Will 2026 Be An Above-Normal Wildfire Year in Washington State?

Virtually every spring, some media and activists claim that the upcoming summer will bring above-normal wildfire activity over the Pacific Northwest because of global warming/climate change (see example from last year below).  

The Seattle Times Climate Lab consistently predicts above-normal fire risks

So what does real data actually say?    That will be the topic of this blog.

Let's start with actual wildfire information:  the total wildfire acreage over Washington State's WA DNR (Department of Natural Resources) lands for the last decade (see below).

You will note no upward trend.    Also note that the last few "drought"  years have had below normal wildfire area.   

If we compare the Washington State wildfire area against temperature or precipitation across the state, you will note a poor correspondence (see below).  Clearly,  other elements (e.g.,  fuel availability, wind, lightning, human ignition) are important as well.

So what about this summer?  

An important supporting element for fire is the availability of surface dry fuels (e.g., dry grasses), and there is a website (the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Fuelcast website) that has this information.

The image below shows the latest on the availability of surface fuels such as grasses and flammable vegetation (yellow is below average and green above average).   

Lower than normal over much of eastern Washington but above normal over the Cascades, including its eastern slopes.    

So good news for the lowlands of eastern Washington and the western slopes of the Cascades.  A cause for concern over the upper eastern Cascade slopes...where there was lots of vegetative production by the bountiful precipitation this year. 

The latest European Center seasonal precipitation forecasts are a mixed bag.  For April/May/June, predicts drier than normal conditions over western Washington and the Cascades, fostering a drying of vegetation and surface debris.

On the other hand, it is predicted to be wetter than normal conditions for the critical July to September period when most of our fires occur.

For temperature, the EC prediction is for warmer-than-normal temperatures (see below), which contributes to drying.

But as shown earlier, temperature and precipitation are only part of the story for local wildfires.

Lightning is critical, particularly since it often ignites fire in remote areas.  

Strong winds are essential for the biggest fires, contributing to ignition and rapidly spreading the flames. 

Human ignition is important, and that depends in part on the willingness of utilities to maintain lines and de-energize when advisable.   

Fuel availability is significant, and we have a good idea now of the vulnerable areas (eastern slopes of the Cascades).

To put it concisely,  a simple argument that global warming causes more fires is simplistic and generally wrong, and a more nuanced and data-driven analysis is critical.