If you are wondering where much of our precipitation will be headed, look to the south. California is going to be very wet during the next week or so.
Below is the predicted total precipitation through March 18, using the European Center model. As much as 12 inches over portions of Northern CA. Even LA gets fairly wet.
Seattle will be drier than LA...think about that.
Why is this happening?
Because one after another, upper-level troughs of low pressure will plunge southward into California, leaving Washington State relatively high and dry. Troughs are associated with upward motion and precipitation.
Let me show you a series of upper-level charts that present the heights of the 500 hPa pressure surface. You can think of this as the pressure around 18,000 ft. Blue and white colors indicate below-normal pressures...or troughs.
At 4 AM this morning, a trough was over southern CA.
This will be the second La Nina winter that doesn't "perform" the way a La Nina winter usually does. They may need to re-write the textbooks, so to speak. La Nina=ridging in our region.
ReplyDeleteUnderstanding major atmospheric patterns requires thousands of samples, not two.
DeleteI've lived in WA since 2021 and it sure seems like we've had a lot of these "high and dry" winters since then! i don't know if i've really experienced a "normal" PNW winter since I've moved here
ReplyDeleteRyne: "Widely variable" is what's normal in the PNW. Give it some time, I'm sure you'll see plenty of variability. The five years that preceded your arrival were pretty darned wet, with plenty of snow here (and even a very nasty flooding) in the Mt Baker area. Don't throw out your umbrella! Cheers.
DeleteThe prophet (seer) William Branham who saw Mussolini rise and fall before he existed Who saw WW2 before it transpired etc Who saw driverless cars in the 40’s saying they will advance to no steering wheel sitting around a table SAW LA SINK INTO THE OCEAN, saying it is sitting in a honeycomb that will collapse back to the Salton sea. Go hear his prophecy in 63 “ It will be worse than the last day of Pompeii!!!!”
ReplyDeleteBiblically speaking, prophets who made even 1 prediction that was wrong were eligible for stoning. However, it was mostly the ones who were correct every time that were stoned.
DeleteThis is a pattern than happens in CA... every decade, or so. LA basin rainfall ranges from a low of 4 inches in a winter, to a high of 38 inches -- if you look at the long term records. It's a cycle... nothing new. Super wet winters..one storm after the other. Followed by a decade of nice California Sunshine.
ReplyDeleteIn the 1982-83 LA had 31+ inches of rain in a year. At the same time Northern California had weeks of rain --unending rain. (I had to travel to LA weekly, then, and what a mess that place is when it rains a lot!) Meanwhile in Northern California the Russian River flooded (again) and there was so much rain the freeways in the SF bay area all became rivers. You couldn't drive to the SF Airport because that section of the highway was completely underwater. So many big drops of rain, and endless days of pouring. But, it wasn't considered uncommon. (Heck, I know people who bragged about "insurance buying them new wall-to-wall carpet" every decade. It was common.
In the late 1977-78 LA had 33+ inches of rain in a year (with significant rain each year from 1976 to 1980). It's a normal -- not yearly, but regular cycle. There is a reason that the LA basin spent all that money on the flood channels -- big dry cement washes. Northern California was drenched. There were cautions to avoid snowmobiling in the Sierras after some people were garroted by the high power lines. CalTrans had to extend the snow markers on the highway, so the snow plows/blowers could still see them. It snowed in the SF Bay area, two years in a row. CA doesn't get regular rain like the Pacific Northwest...the tap goes on, and then goes off. It's not all that unpredictable -- it's why there are so many reservoirs.
As for Fire: California (up until the late 70's when the wildfire abatement program ended) had a very aggressive program. There were hundreds of localized experts, and burning of the grass and underbrush was common in every community.
It ended because of the logic: "we haven't had a big fire for so long, it's not an issue". There was a push to save the money. It was promoted that "nature knows best" and fire suppression was best left to nature. The argument was promoted that 'native vegetation is resistant to fire, if left alone'.
So, layers of permits were created to make permits to burn restrictive -- the state added in Air Quality Management Districts, to add even more layers of complexity. The CFD (california fire district) became the over-riding Sacramento-based authority (locals were relieved of their expertise). CFD limited the number of burns in a year, and only during strict weather periods. And, so many budget cuts... all cited as "environmentally sound".
It's not the rain and the grasses growing -- its the inability to mitigate around urban centers.
Personally I'm waiting for the next Great Flood like 1861-1862 ... which that made the Central Valley a huge lake. Of course, then we'll hear that it's "climate change".
I'm always a bit confused as to what exactly California should want if it wants to minimize its fire season. A wet winter contributes to vegetation growth which then becomes fire fuel. But if it's a dry winter we'll hear about how dry it is heading into the dry season and how that may mean a bad fire season.
ReplyDeleteSo should we root for "average" rainfall?