance that the snowpack will be close to normal by the end of the month, but time will tell.</span></p><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-7528776151057523572024-02-28T21:10:00.000-08:002024-02-28T21:10:03.636-08:00Unusual Early March Lowland Snow<p><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">In normal years, we would be coming to the end of the lowland snow season. </span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Yes, there has been snow during the first weeks of March in the past, but it doesn't happen often and when it does the snowflake accumulation is light.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Consider the historical snowfall totals for March 1-15 at SeaTac Airport over the past 50 years (below).</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhffcRCenMTB7kmXeRwHaSkCrfJiH4kHnPjGOZ_gVdVNMdi54Or-Uq7m60Wt6CV23W2N4ivzTKW6lSYg7Flew1lSORwGsOgRjDvcAV6usmCRP1og_GdnhgoaOKfXgwte7JYS5SRonK24wfvW9hrRa89baLJQFLe-LmHlYluP8DoWURSTWYkOehbjfZKJZE/s2648/chart%20-%202024-02-28T201204.309.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1066" data-original-width="2648" height="231" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhffcRCenMTB7kmXeRwHaSkCrfJiH4kHnPjGOZ_gVdVNMdi54Or-Uq7m60Wt6CV23W2N4ivzTKW6lSYg7Flew1lSORwGsOgRjDvcAV6usmCRP1og_GdnhgoaOKfXgwte7JYS5SRonK24wfvW9hrRa89baLJQFLe-LmHlYluP8DoWURSTWYkOehbjfZKJZE/w573-h231/chart%20-%202024-02-28T201204.309.png" width="573" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Most years get nothing, but a few have experienced several inches.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The latest forecasts suggest that the mountains will get hit hard by snow and that significant portions of the lowlands, particularly away from the water, will be whitened.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Today, after the warm front passage last night, was too warm for lowland snow, with highs getting into the upper 40s around the western lowlands.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">But don't get too comfortable: a very strong cold front is now moving inland and temperatures and snow levels <b>will plummet.</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">I knew we were in for a profound cool-down when I saw the visible satellite image this afternoon: the 4 PM image is shown below. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">You could see the nearly uniform frontal cloud band with highly unstable showers precipitation offshore (the white and black mottled area). That is our future.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhA92y0CMaFsfVfl4Cg7bQzdRzz1e_rHmrGLsqpv_CpYSo9q_4T0hlhAGn8zs5Q86obBg7h9gIlqXRxRv2Fa8EnoCvlUDXQ7NWiHGPoYaTzqKQxswcMdJYxpmdbd1CrMU2379cJRGtfpNx9Zp1fXDUFWXaehcYFfDew8Rlwc5mjm85wcKPrNr4vS7x8IlY" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="680" data-original-width="752" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhA92y0CMaFsfVfl4Cg7bQzdRzz1e_rHmrGLsqpv_CpYSo9q_4T0hlhAGn8zs5Q86obBg7h9gIlqXRxRv2Fa8EnoCvlUDXQ7NWiHGPoYaTzqKQxswcMdJYxpmdbd1CrMU2379cJRGtfpNx9Zp1fXDUFWXaehcYFfDew8Rlwc5mjm85wcKPrNr4vS7x8IlY=w338-h306" width="338" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br />Importantly,<b> a beast of a cold front was found at low levels under the clouds</b>. This intense cold front, indicated by a narrow cold-frontal rainband, was evident in the radar image at 6:35 PM from the Langley Hill radar near Hoquiam (the arrow points to the front and rainband)</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhd5A688aAl_IMSvxkFvrneVXCwKOljDJOyf7rxIEooFOMM-XRMI3gGiYvEpIGS9INf4cn5EYzcePDDisy-b2Oi_MIT22_crQGaiOKlRSD8w4bw_hWpOiUP-DSLLgBxk3qFrjNcAjPvNA8vOFUPNFJ5-6NG1QQxYhK1r5xNPZVvPhNb9-kWG0Hse1YjZV8" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="886" data-original-width="950" height="285" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhd5A688aAl_IMSvxkFvrneVXCwKOljDJOyf7rxIEooFOMM-XRMI3gGiYvEpIGS9INf4cn5EYzcePDDisy-b2Oi_MIT22_crQGaiOKlRSD8w4bw_hWpOiUP-DSLLgBxk3qFrjNcAjPvNA8vOFUPNFJ5-6NG1QQxYhK1r5xNPZVvPhNb9-kWG0Hse1YjZV8=w305-h285" width="305" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><b>The frontal passage this evening will foretell an unusually snowy future for many of you!</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The latest UW WRF forecast run has just arrived and is shown below.</span><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The prediction for accumulated snow for the next 24 hours (through 4 PM Thursday) shows substantial snow over the mountains, including the lower slopes. But little over the lowlands.</span></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFEA8GtfLECLUefzTo2d6ow4bnJykFF8U4nkst5XVbDPTU6AHvWM5Sdz0WjTGsfc_wXrhf4uinezMmoMIqDeZ9jHFAqIHnB15vfCG0KQSMkI6LB4W2Zt2WOa7hDoU87g_dV4LND5qyXl1xq69PIsUJX0AfR1fwdj5cXH5NwCBCm81QjVIcyMrbQtGn5bQ/s900/wa_snowacc.24.0000.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="900" height="466" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFEA8GtfLECLUefzTo2d6ow4bnJykFF8U4nkst5XVbDPTU6AHvWM5Sdz0WjTGsfc_wXrhf4uinezMmoMIqDeZ9jHFAqIHnB15vfCG0KQSMkI6LB4W2Zt2WOa7hDoU87g_dV4LND5qyXl1xq69PIsUJX0AfR1fwdj5cXH5NwCBCm81QjVIcyMrbQtGn5bQ/w466-h466/wa_snowacc.24.0000.gif" width="466" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #0000ee; font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><u><br /></u></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">But the next 24 (through 4 PM Friday) forecast map shows non-trivial lowland snow away from the water. Temperatures are on the edge of rain/snow but the models are going 1-2 inches away from the water.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgT3pthoquvZWiOnLVZReOEfIitAa-Jw21lfI6U9xvWoRZCQB3V23OGTkhNHQ439Uv37DftrEbavGES2GRWzigVNUyrj_210LTcv8ci5sGpNy7i_J3J_UgFtZjhKy2Z_0oo6WLKLkM1YZumITPM1Im4zOzIN1c-W-Y4QGHwkespEg9QW3K7V5UisYSCHb0/s1712/Screenshot%202024-02-28%20at%208.34.38%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1436" data-original-width="1712" height="376" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgT3pthoquvZWiOnLVZReOEfIitAa-Jw21lfI6U9xvWoRZCQB3V23OGTkhNHQ439Uv37DftrEbavGES2GRWzigVNUyrj_210LTcv8ci5sGpNy7i_J3J_UgFtZjhKy2Z_0oo6WLKLkM1YZumITPM1Im4zOzIN1c-W-Y4QGHwkespEg9QW3K7V5UisYSCHb0/w449-h376/Screenshot%202024-02-28%20at%208.34.38%20PM.png" width="449" /></span></a></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #0000ee; font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><u><br /></u></span></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">But the lowland snow fun is not over, with the next 24-h (through 4 PM Saturday) bringing more lowland snow, particularly along the coast and around Portland and Northwest Washington.</span><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgHZ0JGxYzAy3wMTYn0iHxmrLdY5bWASS7AbbeClEP0B065Hd5DH7wW8_nY-NKX4959ta40quw4Cb8GQLQtjv_hGEkubPAJzeeQhSOoB3BVvNThOcol2WuZPuVMXoO9GYcbe1p9PrRLTstYDf3BQGOdKNOq5-xkxj6jJcLLcq69Y8yUzzPHnjUmQMTHO-k" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="900" height="429" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgHZ0JGxYzAy3wMTYn0iHxmrLdY5bWASS7AbbeClEP0B065Hd5DH7wW8_nY-NKX4959ta40quw4Cb8GQLQtjv_hGEkubPAJzeeQhSOoB3BVvNThOcol2WuZPuVMXoO9GYcbe1p9PrRLTstYDf3BQGOdKNOq5-xkxj6jJcLLcq69Y8yUzzPHnjUmQMTHO-k=w429-h429" width="429" /></a></div><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">I know....you want to get an idea of the uncertainty of this forecast. <b>No problem.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Below are the predictions of accumulating snowfall total at SeaTac from the UW high-resolution ensemble system in which many forecasts are made...each slightly different. \</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">A lot of spread in the solutions (the black is the average of them all). Virtually all are going for snow, with total snowfall ranging from 0.5 to 3 inches. So there is some uncertainty....better you are aware of it.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyfF35TgbG1wyhSFH7j4krFiwO3XMdzFdf_Gv2Bdc46cYWWHgwzSbYMg7b6q3AbsDY_cS3IDAM7WKqgockF1G7wMJbcaITBdz6yamrvs7_2hxCWcednn_0o1G8GCEh0UgAQje71_3_9U_N3mWq1W16_MaugMpCTk4auWsr6K7nfPNTWEA6yyY45vC4YkE/s1582/Screenshot%202024-02-28%20at%208.15.07%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1246" data-original-width="1582" height="413" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyfF35TgbG1wyhSFH7j4krFiwO3XMdzFdf_Gv2Bdc46cYWWHgwzSbYMg7b6q3AbsDY_cS3IDAM7WKqgockF1G7wMJbcaITBdz6yamrvs7_2hxCWcednn_0o1G8GCEh0UgAQje71_3_9U_N3mWq1W16_MaugMpCTk4auWsr6K7nfPNTWEA6yyY45vC4YkE/w524-h413/Screenshot%202024-02-28%20at%208.15.07%20PM.png" width="524" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><div><br /></div></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Finally, the uber-skillful European Center model is also going for substantial lowland snow, but in different areas (see the total through 7 PM Saturday.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiz3i0aeXoh_Fo5amF6vKaVTFoxAK_NuqBuk4N-LwvW9KuPYYFvwiBKgY-kb--lS1yINN5o7tcyRNkQKhFymy9UPQoPLs5iM7wgK0vlCL1x7ci2v6uh-1CWZdI8_8UJRgjOxOyyN2u1xOCn2mCtOtFnsVcL-aSt9Ve0qhIeW_57S26oLltrbocu9uXAMPo" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1620" data-original-width="1974" height="352" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiz3i0aeXoh_Fo5amF6vKaVTFoxAK_NuqBuk4N-LwvW9KuPYYFvwiBKgY-kb--lS1yINN5o7tcyRNkQKhFymy9UPQoPLs5iM7wgK0vlCL1x7ci2v6uh-1CWZdI8_8UJRgjOxOyyN2u1xOCn2mCtOtFnsVcL-aSt9Ve0qhIeW_57S26oLltrbocu9uXAMPo=w428-h352" width="428" /></a></div><br /></span><span style="font-size: large;">You can bet that a lot of lawns and roofs will be white before this is over. And the accumulation of snow in the mountains will continue.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSBh7VLw0PV4HLQ48BkOAhH7-sAc084_ftuHppzXiXgARN3jE-0i14GQZPR4k5fPTfMFzXC9YBqmPTvmJ-AeknmRYBJ0kiHCVoIY4TW_0RCtdh9pyM6LZyALsB_wbDkI4Z9yoDm1Fzh2P9bQnSjUOCJPNYmQ6iEU6XNL1Yzt1o5zqiUs0JD7EomSnzPTE/s1478/Screenshot%202024-02-28%20at%208.18.31%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1412" data-original-width="1478" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSBh7VLw0PV4HLQ48BkOAhH7-sAc084_ftuHppzXiXgARN3jE-0i14GQZPR4k5fPTfMFzXC9YBqmPTvmJ-AeknmRYBJ0kiHCVoIY4TW_0RCtdh9pyM6LZyALsB_wbDkI4Z9yoDm1Fzh2P9bQnSjUOCJPNYmQ6iEU6XNL1Yzt1o5zqiUs0JD7EomSnzPTE/s320/Screenshot%202024-02-28%20at%208.18.31%20PM.png" width="320" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div><p><br /></p></div></div></div>Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-13043617825510226192024-02-26T21:08:00.000-08:002024-02-26T21:08:01.724-08:00The Snow has Arrived and Much More is on the Way<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">This afternoon I biked home in light snow and it was magical. And the Northwest will enjoy a lot of snowflake magic during the next week.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Tonight (Monday) it is cold enough to snow with any significant precipitation intensity.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The latest radar shows two precipitation snowbands from two convergence zones: one downstream of the Olympics and the other downwind of the mountains of Vancouver Island (see below). Snow is being observed in both.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhY5msdu-Lw2NgHsfxJio6xcPAnmN6RWpLwI5y0W8q0rQ4yUF3lg7zr2X_7tfyt4mx6WR8XE7VZ3onkcPw70xO87RM1dpBY9DHua_WzPvXLsdHRMjJHlcjueRiIXLQQ1FqewKdR0paO1tYtMYws16HMUx7fNPTEzjC_ziwtZPovR5-O2EIAjoangkH1W_8" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"></span></a><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhY5msdu-Lw2NgHsfxJio6xcPAnmN6RWpLwI5y0W8q0rQ4yUF3lg7zr2X_7tfyt4mx6WR8XE7VZ3onkcPw70xO87RM1dpBY9DHua_WzPvXLsdHRMjJHlcjueRiIXLQQ1FqewKdR0paO1tYtMYws16HMUx7fNPTEzjC_ziwtZPovR5-O2EIAjoangkH1W_8" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhxtP78dj4ZwXqT8DgfQ3ozL8Yiq4_0XMNE8Y9xz7iZEjHgMXgS6KaesALdYdeOpVng6j0N_fHoaUix_s7EjQhz259uvW7wfZgaJTK6biCvx2ki-0iRByf5mYrcFWeGy_sFamfDpKXwgVK4mzAlyUOrb_-o0hkZa0diSfRgq6RQPs7pZ2Z5zII-dV682To" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1236" data-original-width="1238" height="363" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhxtP78dj4ZwXqT8DgfQ3ozL8Yiq4_0XMNE8Y9xz7iZEjHgMXgS6KaesALdYdeOpVng6j0N_fHoaUix_s7EjQhz259uvW7wfZgaJTK6biCvx2ki-0iRByf5mYrcFWeGy_sFamfDpKXwgVK4mzAlyUOrb_-o0hkZa0diSfRgq6RQPs7pZ2Z5zII-dV682To=w363-h363" width="363" /></a></div><br /></span></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The latest NOAA HRRR model forecast predicts more snow in these two bands (see the one-hour snowfall ending at midnight below). Perhaps an inch in favored areas. But nothing that will really cause much of a problem in the western lowlands.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEisUZavhkMdE1LXNqL7pfkrU3VwGVzK6OpjA4LKUEOBmK3ljQpLXgrCNbFXFMPs4e_G9O4llP_C8ljZ3p8g_qYPKRqORKpapnuLqV6WecdeODMVoUegssOoUWQFf0wFjfYuBdGSuLJ-m_MVj3nHBp4LqyJyPJNv3ayiHCuPcBNtQfpEqbCrGcCbGkW3lsg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1344" data-original-width="1372" height="368" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEisUZavhkMdE1LXNqL7pfkrU3VwGVzK6OpjA4LKUEOBmK3ljQpLXgrCNbFXFMPs4e_G9O4llP_C8ljZ3p8g_qYPKRqORKpapnuLqV6WecdeODMVoUegssOoUWQFf0wFjfYuBdGSuLJ-m_MVj3nHBp4LqyJyPJNv3ayiHCuPcBNtQfpEqbCrGcCbGkW3lsg=w376-h368" width="376" /></span></a></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">But the big action is still ahead...not for the lowlands, but for the mountains. Very heavy snowfalls. And then another chance for lowland snow on Sunday.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Tomorrow afternoon a vigorous Pacific warm front will move across our coast, bringing strong, moist southwesterly winds that will push up local terrain. The map at around 5000 ft (850 hPa pressure) on Wednesday morning at 4 AM illustrates the situation. Very strong winds from the southwest at that level. This is a very wet pattern</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhdJLvDFPaO2u8VEEI_0AO9xt5zWMo0TUzbojYD8vZoHKScKQsdl122CpS3gHKpA-DROLQu0OTBvy_-Qh3WT4oX0yhvQqaIrDZqvYraiQmXRuq6ZjHskw37uvjGXJfsWMEdS13uQpkg8B75ndU5-Efx6o8Lff_FAL5GsN-gXWtoswCf99b_eNq1E6I3W18" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1370" data-original-width="1834" height="317" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhdJLvDFPaO2u8VEEI_0AO9xt5zWMo0TUzbojYD8vZoHKScKQsdl122CpS3gHKpA-DROLQu0OTBvy_-Qh3WT4oX0yhvQqaIrDZqvYraiQmXRuq6ZjHskw37uvjGXJfsWMEdS13uQpkg8B75ndU5-Efx6o8Lff_FAL5GsN-gXWtoswCf99b_eNq1E6I3W18=w425-h317" width="425" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">No more snow at low elevations, but feet of snow will fall in the mountains. The accumulated snow total through 1 AM Thursday is shown below. 3 feet in some places</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhnesac-oBLFndIKqGJdV9UAQH46JnGUsDofW1IXkJL3bVOeStGA-584Gfqo8b74GV18u1-QYewfPspM4cEP-XSYg006fI3ysM2x3kp0wB3zEUMnSMXIbM-siYqlwfvuFma8mW6iwhCL0WLlcvkc907La_eW1XRJNCWiA4i4pK9ttPp0N-opjT96OIVkbo" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1358" data-original-width="1690" height="357" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhnesac-oBLFndIKqGJdV9UAQH46JnGUsDofW1IXkJL3bVOeStGA-584Gfqo8b74GV18u1-QYewfPspM4cEP-XSYg006fI3ysM2x3kp0wB3zEUMnSMXIbM-siYqlwfvuFma8mW6iwhCL0WLlcvkc907La_eW1XRJNCWiA4i4pK9ttPp0N-opjT96OIVkbo=w444-h357" width="444" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Later this week, a supercold upper-level trough will settle over our offshore waters, leaving western Washington and Oregon quite cold, with rain and snow showers even near sea level. Northern California gets hit hard with rain and snow.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEim9bNmAQk7wDN2PVrEGblXrCPzIzDCXzck0SKG4ipESkx58Zf5J1ML4RU8BeFH0ieM6-uGX0ZM_pi1w8uEeclTVDbbY2swaiZMc3i4EMG_wfHIIaDODens4xdtrQ8HDy99xwlu22IxRR9mAzFY9R0QqjA1NmTiIV0rN80ZhxFjCCI30ioQIlNCTqvROKI" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="900" height="412" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEim9bNmAQk7wDN2PVrEGblXrCPzIzDCXzck0SKG4ipESkx58Zf5J1ML4RU8BeFH0ieM6-uGX0ZM_pi1w8uEeclTVDbbY2swaiZMc3i4EMG_wfHIIaDODens4xdtrQ8HDy99xwlu22IxRR9mAzFY9R0QqjA1NmTiIV0rN80ZhxFjCCI30ioQIlNCTqvROKI=w412-h412" width="412" /></span></a></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: medium;">All and all, very good news for West Coast water supplies and regional skiing.