Extroardinary Rain and Wind in Hawaii: Did El Nino Help?

Although in the tropics, Hawaii rarely gets hit by hurricanes.  

But yesterday, the unusual happened:  hurricane Lala approached, producing stunning precipitation and winds.

The visible satellite imagery yesterday afternoon and evening shows a well-defined eye (indicated by red arrows), with the storm passing westward just south of the Big Island

This morning, we only have an infrared image (since there is no solar radiation!)  This image (indicating cloud temperature) shows the low center to the south of Oahu (red arrow) and a blow-up of convection (thunderstorms) to the northeast of the low center (blue arrow).

Precipitation totals so far have been stunning.  

During this event, some parts of the northeast slopes of Hawaii received over 32 inches.  In contrast, the "Kona" side only got an inch or two.   

All the result of strong, moist northeast winds forced by the storm.  Moist air that was forced to rise by huge volcanoes on the island.

Impressive precipitation contrast on Maui as well, with some locations receiving over 30 inches.

Then there were winds, driven by the huge pressure gradients (change of pressure over distance) associated with the hurricane.

Consider the maximum gusts yesterday over Hawai.   Some locations on the NW side of the island gusted to over 80 mph! Strong winds near the ridge crest as well

Similar gusts were found over the NE side of Maui downstream of the West Maui Mountains.  

I should note that the strong downslope winds on the West Maui Mountains resulted in the destruction of Lahaina from wildfire a few years ago.

Hurricanes are relatively rare in Hawaii, because the water temperatures are generally too cool (you read that right).  During the past 50 years, only one hurricane (Iniki, 1992) has made landfall on a Hawaiian island.

Hurricanes need warm water, generally at least 26.5 C (around 80F), and generally Hawaiian waters are cooler than that.

However, this year there is a strong El Nino, with much warmer water than normal in the tropical Pacific  (see sea surface anomaly map (differences from normal) below)

A close-in view of the sea surface temperatures shows the details.  Need to be in the greeds, yellows, or orange colors.   Just made it!  

Finally, I should note that hundreds of thousands are without power on the islands right now, with the Big Island substantially in the dark.

Not a good time for a Hawaii vacation!

Was Low Snowpack a Significant Contributor to Recent Northwest Wildfires? The Answer is Clearly No

This summer, wildfire activity east of the Cascades has been above normal.

Several media outlets and activist websites are claiming that this year's low snowpack is a major cause of the wildfires (see example below).

Poor mountain snowpack and early melt-offs have translated to low reserves, 

drying out grasses, trees, and shrubs that easily ignite and spread wildfires.

The facts are clear: such claims are wrong.  The below-normal snowpack has had little impact in promoting recent wildfire activity.

To demonstrate this, let's consider the most impactful fire this summer, the Little Giant Fire near Lake Chelan, which was initiated by lightning on July 16 (see map below).  The location of ignition (shown with a fire symbol) was at approximately 5000 ft.

We can get a good idea of snow evolution at the fire from the nearby Trinity Snotel site (see below).

The snowpack (snow water equivalent) at this location this year (black line) was generally below-normal (green line), but NOT a record low (lower red line).  

If you look closely, the snowpack at this location melted out on May 2, when on average it melts out on May 11th.   So, the snow was lost about 9 days early.   

But that does not matter for this fire, since the fire occurred OVER TWO MONTHS (July 16).  There is a large body of literature showing that only days to weeks are needed for surface fuels to become dry enough to burn after the snow has melted. 

Furthermore, most of the water from snowmelt goes into streams and rivers and is lost to the region.

Thus, by mid-July there was plenty of time for the ground and vegetation to dry out, even in a normal year with full snowpack.

Want more proof for different fires?   

Two other big fires were found to the east near the Columbia River:  the Kailser Canyon and Molrite fires (see below), which started in mid-July

There is a nearby Snotel site at Gold Mountain (4500 ft, see map)

Below are the snowpack observations at this location (again, the black line is this year, green line indicates normal).  

Way below normal snowpack!  The snow melted out around April 8 rather than the normal of April 18.  

Not important for a fire that would start THREE MONTHS LATER.

