November 05, 2024

Will Weather Influence a Very Close National Election?

There is a large literature on how adverse weather can suppress voter turnout and make a difference in close elections.     

This is certainly a close presidential election. 

Although about half the U.S. electorate has already voted, could the weather today be a factor?

So let's look at the latest weather observations and find out!

The latest national radar map, which shows areas of precipitation,  indicates mainly dry conditions over many of the critical states (Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada).  Light rain over northern Michigan and parts of Wisconsin.


The 6-hour totals ending about 2 PM EST are consistent with the radar...nothing major that would impede voting.


What about temperatures?  The predicted high temperatures today should be mild along the eastern third of U.S.--so little impact.   


 The coldest temperatures in a swing state will be over northern Wisconsin, but those will only be in the 40s.  Really not much of concern.

The National Weather Service has a national weather warning map (below).  Really nothing of any significance for critical states.

In summary, the weather gods have decided not to get in the way of this election, so storms and severe weather will not be an excuse for the losing side.😋


5 comments:

  1. Nope. The fault wasn't the weather. But I can't understand why so many people bought his lies- Hook, line, and sinker. Now we will have a crook running our country for the next 4 years unless someone finally has the guts to lock him up.

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    Replies
    1. Having left WA recently after 45 years, it’s striking how much of an echo chamber it is. If one doesn’t actively work to counter one’s own biases, there is no hope for approaching objectivity.

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    2. It the social media, I think, which are the biggest echo chambers.

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    3. Not everything echoing in an echo chamber is untrue.

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