The Northwest atmosphere did not get the message about El Nino this week, with colder-than-normal temperatures and substantial snowfall in the mountains.
For example, a veritable army of snowplows moved through Snoqualmie Pass this morning
See the video here.
Stevens Pass was quite snowy this afternoon
The visible satellite image this morning was a classic, showing instability showers offshore, the result of cold Arctic air passing over much warmer water.
The radiosonde sounding (balloon-launched weather instruments) at Forks indicated a freezing level of around 1300 meters above sea level (around 4200 ft). The snow level can be as much as 1000 ft below that.
No wonder the passes got snow.
With the cold/snow conditions over the region, several mountain locations have had above-normal snow amounts the last few days (see below). The blue dots indicate stations with over 150% of normal snow!. That does say much this early in the season.
The forecast of the temperature anomaly from normal shows for the next day indicates that the whole Northwest will be colder than normal (blue and green colors).
There has been a lot of loose talk about coastal Kelvin waves and warm ocean conditions off our coast, but our water temperatures are actually quite close to normal (see below).
And colder-than-normal conditions will continue over the region for the next week!
The result will be additional early-season mountain snow, as shown by the predicted accumulation through Sunday afternoon (below).
There has been a lot of loose talk about coastal Kelvin waves and warm ocean conditions off our coast, but our water temperatures are actually quite close to normal (see below).
The warmer-than-normal coastal waters are mainly to our south over central and southern California and offshore far to our southwest.
Finally, the models are emphatic that there will be a major weather regime change in a week, when a series of potent atmospheric rivers will aim directly at our region (see below). Should really help to fill reservoirs.
Quite a contrast to classic El Niños that take the moisture plumes into California.
Quite a contrast to classic El Niños that take the moisture plumes into California.
All in all, good news for water resources in the Northwest.
Cliff. What has happened to the weather loops page on the uw website? It's really nice to be able to follow the model forecasts, but it frequently locks up when accessing it. It has happened over the years, to be sure, but the last few months has seem it frequently lock up for no apparent reason. The satellite and radar information is especially missed when it locks up! Thanks for looking into it.
ReplyDeleteGood news, better put the snow tires on, might actually need them
ReplyDeleteAnyone who's lived in whatcom county for decades knows that the weeks leading up to thanksgiving are flood periods courtesy of atmospheric rivers. The Nooksack river flooding which totally cuts off Hennegan Road between Bellingham and Lynden has occurred around Thanksgiving, so many times that I lost count, who cares about water temperatures offshore this is a historical precedent. After turkey day the pattern eases
ReplyDelete