Is Western Washington Really in Severe Drought?

For society to make good decisions on environmental matters, decision makers inside and outside of government require accurate and realistic guidance.  For that reason, I am a bit worried that there is a problem with a frequently cited source of information about drought across the U.S.:  the U.S. Drought Monitor website.

The latest release of this information suggests that Washington State is one of the most drought-affected locations of the U.S., with much of western Washington in severe drought.

Below is an expanded version of the graphic for just Washington State.  Severe drought along the coast, much of SW Washington and the western slopes of the northern WA Cascades.  Moderate drought over more than half the state.

Now is it reasonable to suggest that much of our state is in moderate to severe drought?   Severe drought sounds quite scary to me and one would expect extremely serious problems as a result.

Let us begin by looking at the difference from normal of precipitation for the summer so far. Most of the Northwest  has been near normal, including the supposed "severe drought" area.

Current streamflow?  Most sites are near normal (green colors).  A large number are above normal (cyan and dark blue), a similar number are below normal (orange and red).

Wildfires are below normal across the State this year, as is smoke. 

What about water resources?  All the major urban areas have plenty of water, without any drought restrictions.  Seattle's reservoirs are slightly below normal, with no water issues (see below).

The only water resource issues are on the Olympic Peninsula, where Port Angeles and few small water districts are asking for voluntary reductions in water usage.  I could find no impacts on agriculture or any other industry due to the "drought."

The origin of the drought declaration is from the relatively dry winter we had last year, something illustrated by the figure below, which shows the difference from normal of the total precipitation since October 1, 2018. Southeast Washington was wetter than normal, but the coastal zone and the western Cascade slopes were drier than normal.   But having a location that normally gets 100 inches a year, now receive 80 inches, is a far cry from a severe drought and the impacts are very modest at best.   And a dry winter was supplanted by a normal summer even in those parts.

Another way to appreciate this year's precipitation situation is to view the cumulative precipitation over the past year   For Seattle, we ended up with about 80% of normal precipitation (see below, normal is cyan, observed is purple)

And the situation is similar at Quillayute, on the northern Olympic Peninsula coast.

80% of normal precipitation does not represent an extreme drought and has occurred many times during the past 50 years.

My own opinion is that the term severe drought is not appropriate for the kind of situation observed in western Washington this summer--- one with few impacts and not that unusual.  Using such strong terminology makes it harder to get folks to react when a real severe drought occurs and doesn't accurately communicate the actual threat level.   And some politicians use such overly exuberant language to push their agendas. 

This is the kind of year that "abnormally dry" might be appropriate and the "D word" might not be the best choice.  Extreme drought seems over the top.

Severe drought