January 11, 2011

Nowcast at 4 PM

I really wish I had the coastal radar right now, it would have been a huge help to determine exactly what is going on and what will happen over the next few hours. September we will have it.

It looks like the rush hour will NOT be seriously impacted by snow. At 4 PM, it is snowing at Quillayute and Astoria, with only very light snow flurries over some locations in western Washington interior. The snow falling out of the cloud deck is light and most of it is sublimating before it reaches the surface. Strong easterly flow is really evaporating the moisture over Seattle and eastern suburbs (see radar). This will provide considerable protection from accumulating snow.

The radar is still in clear air mode and the intensities are very light. It is not even snowing at Hoquiam....a key upwind station from Seattle. It has started to snow at Westport, so it is starting to move in slowly. No snow reports over western Washington away from the coast except for northern Orcas Is.

Bottom line: you don't have to rush anywhere if you are living in western Washington outside of the far northern sections. No imminent significant snow for next two hours in the central interior (ie Puget Sound). The satellite suggests a more intense band offshore that would come in during the evening...but can't be sure. At the same time it is warming aloft as we speak. Stay at work. Enjoy happy hour. WSDOT doesn't need to be concerned about a rush-hour mess. At this point the high-res models seem to be doing well here.

This nowcast can be interactive....if you experience significant snow, leave a brief comment.
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59 comments:

  1. AnonymousJanuary 11, 2011 at 4:15 PM

    No snow in Issaquah - and I'm guessing it's just going to rain.

    Thanks for the nowcast. Great.

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  2. rainrunnerJanuary 11, 2011 at 4:16 PM

    I feel so let down :(

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  3. UnknownJanuary 11, 2011 at 4:18 PM

    Exactly the right information at the right time; thanks so much, Cliff!

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  4. ChristopherJanuary 11, 2011 at 4:19 PM

    4:20. Radar shows a large mass of green over the San Juans and lower Vancouver Island, but I just stepped out (west side of San Juan Island) and nothing is reaching the ground in any form. Outside temp 37.6.

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  5. UnknownJanuary 11, 2011 at 4:19 PM

    Updated forecast calls for 21-27 inches at Baker overnight?! Here's to hoping that actually happens!

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  6. MichaelJanuary 11, 2011 at 4:22 PM

    Cliff

    At present on Orcas Island, we have light snow falling, perhaps 1/8 to 1/4 accumulation.

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  7. ScrapycandyJanuary 11, 2011 at 4:25 PM

    Thank you...I'll let my husband know.

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  8. UnknownJanuary 11, 2011 at 4:28 PM

    Cliff:
    Long Beach is reporting light rain and 33 degree with calm wind at 4;18P

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  9. cgtJanuary 11, 2011 at 4:29 PM

    Nothing happening here in Bellingham as of 4:30pm. Calm wind, temperature 33. 1.5'' of snow on ground from last week.

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  10. C&AJanuary 11, 2011 at 4:29 PM

    No snow in Mt Vernon. I left work early but I don't think I needed to - it hasn't snowed yet up here.

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  11. PaulJanuary 11, 2011 at 4:30 PM

    Very helpful. Thanks for your work.

    Paul Middents

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  12. Kenna WickmanJanuary 11, 2011 at 4:33 PM

    When they refer to the "Hood Canal Area" - does that include all of Kitsap County? Or mostly near Seabeck down to Shelton (which isn't on Hood Canal actually)?

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  13. CapiletJanuary 11, 2011 at 4:35 PM

    It is just cold in Factoria(South Bellevue), no precipitation I can see from the office. Will add notes about Sammammish when I get home in an hour or so.

    Thank you so much for the nowcast!

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  14. RootmachineJanuary 11, 2011 at 4:37 PM

    Snow moving across Bellingham Bay. Starting to snow in Fairhaven

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  15. Steve AllwineJanuary 11, 2011 at 4:44 PM

    Tukwila - 4:40pm. Zero precipitation, 38.3 degrees.

