A major opportunity beckons for auroral lovers in Washington State on Sunday evening, with sky conditions being optimal for viewing.
The NOAA Space Weather Center has put out a G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storm watch for late Sunday and Monday (another reason we need NOAA!). This potential geomagnetic storm is due to a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) yesterday.
At this point, the NOAA Space Center is predicting a Kp index of nearly 8 on Sunday evening, which would be a strong event.
My rule of thumb is that I get excited about the potential for an aurora in Washington State when the Kp gets to 7 or more. We will have that if the NOAA folks are right.
Below is the NOAA schematic for the typical distribution of aurora probability at the Kp 7 level: we get a piece of the action.
What above viewing conditions? Clouds or smoke? The answer is no....viewing should be excellent.
The cloud forecast for tomorrow evening (a 11 PM) is favorable (little clouds).
The Canadian wildfire smoke is heading south far east of us:
The moon should not be a major problem; it will be about 40% illuminated and lower on the western horizon. The later you look, the lower the moon.
One issue is the late sunset this time of year (about 9 PM). Don't bother looking until around 10:30 PM
No guarantees, but there is a decent chance you will see something. Look north from a place without nearby lights. My favorite spot is the kite hill in Magnuson Park.
And remember, your smartphone camera is far more sensitive than your eye. You can use it as a tool to see whether anything is there.
May was modestly cooler and drier than average for the Western Washington interior lowlands.
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