Is There Really A Drought Emergency in Washington State?

 The Washington State Department of Ecology has declared a drought emergency for large areas of Washington State, with particular emphasis on the Yakima watershed of south-central Washington.

Looking at observations and predictions,  this drought declaration appears to be unwarranted and in error.

Let me provide the evidence, and you can decide.   

First, if there is a drought situation,  you might expect that precipitation would have been below normal over the "drought emergency" area, resulting in dry soils, both at the surface and below the surface.   

To evaluate this, below is the percentage of normal precipitation during the "water year" from October 1 to yesterday.  

Above normal (120-130%) precipitation at Yakima (star)!  Most of Yakima and Kittitas counties received above-normal precipitation, and only a small portion on the northeast side was below normal.

What about comparing precipitation at Yakima and Ellensburg over this water year and previous water years ending April 8?     The answer is below.

At both locations, this year was considerably wetter than normal!   Doesn't suggest much of a water emergency, does it?

What about the Vegetation Drought Response Index?   Unusually moist!

Or streamflows in the Drought Emergency area? Near normal or above normal!

The truth is that precipitation has been bountiful over the Drought Emergency area, and soils and vegetation are normally moist, if not wetter than normal.

There must be SOMETHING suggesting drought!   What is causing all this panic?   

Perhaps it is because of the snowpack?   

Below is the percent of normal for the water content of the regional snow pack this morning. 

 Northeast of Yakima, it is 97%.  Below normal by 3%!  And 105% (above normal) in Yakima and to the south.   91% for Wenatchee, but dropping to 74% to the north.

 Folks...this is not a serious situation and certainly not an emergency for Yakima and Kittitas Counties.

How can I be so sure this is no emergency?  Because the NOAA/NWS Northwest River Forecast Center considers both snowpack and precipitation to predict river levels during the next 5 months.   

River levels on the Yakima,  Columbia, and other major rivers control how much water is available for irrigation.

Below is a sample of their forecast, showing you the predicted river levels in 120 days (August)--at the end of our dry summer.  Most of the values are 80-100 % of normal.

The Columbia River will be 95-100%.

There is no water emergency, not even close.  Not even in the neighborhood.

State officials pushing this narrative are doing a profound disservice to our state.

As expected, the Seattle Times Climate Lab gave this "emergency" big play in the paper today.

The naked political advocacy and bias of the paper were pretty obvious, as suggested by all the Trump talk in the article (see sample below).

The Seattle Times is rapidly losing any credibility as a source of reliable environmental information.  Really unfortunate and very unnecessary.

April is the Month of Drying

In western Washington and Oregon, April is the month of drying.

And the same is true of much of the West Coast.

This may sound strange considering the popular mention of April showers in song and verse.

Consider the climatological probability of receiving at least 0.01 inch of precipitation at Seattle Tacoma Airport (below).  

A large drop between April 1 and May 1.  By far, this is the largest one-month decline of the year.  By the way,  .01 inch of liquid water is the criterion for measurable precipitation.

The probability of precipitation is relatively steady from mid-November to late March (50-60%), but declines to approximately 38% in late April.  

On the Washington coast (Clearwater), the situation is similar .... a big drop from the winter wet plateau to drier conditions in April (the probability of measurable rain dropping from  70% to 50%).

What about San Francisco further down the coast? 

Also a big drop in the probability of precipitation in April---but an equally large decline occurs during March.   The drying starts earlier in San Francisco.

To further illustrate the profound drying in April, below is a plot of the average precipitation along the West Coast in March and May.

Wow.   Huge decline everywhere.  Precipitation essentially goes away for Southern California during April.   LA beach season has begun!

So the question you must be asking is why?   Why is there a big drying in April over the West Coast? 

Significant changes occur in the atmosphere between the two months.  

Consider sea level pressure.  In March, there is strong low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska and high pressure west of Mexico.   This pattern is associated with strong westerly (from the west) winds in the lower atmosphere that bring storms and moisture to the West Coast.

The same map (sea-level pressure) for May is very different.  High pressure has pushed up the West Coast.  With sinking air to the east of highs, that means that much of the coastal region is under descending air...which is inherently dry.

By May, a thermal trough of low pressure has moved northward up the interior... the classic summertime pattern.    And with high pressure moving northward and low pressure to the north retreating, the jet stream is weakening and storms are deflected northward.  

Finally, a little irony.   Even though April is a drying month, this April will start with a LOT of precipitation (see the totals through Saturday morning).  Two to three inches of liquid water in some of the mountains!

The Seattle Times Claims About the Termination of the National Weather Service Are False

 The Seattle Times ClimateLab stories are often sloppy and incorrect, with the article in today's paper a good example of poor journalism, with politicized, error-filled claims.

The headline on a front page story today asks whether "this story is a goodbye to the National Weather Service..."?

Then it describes a potentially last visit to the National Weather Service before Trump and MAGA

Haven't got the point yet?    Then read into the story.

So the claim is that the Trump folks are closely following the Project 2025 document, which calls for ending NOAA and sending NWS forecast functions to the private sector.