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  16. UnknownJanuary 11, 2011 at 4:50 PM

    Light snow just beginning to fall to the east of shelton at 4:50

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  17. bruceJanuary 11, 2011 at 4:50 PM

    Its snowing in Bellingham now @ 4:40

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  18. bruceJanuary 11, 2011 at 4:51 PM

    Its snowing in Bellingham as of 4:40 PM

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  19. UnknownJanuary 11, 2011 at 4:51 PM

    I was wondering how many variables such as winds aloft, surface temperatures, etc. are entered into the models and what sort of computer computations are used in the different modeling runs for this type of event.

    Thank you for great learning opportunity.

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  20. joe breskinJanuary 11, 2011 at 4:52 PM

    Thanks. This is totally cool. About 15 years ago I tried to get a system built to use rural highschool kids and touchtone phones (and geolocated rainguages) to enter weather data for a year or two and thus create a really accurate and detailed local weather map. Teachers unfortunately directed the money into something that left nothing useful (except maybe something the kids remember). But we could do something akin to that so easily now, using googleearth ...

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  21. bruceJanuary 11, 2011 at 4:52 PM

    Now snowing in Bellingham

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  22. AnonymousJanuary 11, 2011 at 4:52 PM

    There is light snow in Bellingham, started about 1/2 hour ago.

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  23. SkunkBayWeatherJanuary 11, 2011 at 4:56 PM

    Temperature has dropped from 38 to 35 in the last couple of hours here in Hansville (North Kitsap). Cliff, your UofW probability forecast had us predicted with a high of 38 and low of 33. At this rate, it looks like you nailed it. No snow yet, but it sure feels like it. I do have a low light resolution (cheap) webcam on my site (www.SkunkBayWeather.com) that is backlit. It shows snow fairly well in the dark, for those interested.

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  24. UnknownJanuary 11, 2011 at 4:58 PM

    light snow olympia started about 4:30

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  25. UnknownJanuary 11, 2011 at 4:59 PM

    Snow has really picked up in shelton

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  26. cornbreadJanuary 11, 2011 at 5:02 PM

    Light fine snow in Bellingham started about 4:30.

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  27. scepter1January 11, 2011 at 5:16 PM

    Snowing lightly on western Harstine Island.

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  28. scepter1January 11, 2011 at 5:19 PM

    Light snow on western Harstine Island (Mason county.)

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  29. TammyJanuary 11, 2011 at 5:20 PM

    Hey Cliff, it's been snowing in North Hoquiam since 2:30 this afternoon, starting to stick this past hour. I just went out & took this picture for you.
    http://twitpic.com/3p82z8

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  30. RoseJanuary 11, 2011 at 5:27 PM

    It's 5:36 and I'm at Greenlake. I don't even think the temp is below 40, if so, not much below. I seriously doubt there will be snow around here.

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  31. UnknownJanuary 11, 2011 at 5:28 PM

    Nothing on Beacon Hill at 1730... no snow... no restaurants, no entertainment :)

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  32. SabineJanuary 11, 2011 at 5:32 PM

    It's just started to snow lightly in Bellingham.
    Nowcast is a great idea!

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  33. ChrisJanuary 11, 2011 at 5:34 PM

    this is great info, although I am SO disappointed we are not having a major weather event, I do so love the inane 'live at 5' on the spot weather news.

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  34. UnknownJanuary 11, 2011 at 5:35 PM

    Just starting to lightly snow in (west) Port Orchard.

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  35. runway12January 11, 2011 at 5:37 PM

    Light snow now in Ruston(Tacoma). Also a big shift in the wind from east to southwest.

    Great idea on the nowcast Cliff.

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  36. Ian BarclayJanuary 11, 2011 at 5:46 PM

    Still nary a flake here in Sequim, but that's really no surprise.

    Stuff appears to be happening in the Portland area.

    Kenna, 'Hood Canal area' varies according to each storm (intensity/track/moisture). Seabeck and Brinnon down to Hoodsport is the most prone to snow but it can also reach down to Shelton and up to Poulsbo and sometimes Bremerton. In the winter of 2006-07 we had accumulating snow of 1" or more 10 times on a high ridgetop west of Poulsbo where I was keeping some plants.

