Thing are really getting interesting now. See the surface chart above at 2 PM. The low center is MUCH stronger than the model's predicted. Around 999 mb and is now located over the Olympic Peninsula...as a result southwesterly winds are picking up in the south Sound and the northerlies are strengthening to the north. The collided airstreams are causing enhanced vertical motion and precipitation. Look at the radar...a line of very heavy reflectivities...and snow intensities has formed south of Seattle. Strong northerly flow is now striking the northern portion of the Olympic Peninsula and very heavy snow is falling on its northern side (6-10 inches so far in some places!!!!)
The show is not over yet.
Here is a neat time-lapse of snow in Silverdale. Looking west across Hood Canal
http://www.drdale.com/lapse/lapse101122.mov
Courtesy of Dale Ireland
What direction is this snow headed? Is it going south?
ReplyDeleteI have just discovered your blog and I love it! Thanks so much for all the supercool info. I have been reading all your posts to my husband in an overly dramatic snow-loving voice.
ReplyDeleteI'm on Bangor Sub Base near Silverdale and as of about 3pm we've got about 4 inches of snow and it's still snowing. The roads are a mess over here, the max speed on 3 between Poulsbo and Silverdale at around 2pm was about 25mph.
Winds howling up here in Bellingham
ReplyDeletegust to 55 just south of the Hospital, blowing ground snow, power outages, trees down. Feels like the north slope.
Looks like some interesting developments in the eastern part of the state too. Tri-cities is getting a good deal of snow (rare for November) and looks to be giving the probabilistic guidance a hard time.
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think about snow in the Seattle area? Should we expect heavy snow accumulation here?
ReplyDeleteI wonder if we're going to get the usual pineapple express as the next system leading to a repeat of the election day flooding of 4 years ago?
ReplyDeleteFrom yesterday's How much snow? post
ReplyDelete"Bottom line...NO ACCUMULATING SNOW in Seattle, but white stuff over SW Washington and Oregon."
Cliff, I love ya man, but you're killin' me here. Seriously?
Keep those comments coming, Cliff.
ReplyDeleteAll these changes make it really hard for those of us who have to decide what to do about holding or canceling school (or other events, I suppose, too).
Got a question for you, Cliff. After your blog, where is the best place to look for the most accurate forecasts for this area?
It is snailing(snow+hail) here in Maple Valley, and just got dark as heck.
ReplyDeleteStrange times....
Now I know why #snOMG is a popular hashtag on Twitter right now. What a mess! And this could be just the beginning.
ReplyDeleteCliff,
ReplyDeleteThis morning we received word from a NWS weather briefing in Thurston County of a pretty significant storm coming and started making preparations at work. They had said it would hit around 3 with fairly strong winds, 2-5" of snow, and temperatures plummeting.
So far none of this has happened. We've had some snow flurries, but temps have stayed in the 34-35 degree range and no wind. Has the low's path now changed or can we still expect this just later than expected in the South Sound? Trying to decide if we can let our guard down or if we need to still prepare for worse weather later in the evening.
@patrick, if you were looking at the models that are available yesterday that was what they were saying. The NWS deviated from those, as Cliff noted earlier today, when they issued the Winter Weather Advisory for 1-3 inches in the lowlands. If the models had verified that would have been an overshot on their part.
ReplyDeleteIf Cliff or anyone else had said 3-5 inches, and the models had verified (i.e. no snow) someone would be griping about the error in that direction.
I'm not trying to give you a hard time but...
Bottom line: If the upcoming weather is very important for you (pilots, boat captains, etc.) you learn some basic meteorology and then look at surface observations, models, observable conditions in your area, historic weather patterns, etc and plan for all possibilities.
At an altitude of 125 feet near the Southern end of Marrowstone Island we have 4 1/4" accumulation of "convergence zone". Coastal radar or no coastal radar, you are starting to sound like a TV weatherman making excuses. Cliff, we expect better from you.
ReplyDeleteLooking out the window this morning was the most accurate forecast I got. Too bad I left the cabin before it really started dumping. I had to wait for half a dozen cars to get towed before I could creep home with all four tires chained up.
