Hurricane Milton Has Deepened Rapidly into a Category Five Storm

What happened to Hurricane Milton yesterday is truly stunning.

Over one day, the strongest sustained winds in the storm strengthened from 90 to 180 mph.  It has subsequently weakened to "only" 165 mph.    Still a very strong category 5 storm.

The central pressure of the storm declined to 897 hPa (a unit of pressure) before increasing to 914 hPa.

The strongest Atlantic hurricane on record (Wilma) had a central pressure of 882 hPa..... not that different than Milton!

An infrared satellite image of Milton last night.   Not the beautifully forced eye...

a sign of a very strong storms

Milton revved up over a patch of warm water northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula.  We are talking about water in the upper 80s (F).  Fortunately, it is now moving over cooler water, which is contributing to a modest weakening.

Now let me show you some amazing simulations.   

Specifically, I will show you the surface winds from the high-resolution  NOAA/NWS HWRF model.   At 11 PM Monday, a very tight, ultra-intense storm of right off of the Yucatan. with maximum sustained winds at 174 mph.    Remember, gusts can be substantially higher, with some reaching over 200 mph!.  Wow.

Moving forward in time to 2 AM Thursday, the storm has expanded a bit, with maximum sustained winds of "only" 120 mph.  A category 4 storm.  

The approaching hurricane will push high waves on top of substantial storm surge, so coastal areas, particularly south of the low center, will be flooded. As shown in the forecast for late Wednesday, some of the waves could reach 30 ft.  And that could be on top of storm surge

 of 10-15 ft (see National Hurricane Center map below).   It is clear that the west coast of Florida from Tampa southward needs to be evacuated immediately.

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Announcement:  Free Public Lecture at Kane Hall on October 10:  Global Warming, the Jet Stream, and Cold Waves

All of you are invited to attend what should be an excellent public lecture by Professor Jonathan Martin on how global warming affects the jet stream and cold air outbreaks.

It will be a timely and interesting lecture accessible to non-meteorologists and given in honor of UW Professor Peter Hobbs.

The talk will be at 7 PM in Kane Hall room 210.

If you would like to go, please register online here:

Parking is available (at a modest cost) in the UW Central Garage, which is located directly under Kane Hall.  Or take the light rail (the UW stops are a 5-10-minute walk away).

North Carolina did not effectively warn and evacuate people for Helene and hundreds perished.   We can hope that Florida will be much more effective.