Important Update
Video evidence now available that the Eaton Fire (second biggest fire) was caused by a failing power transmission line:
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/01/scenes-from-the-fire-line.php
We know that the fire started around 10:30 AM on Tuesday. The GOES visible satellite image at that time is shown below and you can see the smoke plume from a single fire.
What do we find at the location where the fire started? Powerlines. Hung on wood structures. I have several pictures of the location and the powerlines (see below)
Could these structures have handled the 80-100 mph winds that occurred on Tuesday and Wednesday?
Not convinced the powerlines did it? There is other evidence. The wonderful Ting power sensor network noted disturbances in the electrical power system in the neighborhood just prior to the fire.
Finally, the fire initiation location does not look like an area where homeless encampments would be located. Encampments where camp fires would be found.
The big question is why the Los Angeles power authorities did not de-energize all the power lines on the hills.
The mainstream media called this exactly, well before it started. I am quite sure that class actions are already underway.
ReplyDeleteTurning off the power would have inconvenienced the ultrarich residents of Pacific Palisades.
ReplyDeleteToday's crop of DEI "leaders" are utterly lost, focused on identity politics, not fire prevention and quick response. As is easily predicted, this self-destructive mentality has cost everything.
ReplyDeleteTerrible if this indeed is the cause. We'll probably find that the person responsible for that stretch of power line was on vacation and their replacement was not properly trained to make decisions about shutting off power....kind of like the missing bolts on the Max plane. Completely avoidable, lots of finger pointing and no one really responsible.
ReplyDeleteUse "Street View" to look at the vegetative status of the houses in the Summit and other communities. Landscaping plants, trees, and vines are all around and on (repeat ON) the buildings. Try this spot:
ReplyDelete34.074756, -118.549405
Move around to get a 360° view of the neighborhood. The two members of our County's fire department that rated my house's defensibility would give these places a big fat Zero. No way would the try to enter those places – even if they could get in. Only garage doors and a front door are accessible.
While not disputing the likely fire origin's location, I am curious about the power line/poles location(s). Looking at the power line photos here and Google Maps, it appears the power lines are further NNW of the area identified. They appear to be closer to the round structure than the Split Rock Fire Road. The path of this 34.5Kv power line is confirmed by the LA Water & Power map. I realize we are talking about a separation of about 500 ft. (which is orders of magnitude greater than the resolution of modern satellites), so it is indeed possible to identify the "precise" locations of the cause/effect discussed here. An explanation could be the wires were blown around by the wind, contacted each other, and the resulting sparks are carried in the direction of the wind before landing. IMHO, this scenario is more likely than poles being damaged and collapsing. But I am sure the "truth" will come out, particularly when tied to liability. :)
ReplyDeleteGood post, with reasonable conclusions. This being a weather/climate blog, it also seems worth mentioning that Southern California is in a severe drought. It hasn't rained in the LA area in 8 months and soil moisture is exceptionally low. Whatever else happens, drought makes it worse.
ReplyDeleteJerry...drought had little to do with this fire. Remember these are light fuels. 1-10h fuels generally. So they would dry out in hours under the condition preceding the fire event. Drought DID NOT make this worse. ..cliff
DeleteCliff, the fire zones include some natural areas that are not just grasslands, but also forest (oak, bay laurel, walnut) and coastal sage scrub. However MOST of the fire zones have been in residential areas where the fuel includes structures, shade and palm trees, lawns, and ornamental greenery. It seems like a stretch to dismiss all of this as "light fuels" that are not affected in any way by drought.
DeleteNot a stretch at all. Light fuels dry rapidly, so long-term drought is not relevant. Grass and light fuels played a critical role in starting the fires. THEN the houses and environment played important roles....they also have little to do with drought.
DeleteI don't say this lightly, but I believe negligent utility decisionmakers should be criminally charged for involuntary manslaughter. This wind event and firestorm danger was well-predicted, with recent similar events that unfolded exactly like this, yet the people who had the responsibility to prevent it were asleep at the switch.
ReplyDeleteStrong evidence, you present. Any locals know if there are sometimes homeless campers along the Temescal Ridge Trail? Or if any Summit Community residents climb up the aptly named Split Rock Fire Road to set off fireworks and watch them blow SW over the community. If the latter there would be many witnesses.
ReplyDeleteThe Santa Anna wind event is now predicted to continue into next week. Warnings are coming from some quarters inside the US military that if this fire isn't stopped, and quickly, the LA urban area as far south as Wilshire Boulevard might end up being destroyed.
ReplyDeleteHmm, doesn't look like these power lines have vibration dampers installed, something that should be mandatory for lines with high wind exposure. SCE was cited for failure to do this in 2023. Ironic that they were invented by a SCE engineer.
