Snow is coming back to the Washington lowlands.
Northwest Washington, from Bellingham to the San Juan Islands to the northern Olympic Peninsula, will experience a significant snowfall.
The Puget Sound lowlands will experience some flakes, and maybe even some limited freezing rain, but it won't amount to much.
I waited to talk about this until I had confidence in the forecast.
Let me start by showing you the total snowfall (amount of snow falling from the sky) from the latest high-resolution UW forecast. Snow depth would be less.
The precipitation will reach us around dinner time today, but temperatures will be too warm for snow over most of the lowlands. Here are the predicted snow totals through 10 PM tonight. Light amounts over the Olympics and the southern Cascades.
But gird yourself for a shock. Snow totals through 11 AM Wednesday are stunning. Significant snow over southern BC and northwest Washington. Bellingham and the San Juans will have several (up to a half foot) inches. Port Angeles is the same. Nice snowfall over the Cascades and ALL of eastern Washington.
And it doesn't stop. The Cascades end up with 1-2 feet by 7 PM Wednesday. Keep that in mind if you are planning cross-Cascade travel. Whatcom County could get around 8 inches. Southern Vancouver Island, including Victoria, will be hit hard.
The MUCH lower-resolution European Center model is similar, so there is some confidence in this prediction (see below).
So what is going on?
This is an event in two acts.
In the first act, an occluded front associated with a low-pressure system offshore will move through our region. The satellite image (from around noon) shows the story.
The issue is that the atmosphere has warmed up considerably during the past day and is now too warm for significant snow over the lowlands. We know this because we get temperature information from aircraft coming in and out of SeaTac (see plot at 1 PM today below).
It is above freezing near the surface and aloft (above approximately 1600 ft), with a shallow below-freezing zone in between. There could be a few flakes getting to near sea level and perhaps a spot of freezing rain, but nothing of note.
But something special will happen tomorrow that will doom Northwest Washington!
The low center will move into western Washington (see surface map at 7 AM Wednesday) and this will pull cold air (blue in the figure) into NW Washington, particularly through the Fraser River Valley northeast of Bellingham.
The UW WRF model explicitly forecasts this cold flow as shown by the surface wind prediction at the same time (7AM Wednesday).
This northeasterly flow is quite cold enough to snow and thus Bellingham, the San Juans, Victoria, and the northwest Olympic Peninsula will get several inches.
There may be a few flakes over Puget Sound, but nothing significant.
Finally, in my previous blog, I noted that wind and solar were essentially zero for the Northwest in this situation. Well, the situation is still very bad (near zero generation) for wind and solar (green line). Hydro is doing most of the heavy lifting, with nuclear being a very valuable number two.
We need both hydro and nuclear and this situation will not change quickly.
This is reality.
red is total electrical demain, blue is hydro generation, green is wind and solar, purple is nuclear.
What do you propose to do with the spent nuclear fuel for these power plants? It's my understanding it is toxic, if not deadly, to all living things for thousands and thousands of years.
ReplyDeleteWithout nuclear power society at the modern level and population cannot continue to exist. Whether that's good or bad is up to the individual.
Deletevitrify them into ceramics and store them 200ft below the surface like we do with the mercury, cyanide, and arsenic waste we already create as a necessary consequence of having an industrial economy
DeleteThe waste is neither waste nor a problem. US DOE and others have encouraging info. Fast flux and breeder reactors can "burn" up to 98% of the initial fuel and "Spent" fuel from other reactors. What remains can be dry-casked for 600 years and then buried, o harm. Other solutions are also in view. Take a deep dive. You might be happy with the options.
DeleteI don't know how many individuals would think it's "good" for people or animalsto get radiation poisoning some hundreds of years from now, at a defunct radioactive waste storage facility...
DeleteSo people gave you workable and achievable solutions in answering your question yet you continue to whine ad nauseum about other aftereffects, without offering any realistic solutions of your own. Typical.
Delete@Eric Blair I was replying to Caroline's comment. The others hadn't been approved when I replied. No need to get worked up. I'm not a nuclear scientist nor have much knowledge of waste disposal options, that's why I was asking the question. I appreciate the other replies, I didn't know about those potential solutions.
DeleteLee, your response to my post indicates Eric is spot on with his assessment. Whether one thinks the goal of keeping modern society is worthy of the continued development and use of nuclear power is something some may have disagreements about, however, without nuclear power, modern technological society and the population of the earth will both decline.
DeleteLee, I appreciate your willingness to learn. Nuclear waste when properly reprocessed or put into deep geologic storage is not nearly as scary as alarmists would have you believe. We have built the infrastructure to handle it. Our politics are controlled by scientifically illiterate policymakers who haven't come to terms with reality.
DeleteI guess we'll know soon about whether it's too warm to snow or not- right now at dinner time at 500 feet elevation I've got 31 degrees with a dewpoint of 22. I'm expecting a few flakes for sure.
ReplyDeleteThe BPA chart has a "brown" line near the bottom. This is total fossil/biomass generation from 24 sites shown under the image. It becomes ragged as some of these small sites go on breaks on weekends and holidays. There are interesting projects going on from burning stuff, including methane from landfills. They are somewhat hard to learn about but I've searched-up a few.
ReplyDeleteYes, this is interesting as we live in a rainforest where trees fall down all around us, or drop big branches, every time the wind really blows.
