Heavy Snow in the Mountains and Snowflakes over the Western Lowlands are Now a Certainty

We are now close enough in time to predict a snowy future:   many feet in the mountains and a good dusting in several western Washington locations near sea level.

Some dramatic changes in our weather are ahead starting tomorrow (Sunday) afternoon.

During the afternoon, a very strong cold front will move through western Washington, bringing powerful winds and rapidly declining temperatures. 

To illustrate, below is the predicted surface weather map for 1 PM Sunday, with pressure (isobars, solid lines),  surface winds, and near-surface (800 meters) temperatures (shading) shown.

I have indicated the frontal location on the map (red line), with cold air (blue color) behind it.  

Do you see the large change in pressure over western Washington (lots of lines)?   That will cause strong southerly winds, with gusts to 30-45 mph over the lowlands. 

After the front moves through, it will be game-on for regional snow.

Snowfall accumulations from 4 PM Saturday through 1 PM Sunday, right before the cold front moves into western Washington, is moderate, with perhaps a half-foot over the northern Cascades.

One day later, as cool, moist Pacific air from behind the cold front has pushed through, and the mountain snowfall is getting impressive, with higher elevations getting 2 feet or more.  Look carefully and you will see some snow reaching sea level, particularly north of Everett.

 

More snow will fall on Monday night and Tuesday morning, bringing mountain snowfall totals of 1-2 yards by Tuesday Afternoon.

The European Center model forecast is similar, and if anything more generous with the snowy bounty, with the totals through 4 PM 3 March pretty impressive.  much of the Cascades receiving more than 45 inches.

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center is going with the chilly, snow-laden message with its prediction for search March being much colder and wetter than normal in the West (see below).

And did I mention that El Nino is starting to collapse?

A lot of reasons to expect our water situation and snowpack may not be too bad starting summer.