The latest radar image (2:27 PM) shows the story--the precipitation shield from the warm front has reached the south Sound. Once precipitation starts aloft, it takes about an hour to reach the surface (need to humidify the layer below)
The latest visible satellite image shows an impressive cloud band with the warm front.
Let me show you some traffic cams.
It has been snowing in Portland for hours.
Vancouver
Here is the Chehalis Airport
Centralia.
It should starting snowing at the surface in Olympia by 3PM. At the current rate of progress, the snow will get to Tacoma around 4 PM and Seattle by 5-5:30 PM.
There appears to be multiple bands...the first band is producing the above snow. It appears to be weakening over southern Puget Sound...and slowed down. So it looks like Seattle commute will be ok. The second band, which should arrive later (if the models are right), well be more of a threat for Seattle and points north...later in the evening.
Are the models for snow depth the same or similar to those of yesterday?
ReplyDeleteCliff,
ReplyDeleteDoes this early arrival change the amount of snow Seattle should expect?
Thanks for the update! I will definitely be leaving work early. Are we still expecting a light snowfall in Seattle?
ReplyDeleteStarted snowing here in Olympia at 2:57 pm--State St and Turner.
ReplyDeleteTake a look at the 16-day GFS. Never seen anything like it since I moved to Oregon in 1989.
ReplyDeleteThat's the real weather news story!
DeleteHaven't looked at the GFS yet.my son is hogging our computer to finish quarter final reports..what is it showing? Most forecasts for next week show super cold again but dry...when there is moisture it says rain....
DeleteCliff,
ReplyDeleteBaased on the models yes but ,mostly on your on-going analysis of them, I predict the first snowflake at my house to occur in exactly 16 minutes and 30 seconds based on the radar info and your meteorological information regarding precipitation calculated for our elevation and windspeed history over the last 45 minutes. I will go out on a limb and predict 2.3" of total snow accumulatiom by 4:20 am tomorrow. I will
Et you know how it turned out. Thanks professor.
OOPS. I did not factor in the accelerated downsloping winds occuring at dusk which have effectively scoured a big blue hole in my precipitation forecast. Forecasting is really tough.
ReplyDeleteAnd Cliff, how about north of Seattle? Or does the buck stop there?
ReplyDeleteFeeling left out of the snow. I was expecting 3-5 inches.
Tacoma 4:40. no snow.
ReplyDelete@BryanBlack - Chilly! And a Feliz Navidad Blanco to all if it all pans out, which *it won't*, at least not as shown...
ReplyDeletePort angeles no snow yet either
ReplyDelete10 miles SE of Chehalis. 600' elev. Started snowing at 1pm. By 5pm, had 2". Napavine Triangle :-). Lew
ReplyDeletePuyallup 5:40 no snow -- strange that the radar has shown snow here for two hours already and not a flake
ReplyDeleteflakey radar?
ReplyDelete5:53 Arbor Heights, West Seattle. No snow.
Bellingham at about 6:15; no snow, lots of north/northeast wind/I can still see some stars peeking through the clouds.
ReplyDeleteStreets are bone dry so far. . . .
Mark
Bellingham at about 8 PM. No snow; moon is still visible through very thin clouds. Wind seems to have died down a wee bit.
ReplyDeleteMark
Snow at SeaTac Airport from the first band that didn't dissipate from about 19:26 to 19:50.
ReplyDeleteAnticipating the next band of precipitation. Hopefully to start at 20:10ish?
Surfaces on runways have been reporting at below freezing.
North Seattle, 8:00. No snow whatsoever. Between this and the windstorm that wasn't, I'm developing an intensely personal dislike for all the Cliff Masses of the world. Particularly this one.
ReplyDeleteAnd yet here you are. Why not put us out of your misery and pay attention to something you DO like. Or is it not that simple?
DeleteDry streets at the top of Maple Leaf so far (455 ft elevation).
ReplyDeleteNo snow near Green Lake at 8PM.
ReplyDelete....wait, Chehalis, has an airport?
ReplyDeleteFinally some flurries in Queen Anne. Not impressive.
ReplyDeleteWell apparently High Point in West Seattle is the donut hole of snow.
ReplyDeleteA few flakes falling at Shoreline at 8:20PM.
ReplyDeleteOlympia at 8:30 pm: 4 inches of snow so far and heavy snow still falling.
ReplyDelete8:25pm. Rainier Beach and only a light dusting. Not currently snowing. I want more snow Cliff!