Delete7:45pm, freezing rain on Vashon, already a thin layer of ice on everything. I hope this stops soon before it becomes damaging.
ReplyDeleteNear sumas myself, bracing for a foot of snow.... I know it's coming
ReplyDeleteThe monday and tuesday morning dips in the BPA chart show Hydro 4 GW below the load. The Fossil + Nuke is only 2 GW. Where is the missing 2 GW coming from? The California Intertie?
ReplyDeleteHere is a version of the BPA's Generation and Load graph which covers the period of 16 December 2023 through 16 January 2024.
ReplyDeleteIt consolidates the two graphs shown in one of my comments to the previous Cliff Mass article. This version is designed to fit on a single Powerpoint presentation slide for those of you who might find it useful.
BPA Generation and Load, 16 December 2023 thru 16 January 2024
As is demonstrated by this graph, just when wind and solar need to be generating the most, more often than not, they are generating the least.
It is claimed that regions in the mountain west region produce wind in the winter which is when it’s needed in the Pacific Northwest. Initially there will not be substantial battery capacity to ensure overlap of supply and demand, so the impact of wind power is mostly a question for meteorology. Eventually mass storage could come online to assure overlap, and bring the resilience of wind power up near the level now enjoyed by powerplants.
DeleteWe've been hearing about "mass storage coming online soon" for years now, whether it's regarding wind power or solar or emanations from Unicorns. None of them are close to achievability, and most of the projects have proven to be nothing more than enormous wastes of taxpayer monies and the epitome of lining of crony capitalist's pockets. Not to mention the obvious harm caused to local ecosystems, which have been documented regarding the huge toll of bird life and whales beaching themselves onto shores.
DeleteFreezing rain and a thick layer of ice over everything in Sultan this morning. Freezing rain coming down. It's a literal ice skating rink out there. Stay safe.
ReplyDeleteheavy snowfall at noon.
DeleteWinter wonderland warning in Whatcom today :)! The roads are in pretty bad shape relative to the amount of precipitation that's fallen. Stay home if you can.
ReplyDeleteThe UW model pretty much nailed it so far in S. Bellingham. We woke up to 2 inches and mixed precip but it is all snow now and coming down at 1inch/hour rate and about 4 inches on the ground. Winds have switched to NE and temps steady at 31f.
ReplyDeleteQuick update - the heavy snow this morning has added up to 8in on the ground at 11:45 am.
DeleteLee,
ReplyDeleteThis is much a political issue:
See Wikipedia page "Nuclear reprocessing"
President Gerald Ford issued a Presidential directive to indefinitely suspend the commercial reprocessing and recycling of plutonium in the U.S. On 7 April 1977, President Jimmy Carter banned the reprocessing of commercial reactor spent nuclear fuel. The key issue driving this policy was the risk of nuclear weapons proliferation by diversion of plutonium from the civilian fuel cycle . . .
Nailed it on the north Olympic Peninsula (Port Angeles vicinity). Rain early AM in the lowlands (with freezing rain at 2000') transitioned to snow around 9:00 a.m., heavy at times, with 1-2" new snow in Port Angeles by 11am.
ReplyDeleteThat cobalt nuclear line (gotta love the choice of cobalt for nuclear) should be more like 4GW instead of 1.2GW. We need leaders with scientific acumen and political courage who understand that if they really want to shut our gas off, they had better be ready to dump 50A into every residence continuously without asking us to turn our heat down when the temperature dips to 10 degrees.
ReplyDeleteSure, I'll turn my heat down. I'll just light a wood fire in my fireplace that fills my entire neighborhood with particulate pollution while being more carbon-intensive than the gas you want to take away.
And what to do with spent fuel? Reprocess it into MOX fuel and burn most of the medium-lived fission products away. The little bit of high-level waste left over wouldn't be a problem if we actually had a brain and opened Yucca Mtn in the middle of the Nevada desert. That stuff can glow for generations deep underground far from the water table without hurting a soul. Blame Harry Reid and Barack Obama for Yucca Mtn being mothballed despite billions spent to prepare the site.
Yeah the negative affects of all these policy changes will be substantial. More wood burning to suppliment heat, more backyard mechanics servicing their own heat equiptment to negate cost (which will lead to venting more refrigerant into atmosphere), and as I argued at nauseum last post more demand for electricity as they ban natural gas. It is so frustrating.
DeleteHeavy snow all night & continuing today here in Lynden (north Whatcom County). As per usual when it snows, the northeaster is blowing something fierce.
ReplyDeleteClose to 9" of snow on the ground in north Bham. BLI has reported almost 0.75" SWE so far. It looks like the most recent snowfall of similar or greater magnitude for the majority of Whatcom County during El Nino was the winter of 1968-1969.
ReplyDeleteAfter 9in of snow yesterday, it looks like Bellingham is about to get several more today, before it turns to rain. I'm surprised the NWS hasn't issued a winter storm warning as the Weather Channel app has it snowing heavily for about 5 hours before the rain arrives.
ReplyDeleteNorth of you in Lynden, I had the same thought, Kevin.
DeleteCurious if there are any more chances for lowland snow over the next couple of weeks or did we just shoot our shot now...I know the north end got popped but is there anything on the horizon for the rest of us?
ReplyDeleteThis warm front is sure taking its own sweet time. It must have got cold feet- pun intended! Originally they said it would "scour out" the cold air today and reach 50 degrees by Saturday.
ReplyDelete