December 17, 2013

Friday Morning Snow Increasingly Likely

 Detailed Update at 9:15 PM Wed night--will be a separate post.

This will be brief.   Models are still suggesting that there will be extensive lowland snow on Friday morning, between roughly 1-2 AM and 10 AM.  After that the temperatures will warm, with snow transitioning to rain by the early afternoon.   Here is the snow total from the UW WRF model for the 24h ending 4PM Friday.

The Cascades will get over a foot in places and snow will be extend into NW Washington and over Seattle and its eastern suburbs.  Substantial increases from Seattle to Bellevue.  The commute on Friday morning could well be problematic for many, so be prepared for it.

I will have an update Wednesday evening, where I will describe the nature of this kind of snow event.


Thank You.  

I wanted to express my appreciation to all of you that contributed to my weather research fund at the University of Washington.  During the next year I will use the support to hire some undergraduates to work on local research projects and to help maintain the numerical weather prediction system I show in this blog and use as a major tool for local weather research.

 This guy is getting ready for action.
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10 comments:

  1. S.M.WestDecember 17, 2013 at 11:09 PM

    This could go one of three ways: 1.It could happen as the models predict. 2. It will just rain and we can laugh at people in wet yellow jackets reporting that there's no snow. 3. It will be a massive snowstorm. The weather likes to throw in a last minute curve ball. My advice is if you wake up to a mound of snow where your car used to be, just stay home.

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  2. UnknownDecember 17, 2013 at 11:09 PM

    Hi Cliff,

    I was wondering how these models factor in thickness levels? The thickness levels are hitting around 540-545 around this time frame, and we normally need a 520 for Seattle area.

    Just curious if this will really be as much snow as the WRF is producing, because the lack of the 520 line has had me doubtful.

    Thanks!

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  3. JewelyaZDecember 18, 2013 at 12:46 AM

    I'm glad I can plan to work from home, and that I can encourage my employees to do the same.
    Thanks for the early forecast, Cliff.

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  4. JoshDecember 18, 2013 at 9:58 AM

    Come on, big snow! Don't fail us now!

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  5. MimiDecember 18, 2013 at 3:09 PM

    so i suppose light green means "trace of snow that is mostly melted"?

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  6. ConnieDecember 18, 2013 at 3:31 PM

    I'm looking forward to the update tonight or tomorrow AM.

    My colleagues and I have been having a lively discussion on if we will need to be working at work (downtown Seattle) or at homes around the Sound on Friday.

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  7. C.P.O.December 18, 2013 at 3:56 PM

    I agree with Alexandria - thicknesses are too high - I don't see it. But I'm sure the smaller scale models are showing something different.

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  8. Snow DaddyDecember 18, 2013 at 5:37 PM

    Forecasting snow for Puget Sound region: a bit like Lucy promising to hold the football for Charlie Brown.

    We remain, ever hopeful; ever disappointed, snowless in Seattle!

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  9. Cliff Mass Weather BlogDecember 18, 2013 at 6:16 PM

    CPO and Alexandria,
    For snow turning into rain events you CAN have much higher thicknesses. Remember, it is the lower tropospheric temps that count. ..cliff

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  10. LudwigDecember 17, 2014 at 3:51 PM

    After that the temperatures will warm, with snow transitioning to rain by ... snowmobilesuit.blogspot.com

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