ReplyDeleteLOL TrickyCoolJ! I used to live at 34th and Myrtle and got more snow than anyone else in the city limits. That was from 1987 to 2003 though. Had drifts over my car door handles once.
ReplyDeleteSnowing in Mukilteo, Lynnwood and edmonds
ReplyDeleteJust started in Montlake at 8:30. Later than expected because it's moving slower? Does that mean it will last longer and accumulate more?
ReplyDeleteNorth Seattle, Broadview. Heavy snow now.
ReplyDeleteSnow started on Vashon, mid-island between 6:30 and 7:00pm. Now about three quarters of an inch. It's moving slower than I thought, but got here all the same.
ReplyDeleteStarted snowing in Gig Harbor at 6:30.....currently dumping snow (9:30)!
ReplyDeleteJust started in Woodinville!
ReplyDeleteStill snowing in shoreline!!
ReplyDeleteThe "first band" never panned out here in Mukilteo. I saw about 3 flakes at 6 p.m. but that was it. Light snow began at 9-9:30, so the forecast was spot on for us. Still snowing but I don't expect we'll see more than a dusting.
ReplyDeleteHere on the coast in Newport, OR the temperature spiked about 15 degrees in 30 minutes around 4 and is now (10:45) at 52F so don't expect the snow to last.
ReplyDeleteSpotted at Bellevue College around 20:00.
ReplyDeleteGot to south Bothell around 21:15.
If I'm reading the radar right, it'll break up to scattered rain in an hour or so, with predictions of temps above freezing at about that point.
No snow at 11pm in north Whatcom County; just our standard non-stop northeaster. Thursday temps in Bellingham were several degrees higher than farther north, and wind wasn't nearly as significant. Generally we don't get snow until/unless this wind dies down. Then there's a a light snowfall, after which the wind picks back up and wreaks havoc.
ReplyDelete2 inches in Queen Anne and snowing moderately at 11:15 pm
ReplyDeleteSteady snow in Fremont since 8:00, started snowing heavily around 9:30. I've measured 1-1/4 - 1-1/2 total accumulation as of 11:15.
ReplyDelete2" on Bainbridge Island. Still snowing. Winslow area, 100' elevation.
ReplyDeleteOne inch in Wedgwood. Still coming dwn. 30 degrees.
ReplyDeletecoming down nicely in Green Lake. too bad it won't stay
ReplyDeleteStill snowing in Shoreline at 2:40 am. Slow but steady.
ReplyDeleteCompletely covered in 2 inches of snow here in Clearview!
ReplyDelete3:43am, 3ish inches and still snowing in Ballard. Beautiful!!
ReplyDeleteNE 65th saw nothing before 8pm. It was calm at 1am except for a few people trying to learn to drive in the snow. 4:30am and it was snowing again.
ReplyDelete2 inches where I am on Bainbridge and still snowing at 5:45. Roads ploughed, school district closed, our bus route cancelled!
ReplyDelete610am, barely 1/2 inch, slushy. downtown waterfront, Bremerton
ReplyDeleteNo rain yet and snow covering ground and side streets in greenwood
ReplyDeleteAbout 3" total on Bainbridge (Winslow area, 100 feet elevation) before it changed over to drizzle and started melting sometime between 2:00 AM and 4:30 AM.
ReplyDeleteIt's a winter wonderland out here in Duvall...beautiful!
ReplyDeleteApproximately 1 inch in Bellingham at 7:15 am. Snowing lightly but still cold - 30 degrees and 22 dew point.
ReplyDeleteWe got about 4 inches in Seabeck ... NICE AND BEAUTIFUL!!!!
ReplyDeleteAlways dependent on exact geography, but from my point of view (north seattle), i'd say Professor Mass's snowmeggeon-2016 forecast was spot on. Came late, about an inch, melting away in the morning, ("just like she..." shaddup!) Well done!
ReplyDelete7-8 inches and still snowing west of Hood Canal at 500'.....
ReplyDelete10:20 here in Bellingham (near Cornwall Park); about 1 inch on ground; very light breeze from south. Snow is starting to dampen. Stuck my arm out and felt no precip at all.
ReplyDeleteMark
Accumulation of 5.7" at 1000' elevation 3 miles SSE of North Bend, WA at 10:30 am and still snowing very light and powdery snow.
ReplyDeleteDarn good forecasting Cliff. I bought tires last week because of your forecasting and sure glad I did.
DO YOU LOVE TO PLAY IN THE SNOW ?
