Extremely Wet Fall in the Northwest: Will We Break the October Record?

With all the interest in windstorms lately, there has been a lack of discussion of the real weather anomaly of late:  the extremely wet fall we have been having so far.    Atmospheric rivers, fronts, and post-frontal showers have pummeled our region, with large precipitation totals in the mountains.  All this after the wettest winter in Washington history last year.   Ducks are very happy.

Let's start with percent of normal precipitation for the past 30 days over the western U.S.   Much of Washington and western Oregon had more than 200% of normal, with large areas ABOVE 400% of normal.

A plot of observed precipitation (red line) and normal (blue)  at Seattle Tacoma Airport shows the  increasingly soggy story.  August and September were drier than normal, but around 7 October the atmospheric spigot was turned on and precipitation totals have surged above normal.

As of 5 PM  today--Thursday, October 20th--  Seattle's October precipitation total is 7.38 inches, 5.53 inches ABOVE normal for the month.  If you are still watering your garden, stop.   The monthly record is 8.96 inches and we surely have a shot at it, with 1/3 of the month to go.

With all this rain, Seattle's reservoirs are starting to refill rapidly (red line in figure below).

We are probably going to get a break on Saturday, but it looks like wet conditions will return next week (see NOAA Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day forecast below)

With all the rain, most of our local rivers are running well above normal:

And the short-term drought indicators show wetter normal soil conditions.

With all this rain in the Northwest, the official US Drought Monitor still shows drought over Oregon and the SE corner of Washington (yellow and orange colors).   Puzzling.

So, if you are a human, find your umbrella and Goretex jacket.  If you are a duck, smile and enjoy.

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