Glenn
Cliff,On south side of Port Angeles snow cover is 12-14 inches now. I'm retired and have shoveled 3 times today and there's still a bit coming down. Appreciate your more data rich interpretations than the TV-newscasts.
ReplyDeleteCliff,
ReplyDeleteLove your blog! I started visiting your blog during the fun of 2008. I have since moved to Portland and was really excited to hear the forecast for snow down here but it looks like that has changed just a little bit, with the landfall of that low as far north as it did it looks like it will stay too warm for us to see snow, though we will probably have lots of ice around tomorrow. Keep up the good work.
Very nasty in Port Townsend. Wind out of NE whipping up the accumulated snow (6"(?)).
ReplyDeleteCliff- I'm seeing lightning over the Sound tonight. Why?
ReplyDelete@ rougedelux
ReplyDeleteThat's thundersnow and it's awesome. I first experienced it in the 2008 storm while living in the Renton Highlands.
Oh Crikey this is NOT looking good for a trip to Neah Bay on Wednesday
ReplyDeleteLove the time lapse a touch of humor
Who is the bobblehead, I am not up on my players
Wow...blizzard and dumping in Enumclaw!!!! At least 8 inches!!!! And still com in down!!!! I love the snow!!!! BRING IT!
ReplyDeleteIt took me 3 hours to drive home today. I drove from Oak Harbor to Mount Vernon, and the road was stop-and-crawl. I considered turning back around and sleeping at work, or the possibility of being stranding in my car overnight. It was the worst weather-related driving experience I have ever faced.
ReplyDeleteI thought the snow would stay south of us but it clearly didn't! Yuck!
My Dad spoke with me over the phone at around 6pm. He is stuck at his office in Bremerton, too much traffic and stuck cars to get out(he tried, and gave up to go back to his office). His house is in Port Orchard and they lost power earlier this afternoon, it's still out. He said with the wind and snow mix it's like a blizzard with snow drifts etc.
ReplyDeleteNot much snow on the ground here on Lake Stevens as of now, but it's coming down hard (maybe 1.5 inhces so far, but LOTS of ice). Cars are stuck EVERYWHERE. Honestly, this is the worst driving conditions around here I've ever experienced thanks to the ice.
Stay safe and warm everyone! I read the snoqualmie pass was closed at around 6pm too, not sure if open yet though.
4 inches here in Seattle, with alot more coming down!
ReplyDeleteWhat will conditions be like tomorrow? What should we anticipate the roads being like tomorrow in Seattle? Should I count out going to work or is it a possibility everything will be cleared off by then?
ReplyDeleteOh my goodness, the Everett area, after missing out most of the day, is getting some HEAVY snow. My .5 inch of snow is easily at 2 inches over the past 90 to 120 minutes. From the radar, it looks like the low is nearly stationary, with very, very slow movement. Some of the shower bands are very intense. Looks like this could stick around for the next few hours. Geez, I'd have 4-5 inches during the closing hours of the storm if that's the case! ;)
ReplyDeleteIt is really starting to blow on Alki! Winds must be 20-25 with gusts to maybe 35-40
ReplyDelete8" here in Kingston, heavy gusts blowing snow everywhere, and still snowing strongly at 9:30PM. Power is staying on amazingly though we've had occasional blinks. Am looking forward to the blinding sun tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteAmazing to think that 3 weeks ago this Wednesday we hit a high of 74F here!
Great to read how some commenters want to compare our reaction to snow with other regions, other flat regions like the midwest. I guess it's easy to forget how flat the midwest is??? huh??? Snow and hills mix so well with cars.
ReplyDeleteGreat to read about those who knew an event was coming, may have had a choice to leave early, but said I will wait. Like an earthquake everyone knew was coming that would make highways impassable, and deciding to wait to leave work until after the quake. Yes, be sure to not leave to get where ever you need to be until after the event. blah. Some sort of thrill seeker thing or something?
ReplyDeleteIf we're recording, just shy of 3" in W. Shoreline from yesterday's snow.
ReplyDelete