Professional integrity and honesty should be a priority.
Providing the public with accurate information on an important public issue should be paramount.
But when it comes to issues dealing with climate, the Seattle Times has descended into advocacy, hype, and exaggeration, unsupported by facts and actual science.
Articles written by the Seattle Times Climate Lab, which receives financial support from climate advocacy groups, are the most concerning, as illustrated by the deceptive, unfactual article published yesterday.
The article, How bad is Washington's summer drought going to get?, starts with a large picture of a major reservoir (Lake Keechelus)--see below
The picture shows a completely empty lake, and the legend describes a "depleted Lake Keechelus" and that this total lack of water is a "familiar scene."
Totally deceptive and wrong. The truth is that the lake is nearly full, as shown by an image total from a WSDOT cam:
Don't believe your eyes? The official measurements of the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation indicate the lake was 95% full two days ago (it is now 96%):
Still not convinced? Below is a plot of this year's lake level (blue line) versus normal (red line).
Lake levels are now WAY above normal....in fact, exceeding the normal maximum levels in early summer. So high, reservoir managers reduced the level a bit to avoid flooding.
So the headline claim of the article was wrong...and they had to know this.
I am hardly warming up regarding the ST tall tales. Much of the article is factually wrong.
For example, it tells us:
"This summer is expected to be especially hot and dry, too, Mellor pointed out. El Niño conditions are moving in from the tropics."
This is nonsensical. We are still in a La Niña (see below), and the transition to Neutral and then El Niño conditions will only occur during the summer.
Blue colors indicate temperatures below normal
Even more important, Northwest summer precipitation has very little correlation with El Niño and La Niña--even if it were in place.
This figure from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, which shows the precipitation anomalies from normal for an El Niño summer, shows this clearly.
Don't believe NOAA and only trust online AI? Here is what Gemini gave me:
Key Correlations & Current Trends
Weak Summer Link: Meteorologists note that El Niño does not have as significant an impact on the region in the spring and summer as it does in winter.
Lack of water for hydropower?
Then the article warns about the lack of water for Seattle hydropower, and particularly the Ross Reservoir. Turns out both rainfall and snowfall have been relatively healthy in the North Cascades this winter, and the reservoir level is now much higher than the previous year (see below). I note that the Ross Reservoir almost filled last year (see below).
Seattle's power generation will have sufficient water!
Perhaps the writer of the Seattle Times scare piece should have checked the best long-term forecasts.
Here is the latest prediction of summer precipitation from the best (European Center). WETTER THAN NORMAL OVER WESTERN AND FAR EASTERN Washington. Normal for the rest.
The Seattle Times is failing our community, providing demonstrably false information regarding climate change. Hyping and exaggerating climate threats.
Providing such wrong information is hurting our community, resulting in very poor decision-making, including the waste of billions of dollars (e.g., the CCA).
This March has been very wet over the western side of Washington State.
How wet? Read on.
At Bellingham (through March 29), it has been the wettest March of ALL TIME....going back to 1950... with roughly 6.5 inches.
No wonder that the I5 is closed just south of Bellingham due to landslides:
Seattle has had the sixth-wettest March since the late 1940s (below). This is in stark contrast to the past several years.
The latest NOAA soil moisture analysis indicates that western Washington has the highest soil moisture in the nation.
What about the difference from normal of our current soil moisture? Are these values unusual? The following map shows the differences from normal (in mm). Western Washington and the Cascades have wetter-than-normal soils.
Tuesday will be dry, but another wet system will come in on Wednesday and early Thursday.
The forecast total through Friday morning shows substantial precipitation across the region, with the heaviest amounts exactly where they are needed over western Oregon.
And this system will be cool enough that substantial snow will fall over the Oregon Cascades, where it is really needed.
Good news for water resources and for those who like it damp:
The truth is that such claims are not true. Snowpack variability has very little correlation with the area of local wildfires.
Other meteorological conditions are FAR more important than snowpack regarding wildfire acreage and the large wildfires in our region.
The facts are very clear. To demonstrate the lack of relationship between snowpack and wildfire area, below is a plot of April 1 snowpack (the standard measure)--shown by the blue line-- and the annual acreage of burned area--red line-- for Washington State for 2002 to 2025.
You will notice very little correlation between the two lines. Snowpack has ups and downs, perhaps a slight downward trend. Wildfire acreage has wild excursions that generally are not associated with changes in snowpack.
Of the 24 years shown, only ONE (2015) had a combination of low snowpack and large wildfire area. But it was NOT because of snowpack.
The year was unusual for other reasons, with a crazy, persistent summer ridge of high pressure over the region, that produced very anomalous high temperatures--something shown below, and lack of summer precipitation. 2015 was the hottest summer on record in our region.
The facts are very clear.
Snowpack has very little to do with regional wildfires. High temperature during the summer is a major contributor, since it contributes to drying of surface fuels. High winds are a contributor to some of the biggest fires, since winds can fan and spread the flames, and can contribute to fire ignition (e.g, from wildfires). Low summer relative humidity is a contributor. Low summer precipitation can contribute since that leads to low fuel moisture.
Snowpack has little to do with our local wildfires. During a normal year, the snowpack has generally melted by early summer over the lower to middle elevations where most wildfires occur. Remember, most of wildfire are in mid-summer to early fall. Interestingly, above-normal snowfall can contribute to MORE wildfires if it provides moisture for more vegetative growth. Vegetation that later dries and becomes flammable.