Want it even clearer?  The Seattle Times article then quotes an article in the Atlantic discussing "the MAGA plan to end free weather reports"

The Big Problem with the Seattle Times Story

The essential problem with the story is that NONE OF IT IS TRUE.

False, unsupported claims, that are overtly pushing a partisan viewpoint.

Stronger words would be appropriate, but I will leave those to others.

Consider some facts.

Fact 1:  No National Weather Service office has been terminated.

Fact 2:  No change in National Weather Service  (NWS) products has been made or proposed.

Fact 3:  President Trump explicitly denied that he follows Project 2020 plans and has explicitly rejected it.  

Let me say this again....President Trump has explicitly stated he does not support Project 2025.  He said it presents thoughts of the far right.  NOT HIS. 

Fact 4:  The new head of the Department of Commerce (Howard Lutnick),  the department to which NOAA and the NWS belong, has explicitly stated that he will not eliminate NOAA or the NWS.

Don't believe me?  Check out this AXIOS article.

Lutnick stated he would maintain the NWS in his testimony in the U.S. Senate.

Fact 5:  I have talked to folks in the new administration.  They have made it clear that there is no agenda to get rid of NOAA or the NWS.

Disappointing "Journalism"

The author of this story, Erik Lacitis, called me up when he was writing the article.   I told him the facts. I have a deep knowledge of the situation in the NOAA and the NWS, having served on several advisory committees and having written several papers on the situation.  

Yet, even given the facts, the author produced this clearly incorrect article.  Very disappointing.   

The Trump Administration Has Not Done Well So Far with NOAA/NWS

Finally, let me be clear. 

 The Trump administration has made several serious mistakes, such as firing probationary NOAA/NWS employees and then having to rehire them.  The Trump folks don't seem to have a logical game plan for understanding what needs to be fixed in NOAA and then doing something about it.

NOAA has deep flaws that need to be addressed.    This administration needs to reach out to those who understand the issues and have ideas about how to fix them.  

Can you plant your seeds yet?

 This time of the year, I start thinking about my vegetable garden and whether the soil is warm enough to plant some seeds.

Certainly, the weeds have started to sprout and grow.

So let's check with our friends at the AgWeatherNet at Washington State University.

Below is the latest soil temperature at 2 inches down.  Lower to mid-50s in western Washington and 50s to lower 60s in eastern Washington.    The warmest soil is around Yakima, which is typical.

I sometimes muse about why the Yakima area is so warm.  Yakima is in the sinking zone southeast of the Cascades, with the sinking air warming by compression and reducing any clouds.   Fewer clouds means more warming solar radiation.  You can see the effect today at noon (see visible image below).

The SNAP satellite can measure soil temperature from space....here is a view of the entire West Coast three days ago.  Nice and warm soils in California and southern Nevada, with the Yakima to Tri-Cities area the warmest in the NW.

Consider the plot of 2-inch soil temperature at Seattle (near the Urban Horticulture Center at the UW).  Soil temperatures had dropped into the 30s back in February during our extended cold period, but it is now just about 50°F.  It was around 60°F in mid-October.

Now, back to the big question: what seeds can we plant now? 

 Considering the following table, there are plenty of vegetable seeds that can be started now, particularly the leafy veggies.  But not beans, squash, and melons, which require warm soil.  

Time to get working!

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Announcement

I will hold a special online Zoom session at 8  PM on Sunday for Patreon supporters. I will talk about the latest spring/summer forecasts and answer your questions.

April 1 Special: The Initiation of UW ClimateLab Reports

 Concluding that if you can't beat them, join them, today I will start the first in a series of UW ClimateLab examinations on the effects of global warming on our region.

In this issue, let's examine the effects of global warming on spring (March-May) conditions in the Northwest by looking at trends from 1950-2024.

In western Washington, Olympia Airport is a good place to start, since there is less urbanization than central Puget Sound (see satellite image for the surroundings, below)

Starting with the annual highest spring temperatures (below), there is nearly no long-term trend (brown line).   Very surprising......and disappointing for those who enjoy warmth in spring.

In contrast, there is modest warming for the average springtime high--by about 2°F since 1950.

The mean minimum temperature has warmed up by about the same amount (2°F)

Precipitation at Olympia? Up about an inch.

ClimateLab conclusions:  No increase in extreme highs.  A little moister.  A Modest 2F increase in average highs and lows.

Now let's turn to Eastern Washington...and you can't go wrong with Ephrata, which is hardly in an urban neighborhood.

For the highest spring temperature, there has been no upward trend.  Nada.

The mean daily high temperature has increased slowly, by about 2.5°F since 1950

And surprisingly, the mean minimum temperature has cooled.

Spring precipitation has increased slightly.

Bottom line:  very similar to Olympia, with precipitation increasing slightly, the extreme temperatures remaining the same, and the average high going up about 2°F.

Virtually all stations in Washington State without urbanization or other issues are similar.  

Extreme springtime highs are not going anywhere, and precipitation is modest.  Average highs have gone up about 2°F in 75 years, without acceleration of the warming.

The ClimateLab will allow you to decide whether this is an existential threat or a crisis.

Happy April 1.

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Important Notice:  My UW talk will be delayed until April 17.