Air Quality Suffers with Northwest High Pressure and Skier's Hope

There has been a lot of  talk about the West Coast drought, particularly with its impacts on mountain snow pack and future water resources.

But the persistent high pressure over the eastern Pacific that has caused the drought is also having another effect:  creating low-level inversions and reducing air quality in many Northwest locations.   It has also made this a particularly foggy fall/early winter.

As an aside, one unfortunate side effect of  the persistent fog occurred on New Year's Eve with FogFireworks, where the upper portion of the display  at Seattle's SpaceNeedle was either invisible or muted for much of the performance.

 Picture courtesy of KING-5 TV Seattle

In December at Seattle-Tacoma Airport, 20 of the 31 days reported fog, many with dense fog. 16 days with fog in November   And who can forget Fogmageddon in October?   I can't tell you how many people have complained to me about the persistent low clouds this year.

The villain has been the persistent high pressure ridge over the eastern Pacific, like this one that occurred at 1 AM on January 1st (upper level, 500 hPa map shown).  You see how the height lines bulge northward?  That's the ridge.  At low levels this is associated with high pressure.

Ridges cause inversions and stable air in two ways.  First, strong sinking with high pressure aloft causes warming above the surface.  High pressure produces clear skies aloft that allows good radiational cooling at the surface.  And high pressure usually brings light winds, thus very little turbulent mixing of air at the surface.   Heat above, cool below, and don't mix....what do you get?

An inversion in which temperature increases with height! 

 Inversions are very stable situations that prevent air from mixing with height.   Pollutants concentrate over time near the surface and as air cools near the surface fog often forms.  This has been the story of much of our fall and early winter.

So what has the air pollution situation been around here?  The Puget Sound Clean Air Agency has a wonderful website where you can plot pollution data from around the state.  Let's take a look at the amount of small particulates (smaller than 2.5 microns, called PM2.5) at a few locations.  Such small particles are quite nasty, capable of being drawn deep into your lungs where they can lessen your respiratory capacity, initiate asthma attacks, or cause heart attacks.

Let's start with Lynnwood, north of Seattle.  The biggest spike of bad air:  July 4th!   You notice that air quality is far better during the summer than during the winter.  That makes sense;  no need for heating during the summer so less combustion byproducts.  And inversions or stable air situations are more frequent during the cooler season with the long nights that allow strong surface cooling.  But this fall was clearly particularly bad, worse than last fall/winter because of the persistent high pressure and inversions. (the previous year is also shown)

Going south to Lake Forecast Park, a location with a significant air quality issue, we see the same pattern, if not worse.  This fall the air quality has been particularly bad...not Beijing or Shanghai bad, but noticeable.

I could show you sites in Seattle, Tacoma, and elsewhere west of the Cascades but the story would be similar.

As long as we are talking about air quality, here is an interesting fact:  air quality varies substantially during the day.  To illustrate, here is a plot at Lynnwood for the last week or so.  Many days have an identifiable peak during the evening hours, a drop during the early morning hours, and a rise during the afternoon.

Makes sense.  Folks turn their heat down at night.  Warm the house for only a hour or so in the morning before heading to work or school.  Turn it up later in the afternoon or early evening.  Also meteorology helps such a pattern, with the atmosphere stabilizing during the late afternoon as the sun declines and the surface cools.  So try to do most of your breathing during the day.  Clearly, a better time for strenuous exercise if you worry about the quality of the air.

SKIERS REJOICE

      A major circulation change may produce substantial snow in the Cascades later this week:  here is the 72h snow totals ending 4 AM on Saturday.  Several FEET OF SNOW

Fracking and Ozone

UW Professor Becky Alexander has established a page on the Microoryza crowdfunding web site that outlines her project  to understand why natural gas fracking often leads to high ozone values over snow (go here to see it). If you want to learn more about this important project and how you can help it happen, check out the web site.  She is now at 52% and will get nothing if she doesn't reach 100%.  So if you know folks interested in the fracking issue, please let them know about this.

Seattle Public Schools Faces A Critical Decision on a New K-5 Math Curriculum

Most Seattle Public School students in the elementary grades have been forced to use a highly inferior math curriculum during the past several years:  Everyday Math (EM).   EM is a classic "discovery" math textbook that downplays (or ignores) the use of standard algorithms (like multiplication and division), includes lots of group work and writing, and does not provide enough practice for student's to achieve mastery..  It encourages a heavy use of calculators in early grades and does a poor job of preparing children for more advanced mathematics (see my previous blog for some documentation of this).  Some Seattle schools have gotten permission to use other mathematics curriculum and performance in these schools has greatly improved (see the same blog for information about this).  Everyday Math has damaged a generation of  Seattle School children.

But now the good news.   Resources are now available to replace Seattle's K-5 math textbooks and associated materials with something much better.  And if you are a Seattle resident, you can help ensure that a superior math program will be selected.

Here is the deal.  Seattle Public Schools has set up a web site (here) describing the math material selection process including access to the 8 contenders (here).  Seattle residents have until January 8th to provide input on their preferences by emailing or faxing a form found here.   You can also look at the books in person and submit forms at the Seattle Public Schools office (John Stanford Center) in Seattle. If you are the parent of a child in Seattle Public Schools, will be a parent in SPS, or believe good math is critical for the future of our city and nation, please express you opinions by sending in the form by January 8th.

These recommendations will go to a curriculum review committee comprised of teachers, staff, parents and community members for narrowing down the list to three.

Which are best math books?

I have looked at all these books, as have math experts in the Seattle Math Coalition and Wheresthemath.com.   The bottom line is that there are only two viable selections in the list of 8:

Jump Math

and

Math In Focus.

Let's talk about what we want in a math curriculum:

• A curriculum that will ensure all students gain a mastery of key algorithms and concepts.
• A curriculum that allows parents to help their child.
• A curriculum that allows kids to be creative with math once they have the basic skills.
• A curriculum that is accessible to all kids, including children for which English is not their primary language.
• A curriculum that allows teachers that are weak in math to still ensure solid learning amount in their classrooms.
• A curriculum that prepares students to move on to more advanced mathematics in middle and high schools.

Both Jump Math and Math in Focus do this.  I believe Jump Math is the best choice, but Math in Focus (the Americanized version of Singapore Math) would be fine.

Let's talk a bit more about Jump Math.


   Developed in Canada by John Mighton, (Ph.D., mathematics), JUMP math uses an incremental approach that explicitly takes the student through every single step in the thought process.  That is crucial...most math textbooks/workbook leave out steps, leading to confusion.  Not JUMP MATH. The content is rich, deep, and contains considerably more mathematical insight than the other programs.  The NY Times did a story on JUMP MATH that was very positive.  JUMP MATH is also inexpensive, without the often extraneous color images and photos in the more expensive books.  Perhaps Seattle could save enough money to replace the terrible books Seattle is using in middle school (CMP).

Math in Focus

 Math in Focus is the Americanized version of the highly acclaimed and very effective Singapore Math program (Singapore students have some of the best math performance in the world). 

Reasonably clear exposition of elementary math in a solid, well-designed package.  Highline Schools adopted Math in Focus a few years ago, with substantial improvements in standardized math tests.  A NY Times story on Singapore Math, including its MIF version, is very positive, with parents suggesting it to be far superior to Everyday Math.

If you are a Seattle resident, please take a look at the materials and let the curriculum committee know what you prefer.  We don't want another generation of Seattle Public School students receiving a crippling math education.  It would be a tragedy if a weak math curriculum is selected again.  And completely unneccessary.