Godzilla-Low Pressure, Heavy Rain, and Drifting Snow Ahead for the Pacific Northwest

Northwest meteorological winter is about to begin dramatically.    

Heavy rain and massive mountain snows are on the way.  Reservoirs will begin to fill.

Those worried about El Nino drought will be able to relax.  

The forecast from the NOAA global model (the GFS) for the next week predicts a stunning persistent upper-level low along our coast, illustrated below by the average 500 hPa heights (think of it as pressure at 18,000 ft) through next Saturday. 

Blue colors indicate the deep low, which will bring showers and cool temperatures to our region.

But now prepare yourself.  

Below is the forecast for the subsequent 7 days. 

Mamma Mia!  

An intense upper-level low over the northern Gulf of Alaska.  The PERFECT configuration to moisten our region.

Consider the total precipitation predicted over the next two weeks by the NOAA model is shown below.

 Unbelievable. Massive amounts, with over ten inches of liquid water in some mountain locations.  Way more than normal for the period.

Snowfall in the mountains will be extreme.   Not feet. Yards of snow at some elevations.

I know what you are saying.....this is the U.S. global model. What about the uber-skillful European Center AI model?

Same solution.  Very wet over the next two weeks.  Let me show you.

First, the total precipitation for the same period.   Huge amounts in the mountains. 

And like the NOAA forecast model, bountiful snow.

I noted in earlier blogs that extreme El Nino years often enjoy good water resources in the Northwest.   No drought. The next two weeks may be the start of this favorable outcome.