</span></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjIGLQpaO7KWStrIM1PMSn4iqErtG1LPag75G9RrGrFLSTlizAjy9LgASd8dNnIzaCqipSpFAGYJRSs1wiqPgZqxfy-YSGIXBh81kYJQ1xNHseCMjMLtDcmh1jFjiCbgPsN05aiVBqyJfOdw0kesNtua3ivvxd8bHCof7C38xYQSNsTYltmwHxqUMrKVx4" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></a></div><p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-83746216685836461752024-02-24T21:31:00.000-08:002024-02-25T06:38:43.347-08:00Heavy Snow in the Mountains and Snowflakes over the Western Lowlands are Now a Certainty<p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>We are now close enough in time to predict a snowy future:</b> many feet in the mountains and a good dusting in several western Washington locations near sea level.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Some dramatic changes in our weather are ahead starting tomorrow (Sunday) afternoon.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">During the afternoon, a very strong cold front will move through western Washington, bringing powerful winds and rapidly declining temperatures. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">To illustrate, below is the predicted surface weather map for 1 PM Sunday, with pressure (isobars, solid lines), surface winds, and near-surface (800 meters) temperatures (shading) shown.</span></p><p></p><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">I have indicated the frontal location on the map (red line), with cold air (blue color) behind it. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiHNTsQFfMmuqu1IdEXxc0qrFDxigKrw5sbpexo7F3vnUxhU56LXH55v-kVGMW-dkKLjxuFWoxvjsACVStpwovFTGGBT3w1UJJ-diZfBPpoYe6Q-hcuLxh0F7rM4xhpoDn9outN2dsh2BnqV4optvm9keBJhLj3tahLFQQ72j_5Zxq48Zs2eihmfZ2s1E0" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="828" data-original-width="1164" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiHNTsQFfMmuqu1IdEXxc0qrFDxigKrw5sbpexo7F3vnUxhU56LXH55v-kVGMW-dkKLjxuFWoxvjsACVStpwovFTGGBT3w1UJJ-diZfBPpoYe6Q-hcuLxh0F7rM4xhpoDn9outN2dsh2BnqV4optvm9keBJhLj3tahLFQQ72j_5Zxq48Zs2eihmfZ2s1E0=w415-h296" width="415" /></span></a></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Do you see the large change in pressure over western Washington (lots of lines)? That will cause strong southerly winds, with gusts to 30-45 mph over the lowlands. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>After the front moves through, it will be game-on for regional snow.</b></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Snowfall accumulations from 4 PM Saturday through 1 PM Sunday, right before the cold front moves into western Washington, is moderate, with perhaps a half-foot over the northern Cascades.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgfzgfi0W5s-PvZMYGDRtHPkpJOOj8rkKe0w0kg-yAEm4XFMRhgndbQCNyouHSRSNK11di6RMUzpC1YsQQ9FN-C5zoPGH_TpZqf0qA6kzZ589XmzxGrtsgAx42jsBlWQFCYDgSu76K2wBvzT0_mOrUpeJnWAggYfZfu1toSKGcDSBBa0m0LZgpucjSvXd4" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="900" height="411" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgfzgfi0W5s-PvZMYGDRtHPkpJOOj8rkKe0w0kg-yAEm4XFMRhgndbQCNyouHSRSNK11di6RMUzpC1YsQQ9FN-C5zoPGH_TpZqf0qA6kzZ589XmzxGrtsgAx42jsBlWQFCYDgSu76K2wBvzT0_mOrUpeJnWAggYfZfu1toSKGcDSBBa0m0LZgpucjSvXd4=w411-h411" width="411" /></span></a></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">One day later, as cool, moist Pacific air from behind the cold front has pushed through, and the mountain snowfall is getting impressive, with higher elevations getting 2 feet or more. Look carefully and you will see some snow reaching sea level, particularly north of Everett.</span></div><p></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"> <img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh4eRCX8kcagsD4zXRdmOzonPCzKM8i8oSsx_bMef6ejxuQaPEj18C-llPYKuuV1FIbLXZc--w14a2LNSAzVF8Kj8YnTij97w1VD3_NttAC4CTmRRMy3mC4svh-whSHlm--GPowlRh8f9a3yWEQuRHaaOH4D_leIempiAEpGigg2au41LSFr9gMR3dc6V4=w428-h428" /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">More snow will fall on Monday night and Tuesday morning, bringing mountain snowfall totals of 1-2 yards by Tuesday Afternoon.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The European Center model forecast is similar, and if anything more generous with the snowy bounty, with the totals through 4 PM 3 March pretty impressive. much of the Cascades receiving more than 45 inches.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhkPL0XbgQ-A_k4zoIgmfYFqPQ5ogtO9CcARqalOrHJyuvuz39vAZSLS1HRGHeP-kBXQ8cH_a5oS5gup8BfZNmtPQI_CH9NDmBXAnjvenGWONM1zyeEpkwHXDCzPOyZL6HrUrYoRJbGuGvTbKUTzVBJCBjd69c2jANNTLc0WHg1_cYZAdSJHgeULaVCTvs" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1636" data-original-width="2024" height="476" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhkPL0XbgQ-A_k4zoIgmfYFqPQ5ogtO9CcARqalOrHJyuvuz39vAZSLS1HRGHeP-kBXQ8cH_a5oS5gup8BfZNmtPQI_CH9NDmBXAnjvenGWONM1zyeEpkwHXDCzPOyZL6HrUrYoRJbGuGvTbKUTzVBJCBjd69c2jANNTLc0WHg1_cYZAdSJHgeULaVCTvs=w587-h476" width="587" /></span></a></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The NOAA Climate Prediction Center is going with the chilly, snow-laden message with its prediction for search March being much colder and wetter than normal in the West (see below).</span></div><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiiEw2dT0zKMNdFdxQzhftQkpISaWEOx0IOwuYb9BhN1_qeNPbWz-_beW80cC9XyexsF2qTH7dlddvYWXk0or3nkVmwsNe7_gr90xL95AaTS6Sm4-pCSvYQ47LDnxjmGHam9piWoXYyVUzrC-V2d5yNBa4vlMlinnpV4MlDrJXsVp0p4ywKsv0vy_6ESa0" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="2550" data-original-width="3300" height="330" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiiEw2dT0zKMNdFdxQzhftQkpISaWEOx0IOwuYb9BhN1_qeNPbWz-_beW80cC9XyexsF2qTH7dlddvYWXk0or3nkVmwsNe7_gr90xL95AaTS6Sm4-pCSvYQ47LDnxjmGHam9piWoXYyVUzrC-V2d5yNBa4vlMlinnpV4MlDrJXsVp0p4ywKsv0vy_6ESa0=w428-h330" width="428" /></span></a></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgIdzLDt44rLz7FKNEeSd9Qr6k1F6zGPT0K2p_06fzzCillkjtK5esbB4fcZLpsCn9bC0HF92TebFORunBVZOY6-hIfZ2hx6I-aTewS5mVWWDYbKPJCEkeQgZFfDLs9V2TUQF7ZjXn_BlpXD39L91I7NMETWppVCgca14Z3I4VDXoNEhPQkRu_eBnQLlVA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="2550" data-original-width="3300" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgIdzLDt44rLz7FKNEeSd9Qr6k1F6zGPT0K2p_06fzzCillkjtK5esbB4fcZLpsCn9bC0HF92TebFORunBVZOY6-hIfZ2hx6I-aTewS5mVWWDYbKPJCEkeQgZFfDLs9V2TUQF7ZjXn_BlpXD39L91I7NMETWppVCgca14Z3I4VDXoNEhPQkRu_eBnQLlVA=w399-h308" width="399" /></span></a></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>And did I mention that El Nino is starting to collapse?</b></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">A lot of reasons to expect our water situation and snowpack may not be too bad starting summer.</span></div><br /><p></p>Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-59922913278782307912024-02-22T21:55:00.000-08:002024-02-23T15:18:35.071-08:00How unusual is it for aircraft to exceed the speed of sound?<p><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Announcement: Doing an online zoom session with Patreon supporters at 10 AM tomorrow (Saturday)</b></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">______________________________________</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The media this week was full of stories talking about aircraft going faster than the speed of sound.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Freak, supersonic wind speeds, some exceeding 800 miles per hour.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhGtAtDLUMM9lLdxHD28zqNRYw465QLK_GRvCP0npqHtDN3lGWIK0uUkJeHAfTzugYPY0cpdDuNfD6C7gfAVCmgLbnvV8JyvptmnkegZkSpiPbbuLjn1vxq2ZouSs61h0coG3r6XONlM-GKXxRlvp3ra5_YJOGkeMLp-ALjyHc6xN9KlaPVxvZm_MyqtC0" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="230" data-original-width="1092" height="114" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhGtAtDLUMM9lLdxHD28zqNRYw465QLK_GRvCP0npqHtDN3lGWIK0uUkJeHAfTzugYPY0cpdDuNfD6C7gfAVCmgLbnvV8JyvptmnkegZkSpiPbbuLjn1vxq2ZouSs61h0coG3r6XONlM-GKXxRlvp3ra5_YJOGkeMLp-ALjyHc6xN9KlaPVxvZm_MyqtC0=w545-h114" width="545" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br />For reference, the speed of sound around cruise level (roughly 35,000 ft) is around 664 mph. Some eastbound, north Atlantic flights arrived 30 to 45 minutes early, one over an hour early!</span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><b>So what happened this week over the North Atlantic and how unusual was it? All will be revealed here.</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">First, a bit about planes going "supersonic". To be truly supersonic, the aircraft has to move faster than the speed of sound (roughly 664 mph a cruise altitude) relative to the air. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">They never do. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">When the media talks about "supersonic" they are talking about the speed with respect to the ground, which is NOT the same thing. Aircraft can go very fast relative to the ground if the aircraft has a large tailwind.....as was experienced earlier this week.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhQ4wQIeEyEIZaXvG1JlnbR7XsDQPf3mJ_0Hv8D74WfwARQr7QmG7DiRIznEr3f9qzX8SV0RTeFBuhua7f9cN5OtIUvWt5A8FbeiK0XjXrnOnOVKhC8Kua5ZAGzOD7ZdslENv0pN3eijZpOlrv_9aj8VXZBmdU3LiPuNMaMmzVlPUAVx0JX323CrDWM6Fs" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="452" data-original-width="1056" height="137" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhQ4wQIeEyEIZaXvG1JlnbR7XsDQPf3mJ_0Hv8D74WfwARQr7QmG7DiRIznEr3f9qzX8SV0RTeFBuhua7f9cN5OtIUvWt5A8FbeiK0XjXrnOnOVKhC8Kua5ZAGzOD7ZdslENv0pN3eijZpOlrv_9aj8VXZBmdU3LiPuNMaMmzVlPUAVx0JX323CrDWM6Fs" width="320" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br />Since the average jet aircraft flies around 560 mph at altitude, a tailwind of over 110 mph would result in it moving faster than the speed of sound relative to the surface. </span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The winds aloft were truly screaming along the U.S. East Coast on Sunday and Monday of this week. Here is a short-term forecast of the winds at a pressure of 200 hPa (about 38,000 ft) for Sunday morning. Wow. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Over the mid-Atlantic states and offshore, some winds were forecast to reach 215 knots (247 mph). That is cranking. And since these winds were from the west, aircraft heading to Europe were going over 800 mph to the east.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjtlKdB51X_9J-3vNuvqZE79EVzgGwAIIDx4K1xBiO_-r_1kQU6n7Hd85AjTCo93ZmVhnfRrGs_8B2edIx2nkhulHKUqwANVpsjI4djgk96HZEeQAxG6y-jZW0PIgfS-Iq7bpVGtGuaFqHTt95n1Ms5rF0hPm3tXAmvTwqcchV6jCtuxaU56zIqGaIHOGs" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1574" data-original-width="2070" height="381" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjtlKdB51X_9J-3vNuvqZE79EVzgGwAIIDx4K1xBiO_-r_1kQU6n7Hd85AjTCo93ZmVhnfRrGs_8B2edIx2nkhulHKUqwANVpsjI4djgk96HZEeQAxG6y-jZW0PIgfS-Iq7bpVGtGuaFqHTt95n1Ms5rF0hPm3tXAmvTwqcchV6jCtuxaU56zIqGaIHOGs=w501-h381" width="501" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">So how unusual were the winds, say over Washington, DC during this event? </span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">There is a radiosonde (balloon-launched weather station) at Sterling, Virginia (Dulles Airport), just to the west of Washington, DC. On Sunday morning, the ballow measured a speed of 218 knots from the west.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Impressive. But how unusual? Below is a plot (red line) of the daily 250-hPa (about 33,000 ft) strongest winds at that location for a period from 1950 to today. The star indicates the Dulles winds on Sunday. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">That morning, there were the second strongest winds at that level in over 70 years! That is very, very impressive.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjyq6T9-agIcbdgADE8zzQQMqeIfcWAWZP2qluQpyDF96BD5EIN5Mwu2xurXnuZfERGXGOkDtV9HUfHiQYJj6fA7NGZ7wSH7TiovazZ4GhwhSuo1BXrOa9-ZyADbl9Sn_r_ZKd2Tht8uGUkVG1yK_UjQ-_Ni3lxjU8ClpvEtmf1IjU-Du0Nn9Oi94iR9rY" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1470" data-original-width="2672" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjyq6T9-agIcbdgADE8zzQQMqeIfcWAWZP2qluQpyDF96BD5EIN5Mwu2xurXnuZfERGXGOkDtV9HUfHiQYJj6fA7NGZ7wSH7TiovazZ4GhwhSuo1BXrOa9-ZyADbl9Sn_r_ZKd2Tht8uGUkVG1yK_UjQ-_Ni3lxjU8ClpvEtmf1IjU-Du0Nn9Oi94iR9rY=w524-h288" width="524" /></span></a></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Monday evening the strong winds moved offshore, still giving European-bound aircraft a mighty boost eastward (see wind speeds below)</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh4GPsP46om56mTa9LP8UjrJm-jc0R8LU8-S4zyfu-Eqf-ZI3-4gJZaEf3MWGMoUqI4suybLYlHADS5WetrwpcvfyaS4vhAPQkv-pVbqRU_0dFY9JXAHeRcfOYRf9CtBtyFamD7J8775OWWTODr1F5N41Vy4WJ7Skt-EW2SuwYiafyFwa2meJISTwi-DB4" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1450" data-original-width="2062" height="377" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh4GPsP46om56mTa9LP8UjrJm-jc0R8LU8-S4zyfu-Eqf-ZI3-4gJZaEf3MWGMoUqI4suybLYlHADS5WetrwpcvfyaS4vhAPQkv-pVbqRU_0dFY9JXAHeRcfOYRf9CtBtyFamD7J8775OWWTODr1F5N41Vy4WJ7Skt-EW2SuwYiafyFwa2meJISTwi-DB4=w537-h377" width="537" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Although these winds were exceptional over Dulles and clearly stronger than normal, they are not as exceptional when considered on a hemispheric or global scale.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">To illustrate, below is a plot of the winds aloft (250 hPa level, about 33,000 ft) at the same time for the entire hemisphere. Several strong-wind hot spots are evident, with several showing winds exceeding 160 mph.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiehxyyG73TngQOb4Uz5k4O2A-yoXgugQvce6EI1d9vfzmaGJm-GF4VQ4g54dMs_VMfmOOmuZYBGv1-NsG25L9NjUITlsgE2m8eYLeZ4B2cKm_oigYQ-I8l8neAauCSdvRjcQ9eMlC3ptBSRHRXxozCVHJXgKnrER0Fu2O1-RdFjwcDzpjSYmDEoS6Fdvo/s2020/Screenshot%202024-02-22%20at%208.04.19%20PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2002" data-original-width="2020" height="470" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiehxyyG73TngQOb4Uz5k4O2A-yoXgugQvce6EI1d9vfzmaGJm-GF4VQ4g54dMs_VMfmOOmuZYBGv1-NsG25L9NjUITlsgE2m8eYLeZ4B2cKm_oigYQ-I8l8neAauCSdvRjcQ9eMlC3ptBSRHRXxozCVHJXgKnrER0Fu2O1-RdFjwcDzpjSYmDEoS6Fdvo/w474-h470/Screenshot%202024-02-22%20at%208.04.19%20PM.png" width="474" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">A forecast of the winds for next Wednesday at the same level shows very strong winds over the SE US, with plenty of "supersonic" potential around the world.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi8KcfMrKqslMstcGXKmI0mar9xtI-XKXGyQRE5yr7SJ1kGgmm9PnDymjvSe--w1P0Wezkf2k0xgroCtlByWjXlavaEPkhl6HqcTLdv1KBPYR3HxcABfngcesk6jy2OFWT27jRXh98TrJq3clMyo38om4Rjh9DDhUTLjKs6iqaNsE7wA8VYnvWBZUSZxMs" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1024" height="472" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi8KcfMrKqslMstcGXKmI0mar9xtI-XKXGyQRE5yr7SJ1kGgmm9PnDymjvSe--w1P0Wezkf2k0xgroCtlByWjXlavaEPkhl6HqcTLdv1KBPYR3HxcABfngcesk6jy2OFWT27jRXh98TrJq3clMyo38om4Rjh9DDhUTLjKs6iqaNsE7wA8VYnvWBZUSZxMs=w484-h472" width="484" /></span></a></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The southeast U.S. has done very well for strong winds during this period, but typically the strongest jet stream is found over southern Japan and out into the Pacific. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The strongest jet stream ever observed by a radiosonde? 259 mph near Yanongo Japan in 2004.</span></div></div><p></p><p><br /></p>Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-86498015259185442492024-02-20T21:07:00.000-08:002024-02-21T09:42:08.841-08:00Substantial Snow Returning to the Pacific Northwest<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">During even the strongest El Nino years there is often a period at the tail end of winter when the atmospheric circulation associated with El Nino collapses.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">When the atmosphere adjusts to considerably more solar radiation over the northern latitudes the "lock" of the tropical Pacific is lost.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">This re-adjustment will likely occur next week, leaving the door open to cool wet flow over our region.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">This means lots of mountain snow and even the chance of flakes near sea level.