The latest series of model runs are in and to me they suggest we need to scale snow totals down over Puget Sound to 2-6 inches. In other words, not a record even over the PS area.. Folks this is a very difficult forecast. Everything depends on getting the track of the low exactly right...first to decide where the rain/snow changeover will be and secondly to get the amount of precipitation right.
Most of the models are in agreement that the low will go south of us...thus, more confidence that it will be pretty much all snow north of Olympia. But having the low go south is a Faustian bargain...it reduces the intensities over us. Right now it looks like 2-6 inches over Puget Sound (6 inches near Olympia, 2 inches near Everett) is the most consistent forecast with current model forecasts. Tonight will will have a better idea. As I mentioned before, a shift of a hundred miles or so for the low makes a huge difference on the forecast for us....a low that has developed over the past several days and over thousands of miles. It is amazing we can even attempt to do this.
Here is the latest 24-h snowfall totals ending 4 PM Wednesday. Big gradient of snow up the Sound but LOTS of snow over the mountains and SW Washington, before it turns to rain there.
If the predicted path or intensity of the incoming system changes, this forecast will change. It is sort of like aiming a rifle...you gyrate around until you lock on. The storm shifts 100 miles north...ST headline could be true.
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Coleen...yes I edit them sometimes rather than doing a completely new blog. I suppose I could do a new blog each time...anyway, this is supposedly an informal, personal blog about weather...cliff
ReplyDelete@ mjgrota If they say WWJFD (What Would Jim Foreman Do) then they should be bright YELLOW wristbands. ;)
ReplyDelete@Colleen
ReplyDeleteHere, just south of Everson, we have 10" on the ground. Funny how a few miles can make such a big diff. It's been very interesting listening to my police/emergency scanner all day. While the snow may not be impacting everyone equally, there are still plenty of people having a tough time out there. Just beacuse a small geographic area isn't in bad shape doesn't mean the next neighborhood or stretch of freeway is clear sailing.
I just hope the high winds don't come to pass, and esp no power outages. It's 17.1 right now, but my hens are nice & cozy under their heat lamp. They don't care much for the back up kerosene lanterns.
Keep up the great work Cliff. It's your blog, do it your way ;)
http://imgur.com/mJUiI
ReplyDeleteSo AIRPLANE! in the forecast....
Thanks, Cliff! We appreciate the time you take to post these updates!
ReplyDeleteHI Cliff....we a awaiting your anxiously awaiting your 9 pm update. Our family is now addicted to the radar loop and will be sending in a donation. Who knew weather could be so much fun? Our 6 and 9 year olds know you by name now. Cary
ReplyDeleteAbout 2 and a half inches of snow a couple of miles south of Hansville at 300 ft elev. Most of it fell late this morning, although we had light snow here throughout the day
ReplyDeleteInterestingly, the "WunderMap" doppler loops often showed the convergence zone precip starting a mile or so to the east and continuing to move eastward. They didn't seem to pick up the light snow falling here.
Dr. Mass,
ReplyDeleteI agree with Colleen about the changes you make to your posts. Obviously things change in this realm all the time and we all appreciate your effort to keep your blog and forecasts accurate and up to date.
However, when you make edits to your blog without noting that you've made edits (simply by adding "edit" or "update" in front of the changes) it makes it hard to keep my trust in this blog up. It just looks shady.
Basically, this isn't just a personal blog about the weather anymore. Many people and news outlets use it as a source for news and accurate information. It would be nice if you were upfront about changes and revisions to already-published posts so we could know that what we are sharing is verified and verifiable.
Thank you.
We had a bunch of hail fall this evening here near Kingston. Instead of "Snowmageddon" or "Slushmageddon", we should call it "Hailmageddon".
ReplyDeleteKW
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ReplyDeleteHave a snow-phobe houseguest so am watching closely the Port Angeles forecast. The watches and warnings website leads to here: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/wxstory.php?wfo=sew 5-10" Our forecast at forecast.weather.gov adds up to about 6-7 inches. Can't wait for your 9 PM maps.
ReplyDeleteThanks for all your work, Cliff.
No snow between Silverdale and Seabeck. :( I'm going out to dinner.
ReplyDeleteLET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW!
I may be mistaken, but looking N from my perch in Columbia City, I think I just saw a flash of LIGHTNING!
ReplyDeleteCan you elaborate on the expected winds in the Puget Sound area? I was surprised to see a KOMO blurb that the ~35 mph expected winds would be northerly. I was expecting the usual SW winds. If so, I'm surprised we are not hearing anything about wind chill dangers (with or without snow.
ReplyDeleteJoanna, I never said or implied that others aren't impacted or dealing with more challenging conditions. Believe me, given our location and line of work, we have it tough regardless. : )
ReplyDeleteLooking forward to the next update here...Still looking pretty calm and unremarkable here, but I wouldn't mind seeing some more (manageable!) white stuff.
As of 8 pm Tuesday night, 3.5" in west Olympia near The Evergreen State College. Love your blog--keep up the great work!
ReplyDeleteWhy has this post been DRAMATICALLY ALTERED to eliminate references to the Seattle Times' sensationalist headlines (and sidebar regarding the entry of students to UW programs)?
ReplyDeleteCliff just looking at radar and the way it looks it be snowing in seattle around 2am wondering if the storm coming in a little futher north then expected this after noon.? Also it"s crazy cold up north temps around 10 in bellingham and looking like the cold marching south as well any chance this to meet and we end up with insane amounts of snow.? Iam no weather man but cold and warn come togather can make amonster storm
ReplyDelete"Coleen...yes I edit them sometimes rather than doing a completely new blog. I suppose I could do a new blog each time...anyway, this is supposedly an informal, personal blog about weather...cliff"
ReplyDelete-- There is another option, as Charlie noted above. Simply identify your edits with the date and time and the word "edit". Everything else Charlie said I agree with completely too, so won't repeat. I'm sure as an academic you are well-versed in principles of journalistic integrity. I very much appreciate your blog and the tremendous amount of work that goes into it. I've referred many people to the blog, and have been passing along the info about your missing dog as well. I hope she's found soon!
Dr. Mass,
ReplyDeleteI realize this is your personal blog, and that you are providing your observations free of charge, and that I'm choosing to read those observations on my own, AND that I'm free to get my weather observations elsewhere.
Nonetheless I would appreciate it if you held yourself to a higher journalistic standard than most 99% of most journalists.
I would appreciate it if you personally called me whenever a change in the forecasting models necessitate a change in your previous posts. An apology would be nice as well. I'd also like a snow-covered pony.
Hey Cliff, tell those guys at UW to close the god damn campus, I don't want to go to school!! Also, you Weather class is awesome,
ReplyDeleteAlright, nothing going on in Seattle yet, and it's 9:08. Let's see the update!
ReplyDeleteAcme(Mt Baker Ft Hills)-Confirming Mary Ann's report of 15" on the ground this morning. Another 3-4 fell this afternoon. 9pm-starry sky and crisp at 18 degrees.
ReplyDelete11 Deg F. @ KBLI way below forcast lows, I wonder what this means for the model results?
ReplyDeleteThanks for the blog, I have found it to be helpful on an ongoing basis.
ReplyDeleteI would agree that it would be helpful and clearer if you just added "update" to a blog post and then put new or edited information above the original post. It is kinda confusing to try and figure out what may have changed without that distinction.
Last I checked both Tacoma and Olympia were in the Puget Sound????
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