The action is associated with the landfall of an upper low on the southern Northwest coast.
At 2 PM Friday it will be offshore of northern California.
Crossing the coast around 5 AM Saturday.
And then weakens and pushes northward into Washington by 11 PM Saturday.
This kind of upper level trough passage is a classic thunderstorm/lightning producer in our region. The trough provides upward vertical motion that produces clouds and precipitation--it also can release instability that can initiate thunderstorms.
Let me shown you the simulated radar imagery produced by the NOAA/NWS HRRR model (yellow, orange and red signify heavier precipitation). Friday at 4 PM the model is predicting thunderstorms on the crest of the Cascades.
By 10 PM, as the trough begins to swing northeastward, an area of showers and thunderstorms surges northward into Washington, particularly the southern Cascades.
And these showers continue to move northward during the next five hours (3 AM Saturday shown). Some thunderstorms will be embedded in the precipitation.
The predicted rainfall totals through 5 AM Saturday are substantial in some areas, particularly the southern and central Cascades, where the HRRR model is going for as much as 1-2 inches (see below). Good for Seattle and Tacoma's water supply. But we do have to worry about lightning-initiated wildfires.
Just saw the latest ENSO forecast and am a little concerned about La Nada winters here on Whidbey Island. The 2012-14 La Nada years produced a storm each of those years that was damaging for us on South Whidbey. One took down 7 trees on our property. Both put 90 foot firs down on the front lawn, one missing a shed by less than a foot and the other finishing the job. A neighbor lost 25 trees.
ReplyDeleteOver here in eastern Washington, we are getting a sense that fall will arrive early this year. It's not something which can be argued scientifically. An early fall seems to be 'in the air' for lack of a better explanation.
ReplyDeletePlease if you see this could you add the total accumulation of precipitation thru the weekend from the Euro. The GFS is producing an extreme amount of rain in Eastern Washington that looks suspect. This could effectively put the kibosh on the entire fire season.
ReplyDeleteEven this mornings weak wave is producing significant rain in central east side. Dew points in the 60s, sunny temperatures in the 90s, this could be big.
Has me confused. NWS as you note is talking about tonight and early Sat. Cliff's opening paragraph talks the same but then the longer narrative talks about Saturday?
ReplyDeleteSo I'm lost as usual. Seems Cliff starts off saying Friday night, then says Sat night?
ReplyDeleteI'm rooting for thunderstorms.
ReplyDeleteThere were some wind direction changes in Port Angeles over the last 24 hours: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=ptaw1&meas=wdir&uom=E&time_diff=-7&time_label=PDT
ReplyDeleteWe'll see,model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral through autumn and winter, but with higher chances for El Niño than La Niña.
ReplyDeleteA steady rain and some thunder overnight (early morning Sat.) here in Ashland, Oregon.
ReplyDeleteJay Inslee must be pulling his hair out by the roots. We live on the east side of the mountains, and got a whole lot of rain last night. Where's my "drought emergency" that Inslee promised?!
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