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Let me show you!</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The forecast for total snowfall through 1 PM Friday is hardly impressive, with a few inches in the mountains. Yawn.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6pbxy-tTp7h9Oe3iEt80pyPNyUlnSEZmb04LL_75hAsnyHgDaW2x2CTzIEMQYV2ZdKUjYZ6XzbJCY1xF97Q_1XO6CovbsiA2JI_1vW4roPlS3lGrYIkMd_1VnwpK9u2KTtCC5eHmnJyqWF4xFDSTWITwQ5sgXR40CZHPSVyizJQNxVzvhasKzmUkVjFA/s900/snowacc.81.0000.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="900" height="438" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6pbxy-tTp7h9Oe3iEt80pyPNyUlnSEZmb04LL_75hAsnyHgDaW2x2CTzIEMQYV2ZdKUjYZ6XzbJCY1xF97Q_1XO6CovbsiA2JI_1vW4roPlS3lGrYIkMd_1VnwpK9u2KTtCC5eHmnJyqWF4xFDSTWITwQ5sgXR40CZHPSVyizJQNxVzvhasKzmUkVjFA/w438-h438/snowacc.81.0000.gif" width="438" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">By 1 PM Sunday, the totals in the north Cascades and southern BC are healthier, reaching nearly a foot in favored locations.</span></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8f8qNt3wNzwwypBvl6x5Ve4aTptRj-5i_A4JW4dSpfVqH3NKas2JNXzbkqXSVNxK8AmTOnqZBz4bU4TLZoRPH4xhyphenhyphenMov4LaPxjdixRw0tfNs-NcT8kyZ1wbCKbiuw9U8kzmkICB4gtm0LbtygDgas7e6iAt8GOg9oYdnpRxkMZoq9NHJ5Te-AZL3fPG8/s900/snowacc.129.0000.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="900" height="466" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8f8qNt3wNzwwypBvl6x5Ve4aTptRj-5i_A4JW4dSpfVqH3NKas2JNXzbkqXSVNxK8AmTOnqZBz4bU4TLZoRPH4xhyphenhyphenMov4LaPxjdixRw0tfNs-NcT8kyZ1wbCKbiuw9U8kzmkICB4gtm0LbtygDgas7e6iAt8GOg9oYdnpRxkMZoq9NHJ5Te-AZL3fPG8/w466-h466/snowacc.129.0000.gif" width="466" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Fast forward to 1 PM Tuesday, and the Washington Cascades and Olympics have gained several feet. Considerable lowland snow is evident.</span></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihAfGMT8g9iuxMOZ7GGymfq-WpuRFNs6iQNU0BdoVzoYzR2tpko-G1e4RhWKbKOvg_XeI-ZyTEqHlXxDIPkN1fiXKhIJm64tXlu62vcKj2mBSnh7MrD7dgqFp9POTqausk2WjYEoawEHD8gcrjq8-xIa5ejwXtKRLjiXii0-wK5gVyNJcDZax3OyClMFM/s900/snowacc.177.0000.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="900" height="483" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihAfGMT8g9iuxMOZ7GGymfq-WpuRFNs6iQNU0BdoVzoYzR2tpko-G1e4RhWKbKOvg_XeI-ZyTEqHlXxDIPkN1fiXKhIJm64tXlu62vcKj2mBSnh7MrD7dgqFp9POTqausk2WjYEoawEHD8gcrjq8-xIa5ejwXtKRLjiXii0-wK5gVyNJcDZax3OyClMFM/w483-h483/snowacc.177.0000.gif" width="483" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">And by 10 PM Wednesday, February 29th. some mountain areas have gained 4 feet and parts of the western Washington lowlands have a thin veneer of snow.</span><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEih-nJRnlzcxffIdselGmXPD0LKqi8O0mODmvRPDQHwITfo1_pXbH09VAq4teY79_LTNXhaxplsk3esG5tVzQucXL-75XzsHZUmTs7MDtDMtblMmwOLgfSy3m0u5GyTY5F2q4zlfP1Ng9JD_ewZZOnx7RydH4m8N7g38RnceGgEqaE0T-0a69Lm0fYuO18" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="900" height="447" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEih-nJRnlzcxffIdselGmXPD0LKqi8O0mODmvRPDQHwITfo1_pXbH09VAq4teY79_LTNXhaxplsk3esG5tVzQucXL-75XzsHZUmTs7MDtDMtblMmwOLgfSy3m0u5GyTY5F2q4zlfP1Ng9JD_ewZZOnx7RydH4m8N7g38RnceGgEqaE0T-0a69Lm0fYuO18=w447-h447" width="447" /></span></a></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-size: medium;">So what is going on? </span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"> Examining the situation at around 18,000 ft (500 hPa) this morning, a strong trough of low pressure is found off the California coast. This is the kind of pattern that has been dominant over the last few months.</span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgt4bILvKn8SX_b_iaSFKgRbtXt8zxvLrKn_UtciWd2To1-ZcDbRDvI4hAkXW8PGiApJgyCykJSAxRTdFnUFZIKT-AqqZSSCZaaoezzCSkxkjOSWbaOPqmRmJTJQ7ro3uXuo5jKycCgdBT2CofHXQE0eOI9TYCYrsR7ykR_uczKpk7DNtWQN0uU994uzjI/s892/Screenshot%202024-02-20%20at%208.32.49%20PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="892" data-original-width="846" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgt4bILvKn8SX_b_iaSFKgRbtXt8zxvLrKn_UtciWd2To1-ZcDbRDvI4hAkXW8PGiApJgyCykJSAxRTdFnUFZIKT-AqqZSSCZaaoezzCSkxkjOSWbaOPqmRmJTJQ7ro3uXuo5jKycCgdBT2CofHXQE0eOI9TYCYrsR7ykR_uczKpk7DNtWQN0uU994uzjI/s320/Screenshot%202024-02-20%20at%208.32.49%20PM.png" width="303" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Fast forward to the end of the week (Sunday evening) and a very strong trough of low pressure is moving in. Classic snow producer for the NW.</span></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJu8qEdH5-oGA6jwZyzrIr0z6ToLs_1xvYHfaljbZzTN-vphDzNGlRdXKfNpD9ZztW8bIh1KI13s_szWZl-E4vcgtbP707da2zC4vT_umbcm8nOM2TLA6PENaijafGCOH3GHI5hcrxi84t1ucshCxrvzCYXnbzq33-jB64OhP9fn0ugf56O_murXlgmdE/s892/Screenshot%202024-02-20%20at%208.33.15%20PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="892" data-original-width="846" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJu8qEdH5-oGA6jwZyzrIr0z6ToLs_1xvYHfaljbZzTN-vphDzNGlRdXKfNpD9ZztW8bIh1KI13s_szWZl-E4vcgtbP707da2zC4vT_umbcm8nOM2TLA6PENaijafGCOH3GHI5hcrxi84t1ucshCxrvzCYXnbzq33-jB64OhP9fn0ugf56O_murXlgmdE/s320/Screenshot%202024-02-20%20at%208.33.15%20PM.png" width="303" /></span></a></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">But the shocker is the prediction for March 1 (below). Very cold, powerful trough off our coast. Very wet, very cold, and very snowy.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg5JauWWd9rSWXO2NHnIbPhxq1GYBRnd3AhsRlwT532o3HwZgHBljf2Nj2axt05XtrUVkQRuGR-ADLBF-8Un0AlC8X2VYr9v0hTXHLKFVhb2cv_WgFCD-DpSjZKxwVojQboGx-R37pePnw_GOfJBqUXm05xzgg_chTYO_2vw8EwQvX-rehZrgFFrxigkA8" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="892" data-original-width="846" height="331" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg5JauWWd9rSWXO2NHnIbPhxq1GYBRnd3AhsRlwT532o3HwZgHBljf2Nj2axt05XtrUVkQRuGR-ADLBF-8Un0AlC8X2VYr9v0hTXHLKFVhb2cv_WgFCD-DpSjZKxwVojQboGx-R37pePnw_GOfJBqUXm05xzgg_chTYO_2vw8EwQvX-rehZrgFFrxigkA8=w315-h331" width="315" /></span></a></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">All of this is a bit far out in time to be sure, but most of the solutions of ensemble forecast systems, in which the model is run many times with slight changes, produces similar predictions. You may not want to put away your winter gear quite yet.</span></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Keep tuned.</span></div><div><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p></div></div>Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.com16tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-78051529744828873622024-02-18T21:42:00.000-08:002024-02-18T21:42:27.865-08:00Dry Air Storm Hits Western Washington<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"> How do I put this tactfully?</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Have any of you noticed any dry or cracking skin?</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Or perhaps a parched mouth at night, requiring a sip of water?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">I have and I know exactly why it is happening:</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Desiccating, easterly downslope flow moving from eastern Washington into the coastal regions has occurred repeatedly during the past week.</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEAIYzmJoFTOTF_O6fZsciIMyooNMG5fHJirxSQ6FJx85_b3EUeVojCA_eIKM2V6lrsMl5jikBMSQ6YlhQqAjeMg9gp5At6qAUrGx-5lKraYyNuEH3fnhfVNP-iF1WO6WGC5icIVML9z6dqNjuHlm3Hu6Oq8FY-bdApD-c99Wn-d2Vd4-5pAFldJF8Ht4/s2454/Screenshot%202024-02-18%20at%203.28.35%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1570" data-original-width="2454" height="205" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEAIYzmJoFTOTF_O6fZsciIMyooNMG5fHJirxSQ6FJx85_b3EUeVojCA_eIKM2V6lrsMl5jikBMSQ6YlhQqAjeMg9gp5At6qAUrGx-5lKraYyNuEH3fnhfVNP-iF1WO6WGC5icIVML9z6dqNjuHlm3Hu6Oq8FY-bdApD-c99Wn-d2Vd4-5pAFldJF8Ht4/s320/Screenshot%202024-02-18%20at%203.28.35%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="320" /></span></a></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">A dry storm if you will. The Northwest version of the Sahara.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Consider the outdoor relative humidity at Seattle Tacoma Airport during the past week. Under 50% for nearly a day--dropping as low as 30%! A day before it got down to similar levels.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRVFsFCe3FA0R0H2Nkiy5jvSycBWlYqwr2sizKffnW3NI19m-09LkWNYxbzLKfhFR3V68es2RgcHf3roBj0Vdc2WRK8r5F6yav8fkkdLWWqKgWQ4pYESsvy1EI4mcLwzbSjvBoA1FtQWrTGt3cGE3zGumXMO0MoJPEa6ReqHr47Cxyo2Q_Yo2dZgNXCL4/s1200/chart%20(8).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1200" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRVFsFCe3FA0R0H2Nkiy5jvSycBWlYqwr2sizKffnW3NI19m-09LkWNYxbzLKfhFR3V68es2RgcHf3roBj0Vdc2WRK8r5F6yav8fkkdLWWqKgWQ4pYESsvy1EI4mcLwzbSjvBoA1FtQWrTGt3cGE3zGumXMO0MoJPEa6ReqHr47Cxyo2Q_Yo2dZgNXCL4/w579-h384/chart%20(8).png" width="579" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Portland (below) was even worse, with additional low-humidity episodes earlier in the week. There is a reason Portland is so bad...and it has to do with the Columbia Gorge (more later).</span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSpkV0Hu1-JCs1PHQZ5N0ikrd5zL1u6Y9koI2k2wCz2rhdwPcHU5_6VMMkzSJgmMC51pjeg2e7iR7GfyLuEpuCLBccOsb1E1rGyCtOOTElERucoo_qprGPNh9A4RnLb1mrbNybWBaVDBFGyFbmG6v3SWpBx4QhxP8KMC_iwWiaOuDUVDHED8L5m0j5ImA/s1200/chart%20(10).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1200" height="368" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSpkV0Hu1-JCs1PHQZ5N0ikrd5zL1u6Y9koI2k2wCz2rhdwPcHU5_6VMMkzSJgmMC51pjeg2e7iR7GfyLuEpuCLBccOsb1E1rGyCtOOTElERucoo_qprGPNh9A4RnLb1mrbNybWBaVDBFGyFbmG6v3SWpBx4QhxP8KMC_iwWiaOuDUVDHED8L5m0j5ImA/w551-h368/chart%20(10).png" width="551" /></span></a></div></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">But these are just point values, let me now show you the lowest relative humidities that occurred in Washington and British Columbia on Friday (below). </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Amazing. A large portion of northwest Washington and British Columbia had relative humidities dropping into the 20s! No wonder skin my need some ointment!</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjlYk_EsXWXT7-jswwEgs2PY6WgLOE4rpWr34whTfjEL26qYd8cmmhxMoQsqC9525SHTtOZPLCp2Ch9lYbatUmSDOlsMiFagRxY7H9ugWaCozBX3Lhi1mkB7EZgijeseIQ_ZQp_69L9_rQM5HYJf-dvsDkTkj79SkKd2QqKEr-tz71OO3g0y3v8nn07MLY" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1622" data-original-width="2390" height="369" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjlYk_EsXWXT7-jswwEgs2PY6WgLOE4rpWr34whTfjEL26qYd8cmmhxMoQsqC9525SHTtOZPLCp2Ch9lYbatUmSDOlsMiFagRxY7H9ugWaCozBX3Lhi1mkB7EZgijeseIQ_ZQp_69L9_rQM5HYJf-dvsDkTkj79SkKd2QqKEr-tz71OO3g0y3v8nn07MLY=w544-h369" width="544" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br />As you might expect, the uber-skillful UW WRF modeling system predicted the dry storm well in advance, as shown by the relative humidity prediction for 10 PM Thursday (below)</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgZuyZ96HllC8lTNZ7lVdT7KWvpGbeCCLhvHfUx9tY0PzadNrsRnXARtfKEaohWKv-G8oddGpc3ZHuA5X8jrnpuF3il3eZ793V9De9B_f2qAKUIUUobvfz0LFmWdXZ_NkPQ-K0Lepoqp5BxqNiais7QG6R-tfbf7UYYyJs747CMY2H4D2rMRByeU4ifOr4" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="644" data-original-width="1230" height="287" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgZuyZ96HllC8lTNZ7lVdT7KWvpGbeCCLhvHfUx9tY0PzadNrsRnXARtfKEaohWKv-G8oddGpc3ZHuA5X8jrnpuF3il3eZ793V9De9B_f2qAKUIUUobvfz0LFmWdXZ_NkPQ-K0Lepoqp5BxqNiais7QG6R-tfbf7UYYyJs747CMY2H4D2rMRByeU4ifOr4=w547-h287" width="547" /></span></a></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgBn7i68A7caq1skduhU-NjSYsJSs3SUrxOojG0uDextO52nsGGmb-_e1zw2rYeiKbUx1KT-Qckr_Bw6Y8nYyBUkxyxlWiqEIab6O7oghQTwOzIaav6AvXMaA6ydRwyx9UfaGeXUkROTxlJu0MQrBakLjIbpQ2QylhFGxSYttyuX87gb9M9uNJYXthNuOY" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="66" data-original-width="1738" height="22" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgBn7i68A7caq1skduhU-NjSYsJSs3SUrxOojG0uDextO52nsGGmb-_e1zw2rYeiKbUx1KT-Qckr_Bw6Y8nYyBUkxyxlWiqEIab6O7oghQTwOzIaav6AvXMaA6ydRwyx9UfaGeXUkROTxlJu0MQrBakLjIbpQ2QylhFGxSYttyuX87gb9M9uNJYXthNuOY=w587-h22" width="587" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>So why such dry air?</b></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The map below shows sea level pressure, near-surface winds, and lower-atmosphere temperatures at around 2500 ft ASL(color shading, blue and purple are cold) at 7 AM last Friday morning. Cold, dense air to the east produced high pressure, while a Pacific low-pressure center was offshore. There was an intense pressure difference over the Cascades due to cold air banking up on the eastern slopes of the barrier.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjQt8nOIDh_bEnIfHIJaakwPZMTp9vj8137CNj802UVRfEJWVISClpCBlxPIIGm94Y3YJQtqWjL5Gljmz9bZ2EepP9u6m0Wd6vELqvaEAmvF8hZXj3o-_L8dTKeeJnS3ukoaK-KfWqNmpUKQh_R8b_px_obB_LceWDhVMmF7zZpPicAg9OigpPQT8hYlyM" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="960" data-original-width="1580" height="305" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjQt8nOIDh_bEnIfHIJaakwPZMTp9vj8137CNj802UVRfEJWVISClpCBlxPIIGm94Y3YJQtqWjL5Gljmz9bZ2EepP9u6m0Wd6vELqvaEAmvF8hZXj3o-_L8dTKeeJnS3ukoaK-KfWqNmpUKQh_R8b_px_obB_LceWDhVMmF7zZpPicAg9OigpPQT8hYlyM=w503-h305" width="503" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Over terrain, air near the surface tends to move nearly directly from high to low pressure, and thus the pressure difference forces strong easterly (from the east) winds. Some of the winds moved directly over the mountains, while in places with gaps (like the Fraser River Valley and Columbia Gorge), cold air moved westward within sea level in the gaps.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"> <br />The cold air has low amounts of moisture since cold air holds far less moisture than warm air. As that air from eastern Washington crossed the Cascades and then descended the western slopes of the barrier, the air was warmed by compression, which caused the relative humidity to plummet.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Why? </span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"> Because relative humidity is the ratio of the amount of water vapor in a sample of air divided by the maximum amount it can hold. Warm air can hold more water vapor than cold air. Thus, relative humidity plummets for warming, sinking air.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgQhwzzXIxfWdC7Oo0_eXtTDy1DsvN1U1aFA0S5zboU8MJ0Ct1cO64WkF7qYOp45rp5QvdCVF0afnHUtVEsZgOXtGJe9wAK0BVniyvetP5uPRQd8iuz0GkObz8WKzwCh9WgN-ftxhlvZULuJZq_vYtYAt-SnowGAKqIPPFIscPi5gKbPdZvhZLL23UcuTA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="142" data-original-width="1514" height="62" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgQhwzzXIxfWdC7Oo0_eXtTDy1DsvN1U1aFA0S5zboU8MJ0Ct1cO64WkF7qYOp45rp5QvdCVF0afnHUtVEsZgOXtGJe9wAK0BVniyvetP5uPRQd8iuz0GkObz8WKzwCh9WgN-ftxhlvZULuJZq_vYtYAt-SnowGAKqIPPFIscPi5gKbPdZvhZLL23UcuTA=w666-h62" width="666" /></span></a></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The effects of downslope flow is the reason why the lowest relative humidities were downstream (west) of the terrain crest in the figure above.</span></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><b>The future outlook for relative humidity? Good news....no more dry storms on the horizon.</b></span><b><br /></b><br /><p><br /></p></div>Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-6994269528184745602024-02-16T08:57:00.000-08:002024-02-16T08:57:01.681-08:00California Enjoys the Northwest's Water<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"> Two years ago, media outlets were headlining strident messages that California had moved into a "megadrought" and that there was little hope for relief.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Story after story claimed that global warming had permanently changed the situation and that California's reservoirs would remain unfilled.