Still not convinced?  Let's consider the largest fire, the Sinlahekin blaze near the Colville reservation in north-central Washington (see map).

There are two Snotel sites near the fire, and I will pick one of them (Salmon Meadow, 4460 ft, with the horizontal line in the map below).

This site had an abysmal snowpack, melting out on April 5, when normal is May 2.    But normal melt-out was well over two months before the fire and thus the early melt-out was not relevant.

In summary, the regional snowpack melted out a week to a month early this year near the big regional fires. 

 But that is immaterial for wildfire because the mid-July fire initiation was over two months in the future.

Even with normal...or ABOVE NORMAL... snowpack, the melt out would have occurred two months before the fire, allowing more than enough time for the soils and fuels to dry out.

In short, the low snowpack made little positive contribution to the large fires that were initiated by lightning in July. 

Finally,  to provide independent evidence of this lack of connection between Washington State snowpack and fires,  the plot below presents the regional snowpack on April 1 (blue line) and the subsequent fires over the region (red line).

There is little correlation between them.

Why are some folks exaggerating the role of low snowpack on regional wildfires?  

Perhaps because they are trying to find a way to blame the burns on climate change, rather than invasive grasses, poor forest management, human land disturbance, and human ignitions.  

No Major Heatwaves in Our Future

Good news for those of you who dislike heatwaves:

There are none forecast over the Pacific Northwest for the next 10 days.

Importantly, we are running out of time to experience a serious heatwave in our region.

First, let's define what is meant by a heatwave.  

According to the WMO (World Meteorological Organization), a heatwave occurs when there are more than five consecutive days during which the maximum temperature exceeds normal by 9F or more.

We are now past the peak period for major Northwest heatwaves, as shown by the plot of record high temperatures (red shading) from June 1 through October 1 below.  Today is down by the red arrow.  

The really high temperatures really decline after mid-August.

Why?  Because daily solar radiation is declining relatively rapidly now, and the days are getting shorter (see plot below)

The current forecasts indicate no heatwaves for much of the rest of the month.

Consider the National Weather Service forecast temperatures for Seattle Tacoma Airport (below).  During the next ten days, temperatures are expected to climb to around 80F before declining in the mid-70s.

Yakima warms up into the low 90s before dropping into the mid-80s.  Close to average.

The NOAA 6-10 day temperature outlook is for generally normal conditions over the western US.

And their precipitation outlook is for wetter than normal conditions.

In short, at this point it appears that our summer is heading for an unremarkable end, with near-normal conditions.  

You want weather excitement?  Head to Hawaii, where a potent tropical storm will approach this weekend (see below)

As the storm moves through, heavy rain will hit many of the islands (see below).

California Wildfire Acreage is Well Below Normal With Little Upward Trend: Why is the Media/Climate Activists Not Telling This Story?

This year, wildfire acreage in California has been well below average and is being eclipsed by the lightning-initiated wildfires in the Pacific Northwest.   The nearly fire-free California situation is evident satelite/ fire image from yesterday (active fires shown by the orange dots).

Lots in Washington and Oregon, very little in California.

In fact, according to official CALFIRE statistics (shown below), the total acreage this year is LESS THAN HALF of the five-year average!

The media and climate activists have been quite silent about this.  

Can you imagine if the wildfire acreage was twice the average?   The supposed connection with climate change would be on the front page.

In fact, some media and others are actively pushing the unsupported narrative:

Ready for the Truth?

Let's look at the actual wildfire data for California!  

Consider the actual burned area data for the past 30 years (below).  A period in which global warming has been occurring.

You see a large trend?   I don't.  

There was a short period in the early 2020s when unusual meteorology drove some big fires, but the wildfire numbers have declined since then.

This lack of a long-term trend in California wildfire activity actually occurred during a period of increasing human ignitions of wildfires (e.g., from powerlines, arson, etc.).

In fact, the best estimates are that humans have initiated roughly two-thirds of wildfires in California since 1992 (see below).  I suspect these ignitions have had little to do with global warming.   At the same time there there has been an invasion of non-native flammable grasses.

The bottom line is that there is no rapidly increasing globe-warming-induced wildfire trend in California.  Such claims are demonstrably false.   

Finally, let me note that you can not believe AI inquiries on this topic.

