Major Global Cooling of the Past Two Years and the Big U.S. Heatwave Last Month. Climate Change?

One of the most effective and accurate ways to monitor the slow warming of our planet from increasing greenhouse gases is to use satellites that measure the radiation emitted by our atmosphere.  

One of the leading groups in using this technology is at the University of Alabama, Huntsville, led by Drs. Roy Spencer and John Christy.  

Below is their plot of lower atmosphere temperatures based on satellite data since 1979.

You will notice a slow rise in temperature over the past 50 years, by about 1°C.  This is probably mainly due to increasing CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

You will also notice a lot of ups and downs on shorter time scales, which are mainly due to natural variability.  Of particular note is the big spike in warming in 2023, followed by rapid COOLING during the past few years.

The media and climate activists made a lot of false claims that the sudden warming in 2023 was due to human-emitted greenhouse gases, but have been very silent about the recent cooling.

Clearly, the cooling is not consistent with their "messaging" about global warming.

The truth was that the huge 2022 Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption ejected massive amounts of water vapor (a VERY potent greenhouse gas) into the stratosphere, which led to the spike in warming.  

The rapid warming had nothing to do with human emissions, with the global temperatures naturally declining as the excessive water vapor was slowly removed from the system.

Recently, the media and advocacy groups have been going bonkers about the recent March heatwave over the U.S., claiming with great certainty that it is the result of human-caused global warming.

These claims are easily disproved:  the heat wave was highly localized and some nearby areas were much colder than normal.

I can demonstrate this by showing you the temperature differences from normal (climatology) over the entire planet for March using the satellite observations noted above.  Red, orange, and yellow indicate warmer than normal temperatures, and blue indicates colder-than-normal temperatures (see below).

You can see the large area of warmer than normal temperatures centered over the western U.S.  No doubt about it.  But temperatures even MORE extreme on the COLD side to the north, from Alaska through northern Canada. 

Global warming advocates are often talking about the Arctic warming due to climate change, with sad stories about dying polar bears.   But in this case, a broad swath fo the Arctic was much colder than normal.

In the tropics temperatures were near normal. 

It is easy to determine the real cause of the temperature anomalies:  a highly perturbed upper-level flow pattern (see 500 hPa pressure level, about 18,000 ft, below).     Red indicates ridging or enhanced high pressure aloft, blue indicates troughing (ehanced low pressure).

The flow pattern was highly perturbed over North America.  Research is very clear that global warming does not contribute to such a pattern. 

 

Let me end with the Golden Rule of Climate Change.

The more extreme the anomaly from climatology (the average climate), the LESS likely it is that human-forced global warming is the cause.  This was true of the warming in 2023 and is true for last month's warm event over the western U.S.

Human-caused global warming is real, but it is slow and modest in magnitude, and global in scope.

FINALLY, Some Warm Weather

After a cool, wet March, we are finally getting some warm spring days.   

 Warm and dry enough so that you will be comfortable without a jacket.    Highs reaching the upper 60s and some sun. 

Perfect weather for that bike ride, hike, gardening, or simply a pleasant talk.

The National Weather Service National Blend of Models (their most skillful product) is going for 62F on Saturday, 65F on Sunday, and nearly 70F on Sunday in Seattle, before cooling down on Tuesday.

Eastern Washington will be considerably warmer, reaching nearly 80F in the Tri-Cities on Monday.

To provide more detail, here are forecast temperatures for 5 PM Sunday afternoon from the UW high-resolution model. 

Upper 60s and 70s from southern Puget Sound to Portland, and also warm in the lower Columbia Valley

By Monday afternoon at the same time, western Washington and Oregon have cooled a bit, while the Columbia Valley has warmed.

All this warming is associated with a transient upper-level ridge of high pressure that will build over the area this week (see below, for 500 hPa...about 18,000 ft, red indicates high pressure).

By Tuesday morning, the high pressure retreats westward and a trough of lower pressure (blue colors) passes to our north, bringing the cool down.

Enjoy.

Seattle Times Provides Deceptive and False Information on Washington State Drought

Truth should be important to the Seattle Times. 

Professional integrity and honesty should be a priority.  

Providing the public with accurate information on an important public issue should be paramount.

But when it comes to issues dealing with climate, the Seattle Times has descended into advocacy, hype, and exaggeration, unsupported by facts and actual science.   

Articles written by the Seattle Times Climate Lab, which receives financial support from climate advocacy groups, are the most concerning, as illustrated by the deceptive, unfactual article published yesterday.

The article, How bad is Washington's summer drought going to get?, starts with a large picture of a major reservoir (Lake Keechelus)--see below

The picture shows a completely empty lake, and the legend describes a "depleted Lake Keechelus" and that this total lack of water is a "familiar scene."

Totally deceptive and wrong.  The truth is that the lake is nearly full, as shown by an image total from a WSDOT cam:

Don't believe your eyes?   The official measurements of the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation indicate the lake was 95% full two days ago (it is now 96%):

Still not convinced?  Below is a plot of this year's lake level (blue line) versus normal (red line).   

Lake levels are now WAY above normal....in fact, exceeding the normal maximum levels in early summer.  So high, reservoir managers reduced the level a bit to avoid flooding.

So the headline claim of the article was wrong...and they had to know this.

I am hardly warming up regarding the ST tall tales.   Much of the article is factually wrong.

For example, it tells us:

"This summer is expected to be especially hot and dry, too, Mellor pointed out. El Niño conditions are moving in from the tropics."

This is nonsensical.   We are still in a La Niña (see below), and the transition to Neutral and then El Niño conditions will only occur during the summer.

Blue colors indicate temperatures below normal

Even more important, Northwest summer precipitation has very little correlation with El Niño and La Niña--even if it were in place.   

This figure from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, which shows the precipitation anomalies from normal for an El Niño summer, shows this clearly.

Don't believe NOAA and only trust online AI?  Here is what Gemini gave me:

Key Correlations & Current Trends

• Weak Summer Link: Meteorologists note that El Niño does not have as significant an impact on the region in the spring and summer as it does in winter.

Lack of water for hydropower?

Then the article warns about the lack of water for Seattle hydropower, and particularly the Ross Reservoir.   Turns out both rainfall and snowfall have been relatively healthy in the North Cascades this winter, and the reservoir level is now much higher than the previous year (see below).  I note that the Ross Reservoir almost filled last year (see below).

Seattle's power generation will have sufficient water!

Perhaps the writer of the Seattle Times scare piece should have checked the best long-term forecasts.   

Here is the latest prediction of summer precipitation from the best (European Center).  WETTER THAN NORMAL OVER WESTERN AND FAR EASTERN Washington.  Normal for the rest.

The Seattle Times is failing our community, providing demonstrably false information regarding climate change.   Hyping and exaggerating climate threats.  

Providing such wrong information is hurting our community, resulting in very poor decision-making, including the waste of billions of dollars (e.g., the CCA).