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhbdIKNnXxWkUESEcyr4cuTbsa3ZrXsTs8tbZscLvDVKNkO-D1cWrRgYLIimB9Vp8z_gDvrz28FzRKpT18DNWekDM0yz7xWA9juafQKyRqYTiBF9XaBqnksR3bPLk_-7dc7_o1dvDPBTFCssZoj5K9Ooag0WDVCjT2MjWnO1jZdIFq8plcgy7EWu3F7r9w" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="666" data-original-width="1380" height="154" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhbdIKNnXxWkUESEcyr4cuTbsa3ZrXsTs8tbZscLvDVKNkO-D1cWrRgYLIimB9Vp8z_gDvrz28FzRKpT18DNWekDM0yz7xWA9juafQKyRqYTiBF9XaBqnksR3bPLk_-7dc7_o1dvDPBTFCssZoj5K9Ooag0WDVCjT2MjWnO1jZdIFq8plcgy7EWu3F7r9w" width="320" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br />Fast forward two years and these apocalyptic warnings appear more like a rendition of chicken-little than reliable climate science.</span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Massive rainfall has hit the Golden State, while we in the Northwest are enjoying a warmer-than-normal winter with less snowpack than normal.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Below is the percent of average precipitation for the last month over the western U.S. Some parts of California have received over 400% of normal!</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiZv26bkjXOr8ZAyfYki2xC3JAXMNFJV3T0DhjADxNH9kVpv9WsPQgOI3fJRSyxxSKIkeDz1YPD23LSGRNSXnJXM2Ps0cTLsSV9WQj12q4LdvYl-bwz5F5RgLNS2vH_aPP9eWlPWXn_AkgAsQgFcZv7lO4tIyhZ1oNc1Y8BWUidU8ADDQm90bpazgIotb8" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="612" data-original-width="792" height="367" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiZv26bkjXOr8ZAyfYki2xC3JAXMNFJV3T0DhjADxNH9kVpv9WsPQgOI3fJRSyxxSKIkeDz1YPD23LSGRNSXnJXM2Ps0cTLsSV9WQj12q4LdvYl-bwz5F5RgLNS2vH_aPP9eWlPWXn_AkgAsQgFcZv7lO4tIyhZ1oNc1Y8BWUidU8ADDQm90bpazgIotb8=w476-h367" width="476" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br />To illustrate the soggy California situation, below is the accumulated precipitation at Los Angeles since October 1 (the current water year). Brown indicates normal values. LA is now running about 40% above normal</span><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8a3yzvpQowpbxi_oi-bDLfgzHQ1wxgxDn_z_CZF6TCGCyZEQOMtbKdYfxxWB8vFxU6lyif3G5tkxvIfZjNK9lJIH2xuAswgFT7N0-HjAVFmoPP0b9U1ssM1vQ3oAxSb3ZlSOLQiS6h6dpTc540WrFqrcxZOXOH7Sdviua7J5dP5txZDzOAd824a0_j40/s2640/Screenshot%202024-02-16%20at%208.19.56%20AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1002" data-original-width="2640" height="227" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8a3yzvpQowpbxi_oi-bDLfgzHQ1wxgxDn_z_CZF6TCGCyZEQOMtbKdYfxxWB8vFxU6lyif3G5tkxvIfZjNK9lJIH2xuAswgFT7N0-HjAVFmoPP0b9U1ssM1vQ3oAxSb3ZlSOLQiS6h6dpTc540WrFqrcxZOXOH7Sdviua7J5dP5txZDzOAd824a0_j40/w601-h227/Screenshot%202024-02-16%20at%208.19.56%20AM.png" width="601" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Compare this to Seattle (below). We are slightly above normal. Precipitation-wise we running nearly exactly on climatology. That may surprise some.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbCHjzEqxo_uhUKJxfAy9Z4I2MY6Ehr6CPaI5QNkoSYWNClcmooYAy6PwBP_7YKGEh392Gc71sXG8_PvpdVsWbmzMYj2e7xh9P7Qeyg4ibuXD_mw0ZfPJeZCOsEQKEwvrIHW3U4A543FaStaMWHIupfbZQgXAaudqdwBF5NZLEYSWo6YyUXvPPE3j9gzM/s2640/Screenshot%202024-02-16%20at%208.20.33%20AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1002" data-original-width="2640" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbCHjzEqxo_uhUKJxfAy9Z4I2MY6Ehr6CPaI5QNkoSYWNClcmooYAy6PwBP_7YKGEh392Gc71sXG8_PvpdVsWbmzMYj2e7xh9P7Qeyg4ibuXD_mw0ZfPJeZCOsEQKEwvrIHW3U4A543FaStaMWHIupfbZQgXAaudqdwBF5NZLEYSWo6YyUXvPPE3j9gzM/w580-h219/Screenshot%202024-02-16%20at%208.20.33%20AM.png" width="580" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">As I have described in several previous blogs, we are now experiencing El Nino conditions, which tend to make California very wet, while our area generally experiences near-normal precipitation. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The latest forecast of accumulated precipitation through Tuesday shows a continuation of the pattern with heavy precipitation expected in California. And yes....only modest precipitation over Washington. Oregon enjoys a piece of this wet bounty.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiugEcXE2BK-iposA4hoAJHs2jkidEngTffc9iNrypwUDRLhFMUMdqhsna9rSbHT0feGqGQhizlIDh0vJSkTNFwMtCq8MszmlOS1H5zycWELV1jjg8NQCZIKq8-xwHyvuuAAF-MO_9DY6rZ9DdPfZf0cCpRvrfBavwkNS2JMCgHgrdcbLF6CHru6PG67pY" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1598" data-original-width="1028" height="438" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiugEcXE2BK-iposA4hoAJHs2jkidEngTffc9iNrypwUDRLhFMUMdqhsna9rSbHT0feGqGQhizlIDh0vJSkTNFwMtCq8MszmlOS1H5zycWELV1jjg8NQCZIKq8-xwHyvuuAAF-MO_9DY6rZ9DdPfZf0cCpRvrfBavwkNS2JMCgHgrdcbLF6CHru6PG67pY=w281-h438" width="281" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br />The origin of this wet situation is a strong El Nino low center off of Califonia, illustrated by the upper level (500-hPa pressure, about 18,000 ft) at 10 PM on Monday. The purple shading indicates an unusually strong low. I am getting tired of this pattern.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjjr1_6DTXqoJZDXCkY0xWXTh-sshNX_genqPwdvTjsA1YzBLBOzus9jlgpvqxolGBcwi9jaHhZpi53tm_99R2oZfw8SIkGOJrQCTd5slUH5mYtzSebuVvYN5jcI0k-6aooTp_o6ZY5iBI5G6P5RSTDsXdf8Xo-9gYicR0tJ1M0G3ucUKKfF2k4u5omIdk" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1640" data-original-width="1944" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjjr1_6DTXqoJZDXCkY0xWXTh-sshNX_genqPwdvTjsA1YzBLBOzus9jlgpvqxolGBcwi9jaHhZpi53tm_99R2oZfw8SIkGOJrQCTd5slUH5mYtzSebuVvYN5jcI0k-6aooTp_o6ZY5iBI5G6P5RSTDsXdf8Xo-9gYicR0tJ1M0G3ucUKKfF2k4u5omIdk=w450-h380" width="450" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br />The current extended prediction of accumulated precipitation through April 1 by the European Center model suggests this pattern is not going away, with very wet conditions over California, but drier than normal in the Washington Cascades (see below).</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgDu-sRcK0n0dz-OIz29yZ7Uz0KXnWjl9OhOBlHxMhSsfbtgV_7R5TTO0CVnxP94wXhvF0W1NfK6f9eiYGWhiWsy4vBoJ7kF3_dKaKA-ha0sg4aSAUS6IggEsGJ-U7Fa0X3r001bKrL-KmzEuACK0Uslv4An_sWGCA_p9RPn4JzG9Y2ALbwmt21lCsaB6s" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1606" data-original-width="1874" height="390" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgDu-sRcK0n0dz-OIz29yZ7Uz0KXnWjl9OhOBlHxMhSsfbtgV_7R5TTO0CVnxP94wXhvF0W1NfK6f9eiYGWhiWsy4vBoJ7kF3_dKaKA-ha0sg4aSAUS6IggEsGJ-U7Fa0X3r001bKrL-KmzEuACK0Uslv4An_sWGCA_p9RPn4JzG9Y2ALbwmt21lCsaB6s=w455-h390" width="455" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br />But what about the Northwest snowpack during the next few months? I will leave that to an upcoming blog.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><p><br /></p></div></div>Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-27603602040831509442024-02-13T21:30:00.000-08:002024-02-13T21:30:52.166-08:00Some Lowland Snow is Coming Western Washington Late Wednesday and Thursday<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Historically, the window for lowland snow over western Washington closes the last week of February.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">It appears that we are going to get some flakes before it is too late..... but not that many.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdE89Up4xRu7tuw8XLAsgC48-bjxJRyixE0aAcw5jJRUuHg5BQ4_1PVHx8OT7FpYheTvetWRRm7YmG3vE22G3n6hQ8FT_3CezdgPE-91zh-KN3hfmdv6FC0mzLE9ixqONhKaQBPF7FlTvmHJmYJs5Gq-2nh_KGEabrKrOmT0Dm9UzITE8uriYXHnQ35qg/s4000/rock-snow-cold-winter-texture-wind-frost-asphalt-ice-weather-soil-material-flake-snowfall-trees-icy-blizzard-snowflakes-freezing-forward-road-surface-snow-flurry-snow-storms-rain-and-snow-mixed-1247234.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3000" data-original-width="4000" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdE89Up4xRu7tuw8XLAsgC48-bjxJRyixE0aAcw5jJRUuHg5BQ4_1PVHx8OT7FpYheTvetWRRm7YmG3vE22G3n6hQ8FT_3CezdgPE-91zh-KN3hfmdv6FC0mzLE9ixqONhKaQBPF7FlTvmHJmYJs5Gq-2nh_KGEabrKrOmT0Dm9UzITE8uriYXHnQ35qg/s320/rock-snow-cold-winter-texture-wind-frost-asphalt-ice-weather-soil-material-flake-snowfall-trees-icy-blizzard-snowflakes-freezing-forward-road-surface-snow-flurry-snow-storms-rain-and-snow-mixed-1247234.jpg" width="320" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /><br />Let me start by showing you the latest forecast by the UW WRF prediction system. Below is the forecast sea level pressure and low-level temperature map for 10 PM tomorrow (Wednesday) night. </span><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Cold air (blue color) is found in British Columbia, Alberta, and Montana. Some pushes into eastern Washington.</span><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">A low-pressure center moves on to the northern Oregon coast, drawing cool air into western Washington. The trouble for western Washington snow is that the low is a bit too far south and temperatures are marginal. This pattern would push cool northeasterly flow through the Fraser River Valley into Whatcom County and the San Juans.<br /></span><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoAlRAQhVxtHmx5TBpOk9bOS1REFsnOBb8OdxDKu4FXvwVw3iBb8kvMZoE7ONNyYszFh3tqFaJZ2_e5QbY8PbEQGsmYg_Ot7s4hmvcv_fOo6MBtdPtsNroigshrkcRIIQ0hFPOL_uLgzIwf5ogLP3DdCGKjeS5gQnFHiDBFO9uGhvwRJsjU-B6L-nZL8E/s900/slp.30.0000.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="900" height="478" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoAlRAQhVxtHmx5TBpOk9bOS1REFsnOBb8OdxDKu4FXvwVw3iBb8kvMZoE7ONNyYszFh3tqFaJZ2_e5QbY8PbEQGsmYg_Ot7s4hmvcv_fOo6MBtdPtsNroigshrkcRIIQ0hFPOL_uLgzIwf5ogLP3DdCGKjeS5gQnFHiDBFO9uGhvwRJsjU-B6L-nZL8E/w478-h478/slp.30.0000.gif" width="478" /></a><br /><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The latest UW high-resolution forecast for snow accumulation through 1 PM Thursday, shows some lowland snow from roughly Olympia to Chehalis, and plenty over the south Cascades. The southeast side of the Olympics gets a few flakes as well.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">The Columbia Basin gets some light snow.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjC-9oenVaA5uKB8fBQ64DUDDr7mW5wFOengjzSjXvmwQJ7yc_Gzg-fLGDoVuh_kVGUTKgoDr_zB1DRi_aFjYKMk0wgm-uYkQLwOueLIN0QNXc_8gQMi9IKiDxV3TwIeKeTvK_zVZyWxJpJruwcHybq4K1cqZoSb3gE68TyLT5PuWtQ7uyQ4ZYSRTiJxgI/s900/wa_snowacc.45.0000.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="900" height="508" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjC-9oenVaA5uKB8fBQ64DUDDr7mW5wFOengjzSjXvmwQJ7yc_Gzg-fLGDoVuh_kVGUTKgoDr_zB1DRi_aFjYKMk0wgm-uYkQLwOueLIN0QNXc_8gQMi9IKiDxV3TwIeKeTvK_zVZyWxJpJruwcHybq4K1cqZoSb3gE68TyLT5PuWtQ7uyQ4ZYSRTiJxgI/w508-h508/wa_snowacc.45.0000.gif" width="508" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Nothing exciting perhaps, but snowflakes are always of interest. There is, of course, some uncertainty in the forecast, and the way to get at that is to examine an ensemble of many forecasts.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The City of Seattle SNOWWATCH website shows the ensemble forecasts for Seattle (see below). The gray lines are individual forecasts, and the ensemble average is in black. Many forecasts are going zero, but the average is about .5 inches and snow depth would be much less than that. Perhaps a dusting. Quite possibly nothing.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEggHCaYfANtlIVtvkkLzhzZ9nbCVOhUPkbdpnW6Wt-X1LvEJX4VIoPCbh1bEbi7QFNz-isHamO9k2Q75Yq_E2uDUtV_Gg3h1NO6uqPc5tOs6V2S_tMWWAiMZ_97uiaU7xsyFl6yKk-mXZ89jKMOEPeOBq-f8IUTwXEnLI-JYDPhx_4kJgnb1b1XONr__qc" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1218" data-original-width="2034" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEggHCaYfANtlIVtvkkLzhzZ9nbCVOhUPkbdpnW6Wt-X1LvEJX4VIoPCbh1bEbi7QFNz-isHamO9k2Q75Yq_E2uDUtV_Gg3h1NO6uqPc5tOs6V2S_tMWWAiMZ_97uiaU7xsyFl6yKk-mXZ89jKMOEPeOBq-f8IUTwXEnLI-JYDPhx_4kJgnb1b1XONr__qc=w501-h301" width="501" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div>In short, I would not be getting the sled out, but you might spot a few flakes.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><br /><br /></div></div></div></div></div>Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-64401282905045486762024-02-11T20:42:00.000-08:002024-02-11T20:42:31.642-08:00Why does El Nino Influence West Coast Weather?<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">As I have noted in a recent blog, it is no surprise that the low snowpack and warm temperatures have occurred over the Northwest during the past month or so.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><b>This is a very typical pattern during El Nino years.</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">In particular, during El Nino years, when the tropical Pacific is warmer than normal, we often experience low pressure off the West Coast, with storms shunted into California.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">To illustrate the current situation, here is the difference from normal of sea level pressure for the past two months. <b>You can see the anomalous low pressure to our southwest.</b></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhcRp8usQ-QfVsmxNPaJBAr48AkNmUpBw9vbKnMz8hFus_fIXoiqwCYfxYwpLV7l3xnzBkiIr70vQc2xD1AJWd_7Cnnf8eKvRU4CF7_ySKXMwr-Fjb9f5SO4FAOqxHhy6PS3ME3nqKtjQ72a6p8MiidBhuGBfLxdZYJprrs1pHk6ZY4EuGqFbxZegTzA9Y" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1026" data-original-width="1552" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhcRp8usQ-QfVsmxNPaJBAr48AkNmUpBw9vbKnMz8hFus_fIXoiqwCYfxYwpLV7l3xnzBkiIr70vQc2xD1AJWd_7Cnnf8eKvRU4CF7_ySKXMwr-Fjb9f5SO4FAOqxHhy6PS3ME3nqKtjQ72a6p8MiidBhuGBfLxdZYJprrs1pHk6ZY4EuGqFbxZegTzA9Y=w405-h268" width="405" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><p><span style="font-family: inherit;">This pattern pushes the jet stream south and leaves California wetter than normal. But their boom is our bust.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>But why does El Nino set up this pattern?</b></span></p></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Why do warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific associated with El Nino alter the pressure and wind patterns off the West Coast.<br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The answer to this question was found in the late 1970s and early 1980s by two researchers at the UW: graduate student John Horel and Professor Mike Wallace.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">First, the warm waters of El Nino (illustrated by the shaded area near the equator) perturb the atmosphere above. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">How? By creating lots of thunderstorms over the warm water. Thunderstorms that inject huge amounts of energy into the atmosphere (see below).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg6M9jviUMpRWyzVjx2lFG9GJ3v39I9-PUxkELWO3D0HUnOH5qWYk0trTXnOKi0UAmduuXR_ll9NxhXI9ZWJzDMO06LcyB1NtjjYjiRMwmPrUTdD0wIfsKPY7ty778Y_jTXwEQVFl6Rs8iKr93on1aKgh0ITBZg_2MXl1Hk-GVyvMpclfQAKoPEDy45IKE" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="309" data-original-width="404" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg6M9jviUMpRWyzVjx2lFG9GJ3v39I9-PUxkELWO3D0HUnOH5qWYk0trTXnOKi0UAmduuXR_ll9NxhXI9ZWJzDMO06LcyB1NtjjYjiRMwmPrUTdD0wIfsKPY7ty778Y_jTXwEQVFl6Rs8iKr93on1aKgh0ITBZg_2MXl1Hk-GVyvMpclfQAKoPEDy45IKE" width="314" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"> A series of waves....called <i>Rossby Waves</i>...then propagate into the midlatitudes, causing a series of low and high-pressure pressure areas (note the L's and H's in the figure in the figure below). </span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"> The jet stream....the current of strong winds in the upper troposphere... is distorted by this wave pattern (see the arrows in the figure). This pattern is generally associated with low pressure off the northern CA coast.