May 17, 2010

Storm Update

The new run is in and the forecast is basically the same as this morning. Thus, it is looking increasingly likely that a good windstorm is coming to the coast and NW Washington-an unusually strong one for this time of the year.

Here is the latest forecast from the UW high-resolution forecasting system for 8 PM Wednesday. An intense pressure gradient is evident from SE to SW of the low center. The coast will get hit hard.


How hard? Here are the surface winds for Wednesday afternoon and evening. Pink color is SUSTAINED 40 kt winds! In the afternoon, there are blacks offshore-- 45 kt sustained! And the gusts could be much greater (55-65 kts).


Away from the coast, strong SE winds will buffet NW Washington...here are some graphics for you to view for 8 and 11 PM on Wednesday night. 30-40 kt sustained winds near the water. Plus higher gusts.


Now, nothing is certain and we need to watch tomorrow's model runs, but at this time it really looks like a strong blow on the coast and NW Washington. And there will be substantial rain with the associated frontal system. Good for the plants. Hopefully my tomatoes will survive--I planted them last weekend.
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6 comments:

  1. UnknownMay 17, 2010 at 10:15 PM

    Intense but thanks for the update/analysis. Have a bunch of plants yet to get into the ground that I may need to secure so they don't get toppled.

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  2. smokejumperMay 17, 2010 at 10:22 PM

    One thing I quickly notice is the how quickly the winds die down off the topography of the land.

    Also, asked earlier, but it is May and coming in in the afternoon. Will it be a cool advection stable type rain or a squally type line of convection??

    Maybe not unstable vertically, but horizontally, temp change of 76 to 50 in 3 hrs is quite dynamic.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Ryan & JenMay 18, 2010 at 8:01 AM

    First, We love the blog. Second what does the backside of this storm look like? Are the winds going to lay down on thursday? We are supposed to be fishing La Push Thurs-Sat this week.

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  4. JoshMay 18, 2010 at 1:17 PM

    I am going with climo. I am putting Bellingham just short of wind advisory criteria through the event. We will see

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  5. ChristopherMay 18, 2010 at 6:03 PM

    What is causing this rash of exceptionally strong spring sto

    ReplyDelete
  6. JackMMay 18, 2010 at 7:13 PM

    thanks for the heads-up Cliff. good time to check the electric generator before the summer begins. it is kinda late in the season for a wind storm, and did anyone notice but almost 90 degrees in north central Montana today.

    ReplyDelete

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