Why is the Seattle Times and others providing obviously false information to the public about snowpack and wildfire? Even Google's AI knows better:
The recent rain has done something amazing: filled many of our reservoirs to full, months ahead of time
Levels of fill that normally require snowpack melt during spring.
Consider the all-important Yakima Reservoirs (below), which are now at levels normally only reached in mid-June. Amazing.
In Seattle, the reservoir levels exceeded normal maximum levels in June, and they released some water to ensure sufficient capacity to handle flooding:
What about Spada Lake, the massive storage reservoir for Everett? It is now full! (blue line is this year, brown line is full)
To provide a specific example, there is the extended forecast for the Yakima River. Black is the predicted for this year. Much above normal (green line) into May and near normal during mid-summer.
Bottom line: I am cautiously optimistic about our Washington State water resources this summer and that there will be no drought.
It is now officially spring, and a good time to check on how unusual this winter has been.
Meteorologists often do so by reviewing conditions over the water year (October-now), and I will do the same.
First, consider Seattle's accumulated precipitation during the present water year (green line, observed; red line, climatological average).
We have been a bit above normal overall! Wet periods in December and March.
Yakima, on the east, is similar, with a water year total near normal. There is a reason I have been discouraging the drought talk.
Temperature? See below, with blue being observed, tan showing the normal range, and red/light below showing the record highs and lows.
At Seattle, temperatures have been unremarkable, with periods of above and below normal warmth. No records broken.
At Yakima, there is a clear warm bias this year, particularly in December and recently.
These two warm periods are the reason the snowpack is now below normal for the Yakima Basin, but why the reservoirs are well above normal in water stored.
I know some folks are interested in climate change, so what do the long-term trends for water year temperatures and precipitation look like? (October through February shown below)
Consider the situation for Western Washington from 1896 to the present.
For temperature, this year was warmer than normal but not a record. Over the past 130 years, there has been a slow warming of roughly 1.5 F.
A modest global warming signal.
In contrast, a slight increase in precipitation....too small to be noticeable or significant.
Because of the two warm spells, the snowpack over the region is about 60% of normal (see below).
Let me stress, this is mainly about the warm/wet periods associated with atmospheric rivers and Kona Storms, NOT global warming, as being claimed by some media and amateur YouTube channels.
There has always been a close connection between Hawaii and Washington, and that relationship was on display over the past few days.
Kona does not kid around
A strong Kona storm, with powerful, southwesterly flow, rammed into the Hawaiian Islands, producing intense rainfall. Check out the totals over the past 48 h around Oahu (below)
Many locations received more than 10 inches, with some reaching as high as 20 inches. Major flooding has resulted.
This moisture continued toward the Pacific Northwest (see the total atmospheric moisture from yesterday morning below). As you know, these moisture plumes are also called atmospheric rivers.
When that moisture reached our region, it was forced to rise on our terrain, resulting in heavy precipitation. To see how much...check out the 72 hr totals shown below.
Wow. Several locations received over 6 inches,
As a result, several of our rivers are at major flood stage, with the National Weather Service issuing serious flood warnings on BOTH sides of the Cascades.
The NOAA River Forecast Center is predicting serious flooding on many local rivers (see below).
For example, the Snoqualmie River near Carnation is now at major flood stage (see below), something that is unusual this late in the season.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, much of the heavy rain/flooding area is "abnormally dry." I have some colorful language to describe their analysis, but this is a family-friendly blog. I will Kona deal with them 😁
30 years ago, providing a forecast of greater than 4-5 days would result in smirks from responsible forecasters.
But times have changed, and today there is substantial skill in the second week.
Let me prove that to you. The plot below shows how skill declines over time for the American Global Model (the GFS in blue) over the Northern Hemisphere. 1.0 indicates perfect skill by the measure considered (something called anomaly correlation). Anything above roughly 0.6 indicates useful skill.
So according ot this measure, there is skill through 8 days! More than a week!
Buit is better than that. Today, we have enough computer power to run many forecast runs each cycle (called ensembles), and the average of these many runs is even more skillful.
The US ensemble (GEFS, red color) has skill out to 10 days!
The European Center forecasts are even better, adding about another day of useful skill--11 days. Machine learning prediction adds another day.
So what has contributed to the improved skill? The most important contribution is three dimensional obserservations over the entire planet! No data voids to ruin forecasting skill.
Plus, more computer power leads to higher resolution simulations, better physics descriptions, and the ability to run ensembles of many forecasts.
Now that I have convinced you of the potential for extended prediction, what is the forecast for Seattle over the next ten days? Boring highs in the 50s every day (see below). If you want real warmth, you will have to head to Southern California.
The Hawaiian Islands are experiencing one of the wettest Marches on record, and some of that moisture is reaching the Pacific Northwest. Day after day for an extended period.
Just to wet your appetite, here are the precipitation totals for the last 72 h. Huge totals, exceeding 20 inches, over the southern portions of the Island of Hawaii. On location got to 31 inches. Substantial flooding and other damage have occurred.
This has been a Kona storm event with strong, moist southwesterly flow reaching the islands, instead of the normal northeast (from the NE) trades. This is associated with a deep, high anomalous low to the northwest of Hawaii, known as a Kona Low. The upper level map below from Saturday illustrates this feature (the purple colors indicate the highs/pressures are much lower than normal.
This type of pattern directs tropical moisture to the northwest, as illustrated by the water vapor pattern tomorrow morning (red indicates large amounts of water vapor in the column of air).
This pattern is going away.
Want to be impressed? Below is the total precipitation over the next ten days. You won't have to go to Hawaii.....Hawaiian moisture and showers will be coming to us.
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