ReplyDeleteThis post should be displayed on a billboard in Los Angeles. Seriously.
ReplyDeleteGreat detective work. Evidence based investigation. And here was me thinking it was due to climate change.
ReplyDeleteCliff: asking SoCal Edison to turn off power to the Uber-rich, loud and left-wing Hollywood folks would be unimaginable. Rich, entitled and commited supporters of Newsom and Soros-supported LA mayor acting quickly to help others?. Never going to happen. If CA and LA government focused on safety versus excuses the entire state and county woulld be better off.
Its not just the wooden structures holdng the powerlines. Its commonly the wires themselves. In 1988 several of my musician friends were living at the historic Preston Ranch just north of Cloverdale California. The history of this ranch can be seen on YouTube my searching for "Madam Preston". I am actually headed there this Friday. Anyway, one of them was up at 3AM to head to her job as a nurse and saw flames heading up the hill. She woke up everyone in the various buildings and all got out of danger barely - in some cases they didn't even have time to put clothes on. Several buildings were lost. Later on investigations had found that a powerline had simply come apart at one of the many splices that PG&E had cobble together where the libe had broken before. There were something like 15 splices in between poles where the life failed again, and sparked a fire. PG&E was simply too cheaopp to replace a broken wire with new, and was holding the old one together literally with bailing wire and duct tape. My friends lost artwork and instruments and had to find new places to live. The resultant lawsuit covered some of the damages but barely.
ReplyDeleteThe Eaton fire was started by powerlines: https://youtu.be/PlqJcu9VDBc?si=5GLJJXVGdlkNdrU3
ReplyDeleteMay be the cause for the one, but what of the others? (multiple fires, in other zones and valleys). The howling winds and sparks in these other spots weren't all connected, or were they? I'm still mystified by that element.
ReplyDeleteSeveral comments falsely claim that the only negative would be inconveniencing the ultra-rich. For those who take medication that requires refrigeration and those on supplemental oxygen cutting off power to an entire region for multiple days is itself a life-threatening emergency. And there are impacts for many others as well eg spoiled food, ruined work product, lost wages. I'm not saying the balance never tips in favor of shutting off all the power. I'm just saying there's more to the equation than inconveniencing the ultra-rich.
ReplyDeleteWell, looks like "the equation" just got blown to smithereens. The power company should have installed generators in each and every house, for free. The cost of doing that would have been a small fraction of what this will be costing them.
DeleteWhile true, going to quote Spock, the need of the many outweight the need of the few. Also, as I said ALL people have skin the game. Can't always rely on utilities or the govt to provide. Areas hit by winter storms, tornadoes, hurricanes, people tend to have generator backups, as they can be without power for weeks. If you have conditions that require electricity for you to survive and cannot do without it at least a plan to go somewhere with electricity backup or probably should have a generator don't you think? The equation should always be for the safety and well being for the masses, not inconveniencing one group or another. Pretty sure if ask the people that lost everything, they would of preferred losing food in refrigerator or if they have 02 or meds, them having to stay somewhere else or running a generator.
DeleteThe prejudice and ignorance of many posters is astounding. You have no insight into the decisions of the power company. Let's find out what really happened. Cliff provided facts. Opinions without facts are dangerous.
ReplyDeleteAstonishing, given this is a well-known cause of massive fires.
ReplyDeleteNo reason to make this into a class-war issue. The wealthy and ultra-wealthy all lost their houses together. It should, however, serve to highlight the urgent need for more intensive (competently intensive) public oversight of our power utilities.
Apparently there was an effort to replace the wooden poles with steel ones back in 2019. But this area happens to be home to Braunton’s milkvetch, an endangered plant species. So the California Coastal Commission issued a cease-and-desist order and fined the utility $2 million because of milkvetch removal. Ironically, this milkvetch preferentially grows in areas disturbed by fire. At least the milkvetch will prosper!
ReplyDeleteAt this rate, the milkvetch will inherit the earth, or at least Southern California.
DeleteAdding to the irony, Braunton’s Milkvetch, being a fire adapted species, *requires* (burn) scarification to peel away the outer husk of deposited seeds to reseed an area and propagate. Fire suppression efforts in the region help reduce that potential for regrowth, hampering efforts to move it off the endangered species list.
DeleteThis article talks about a fire days earlier, Jan 2 in the same area, likely caused by fireworks. Flare up is also a theory. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/13/us/palisades-fire-cause-ignition-point-site.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&tgrp=off&pvid=44B803B2-7CB8-45F5-86AA-B3AC48A1ED69
ReplyDelete