ReplyDelete❄️❄️❄️
Do you love to play in the snow but don't want to drive all the way to the Pass for fun? I shouldnt do this and let the secret out but fot Cliff Mass fans here it is. 30 minutes from Seattle is a wonderful State Park at Rattlesnake Lake. Exit off I-90 and go up the hill on Cedar Falls Way and at the end of the road is a beautiful park with about 6 inches on the ground right now, and they plow the road and parking lot. Have fun out there.
I am a happy camper this morning. We have snow on the ground, and at about 500 feet elevation, just above Lake Goodwin, Northwest of Marysville, it is snowing. It may not all be snow, temp is 33, but it's snowing.
ReplyDeleteIt's still snowing in Glacier - over 2" powder has accumulated since last night. It's warming right now; flakes are getting bigger and we may be heading back to 32/transition point. There are a lot of Weather Underground personal weather stations that report continuously via internet now. "Glacier West Central" is: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWADEMIN7#history
ReplyDeleteI wonder if the U-crew makes use of the data. A number of us calibrate and cross-check.
Starting to snow a bit heavier in Bellingham - temps still around 32 with dew point of 26 at my house on South Hill.
ReplyDelete4" accumulation in Coyle, 230' elevation at tip of Toandos Peninsula in middle of Hood Canal. Simply gorgeous.
ReplyDeleteJambles.....
Delete:)
First heavy snow in Redmond since February 2014. Wow.
ReplyDeleteDidn't amount to much in north Whatcom County, in part because of the wind. Still, the dusting of white looks lovely. Concerned, though, about freezing temps over night and icy roads.
ReplyDeleteNext week is now showing up as cold temps and sunshine every day. Assuming that will be accompanied by more Fraser Valley outflow. What do you say, Cliff?
10" of fresh powder just up the hill from North Bend.
ReplyDeleteOn the Bothell-Mill Creek line it started about 10 pm and was about done by dawn. I'd say a scant two inches...
ReplyDeleteStopped snowing here in Bellingham at about 4:30 PM; looks like clouds are thinning. However, there is still a breeze from the northeast. It seems that the Frazer outflow is still here in Bellingham. Snow in my yard (E. Victor and Guide Meridian across from Cornwall Park) is try (not wet/sticky), which makes me guess that temps here in Bellingham have yet to make it above freezing.
ReplyDeleteMark
Cliff, it's after 5pm.. Friday. and we are getting freezing rain in Kent! What's taking so long for this cold air to get out?
ReplyDeleteHi Colleen! We got a couple of inches in my part of Whatcom county, and it snowed most of the day. Microclimates :)
ReplyDeleteAbout 1/4 inch of pitiful slush at the Admiralty....
ReplyDeleteSpent the chilly dark night reading December technical forecasts.
IMHO...... The real story is the potential to be kissed by a polar Vortex! Pacific decadal oscillation, totally dead blob, extream snow in Siberia, la Nina ... Perfect storm stuff for extremely cold infiltration. (Like record lows)
Scary stuff for those camping. Exciting for those with money to burn on heat.
Dumping snow in North whatcom county...Fraser valley keeping it optimal for snow.
ReplyDeleteYep, as Troy said, on Friday evening decent snowfall is still decent here in north Whatcom County. Supposed to warm up a few degrees overnight & tomorrow, and the slush/freezing rain mix could be "interesting".
ReplyDeleteJoanna, when I said Friday's event didn't amount to much, I meant in relative terms. : ) We did get a couple of inches in my part of the county, too, but as is so often the case, snow here is accompanied by the northeaster & it doesn't settle evenly. Mostly just windy snow throughout the day, nothing noteworthy. More accumulations tonight, like Troy said, and we'll see how it plays out with wind + temps!
I'd like to learn more about what causes it not to snow when temps are below freezing.
ReplyDeleteIn North Auburn, I left the house this (friday) morning when it was raining, temps outside were about 27f. I came home tonight and temps outside were about 29f and it's still raining.
Is it because of warmer air aloft? I figured we should be getting freezing rain if not snow at those temps.
Also, I have a friend who lives between renton and issaquah, they've been getting snow all day. Just a couple miles west of them it's bone dry. Totally weird patchy snow.
Bellingham finally turns to slush at about 9:45PM and north wind seems to be starting to slow down. I walked about 1 mile without falling from E. Victor St. to Downtown.
ReplyDeleteMark
1:15 AM, Mon. 10 miles SE of Chehalis. 600' elev. It's SNOWING. Most of the snow from last week finally disappeared today. Loks like we're heading into a cold snap. A long one. Wonder how long it will hang on? Lew
ReplyDelete