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBiDfNazd_ef4VtitR46Fs9vf6zK5K0UhgAUGzcattFpeTZWYXFXoclFaBV3Irr7_RK6mDdu26_sPswV1X6CZPvgGGuesfv5Qm3YyHCZNtAw7rIwCrh9Q8psF76rWuE-x9QIA3ZwmfxLj7oqDagbMRPUs74DH-1mxauw2iB4kEhseDvtCnAZ2_lIDAXtQ/s660/Screenshot%202024-02-10%20at%208.09.16%20PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="660" data-original-width="648" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBiDfNazd_ef4VtitR46Fs9vf6zK5K0UhgAUGzcattFpeTZWYXFXoclFaBV3Irr7_RK6mDdu26_sPswV1X6CZPvgGGuesfv5Qm3YyHCZNtAw7rIwCrh9Q8psF76rWuE-x9QIA3ZwmfxLj7oqDagbMRPUs74DH-1mxauw2iB4kEhseDvtCnAZ2_lIDAXtQ/s320/Screenshot%202024-02-10%20at%208.09.16%20PM.png" width="314" /></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;">This situation is analogous to throwing a rock into a stream, with waves propagating away from where the rock hits the water. </span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">In the atmospheric case, big thunderstorms above the warm water act as the "rock,"</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUR0uCMyscIt_CcSnxWjwXGS14ED2fCP4fwld1Ou_b1VYiDCIu2vJqBE_scDC8va6lnHNaNXwz3y24rTfpJi9SK8Kt6-X3XWCaZZvLJu9fAdGoMDIp26DmpRUWgEvEOkUJsBuWvLfaUyzilHs7Q2ShBHnh20Em2yOV3yu3iZHF9MSO1WtFoWRMZJlOpTk/s1024/DALL%C2%B7E%202024-02-10%2020.21.20%20-%20%20concentric%20circles%20in%20lake.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUR0uCMyscIt_CcSnxWjwXGS14ED2fCP4fwld1Ou_b1VYiDCIu2vJqBE_scDC8va6lnHNaNXwz3y24rTfpJi9SK8Kt6-X3XWCaZZvLJu9fAdGoMDIp26DmpRUWgEvEOkUJsBuWvLfaUyzilHs7Q2ShBHnh20Em2yOV3yu3iZHF9MSO1WtFoWRMZJlOpTk/s320/DALL%C2%B7E%202024-02-10%2020.21.20%20-%20%20concentric%20circles%20in%20lake.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p><span style="font-size: medium;">During the next few months as El Nino makes way for La Nina, the central Pacific water will cool, the thunderstorms will shift westward, and the wave pattern change substantially.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><p><br /></p>Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-67985297101784414992024-02-09T21:22:00.000-08:002024-02-09T21:22:12.742-08:00Precipitation Returns to the Pacific Northwest<p><span style="font-size: medium;">There is some nervousness about the water situation in some quarters because of the current El Nino situation.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgty7j9k_5NTIZTwjHeiPibRMDNioI9m2h11GtLYx5vEt9Y8PIk61g5Q3RDVWkgu1mF73NHxlPYe8yVZE1uP75bQN_hIkJsunF156wNStQtA3Nq9zZTl_QlIfb9ebX-q1swh2svZ336rBkTp1QkJ_B_363Oty3QTKYFqOteftDYXzGf9ojIzGoN1FbqLss/s2496/Screenshot%202024-02-09%20at%208.24.48%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="300" data-original-width="2496" height="80" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgty7j9k_5NTIZTwjHeiPibRMDNioI9m2h11GtLYx5vEt9Y8PIk61g5Q3RDVWkgu1mF73NHxlPYe8yVZE1uP75bQN_hIkJsunF156wNStQtA3Nq9zZTl_QlIfb9ebX-q1swh2svZ336rBkTp1QkJ_B_363Oty3QTKYFqOteftDYXzGf9ojIzGoN1FbqLss/w672-h80/Screenshot%202024-02-09%20at%208.24.48%20PM.png" width="672" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-size: medium;">But although El Ninos tend to produce lower snowpack and warmer temperatures, the total precipitation is much less impacted. Consistent with this, several wet systems are expected during the next week.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">On Sunday, a wet system will move into the region, providing welcome precipitation over the region, including heavy stuff over southwest BC.</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxYGn6Gby7ZpCObtZT2fd7tOhg8yBhQSVs0vID2a-B7GDzPtC3LYPJ5C5vYvwCCRFozNLhiCctDQOSRxm_8ebZLA-abGzXtzfTKkh2GuctwCcylUPYtOPOC7DYPrqf2MnqnBmETUO2PLPI6KJitHTzgyOV7UO8YLpC_N90TRYa0j6RTeUO9-CAjvSHqfU/w434-h434/wa_pcpt.60.0000.gif" /></span></p><span style="font-size: medium;">This will be snow over higher elevations (above 4000 ft).</span><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Another moist system will come in on Wednesday associated with a Pacific warm front (see below), with bountiful snow in the mountains.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinBxyR_s7HAxLmtBfqdhKM3vtPM9e67rYLlpAyzGw-HWPBCr7ehOD3NI3DoywiR4AdXxro6zH6uKLJkGmpWftzZFwAnL8gMyIVecXpq3Scl-J72k__-SeBfviAYs7WSqvSREHavAJsZc8w4KPf8i-a5YsLRhHjZykpN5ppg6zGOff3N94TmnZHnWA3iHc/s1414/Screenshot%202024-02-09%20at%208.38.36%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1216" data-original-width="1414" height="366" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinBxyR_s7HAxLmtBfqdhKM3vtPM9e67rYLlpAyzGw-HWPBCr7ehOD3NI3DoywiR4AdXxro6zH6uKLJkGmpWftzZFwAnL8gMyIVecXpq3Scl-J72k__-SeBfviAYs7WSqvSREHavAJsZc8w4KPf8i-a5YsLRhHjZykpN5ppg6zGOff3N94TmnZHnWA3iHc/w426-h366/Screenshot%202024-02-09%20at%208.38.36%20PM.png" width="426" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The forecast over the next ten days, based on the European Center ensemble model, suggests copious precipitation over southwest BC and substantial amounts along the entire coast. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b> This is not a drought situation by any means. In fact, California will be in an excellent situation regarding water supplies.</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9UAqBI0gUgA4BkQXX5_Xam95y2RkmIFWNLknrcfyaiq6cZuI7VyLB0csOpPzyrhnXcabSSuBgfZxQlAs_aMrSSR51KQSnnkGPvx_0wSPmIvfj8vUq6DYdoAaSiWo6RbgtTSybhnTa2EtTaupnROOzBHGl7R238c4NMs3zGqaZpJ-tyZGE_Adp_7Q8MAI/s1756/Screenshot%202024-02-09%20at%208.32.38%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1482" data-original-width="1756" height="406" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9UAqBI0gUgA4BkQXX5_Xam95y2RkmIFWNLknrcfyaiq6cZuI7VyLB0csOpPzyrhnXcabSSuBgfZxQlAs_aMrSSR51KQSnnkGPvx_0wSPmIvfj8vUq6DYdoAaSiWo6RbgtTSybhnTa2EtTaupnROOzBHGl7R238c4NMs3zGqaZpJ-tyZGE_Adp_7Q8MAI/w481-h406/Screenshot%202024-02-09%20at%208.32.38%20PM.png" width="481" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The US Army Corps of Engineers and others controlling our local dams/reservoirs will hopefully store as much of this wet bounty as possible. They can do this because the weather models do not suggest any dangerous flooding situations for which they would need to draw down water levels.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">And for those worried about water and climate change, here is an interesting factoid. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>There has been no decline in spring precipitation over the past several decades.</b> In fact, just the opposite: the trends have been positive.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">For example, here are the spring precipitation totals back to 1947 at SeaTec. <b>Upward trend</b> (brown line).</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdYcs_fmft8pBydmysz_D-9aiWpmj7lZ91n_-1MXl7rgygcTzQ7B8M_KqBB39wWt-xSU75_niYWZKk-K-CxZtGjR4kj7nn6d2dcVH4mZWlYU9ExtecC59aK7K6UhRQhyphenhyphenJtDuJL8YJ1_PXYEgI28IP0k_clQYXjboqILqSN94QslgKHemrk7fa47pNTi0w/s1606/chart%20-%202024-02-09T204633.658.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1066" data-original-width="1606" height="307" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdYcs_fmft8pBydmysz_D-9aiWpmj7lZ91n_-1MXl7rgygcTzQ7B8M_KqBB39wWt-xSU75_niYWZKk-K-CxZtGjR4kj7nn6d2dcVH4mZWlYU9ExtecC59aK7K6UhRQhyphenhyphenJtDuJL8YJ1_PXYEgI28IP0k_clQYXjboqILqSN94QslgKHemrk7fa47pNTi0w/w463-h307/chart%20-%202024-02-09T204633.658.png" width="463" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Or consider Yakima, amid prime agricultural land in eastern Wa (below). Also getting more moist.</span></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWtfw_cF90RO7sXS5Bg_rrD04DDVHyCUqPU8XB5zHI6O6JD7gn_Q5d3Yb-5XjXaEqQxTZoi0RcKGHKsW3AdTboW5usaAcS7kysc0FmMxEQqteYytHccBzM_aM_Eew960WqWcDjIGIDD5CP8vQNtgEcBDTEmYeaGW1__P6F3CyKmkLgbZdiKX9pbe2MVws/s1606/chart%20-%202024-02-09T204732.108.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1066" data-original-width="1606" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWtfw_cF90RO7sXS5Bg_rrD04DDVHyCUqPU8XB5zHI6O6JD7gn_Q5d3Yb-5XjXaEqQxTZoi0RcKGHKsW3AdTboW5usaAcS7kysc0FmMxEQqteYytHccBzM_aM_Eew960WqWcDjIGIDD5CP8vQNtgEcBDTEmYeaGW1__P6F3CyKmkLgbZdiKX9pbe2MVws/w461-h306/chart%20-%202024-02-09T204732.108.png" width="461" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">So perhaps the talk of "languishing" and "little hope" should be put on the shelf somewhere.</span></b></div><p><br /></p></div>Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-10884663478126135572024-02-07T21:45:00.000-08:002024-02-08T10:22:41.836-08:00A Dominating El Nino<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Although the current El Nino may be entering its declining stage, the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are still quite war, and thus the impacts of the El Nino continue.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The evidence is <b>very strong</b> that this El Nino is the key driver of the low mountain snowpack this winter. Let me show you.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Below is the latest snowpack situation from the SNOTEL network. The western U.S. snowpack water content is below normal over the coastal states, ranging from about 80% of normal in California and Oregon to around 60% over Washington State.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgK_VSM_72518UnUr5hREtGZAUTViXNjNSRO38xoBAG0qbOU3YnA3RBdrqIc_HZQvWkZ0_0KontivlIqKCLv79Ryxm4T9Tvm2zHsSBouYYArNUP1SOJBoYqrYwQ4ppfdbpX0rinePyxEgtLVA4xz6JVgHp1cQaVSLVqDkuv0wKxqlBtQ3H_pQ9GuidW2Ys" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1322" data-original-width="1238" height="497" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgK_VSM_72518UnUr5hREtGZAUTViXNjNSRO38xoBAG0qbOU3YnA3RBdrqIc_HZQvWkZ0_0KontivlIqKCLv79Ryxm4T9Tvm2zHsSBouYYArNUP1SOJBoYqrYwQ4ppfdbpX0rinePyxEgtLVA4xz6JVgHp1cQaVSLVqDkuv0wKxqlBtQ3H_pQ9GuidW2Ys=w466-h497" width="466" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">So why this snowfall pattern?</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The precipitation difference from normal for the past 60 days shows a relatively wet California and Oregon, but drier than normal conditions in western Washington and the Cascades.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4zonvXU9qdw2g1ztK07ePqvpUb662VE2Irq4KqbuIHVhK2ANYDkd4VS1MKpk8bSSND0OOE8_P1eteriNW6rGqtZyQWg6nT8F7o-2jHdTO2ruHnO0kQWtNV5Z5UeTUwYom7KtdRPXG4_Vxn3C0Owz5pNsPBsZSw8rNeOD_-1CfiAu8Bz0Slaqpz9TJJAE/s792/anomimage%20(2).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="612" data-original-width="792" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4zonvXU9qdw2g1ztK07ePqvpUb662VE2Irq4KqbuIHVhK2ANYDkd4VS1MKpk8bSSND0OOE8_P1eteriNW6rGqtZyQWg6nT8F7o-2jHdTO2ruHnO0kQWtNV5Z5UeTUwYom7KtdRPXG4_Vxn3C0Owz5pNsPBsZSw8rNeOD_-1CfiAu8Bz0Slaqpz9TJJAE/w399-h308/anomimage%20(2).png" width="399" /></span></a></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">And most of the west has been warmer than normal. It all fits. The temperature and precipitation pattern explains the snow distribution. </span><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhr2RpR5s_wf3h27sUuSJfCXO5QjiYa6vhESDfMI7_DJQIcHkE2oth0E_O1nD0dLBmEHxeInxWh30UyPEjHkJ5UjXJu9trUcjlJLl47kJdIrLgOyHHK63NXM4Ip7uIx48o3Kte84aUi8twIPpK457UNQXALY930iH7hYvTt5f0RFy8i93o8j1aH6mU4yvs" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="612" data-original-width="792" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhr2RpR5s_wf3h27sUuSJfCXO5QjiYa6vhESDfMI7_DJQIcHkE2oth0E_O1nD0dLBmEHxeInxWh30UyPEjHkJ5UjXJu9trUcjlJLl47kJdIrLgOyHHK63NXM4Ip7uIx48o3Kte84aUi8twIPpK457UNQXALY930iH7hYvTt5f0RFy8i93o8j1aH6mU4yvs=w400-h308" width="400" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">But can we blame this on El Nino? </span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">NOAA has a nice webpage in which they show the typical winter conditions associated with El Ninos based on many events.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><b>Precipitation? </b>Wet California, dry western Washington. Looks like this winter!</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg7OWIK6b85uk1ncegTxxjPJ3-FPk0XVvJ90ZPepje1z6ZW_yURfG0Uc2ubfc3K89QD_1bkQaEWpjyy70x825bcx0xBTporqQamuI6aPTXrNgn6f94TLuSbVr--NGzSyrcNxgwRdDxztGDx0w798EF9-UjZxwDMzxmE7zlFuhG94kZLnh4hxvbHNAfx_sY" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1300" data-original-width="1296" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg7OWIK6b85uk1ncegTxxjPJ3-FPk0XVvJ90ZPepje1z6ZW_yURfG0Uc2ubfc3K89QD_1bkQaEWpjyy70x825bcx0xBTporqQamuI6aPTXrNgn6f94TLuSbVr--NGzSyrcNxgwRdDxztGDx0w798EF9-UjZxwDMzxmE7zlFuhG94kZLnh4hxvbHNAfx_sY=w424-h426" width="424" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br />The temperature during El Nino winters? Warmer than normal over the West Coast. <b>Just like this year.</b></span><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhOQ92T23JjOpzWC9dOcp08V_XAxx-dUd6mCXZn_jRDh46iZyGojWuCsFyEeoOm95op4tuVOJ_BAxv2qQYf2fkVKPRatEp_i0850uOGJsJ3RXE_SlmKD7F6nECkfCK_aXFQRVOdj4cm7Y2aMyUTk4cmQ2icdOE9FnMLj7VGg0txQ6F3N-QHpSejNs_YCxs" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1300" data-original-width="1296" height="415" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhOQ92T23JjOpzWC9dOcp08V_XAxx-dUd6mCXZn_jRDh46iZyGojWuCsFyEeoOm95op4tuVOJ_BAxv2qQYf2fkVKPRatEp_i0850uOGJsJ3RXE_SlmKD7F6nECkfCK_aXFQRVOdj4cm7Y2aMyUTk4cmQ2icdOE9FnMLj7VGg0txQ6F3N-QHpSejNs_YCxs=w413-h415" width="413" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><i>So the precipitation and temperature anomalies from normal fit the El Nino expectations like a glove.</i></span><p></p><p><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Do you want even more evidence that the low snowpack has the fingerprints of El Nino all over it?</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The warm western U.S. and wet California situation this year has been caused by persistent low pressure off the West Coast. Here is a map of the difference from normal at the height of the 500 hPa pressure level (about 18, 000 ft) for December 1-February 5. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><b>An anomalous low is found offshore</b>. Such lows have warm southwesterly flow on their southern and eastern flanks. This explains the warmth of this winter and wet conditions over California. Note the higher-than-normal heights (pressures) over the northern Plains.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhtXzhKXRzV9RvQc2vyerOyuH2UVMJ0LBFNMZZtNIA6nuoJdVl1nKVkjXtKqDrB3H_vTxE1uOCncnwOC0HuDeNT1qQR5sbKDZkyk-lOU2t0UqwLeRMenpVv_TcuMsAUiU6RwBRhvZwMwKGr-AuX8-a6S3Rvc97urZ1E_skwSpD63hcLpOpa2GdWhV7V1Hg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="542" data-original-width="700" height="307" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhtXzhKXRzV9RvQc2vyerOyuH2UVMJ0LBFNMZZtNIA6nuoJdVl1nKVkjXtKqDrB3H_vTxE1uOCncnwOC0HuDeNT1qQR5sbKDZkyk-lOU2t0UqwLeRMenpVv_TcuMsAUiU6RwBRhvZwMwKGr-AuX8-a6S3Rvc97urZ1E_skwSpD63hcLpOpa2GdWhV7V1Hg=w397-h307" width="397" /></span></a></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><b>This is exactly the kind of pattern typical of El Nino years.</b> Want proof? Another NOAA website has a composite of El Nino years for the same level. Same pattern. Strong low offshore.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgJ_jPk2VmInug9VkkEEUy2Di-By9z65pMDFfW6jD4w6n_ctNCEMoOyApxKxRSEfrlcI87ZyTAhIzMKSiC_AZbUV4HO6PwGguWgHpK0eUFliYxLIAWeZR_6jitdS7wOaAOPzWRhocNsG1sU10DWqPcOXGtF6W62ZsgJNTDrnG_GaQzHflEsHEp7mZP1W84" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="342" data-original-width="484" height="253" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgJ_jPk2VmInug9VkkEEUy2Di-By9z65pMDFfW6jD4w6n_ctNCEMoOyApxKxRSEfrlcI87ZyTAhIzMKSiC_AZbUV4HO6PwGguWgHpK0eUFliYxLIAWeZR_6jitdS7wOaAOPzWRhocNsG1sU10DWqPcOXGtF6W62ZsgJNTDrnG_GaQzHflEsHEp7mZP1W84=w358-h253" width="358" /></span></a></div><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgAWfOSh3MFzldOMllKCJqWcI0v_IUWQMAXidRgDc3X3QF6ZLQaORKhGl6Gd3nBxJW8aX-V-03Mcwl1vE4CH-_YZ1Siv83JAJKHfvQXbKLjnTuC79r9CXqcNeWEqX9EQ4tf231iR55whGW_UG8VvY4MwI1xdjxMU5K0TPS_-jWTRBrmnX46c4QEGrGXJ3Q" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img alt="" data-original-height="148" data-original-width="854" height="55" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgAWfOSh3MFzldOMllKCJqWcI0v_IUWQMAXidRgDc3X3QF6ZLQaORKhGl6Gd3nBxJW8aX-V-03Mcwl1vE4CH-_YZ1Siv83JAJKHfvQXbKLjnTuC79r9CXqcNeWEqX9EQ4tf231iR55whGW_UG8VvY4MwI1xdjxMU5K0TPS_-jWTRBrmnX46c4QEGrGXJ3Q" width="320" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Some local media are blaming the lack of Northwest snow on global warming, but they are wrong. The cause is the naturally varying El Nino/La Nina oscillation.</span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><b>A strong El Nino is the enemy of Northwest mountain snows. </b> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">But this enemy has only months to live. Wise reservoir managers understand that in such El Nino years, they must store as much water as possible during the rainy season. The managers of the City of Seattle reservoir system are some of the wise ones-- Seattle's reservoirs are now <b>well above normal!