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  37. LADunkinJanuary 11, 2011 at 5:54 PM

    I started mapping the snow sightings based on the comments here. Feel free to add to the map as more snow sightings come in.

    http://tinyurl.com/4jx38zc

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  38. Mr. BatesJanuary 11, 2011 at 5:57 PM

    Thanks for keeping us updated in Redmond. I work in North Bend and it was bitterly cold there today as the winds took the temperatures down sharply. I hope my son's new worm bin survives the rain and wind of the next 24 hours.

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  39. WillJanuary 11, 2011 at 6:01 PM

    No snow in Bellingham (I'm near Whatcom CC).. a few flurries but nothing yet.

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  40. AndrewJanuary 11, 2011 at 6:19 PM

    Snowing 'like a blizzard' in Forks!

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  41. migJanuary 11, 2011 at 6:24 PM

    It's snowing and 36 degrees in Tacoma's North Slope neighborhood.

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  42. GawdgerJanuary 11, 2011 at 6:40 PM

    6:35 Snow is starting in West Seattle (Arbor Heights). Avg flake size and low moisture content.

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  43. D ZeusJanuary 11, 2011 at 6:50 PM

    Just started snowing in Port Angeles (Central Strait of Juan De Fuca), 6 pm. Roads are frozen so it's sticking. Temp at my house (400 feet elevation) is 29 degrees. I love snow!

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  44. UnknownJanuary 11, 2011 at 6:55 PM

    Light snow on Capitol Hill in Seattle.

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  45. Leif JacksonJanuary 11, 2011 at 6:59 PM

    Weird how the doppler radar has shown my area (Ballard) get taken over by green, then pink, then blue. But I have not seen flake number one.

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  46. AnonymousJanuary 11, 2011 at 7:01 PM

    have comments been turned off? bummer! Thanks for the informative posts though...

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  47. GentianJanuary 11, 2011 at 7:09 PM

    snowing in Port Townsend at 7 pm

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  48. SilentSevenJanuary 11, 2011 at 7:12 PM

    Flurries starting now in South Bellevue near Bellevue Community College.

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  49. John VanLeerJanuary 11, 2011 at 7:16 PM

    7:13 PM: First flurries in Lake City (N. Seattle).

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  50. John VanLeerJanuary 11, 2011 at 7:16 PM

    7:13 PM: First flurries in Lake City (N. Seattle).

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  51. John VanLeerJanuary 11, 2011 at 7:17 PM

    7:13 PM: First flurries in Lake City (N. Seattle).

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  52. UnknownJanuary 11, 2011 at 7:29 PM

    Wind picking up here in Sammamish at 7:00pm S/SE 5-8 mph. No precip and temps around 35F.
    'NowCast' on snow/ice event days ... brilliant! Now we just need the mobile app ...

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  53. UnknownJanuary 11, 2011 at 7:45 PM

    Sideways snow recently started due to the almost ever present winter winds here in Maple Valley.

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  54. Ken PJanuary 11, 2011 at 8:51 PM

    Moderate snow in downtown Kirkland, just a few blocks from Lake Washington.

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  55. AnonymousJanuary 11, 2011 at 9:08 PM

    snowing in edmonds started about 830

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  56. UnknownJanuary 11, 2011 at 9:32 PM

    Still moderate to at times heavy snow in shelton

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  57. MichaelJanuary 11, 2011 at 9:44 PM

    1-2 inches in Bryant. Great snowball material! If it wasn't so late, I'd have the kids out making a snowman

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  58. David CuthbertJanuary 11, 2011 at 10:32 PM

    Regarding that coastal radar: After it's installed, can you show us comparison pictures of the radar imagery with and without it during a similar event this fall? (That is, what we get today vs. today's radar merged with the coastal radar.) It'd be neat to see how much help it is firsthand.

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  59. UnknownJanuary 12, 2011 at 1:53 AM

    It's 1:45 am and now the snow is so wet it's hardly snow. And not much quantity. Over here just east of I-5 across from the U-District, I have just measured an even 4 inches on my back deck. Bonne nuit.

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