Want proof?  I asked Google Gemini whether California was having a low wildfire year (see below).  Its answer was the OPPOSITE of the truth.   

I then told it was wrong, and it admitted it was fibbing

I wish the Seattle Times, YouTube Channel climate activists, and others would be willing to look at the data and acknowledge they have been providing inaccurate information regarding the climate/wildfire connection.

An Extreme Lightning Event Started the Recent Northwest Wlidfires: Did Global Warming Play a Role?

On July 15/16, a massive lightning storm initiated several major wildfires east of the Cascade crest.

As shown below, this was one of the most extreme lightning events in Northwest history.

This story has escaped the notice of the media.   Furthermore, several media outlets (including KING-5 news and the NY Times) and podcasters/Youtube channels have claimed that Northwest lightning has increased over time due to climate change.  (see example below) 

Actual lightning data show that such claims are demonstrably false.

The data is clear: the major wildfires that occurred during the past month have little to do with climate change, but were associated with a very unusual "lightning storm" of extraordinary intensity.

As I will demonstrate below, there is no upward trend in Northwest lightning, which indicates that global warming is not a major driver of regional lightning frequency.

The Data

There are two major lightning networks that cover our region and beyond: the UW World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) and the Vaisala National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN).

I first asked UW Professor Robert Holzworth and Scientist Katrina Virts, who run the WWLLN network.

I was amazed to learn that WWLLN detected 5,440 strokes over the PNW on July 16, 2026--the most of any July day in the period of record (since 2013, after which the observing network was stable).

Lightning Strikes on July 15-17.

No wonder there were a lot of fire starts! 

 Many are concerned about global warming, so I asked the WWLLN folks to see a plot of lightning over time.  Katrina made a plot of the number of lightning days per month over the Pacific Northwest (below):

The lightning numbers are DECLINING.  And this is a period of substantial global warming. Global warming is NOT contributing to more lightning over our region!.

To get an independent check on these lightning numbers, UW Research Meteorologist Jeff Baars used a completely different lightning network (NLDN), which goes back until the late 1980s.

For this network, July 16 was the third greatest July lightning day since 2013. And examining a far longer period, we see that there is no increasing trend in regional lightning...in fact, a modest decline.

So what should you take away from all this?     

(1) The July 2026 lightning event was unusually extreme in terms of the number of lightning strikes, greatly increasing the number of fires.

(2)  There is no observational evidence that global warming/climate change is contributing to more lightning strikes (and thus wildfires) over the region.

The latter observational result suggests that some modeling studies, which suggested the opposite, are in error. Clearly, they possess some flaws in their methodology or approach.

The Smoke Situation is Rapidly Improving West of the Cascade Crest: But the Wind Threat to the East Remains

 As expected, air quality is rapidly improving west of the Cascades, with the transition complete by tomorrow morning.

You can see the changes in the west in the visible satellite imagery at 11 AM yesterday (top) and today (bottom)

The smoke plumes are now directed to the east, as the winds have reversed to westerly (from the west).

Low marine clouds have pushed up the coast and invaded coastal locations.    Air quality in the Portland area is hugely improved.

The air quality map at 11 AM (below) shows good conditions on the coast and NW Washington (green).   Moderate air quality over Puget Sound country, with some smoke trapped at low levels.  Such  low-level smoke will mix out today

There is s good air quality at high elevations in the Cascades, which are above the shallow smoke layer.

To illustrate the good conditions in the Cascades, below is the view at Paradise, on Mt. Rainier (about 5500 ft).   Nice blue sky!

The latest NOAA HRRR smoke forecasts predict a profound improvement in low-level smoke between today at 11 AM and tomorrow at 3 AM

And REALLY better by Saturday at 5 AM:

But there is a potential problem: much stronger winds on the eastern side of the Cascades: winds that could rev up some of the fires burning now (such as Little Giant).

The forecast winds for Friday evening could gust to over 39 knots over some areas of the eastern slopes of the Cascades.

And the predicted westerly winds in Ellensburg will increase substantially later tomorrow, according to the UW high-resolution modeling system:

Such winds will make fire management more difficult and promote fire motion to the east.

Need to watch this situation carefully.