</b> (see below). I suspect there will be no lack of water for the Puget Sound region this summer.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg1e_mWTHSKgwX__w51NCz0cHjE4O2LjLxXnzs4bQAzpj54qVHuV_nbRs0rDsww9RmG4Et5ih18Vqc7uep_6HUhKp91O1KEOQS2MXYXhzDQJrySYZp1I9kWLp0jU_4YgrjGrCiDLDgPmSfAi9-jOIETYTlr71Sx9QK5XoIg70pbU0Hy5B13z082FRBS4Zc" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="374" data-original-width="652" height="292" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg1e_mWTHSKgwX__w51NCz0cHjE4O2LjLxXnzs4bQAzpj54qVHuV_nbRs0rDsww9RmG4Et5ih18Vqc7uep_6HUhKp91O1KEOQS2MXYXhzDQJrySYZp1I9kWLp0jU_4YgrjGrCiDLDgPmSfAi9-jOIETYTlr71Sx9QK5XoIg70pbU0Hy5B13z082FRBS4Zc=w508-h292" width="508" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /><br /></span><p></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><br /></p>Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-82458810568614262612024-02-05T21:05:00.000-08:002024-02-05T21:05:06.908-08:00Is Northwest Snow History? Scientific Errors in A Major Seattle Times Climate Story<p><span style="font-size: medium;"><b> I am getting tired of writing blogs on this issue.</b></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Another Seattle Times front-page story pushing a false narrative on climate change came out on Sunday. A story that is full of scientific errors. An advocacy piece that poorly informs its readers.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">This article, part of a <i>ClimateLab</i> series, claims that global warming is causing our regional precipitation to increasingly fall as rain, rather than snow. And that this year is a sample of the future of our region.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjI_mma5Cftlf9bpcOfuqDRvW8JPlQIg2SEaNL2vOby0XpaNy_7mdG5x4c1A5GkdHzDhza2p2ujop36YTHgGjOjdu_0RrJtct6caQnRAhKSUmyisKRiq76M2gEPdnTHR2KbTwUVHphZ83qS42I1X9hxiSGE4_zmJZTAaFerEKvTJ9hvRr38JrLTH98XXOs/s2020/Screen%20Shot%202024-02-04%20at%207.10.56%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1332" data-original-width="2020" height="211" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjI_mma5Cftlf9bpcOfuqDRvW8JPlQIg2SEaNL2vOby0XpaNy_7mdG5x4c1A5GkdHzDhza2p2ujop36YTHgGjOjdu_0RrJtct6caQnRAhKSUmyisKRiq76M2gEPdnTHR2KbTwUVHphZ83qS42I1X9hxiSGE4_zmJZTAaFerEKvTJ9hvRr38JrLTH98XXOs/s320/Screen%20Shot%202024-02-04%20at%207.10.56%20PM.png" width="320" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-size: medium;">This article is guilty of acts of omission. Of citing questionable sources. And of wrong and inaccurate statements.</span><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">Let me tell you about a few.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>El Nino's Impacts</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">This report talks about low snowpack this year but does not make clear that El Nino is the key cause, not climate change. This winter has been influenced by a strong El Nino, which typically caused less snowfall over the Northwest and lots of rain over California after the new year.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">Both are happening, as expected.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Snowpack Hype</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">The article states that since 1955 the region's snowpack has declined by one-third.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">This is very deceptive. The mid-1950s was an unusually cold/snowy period. Cold and snowy due to natural variability (such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation).</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">Let's look at the change in Northwest snowpack over the past 40 years.... a period when global warming has been greatest (see below). Below is the snow water content (called SWE) over the region on April 1, right before the melt season.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><u>Virtually no change over the past four decades.</u></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">Not what the Seattle Times is suggesting.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjzJANe4NHOKoDCipJDQlTgBseSJMGG24NtlrrrkxC-bcuzpPUXke3HKVznwh41F4Pez9L596lreC70IE1Jwt1BZkshBY91Dugahr2JCSbYcNLNUL6Po20ugPVSK-RXWisD8ANaT-wqj0rJvbTXHHpn0GjQ3ezKa-7wHVBRSvu9iuw7GQFzGnRm8FP7bpM" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1454" data-original-width="2026" height="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjzJANe4NHOKoDCipJDQlTgBseSJMGG24NtlrrrkxC-bcuzpPUXke3HKVznwh41F4Pez9L596lreC70IE1Jwt1BZkshBY91Dugahr2JCSbYcNLNUL6Po20ugPVSK-RXWisD8ANaT-wqj0rJvbTXHHpn0GjQ3ezKa-7wHVBRSvu9iuw7GQFzGnRm8FP7bpM=w462-h332" width="462" /></a></div><br />The article then states that:</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; color: #231f20; font-family: ff-meta-serif-web-pro;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; color: #231f20; font-family: ff-meta-serif-web-pro;"><i><span style="font-size: medium;">the snow that does reach the ground is melting earlier in the year as our dry season trends longer and hotter. </span></i></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>This is simply not true.</b> For example, consider the melt-out date at Steven's Pass (4000 ft) over the past four decades (see below).</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">The Seattle Times got it completely wrong. The melt-out dates are trending LATER, not earlier!</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgxXoP6XiJYndOdtkZgKhezJqLYDPq7gWwTuHlayk1vi7E_Lr6_I8CUl2MvN_yW8afDoMO0HuQlSNgzb7V-30g1QnsqwLpEmdztBW49acwmYzk5L67Q2gkSr-PTYYwNn4qR-pZfg4Jdb2mkYs0kLuwWe_HMQ2meCVoTvNd3pxHHrvZgk40xMhHgNHOSFFk" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1450" data-original-width="1962" height="358" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgxXoP6XiJYndOdtkZgKhezJqLYDPq7gWwTuHlayk1vi7E_Lr6_I8CUl2MvN_yW8afDoMO0HuQlSNgzb7V-30g1QnsqwLpEmdztBW49acwmYzk5L67Q2gkSr-PTYYwNn4qR-pZfg4Jdb2mkYs0kLuwWe_HMQ2meCVoTvNd3pxHHrvZgk40xMhHgNHOSFFk=w486-h358" width="486" /></a></div>Here are the average melt-out dates at Stevens by decade, if you don't like to read graphs:</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><span> </span>1980s: 30 May<br />
1990s: 1 June<br />
2000s: 2 June<br />
2010s: 4 June<br />
2020s: 6 June<br /><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">Later melt out, not earlier.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">Paradise Ranger Station at 5000 ft is very similar--no trend towards early melt-out</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">1980s 10 July 10<br />
1990s 15 July 10 <br />
2000s 10 July 10<br />
2010s 13 July 10</span></div>
<div><span style="font-size: medium;">2020<span class="gmail_default">s</span> <span class="gmail_default">15</span> July <span class="gmail_default">4</span></span></div></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>What about reservoir levels? </b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">You would think that lower-level reservoirs would be showing a trend toward dropping water levels, but the Seattle Times OWN GRAPH for Chester Morse Lake shows no downward trend over the past 20 years (see below). No climate signal is evident.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgv5LCxnj16Un38tJ7XJhIDDf48Fv00aZoyLQEWJXywIR57792IQGBpVKuBaX1Cj2B76raCTg2de33PJtXatiiVmKqXyvscuM5QkeljVbdzr86q8VxWj5dIFPpCMSw69_OI_G82liVWSdT2OHXITYx2NJyKJvEGCqAnKvQbaMHZgYhBJrLZcLKdi3jcC2Y/s1700/Screen%20Shot%202024-02-05%20at%208.21.15%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1212" data-original-width="1700" height="327" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgv5LCxnj16Un38tJ7XJhIDDf48Fv00aZoyLQEWJXywIR57792IQGBpVKuBaX1Cj2B76raCTg2de33PJtXatiiVmKqXyvscuM5QkeljVbdzr86q8VxWj5dIFPpCMSw69_OI_G82liVWSdT2OHXITYx2NJyKJvEGCqAnKvQbaMHZgYhBJrLZcLKdi3jcC2Y/w459-h327/Screen%20Shot%202024-02-05%20at%208.21.15%20PM.png" width="459" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Courtesy of the Seattle Times</span></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>A Snow-Free Future?</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">This article really goes into scary, apocalyptic mode when it describes the future, suggesting that as much as SEVENTY PERCENT of the snowpack could be gone by the mid-2080s. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">My research group has completed detailed regional climate simulations using reasonable increases in greenhouse gases (RCP 4.5) and found a decline in snowpack about half of what the Seattle Times is quoting. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">A challenge, but 75% is a lot better than 30%. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhG26AggrK2V_w9_TOqJEWy1wrqYB9SmBF5sDQxjIKhAQy8QeAYnCtttt54cfjv_hSkV0Wcvxn6rket07ki3lrSP497fU5B0VPdX_pYDt2h5OnOK5hRtpVxo_45EC7BGWe1ssxwM3TpoeHEADz5nrhOxgcwhvA2_yln00jF8PMrSzPrePwhHiszdojEnHE" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1374" data-original-width="1502" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhG26AggrK2V_w9_TOqJEWy1wrqYB9SmBF5sDQxjIKhAQy8QeAYnCtttt54cfjv_hSkV0Wcvxn6rket07ki3lrSP497fU5B0VPdX_pYDt2h5OnOK5hRtpVxo_45EC7BGWe1ssxwM3TpoeHEADz5nrhOxgcwhvA2_yln00jF8PMrSzPrePwhHiszdojEnHE" width="262" /></a></div><br /></span><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Finally, this Seattle Times article does not consider some important mitigating factors for the future.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">For example, precipitation should <b>increase</b> modesty during this century due to global warming, providing <b>more water </b>to store behind dams and in reservoirs. And great improvements in long-range weather prediction allow reservoirs to remain much higher since better predictions provide more warning of storms and thus time to lower reservoir levels if needed.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">This Seattle Times article was financed by a collection of activist foundations and the University of Washington. <b> It shows the dangers of advocacy journalism. </b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p></div>Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.com29tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-5126442958082126372024-02-03T12:32:00.000-08:002024-02-03T12:32:50.805-08:00The Real Story of the 2021 Northwest Heatwave<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"> In addition to my public outreach activities, such as this blog, I have a "day job" as a professor of atmospheric sciences, where I not only teach a collection of classes but do research and publish.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">During the past few years, I have been actively studying the 2021 Northwest heatwave with my students and staff (and outside researchers), and have published two papers in the peer-reviewed, refereed literature on this event (see below, including links to read them yourselves).</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDSQ7GEiQyXi8zy-Z_2XVhq4ye69CJdXiHmsiPNkKPbjjvn5ORu_qNnPtc4ZEloW3tGtNEz8szOfAX70j1WlEcA-iEtkRdGR7tHvwhhLfvDBdjlv3fr3jHkUYZLOhXlj_w9XWJxaSMfvrL4mY8MCPxGdUSNy4nwVR3B1z_eHSuYzAV-0vZPTsqb3qWyHM/s1374/Screen%20Shot%202024-02-03%20at%209.48.59%20AM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="358" data-original-width="1374" height="145" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDSQ7GEiQyXi8zy-Z_2XVhq4ye69CJdXiHmsiPNkKPbjjvn5ORu_qNnPtc4ZEloW3tGtNEz8szOfAX70j1WlEcA-iEtkRdGR7tHvwhhLfvDBdjlv3fr3jHkUYZLOhXlj_w9XWJxaSMfvrL4mY8MCPxGdUSNy4nwVR3B1z_eHSuYzAV-0vZPTsqb3qWyHM/w560-h145/Screen%20Shot%202024-02-03%20at%209.48.59%20AM.png" width="560" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hPePHGq5EiHqwvzm0mqYnVqcDp_no8Sr/view?usp=sharing"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Link to Paper</span></a></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjh6QeqaFa2XV_1HgG2gqQSqIUjEt_uJnnUvOQ8EUz-7MRg_dC44bJgiGokSkBYxWW3llgLY_IYPVF1FJYCovmXpEmVOArxVcpV-1cM-AN-tbHIlerIqLogoO61i44wEHEYeCjww8rsZevYB5RZzvDaoJppqwbIpYBKvUVdDPcxwRargxN3LGWa5d5sAIQ/s1366/Screen%20Shot%202024-02-03%20at%209.49.50%20AM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="296" data-original-width="1366" height="115" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjh6QeqaFa2XV_1HgG2gqQSqIUjEt_uJnnUvOQ8EUz-7MRg_dC44bJgiGokSkBYxWW3llgLY_IYPVF1FJYCovmXpEmVOArxVcpV-1cM-AN-tbHIlerIqLogoO61i44wEHEYeCjww8rsZevYB5RZzvDaoJppqwbIpYBKvUVdDPcxwRargxN3LGWa5d5sAIQ/w535-h115/Screen%20Shot%202024-02-03%20at%209.49.50%20AM.png" width="535" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1OZ-vb3jgBotPbXbMmj2S1GeDjySgTvnT/view?usp=sharing"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Link to Paper</span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The conclusions of this peer-reviewed research are somewhat different from some of the extreme claims by some in the media and by some activist groups, and I want to show you some of the evidence.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><b>The bottom line: natural variability </b>was the key cause of the heat wave, with human-caused global warming playing only a small role.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Let me show you some of the most interesting graphics from the paper.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">One strong finding was that the June 2023 extreme temperatures were unique and crazy extreme. The heat was NOT the result of slow planetary warming that one would expect from increasing CO2 for human emissions.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The 2024 paper demonstrates this fact in several ways. Below is a plot of the annual warmest surface temperatures for the entire record at Quillayute, on the Washington Coast, and Lytton, BC, where Canada's all-time high temperature was observed.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgA7YjSDVuk_wOcFsomYIVltPr3jQANLgpS-qc7tiExtsKE_bQAnVnIyZCoYb_eaDk9NUj7CKlnL5Uo5subfjpjmNdPXicCLthmJCt8I9_mFeUHRoHbqXKrIy53KQqtbEtTIdaaIlfPJs6hlAfjMg8ZiUXF46UdzGz3dJ43yt-dDjaHT35GjY9itwbMUCo/s768/Screen%20Shot%202024-02-03%20at%2010.03.37%20AM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="736" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgA7YjSDVuk_wOcFsomYIVltPr3jQANLgpS-qc7tiExtsKE_bQAnVnIyZCoYb_eaDk9NUj7CKlnL5Uo5subfjpjmNdPXicCLthmJCt8I9_mFeUHRoHbqXKrIy53KQqtbEtTIdaaIlfPJs6hlAfjMg8ZiUXF46UdzGz3dJ43yt-dDjaHT35GjY9itwbMUCo/s320/Screen%20Shot%202024-02-03%20at%2010.03.37%20AM.png" width="307" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Note that high temperatures at both stations were absolutely unique: not only the highest in record but radically higher than previous high temperatures. I have also placed a trend line on there as well. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">There is a small upward trend on average (about 1°C over the past 40 years)...and that could be due to human forcing. </span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><b>But this trend hardly explains the huge warm anomaly in 2021.</b></span></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Another way to see how anomalous June 2021 was is to plot the frequency of annual high temperatures over the entire record (see below for Portland, Quillayute, and Lytton, BC). The red arrow shows the value in 2021.</span></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Amazing. The 2021 high temperatures are from a different world. Nothing is even close.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAT1Rrwl_Fx3Fmzi8mO__fJ44TtUejOn1zQ1z974gEMaxpaUm5u-zkkuAXhaSzY8V0JvE5yHZwpYO1TqCslgntWRDAKHr1dELivhLHTQdURsdLtTf7BxIGYmrA_uIKR2m_xg2yiquzItl6MU1jshJw9_hNZ-UW0-mDG6zI9GzUiKofe869KBv3-WkTanE/s728/Screen%20Shot%202024-02-03%20at%2010.04.33%20AM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="644" data-original-width="728" height="283" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAT1Rrwl_Fx3Fmzi8mO__fJ44TtUejOn1zQ1z974gEMaxpaUm5u-zkkuAXhaSzY8V0JvE5yHZwpYO1TqCslgntWRDAKHr1dELivhLHTQdURsdLtTf7BxIGYmrA_uIKR2m_xg2yiquzItl6MU1jshJw9_hNZ-UW0-mDG6zI9GzUiKofe869KBv3-WkTanE/s320/Screen%20Shot%202024-02-03%20at%2010.04.33%20AM.png" width="320" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">In my paper, we tried a different, independent approach to determine whether that 2021 heatwave was unprecedented. My co-author, John Christy of the University of Alabama, a world-leader in the use of satellite data to measure earth's temperature, looked at lower-atmosphere temperatures from 1979 to today, all based on sophisticated satellite measurements. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The map below shows the difference from normal of the temperatures for a five-day period encompassing the 2021 heatwave. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Wow. A HUGE warm temperature anomaly over our region. </span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><b>Nothing like it anywhere on the planet.</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjE0_3hhpnrUy5NgsO6PEhbx1VwpS_9K1Z-WUGxp8Y3NqBbhtVtePLJLCYpEH0CASf9WaI5WNxZz3p86ih5odA7pmwcrhqaLCbq7S-iG3c3J2HRHpLiCjua4jCqYmPrZ_C4BSyykW-8dc16bBpKPW4Ut8Hfwve141jy0yBotYoPQutICZo1lqCjlNiY-1Y/s1500/Screen%20Shot%202024-02-03%20at%2010.05.00%20AM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="814" data-original-width="1500" height="254" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjE0_3hhpnrUy5NgsO6PEhbx1VwpS_9K1Z-WUGxp8Y3NqBbhtVtePLJLCYpEH0CASf9WaI5WNxZz3p86ih5odA7pmwcrhqaLCbq7S-iG3c3J2HRHpLiCjua4jCqYmPrZ_C4BSyykW-8dc16bBpKPW4Ut8Hfwve141jy0yBotYoPQutICZo1lqCjlNiY-1Y/w467-h254/Screen%20Shot%202024-02-03%20at%2010.05.00%20AM.png" width="467" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Then he found something startling. <b>This extreme warmth over our region was the warmest s anomaly during mid-summer anywhere in the northern hemisphere for the ENTIRE observational record.</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The 2024 paper also determined the ingredients that produced the insane 2021 heatwave.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">We showed there there was the strongest ridge of high pressure aloft of the entire meteorological record (see figure below at 500 hPa...about 18,000 ft) over our region. We also note that there is no scientific evidence that global warming produces stronger ridges ( I have published papers on this issue)</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEictePXue7WuFAYUBruoWdSIKl4_MiUclBLbsoO-bnE9_Bad3vAB9LMc0duO7J4gQxECnHXJEK6aPj-stNZxhQeyGG95oWPCbXw4ttDaKBVgZOTAwXwuIEKJUA4moZrqfMb6UsvVuoRWiFnIRiuUsHwzJCXc48ACUTU-d5mGIxhbEHyTS03di4LOI7A99s/s608/Screen%20Shot%202024-02-03%20at%2010.21.43%20AM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="514" data-original-width="608" height="271" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEictePXue7WuFAYUBruoWdSIKl4_MiUclBLbsoO-bnE9_Bad3vAB9LMc0duO7J4gQxECnHXJEK6aPj-stNZxhQeyGG95oWPCbXw4ttDaKBVgZOTAwXwuIEKJUA4moZrqfMb6UsvVuoRWiFnIRiuUsHwzJCXc48ACUTU-d5mGIxhbEHyTS03di4LOI7A99s/s320/Screen%20Shot%202024-02-03%20at%2010.21.43%20AM.png" width="320" /></span></a></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">A recently published paper (see below) traces this extreme high pressure to a long train of atmospheric waves originating in the western Pacific. These waves were initiated by a very unusual configuration of sea surface temperature and moisture.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjecdxMg4d1U0wlO1r6C-AykteSnAxxIzUi7g3oOFVXtqoxIql33QvsEv1TVKsK-Bz2Tw3f_425MSO7Uc3qgyZoo_7HjkOlSe2X0lGZDLces4dt8Vt-6j-B8tOSAlBGMzSmqXQ99m70GPzJrxqFgcka5oK3OGg3LPfcHiO-GXpfKDU2PV5gMzlWREAx94I/s1496/Screen%20Shot%202024-02-03%20at%2011.49.56%20AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="524" data-original-width="1496" height="112" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjecdxMg4d1U0wlO1r6C-AykteSnAxxIzUi7g3oOFVXtqoxIql33QvsEv1TVKsK-Bz2Tw3f_425MSO7Uc3qgyZoo_7HjkOlSe2X0lGZDLces4dt8Vt-6j-B8tOSAlBGMzSmqXQ99m70GPzJrxqFgcka5oK3OGg3LPfcHiO-GXpfKDU2PV5gMzlWREAx94I/s320/Screen%20Shot%202024-02-03%20at%2011.49.56%20AM.png" width="320" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">At low levels, the sinking and warming of the ridge aloft were enhanced by offshore-directed easterly flow forced by an approaching low-level trough (see below for around 5000 ft, 850 hPa).</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjA7jFovOGHnIOt5txp8Yr2_R4FZqn2vm_xZ6Cp2pVd5irM5z2w9hsH62G4hw029hdqD_iZoVQEcPv-W-yaeemnNlpP7Y3vfiXM4TlE00Sv0-7OPDPieqQlu28EsfFca8e9GIu-4MvPAlvL_pmA4JxmRnmKIdNCRYPyb7t19BYzDovX_3nrdINKQzJDUjc/s748/Screen%20Shot%202024-02-03%20at%2010.22.41%20AM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="748" height="347" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjA7jFovOGHnIOt5txp8Yr2_R4FZqn2vm_xZ6Cp2pVd5irM5z2w9hsH62G4hw029hdqD_iZoVQEcPv-W-yaeemnNlpP7Y3vfiXM4TlE00Sv0-7OPDPieqQlu28EsfFca8e9GIu-4MvPAlvL_pmA4JxmRnmKIdNCRYPyb7t19BYzDovX_3nrdINKQzJDUjc/w405-h347/Screen%20Shot%202024-02-03%20at%2010.22.41%20AM.png" width="405" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">In short, a lot of random pieces came together to create an unprecedented heat wave, with background global warming only contributing about 10% of the extreme heat.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><b>What about dry conditions before the heatwave?</b> Did dry soils play a major role? </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">We completed a paper exploring this issue (Conrick and Mass 2023). We ran two simulations of the event: one with actual (dry) soil moisture values and the other with normal/moister (or climatological values). The result is shown below. The modestly drier than normal conditions caused about 1.5C warming in eastern Washington and very little in western Washington. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">In short, previous dry conditions had only a small impact.</span></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyhpo-d4BhdoUso1IuklGr3TnhyBawl6kNITStjBbo_votp5EbyMzWgQ1PusuMyRfOugix9Ou_yBR7vFqkH6xpRnPgXMFuCvZZX0dqQbe0IMeGScK3ZQZwbweD-PnZjp7Ya5VtKK8zTweNPw3AMYiO1m1tPsu1G5VJiTurg3V_Ymm40pOdXFFyxAUaaP4/s640/Screen%20Shot%202024-02-03%20at%2010.20.17%20AM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="514" data-original-width="640" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyhpo-d4BhdoUso1IuklGr3TnhyBawl6kNITStjBbo_votp5EbyMzWgQ1PusuMyRfOugix9Ou_yBR7vFqkH6xpRnPgXMFuCvZZX0dqQbe0IMeGScK3ZQZwbweD-PnZjp7Ya5VtKK8zTweNPw3AMYiO1m1tPsu1G5VJiTurg3V_Ymm40pOdXFFyxAUaaP4/w383-h308/Screen%20Shot%202024-02-03%20at%2010.20.17%20AM.png" width="383" /></span></a></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Finally, our paper described the near-perfect forecasts of this record event, even 3-5 days before. Such forecast skill can greatly reduce the impacts and death tolls from extreme heatwaves.</span></div></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiglC-OwJiD0ypc-TxA3r9xwoTmuIieW_5n2lI6Vn3GidwydjNj9OaFxkTJ5DMQVENTfMgBtvuXvvWTfjtfht-DP08w2ZjCnV8OGwmIXyM2mw_4ncNxmb1N-IppnuabU6tkjh4Vm9L6p8YFeL3VTQShwQqViJAOVBrz5jV5_V-dCquSTTB_vMFaRN_wP-Q/s1266/Screen%20Shot%202024-02-03%20at%2010.07.44%20AM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="940" data-original-width="1266" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiglC-OwJiD0ypc-TxA3r9xwoTmuIieW_5n2lI6Vn3GidwydjNj9OaFxkTJ5DMQVENTfMgBtvuXvvWTfjtfht-DP08w2ZjCnV8OGwmIXyM2mw_4ncNxmb1N-IppnuabU6tkjh4Vm9L6p8YFeL3VTQShwQqViJAOVBrz5jV5_V-dCquSTTB_vMFaRN_wP-Q/s320/Screen%20Shot%202024-02-03%20at%2010.07.44%20AM.png" width="320" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Forecast temperature at Seattle from the NOAA GFS ensemble model, the red dot </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">shows the observed highs.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><b>In summary, the June 2021 heatwave was one of the most extreme such events in the observational record. Natural processes dominated, with multiple factors coming together in an optimal way.</b></span><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Not unlike thrown dice and all coming up sixes. Global warming contributed very modestly to this event: perhaps 10% of the warmth could be attributed to human greenhouse gas emissions. <b>Thus, much of the claims in the media (e.g., Seattle Times, Washington Post), by local politicians, and several advocacy groups of global warming dominance were scientifically inaccurate.<br /></b><br /></span><p><br /></p></div>Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.com30tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-89358680197867164142024-01-31T05:35:00.000-08:002024-01-31T05:35:43.580-08:00The Inner Secrets of An Impressive Pacific Storm<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">A very large, intense, and beautiful cyclone was off our shore yesterday afternoon (see below). Stretching over several thousand miles, this cyclone was associated with active weather fronts, very strong winds, and powerful vertical motions.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhouCQc7zJO3bTF5PTkolwz3Kq9YZW6bzfW0nC9Gk9cYqcH_ah78A3I8jVMz3H-l4zkw5j8A7Nbk_O5NR4ul3VDjimnNylzlgfcaTVFdJV0qbwEM1u6YGHUBN3g2CaAAvoGtAr030MjmcSR8OWccs2YAXZtIL6tMApc7pWpip3iqMRiaCSz9jErPDe-Y5I/s1134/202401302130_vis%20(1).gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="921" data-original-width="1134" height="330" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhouCQc7zJO3bTF5PTkolwz3Kq9YZW6bzfW0nC9Gk9cYqcH_ah78A3I8jVMz3H-l4zkw5j8A7Nbk_O5NR4ul3VDjimnNylzlgfcaTVFdJV0qbwEM1u6YGHUBN3g2CaAAvoGtAr030MjmcSR8OWccs2YAXZtIL6tMApc7pWpip3iqMRiaCSz9jErPDe-Y5I/w406-h330/202401302130_vis%20(1).gif" width="406" /></span></a></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>But there is a lot with such storms that can surprise the uninitiated. </b></span><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">For example, where are the strongest winds? If you said in the very center of the storm, where the lowest pressure is observed, you would be wrong. And there are many more surprises. </span></div><div><b><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></b></div><div><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Consider the winds.</span></b></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">Below is a short-term forecast map of sea level pressure and surface winds (below). The solid lines are isobars (lines of constant sea level pressure) and you can see an impressive low center of 968 hPa. That is quite low for this latitude.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">But now look at the wind speeds (sustained not gusts) shown by the color shading. The winds are actually quite weak in the center of the low, but very strong to the west and southwest (some winds over 55 knots).</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdOGy39zgzAQn4K_xJSRDUFugMM9HgqFS45Jl4CQ_RYOjHZ1mGSYTNN3GU6SX2hUl3_5d5NLCVEi20TIrpMXPKEpqLapgcdLFYQxKnhyDIM_816aTBZ3JCWg_CgIdYoOHu0dHkY0Zc41jJLHn3sGMsbR-GLwJFqDwBY54B17a9GJ4nczu06n7i0ny5C0I/s1548/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-31%20at%204.33.50%20AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1026" data-original-width="1548" height="343" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdOGy39zgzAQn4K_xJSRDUFugMM9HgqFS45Jl4CQ_RYOjHZ1mGSYTNN3GU6SX2hUl3_5d5NLCVEi20TIrpMXPKEpqLapgcdLFYQxKnhyDIM_816aTBZ3JCWg_CgIdYoOHu0dHkY0Zc41jJLHn3sGMsbR-GLwJFqDwBY54B17a9GJ4nczu06n7i0ny5C0I/w518-h343/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-31%20at%204.33.50%20AM.png" width="518" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div><span style="font-size: medium;">But why there? Why not where the pressure is lowest? </span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">Because winds are closely associated with pressure differences (horizontal pressure gradients) and those are greatest to the west and southwest of oceanic low centers.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">Below is a blow-up of the sea level pressures at the same time. Note the intense pressure differences to the southwest and west of the low center. These pressure differences or pressure gradients drive the strong winds. The pressure differences are weak in the center of the storm where the pressure is lowest.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrP8Ejal-K1i_s_gS3J_6jquyV3fYoqQZDx8j0_xhlRatp-nPU0bZQuZkouvuBT3nV-kCUUlqozMX3oajjc92915-vfp6Rnjrq0fxH0r0LX8rcLYkjX8wo_vXiJD7QNdjV38S7Ki4UM5wFw1e3SJR0i8NjhVZ1RgfVOvjY85bAk1VkKHhmSI0yK7DCOBQ/s836/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-31%20at%204.52.09%20AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="610" data-original-width="836" height="285" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrP8Ejal-K1i_s_gS3J_6jquyV3fYoqQZDx8j0_xhlRatp-nPU0bZQuZkouvuBT3nV-kCUUlqozMX3oajjc92915-vfp6Rnjrq0fxH0r0LX8rcLYkjX8wo_vXiJD7QNdjV38S7Ki4UM5wFw1e3SJR0i8NjhVZ1RgfVOvjY85bAk1VkKHhmSI0yK7DCOBQ/w391-h285/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-31%20at%204.52.09%20AM.png" width="391" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">I suspect I know your next question. <b>Why are the pressure differences largest to the southwest to west to northwest of the low center? </b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Good question. The answer has to do with temperature. Look again at the figure above. The color shading shows the temperature at around 800 meters above sea level (925 hPa pressure), with blue being the coldest and orange the warmest. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The low center is drawing in cold air from the north and warm air from the south. The greatest temperature contrasts are to the northwest and west of the low since this area has access to the primo cold air to the north. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Temperature contrasts produce pressure contrasts since warm air is less dense (heavy) than cold air.</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">Finally, where do you think the heaviest precipitation is found in such an intense storm? Near the lowest pressure? </span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">Nope. Below are the predicted 3-h precipitation totals at the same time as the maps above.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">Not much precipitation near the low center, but a LOT from the northeast to east to southeast.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">Why? Because that is where the strongest upward motion is found and upward motion is necessary to get precipitation. This is where moist air is forced to rise by the air motions associated with the storm. More on this in a future blog.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5WUTsqrV4rGM5_5g1Dlh2J6y8NBbombyg5I_KPjfodWjmlyOLZv-_G-wvWkwudsSZ0jchpAr_FcmvK5dSZgWSFlFYniATF9-bNdGEwJhlTODP36VPx9qrzaHkvGumIxGUrgCiL7ALnKoHHKseABMnVwPTgO7Fc-1dzNqz8OVEW15loNVMFmW3C-YHmM0/s1058/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-31%20at%205.26.15%20AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1004" data-original-width="1058" height="399" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5WUTsqrV4rGM5_5g1Dlh2J6y8NBbombyg5I_KPjfodWjmlyOLZv-_G-wvWkwudsSZ0jchpAr_FcmvK5dSZgWSFlFYniATF9-bNdGEwJhlTODP36VPx9qrzaHkvGumIxGUrgCiL7ALnKoHHKseABMnVwPTgO7Fc-1dzNqz8OVEW15loNVMFmW3C-YHmM0/w420-h399/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-31%20at%205.26.15%20AM.png" width="420" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div><span style="font-size: medium;">In summary, Pacific and midlatitude cyclones are very complex animals, ones we have only understood properly in recent years, mainly due to our ability to simulate their three-dimensional structures.</span></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /><p><br /></p></div>Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-90492333263496184532024-01-28T02:00:00.000-08:002024-01-28T02:00:00.255-08:00Water Vapor Fest over the Pacific Northwest<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The U.S. West Coast is experiencing a very wet period and this pluvial bounty is not ending soon.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Dramatically, measures of water vapor approaching our coast are impressive.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">To illustrate, consider the water vapor imagery from the NOAA GOES-West satellite on Saturday afternoon (see below).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">I rarely show such imagery on this blog and it is virtually never presented by the media. Where it is white, there is a lot of water vapor in the mid to upper troposphere (roughly 18,000 to 35,000 ft). The image below shows the entire West Coast engulfed in H2O. