December 09, 2009

Snow?

I get the feeling a lot of you want a big snowstorm. I think the Mayor and the Seattle DOT also want it, if only to prove they can get it right this time. (By the way, I have been really impressed with the proactive treatment by SDOT using brine solution on steep roadways---they are clearly trying--and it does help).

Is it possible we will see snow? Yes. Is a major snowstorm in the lowlands probable? Not at this time. Is there a lot of uncertainty? Yes. Will we get warmer by mid-week? Probably yes. Will there be lots of snow in the mountain and eastern WA? Almost certainly yes. Will plumbers make a lot of money when the temperatures warm up and frozen pipes start leaking. A certainty.

Another cold night in store. And another sunny day tomorrow (Thursday).
Friday will be slightly warmer with some increasing high clouds.

Sunday a weak disturbance will move through and we will get some light snow in the mountains and some light snow showers scattered around the lowlands. The only real lowland accumulation could be in a Puget Sound convergence zone north of Seattle and south or over Everett...but that is not certain. See 24h snowfall ending 4 AM Monday below.


Sunday will be generally dry and a bit warmer.

The fun is late Monday/Tuesday. An approaching warm front will bring precipitation into our area...but it probably will warm things up enough to start most of the lowlands as rain--but some locations may see some snowflakes before it turns over. (graphic for 4 AM Tuesday below--green and yellow are warmer air)But if the system came in a little more to our south (as this morning's runs), it could draw in cold air and the event could start as snow. Finally, it all turns into warm rain.

The models have really been all over the place, so my confidence in the Monday/Tuesday situation is not great...this is my best shot at it. Above is the 24-h snowfall ending 4PM on Tuesday...lots of snow over the mts. and eastern WA. Not much over the lowlands...sorry.
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16 comments:

  1. JewelyaZDecember 9, 2009 at 9:56 PM

    I'm not sorry that it doesn't look like snow. We always get some every winter and I'm in no hurry to have it.

    Thanks for being clear about the uncertainty. It's so helpful!

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  2. KassraDecember 9, 2009 at 10:28 PM

    any snow in bothell? how much. thanks cliff

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  3. Norman Petersen Decorative FinishesDecember 9, 2009 at 11:29 PM

    I just found your blog. Awesome. So cool that we have a true wizard in this weird weather wonderland and that you share your insights so openly.

    Thank you.

    N.

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  4. CarlDecember 10, 2009 at 6:19 AM

    I had enough snow last year to hold me over for a few more. Not everyone wants snow, especially those of us who have to drive to work in it.

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  5. Diary of a cat householdDecember 10, 2009 at 7:32 AM

    well we can just hope for warmer temps and hot water.

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  6. epjmcginleyDecember 10, 2009 at 8:04 AM

    single digits in olympia three nights running, that is damn cold.

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  7. AnonymousDecember 10, 2009 at 8:32 AM

    I would LOVE a little snow!

    ...before I head off to Mexico for a month, heh heh!

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  8. TedDecember 10, 2009 at 9:25 AM

    I'm an east coast transplant that's lived in Western WA for 11 years now. And a big fan of a good snowfall. Last year was the first time I left the PNW for the winter since I moved here. I was heart broken to see a truly good snowfall that I was unable to enjoy. I understand the troubles it brought with it, but I wouldn't mind getting a little snow output after having put up with this chilly weather for a week or more.

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  9. CCDecember 10, 2009 at 10:05 AM

    Looks like you've got 6-8" in central cascades for sunday. NWAC has "occasional light snow." Given previous relative performance on mt. snow predictions I'll have to go with NWAC. We'll see.

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  10. MikeDecember 10, 2009 at 10:07 AM

    I'm sitting in the Columbia Center downtown, looking over Elliott Bay, and can see a nasty layer of pollution out there. When will the pressure lift and this bad air clear out?

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  11. UnknownDecember 10, 2009 at 2:41 PM

    Portland NWS just issued a Winter Storm Watch for tomorrow afternoon through Saturday for SW Washington and PDX area.

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  12. Cliff Mass Weather BlogDecember 10, 2009 at 3:27 PM

    Portland did the right thing...much more of a threat this weekend over western Oregon and south of Longview... more later....cliff

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  13. JoshDecember 10, 2009 at 4:44 PM

    NW Interior is a good bet. I wouldn't put it all on black (or should I say white) but things could get interesting up here on Sunday. Models look like a spaghetti feast at the Corleone's right now though. Public utilities should keep a weather eye.....

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  14. rpanglissDecember 10, 2009 at 6:04 PM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

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  15. rpanglissDecember 10, 2009 at 6:11 PM

    I see in the probcast that my area of interest (just e. of Snoqualmie Pass) has a possible extreme amount of precip of ~0.11in on Sat. How does this translate to inches of snow? Some guidance would help me decide whether I need to wax my skate skis to use on Sunday.

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  16. herrbrahmsDecember 10, 2009 at 8:57 PM

    I've seen snow every day this week.....on the Brothers and Mt. Constance where it belongs. If you folks really want snow, take a drive up to Alpental and get your fill.

    Having to use chains in the U District last year was a crazy scene that I don't care to repeat anytime soon.

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