With all the worry about the current Super-El Niño, it is comforting to see the substantial snow and precipitation of the past week, with forecasts of much more to come.
As I noted in an earlier blog, the very strongest El Niños tend to produce normal precipitation over our region and near-normal snowpack.
Let's start with the substantial recent snowfall in our mountains.
The visible satellite image on October 21 showed practically no snow:
The image this morning was very different with snowy mountains (and some low-elevation fog and stratus over Puget Sound.
Here is a closer view for comparison.
Not convinced?
Below is the NOAA estimate of the water content of our snowpack on October 21 and yesterday. Went from essentially nothing to substantial amounts. Wow.
To really drive this home, here are the current percentages of normal for our regional snowpack.
Way above normal across the region.
The upcoming model forecasts are very optimistic regarding our water situation.
The highly skillful European Centre 10-day precipitation forecast (see below) predicts substantial precipitation exactly where it is needed.
Lots of precipitation over western Washington, Oregon, and BC, with substantial amounts over northern CA, where there are large reservoirs.
Heavy precipitation over western Colorado and the Southwest, which should help fill the Colorado River reservoirs.
The 15-day forecast totals are even better and will greatly enhance the water situation in California next year (and the potential for CA skiing this year)
As shown below, although most CA reservoirs are at or above normal, the large ones in the northern part of the state are a bit below normal.
Why? The low snowpack last year resulted in a greater draw of stored water last summer. The substantial rain forecast for the next few weeks should bring them up to very close to normal.
To end this encouraging picture, the office NWS 8-14 day and 3-4 week precipitation forecasts are provided below. Both show above-normal precipitation for the Northwest.
Enjoy a relatively dry Sunday and Monday.... it won't last. 😌
Good to hear. At the present moment, at 1:13PM Sunday, no sign of the sun, yet. It's still cloudy here in Tacoma. Am hoping for some good rains, perhaps a storm or two as well, but we'll see.
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