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKU4w4KJOiz3xLPPcaPdoHBafCB06Ek-0OxIyFd7n_ArxUsJcL19-6Nb9vFv16CbADLi00nRJ5bDkYnjSY4PO6MBs3FYMSQ-N1WqwG7xYGKuiEo7Rdjf2YyNt78UMWIa-oClueklnDNWQG3OXNjs5qyCKZtM4sz80KY4-OYIg9kLPeFL62lmoGouzEUZk/s1224/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-27%20at%204.40.59%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1094" data-original-width="1224" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKU4w4KJOiz3xLPPcaPdoHBafCB06Ek-0OxIyFd7n_ArxUsJcL19-6Nb9vFv16CbADLi00nRJ5bDkYnjSY4PO6MBs3FYMSQ-N1WqwG7xYGKuiEo7Rdjf2YyNt78UMWIa-oClueklnDNWQG3OXNjs5qyCKZtM4sz80KY4-OYIg9kLPeFL62lmoGouzEUZk/s320/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-27%20at%204.40.59%20PM.png" width="320" /></span></a></div><p></p><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Expect little change this week. Currents of water vapor, generally from the subtropics and tropics, are commonly called "atmospheric rivers" and several of them will be headed for the western U.S. this week. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">One of the best ways to identify a potent atmosphere river is to plot "water vapor transport", which is essentially the moisture (water vapor) content of the atmosphere times the associated wind speed. <b>Essentially a measure of how much water vapor is being moved about by the winds.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The predicted atmospheric river and associated water vapor transport this evening (Sunday) are impressive (blue colors), with the most potent influx of water into British Columbia.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMrvt_N2Qlkq_XxsUJxyq5CA2YRO1i-_dj2QoZQ7Ml-4DoUT5BIntID1uJ14WPtolBM-pVx-ZswKncu_m8CfU3mnFymiJhTSDef4A6_A7RprdLIFYFPMWvmTLoAfSWDM9SxK6QJxn_5wA3kdt5yQAA4QU0AGl6jjUBEiia48rhzss87nX73tt_6o3EHR0/s900/ivt.36.0000.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="900" height="494" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMrvt_N2Qlkq_XxsUJxyq5CA2YRO1i-_dj2QoZQ7Ml-4DoUT5BIntID1uJ14WPtolBM-pVx-ZswKncu_m8CfU3mnFymiJhTSDef4A6_A7RprdLIFYFPMWvmTLoAfSWDM9SxK6QJxn_5wA3kdt5yQAA4QU0AGl6jjUBEiia48rhzss87nX73tt_6o3EHR0/w494-h494/ivt.36.0000.gif" width="494" /></span></a></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">But if you REALLY want to be impressed, check out the atmosphere river prediction for Tuesday evening. Just wow. And this one is headed for northern California and the Pacific Northwest.</span></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEPn4SbEBkBHxE75wJzZpBC_EOWmDnM3Rd4WLf-qQXJabkAHSAmU5pdUlzjB5vdAgD2l4j2WLSKcJh5RzPJktafrPvA7xb84tyJJ0Tb_N59iZTfTf6C_W9z0hefG7EiDNHamACl21DY3qWs9qCjK46CDsdzCPHBlYlY7YDSscDev1_9aLMctVL2d8N-uM/s900/ivt.90.0000.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="900" height="467" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEPn4SbEBkBHxE75wJzZpBC_EOWmDnM3Rd4WLf-qQXJabkAHSAmU5pdUlzjB5vdAgD2l4j2WLSKcJh5RzPJktafrPvA7xb84tyJJ0Tb_N59iZTfTf6C_W9z0hefG7EiDNHamACl21DY3qWs9qCjK46CDsdzCPHBlYlY7YDSscDev1_9aLMctVL2d8N-uM/w467-h467/ivt.90.0000.gif" width="467" /></span></a></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The predicted 48-h precipitation totals ending Friday morning are impressive over northern California and British Columbia gets a big piece of it as well:</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikNBbZh8gl5CV0nnJ9-Z3zeXgjRuI7_ib28b-D9iMoOKi00OKclYJsyeVzWA31lKmoU70h6QfFF9hmgavXoqM3IScAAlumM42qX7duDEy9GPVUHpoEovGx1HoMROLTO4O1wErJftFzx-iYHuFbaeE0KzSu8zwQCoDqy0ICCwYc1a34lNnedUyPJav8QtE/s984/ecmwf-deterministic-nw-precip_48hr_inch-6832000.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="808" data-original-width="984" height="318" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikNBbZh8gl5CV0nnJ9-Z3zeXgjRuI7_ib28b-D9iMoOKi00OKclYJsyeVzWA31lKmoU70h6QfFF9hmgavXoqM3IScAAlumM42qX7duDEy9GPVUHpoEovGx1HoMROLTO4O1wErJftFzx-iYHuFbaeE0KzSu8zwQCoDqy0ICCwYc1a34lNnedUyPJav8QtE/w387-h318/ecmwf-deterministic-nw-precip_48hr_inch-6832000.png" width="387" /></span></a></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Many West Coast rivers will be running high. In fact, they are already running high with numerous NW rivers much above normal on Saturday (see below).</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjq6EsZ_JzxfHDNOZSOZV15MGx6QqRHJm8h8XkuybLwqUi4FVT3cKgmy2eldQPjAzwgg0O4g4N-LdDGUI_RFIUchuJSC5mYb3Kqn8ey3-Y-6JWXfvxE-X26Gpk7wehlQaKdPqEL0cYHpWi74q3Hpl-otmSigN-lREIpbzqXTsDuSdEjqDLbgQ4TavBY7k/s800/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-27%20at%205.04.27%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="752" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjq6EsZ_JzxfHDNOZSOZV15MGx6QqRHJm8h8XkuybLwqUi4FVT3cKgmy2eldQPjAzwgg0O4g4N-LdDGUI_RFIUchuJSC5mYb3Kqn8ey3-Y-6JWXfvxE-X26Gpk7wehlQaKdPqEL0cYHpWi74q3Hpl-otmSigN-lREIpbzqXTsDuSdEjqDLbgQ4TavBY7k/s320/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-27%20at%205.04.27%20PM.png" width="301" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNX761RDs1w9yVponMEEgz1M0HlGAJsyzWdnpu1pz6z6NQ4xtrGBVrbFyZys2LIEbzux9FHNaR7SU9jqT9pVhxnrjsTdumbylSqe1wR-DaUK6ZcP0v9v_jt1ii_cHNg0HpJkWEu9dbao2BQZZh_4yX1bogiI0LArJpw_gbdrUAFSCvK-bb_blSAI6NvLo/s836/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-27%20at%205.04.45%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="194" data-original-width="836" height="74" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNX761RDs1w9yVponMEEgz1M0HlGAJsyzWdnpu1pz6z6NQ4xtrGBVrbFyZys2LIEbzux9FHNaR7SU9jqT9pVhxnrjsTdumbylSqe1wR-DaUK6ZcP0v9v_jt1ii_cHNg0HpJkWEu9dbao2BQZZh_4yX1bogiI0LArJpw_gbdrUAFSCvK-bb_blSAI6NvLo/s320/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-27%20at%205.04.45%20PM.png" width="320" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Stay dry,</span></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><p><br /></p>Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-60707540563315718252024-01-26T11:55:00.000-08:002024-01-26T11:55:03.909-08:00Water Resources Looks Good Over the Western U.S.<p><span style="font-size: medium;"><b> The end of January -midway into the western U.S. water season--is a good time to evaluate potential water resources for the upcoming summer.</b></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">There had been some concern that an El Nino winter would result in drought conditions for some and flooding for others. Fortunately, such fears do not appear to be realized.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7rMi6_2TbIsF_2BKXJLu6O0ZYHVj7JhOLPFEB3zSEOXbrbaUCS2GVPLhMIwrKiLZTagO5Rw5nUnlJfJ_eHSgQD9QV9vwqGBxG8-tYmXuMdCz05SKzo_K-KV2K3erkmnOCX_iU4LYxA1xqZVrILeP6jTVFTLHEPocNIGS01pbn1GLe_RexEeWgO3k06uU/s1086/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-26%20at%207.25.37%20AM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="206" data-original-width="1086" height="86" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7rMi6_2TbIsF_2BKXJLu6O0ZYHVj7JhOLPFEB3zSEOXbrbaUCS2GVPLhMIwrKiLZTagO5Rw5nUnlJfJ_eHSgQD9QV9vwqGBxG8-tYmXuMdCz05SKzo_K-KV2K3erkmnOCX_iU4LYxA1xqZVrILeP6jTVFTLHEPocNIGS01pbn1GLe_RexEeWgO3k06uU/w452-h86/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-26%20at%207.25.37%20AM.png" width="452" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Let us begin by reviewing the all-important reservoir levels in California, whose low values two years ago were a cause of great concern.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">As shown below, California's reservoir levels are in excellent shape and generally well above normal. The largest and most important reservoirs (Shasta and Oroville) are at 121 and 131% of normal, respectively. Other reservoirs are also in good shape.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3h70mgFBbl1QLVr49oer8_OkfxFzsfiDYN0DYc-3Xx8GO_sNN7pvLP033-AlIKVkYQ7rrDxzx9_WsWbS2hKtaq__Es0sLG-Z4mCehnQqJDw-L_tVQo1Wp2nPAiTh3ASAbjYXiqqs-iwlkNCta4A16YHx7kxnxPD1ZRu3JQUi72eoeUcHvEMZAGRwDy70/s934/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-26%20at%207.12.12%20AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="934" data-original-width="748" height="591" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3h70mgFBbl1QLVr49oer8_OkfxFzsfiDYN0DYc-3Xx8GO_sNN7pvLP033-AlIKVkYQ7rrDxzx9_WsWbS2hKtaq__Es0sLG-Z4mCehnQqJDw-L_tVQo1Wp2nPAiTh3ASAbjYXiqqs-iwlkNCta4A16YHx7kxnxPD1ZRu3JQUi72eoeUcHvEMZAGRwDy70/w472-h591/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-26%20at%207.12.12%20AM.png" width="472" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br />Moving north, what about the water levels behind the all-important Grand Coulee Dam in Washington State? As shown below, water leves are above normal. Good for power generation and fish.</span><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTVviFs-X5jGSQjluzV6otb6xdAiPbzHeihZufEPcV8Wo9cjUI20hngyQcNC4thCjz32Jjt-_IjB3_8zmTre1d15dfvc_WlRnfxqLbmQ77Mnyv-YR_hyphenhyphenS5XNJget3QjvQYktMFwJpgr7XETk4J7N6HijjUdfFWiXZd_4Xqrp_LM3kf5JxBckAc5v7TOOI/s1782/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-26%20at%208.09.19%20AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="842" data-original-width="1782" height="203" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTVviFs-X5jGSQjluzV6otb6xdAiPbzHeihZufEPcV8Wo9cjUI20hngyQcNC4thCjz32Jjt-_IjB3_8zmTre1d15dfvc_WlRnfxqLbmQ77Mnyv-YR_hyphenhyphenS5XNJget3QjvQYktMFwJpgr7XETk4J7N6HijjUdfFWiXZd_4Xqrp_LM3kf5JxBckAc5v7TOOI/w430-h203/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-26%20at%208.09.19%20AM.png" width="430" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><b><br />Seattle's reservoir levels? </b> </span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">In December they had fallen substantially below normal, but four days ago (Jan 22, shown below) were just below normal. Recent rains have brought reservoir levels up to nearly normal. With the certainty of substantial rains during the next weeks and a near-normal snowpack for the relevant mountain drainages, Seattle should be in good shape waterwise for this summer.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8wDutKc5V7vv1vlsr-nQarvop59jIG5qR8BNPidTYwc01ZWVAycG085ZDoBBWooDk-LcO_26WOpZ1E6GJZcXlVpCESy775RM78uf_JRshq-sl-9oV5jH7oKwv8xwvvtGoAHC3v6ckd655yGP8Rhcr1aDQriYB8NMyMC0SVAO9Yx6FRbdYUKS9O_XooWs/s586/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-26%20at%208.12.25%20AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="342" data-original-width="586" height="257" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8wDutKc5V7vv1vlsr-nQarvop59jIG5qR8BNPidTYwc01ZWVAycG085ZDoBBWooDk-LcO_26WOpZ1E6GJZcXlVpCESy775RM78uf_JRshq-sl-9oV5jH7oKwv8xwvvtGoAHC3v6ckd655yGP8Rhcr1aDQriYB8NMyMC0SVAO9Yx6FRbdYUKS9O_XooWs/w440-h257/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-26%20at%208.12.25%20AM.png" width="440" /></span></a></div><b><span style="font-size: medium;">What about the current snowpack in the Northwest?</span></b><p></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Over Oregon (below), with the entire state averaging a bit over 100%.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7bc8YnfYOZxGWVgu0H1n4bHw_UvaK-sEvwXaFa2nHPBBOGr2yVyxl82raitwhZ13g6H_VdS4LeTPbmrVfrFqOq6lE8945t4hrhdvMjgOCFy8_tztHh7c_Yg9e6O3zXL3ExHiZcgmUkBreL3p6Sch97x7onZyqVwMiV7GsKjIjXtekd8RrHggG8z_KrwA/s1228/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-26%20at%207.10.43%20AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="892" data-original-width="1228" height="342" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7bc8YnfYOZxGWVgu0H1n4bHw_UvaK-sEvwXaFa2nHPBBOGr2yVyxl82raitwhZ13g6H_VdS4LeTPbmrVfrFqOq6lE8945t4hrhdvMjgOCFy8_tztHh7c_Yg9e6O3zXL3ExHiZcgmUkBreL3p6Sch97x7onZyqVwMiV7GsKjIjXtekd8RrHggG8z_KrwA/w471-h342/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-26%20at%207.10.43%20AM.png" width="471" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Washington (below) is currently a bit below normal, with the critical Cascade watersheds around 80%-- a far better situation than a month ago. The Yakima drainage is at 91%.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiE7Qx8RGHMat5AwjSdiaZs1ER4QVRouQSPaoMVI2luJPw0oLYaQFGNH15ul2hVqTHg7Uz7vdR4qunk-1FQcXuynojAXQvxK9AXG4knTRbaX7rFT5785sMvOBwJMlOFiR4ejUpr5YvP13L10XxkUcG5XwrOZPrM1SlhD2ea0yz9NZCFxUsCLSdzfUvbvio/s1324/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-26%20at%207.10.06%20AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="744" data-original-width="1324" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiE7Qx8RGHMat5AwjSdiaZs1ER4QVRouQSPaoMVI2luJPw0oLYaQFGNH15ul2hVqTHg7Uz7vdR4qunk-1FQcXuynojAXQvxK9AXG4knTRbaX7rFT5785sMvOBwJMlOFiR4ejUpr5YvP13L10XxkUcG5XwrOZPrM1SlhD2ea0yz9NZCFxUsCLSdzfUvbvio/w597-h336/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-26%20at%207.10.06%20AM.png" width="597" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The next week should be very wet along the West Coast. First, the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia will be hit by a series of moderate atmospheric rivers (see the European Center total precipitation forecast through Monday afternoon below.) </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjd-nUO3rVNtovsSC1V8NIiwehVTcY6pkRTmPZcURCzK_fo5EihLwn-D5GROg7pD12W-eH4G_vEwDCGIEHHPu43ew0qrjhUrUg_8eBNbPt5uN6r-lZ9uhI1NPX3Rw05uhb-LE2_R3UHNB6H3bm3TtJAO15fkd0yIY9hPW9B-NB4LldKNKIh4xIDw1QqXAE/s1022/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-26%20at%207.16.22%20AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1022" data-original-width="696" height="488" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjd-nUO3rVNtovsSC1V8NIiwehVTcY6pkRTmPZcURCzK_fo5EihLwn-D5GROg7pD12W-eH4G_vEwDCGIEHHPu43ew0qrjhUrUg_8eBNbPt5uN6r-lZ9uhI1NPX3Rw05uhb-LE2_R3UHNB6H3bm3TtJAO15fkd0yIY9hPW9B-NB4LldKNKIh4xIDw1QqXAE/w333-h488/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-26%20at%207.16.22%20AM.png" width="333" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">And then the atmospheric hose will move down into California, with the four-day total ending next Saturday being quite impressive from southern Oregon to Baja California.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinu3iHzkpl41WgU58kYldaUggB096TElMlF1qluc87bw1RcPAZyKt3EGOK4bZGBLhu4GjlXq6OJzinHq2fMsbNEHA6ETC7KOQYZ2jBnBD76zoQmB8gFS0FWfglIpHwC1UGFGXyNAb99h2UGVI4ICsURqirirpIO8bidFzblMN5nhzUwbOdPVrvfR-8kYQ/s1052/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-26%20at%207.17.54%20AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1052" data-original-width="742" height="473" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinu3iHzkpl41WgU58kYldaUggB096TElMlF1qluc87bw1RcPAZyKt3EGOK4bZGBLhu4GjlXq6OJzinHq2fMsbNEHA6ETC7KOQYZ2jBnBD76zoQmB8gFS0FWfglIpHwC1UGFGXyNAb99h2UGVI4ICsURqirirpIO8bidFzblMN5nhzUwbOdPVrvfR-8kYQ/w334-h473/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-26%20at%207.17.54%20AM.png" width="334" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">In short, the water situation for most of the West Coast looks relatively favorable in general. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">But that is not to say that there are some areas we are watching carefully. For example. the Yakima River storage is only about 60% of normal (see below). But with the Yakima drainage snowpack at 91% and lots of precipitation coming, one can be optimistic that the situation will improve.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_3DIy7K-c0U5eEszLFouu2nqMCBIS357Ib2P0K-XwuPyk7VqsBkfJUemxQUy1xl1gZ-1QokHth6mwF7PJsYcLZl8iQ7zMWPO5GPQPVM5IChI9mLpHRBRYto01QJ0klf5C-xxlDQbKrtVT8rxtWzaEuZ-pFJGDFDnkSF2Bv-UH9VeKCwEONNCzniTmfdE/s1098/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-26%20at%2011.46.11%20AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="886" data-original-width="1098" height="314" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_3DIy7K-c0U5eEszLFouu2nqMCBIS357Ib2P0K-XwuPyk7VqsBkfJUemxQUy1xl1gZ-1QokHth6mwF7PJsYcLZl8iQ7zMWPO5GPQPVM5IChI9mLpHRBRYto01QJ0klf5C-xxlDQbKrtVT8rxtWzaEuZ-pFJGDFDnkSF2Bv-UH9VeKCwEONNCzniTmfdE/w390-h314/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-26%20at%2011.46.11%20AM.png" width="390" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Yakima Reservoir Levels</span></div><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Finally, with El Nino starting to weaken rapidly, its impacts should begin to fade during the upcoming months.</span></p><p><br /></p>Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.com13