April 13, 2024

A Drier Than Normal Spring over the Pacific Northwest

I had to water some new plants today because the last few weeks have been relatively dry.   So I was curious.....how dry has it been in our region?

Below is the March 22-April 12th precipitation in Seattle for the past 75 years.  This year we had 1.5 inches over the period when 2.5 inches is more typical.  

Not a record dry year by any means, since some years had only about 0.3 inches for the same period.  Interestingly, early springs have gotten a bit wetter over the past 75 years, so one can't blame the dryness on global warming.


Another reason you can't blame global warming is that just down the coast, southern California is experiencing one of the wettest springs on record.   To demonstrate this, look at the March 22-April 12 total precipitation in Los Angeles for the same period (below).

A very wet year and much about normal.


To give you some spatial perspective,  below is the percentage of normal precipitation for the past month.

Much wetter than normal in southern California (blue and purple colors), but drier than normal over western Oregon and Washington. Very wet in Arizona.

This pattern, dry north and wet south, is associated with a persistent atmospheric pattern this winter and spring, with a strong trough of low pressure off California.  

The forecast upper level (500hPa pressure, about 18,000 ft) is shown for today at 5 PM---exactly what I was talking about.  A strong low parked over California.


For those hoping to save on their water bills, the forecast precipitation through Thursday morning is more of the same.  Wet California and a few light showers over western Washington and Oregon.

I am getting totally bored of this.






April 11, 2024

More Typical Spring Temperatures Will Save Washington and California's Cherry Crop this Year

Last year was a cherry disaster for the West Coast and the key driver was the cool/wet weather late last winter and spring in California.  

This resulted in a very bountiful but late California cherry crop that became available at the same time as the larger Northwest cherry harvest, which was early because of a few warm weeks in May.


With too many cherries available simultaneously, cherry prices plummeted and several Northwest orchards left their cherries on the trees.

Cherry armageddon!

But this year should be much better for cherry growers and lovers of the red fruit such as myself.  

Why?  Because California is warmer this year and the Northwest should be cooler in May.   

A bountiful and extended cherry season is promised.  Let me show you why.

The figure below shows the average temperature for February 1 through April 10 at Modesto, CA (in California's Central Valley) from 1950 through 2024.

 
2023 was way below normal, while this year is near normal.    Thus, the California cherry crop will be earlier this year because of the warmth, and with plenty of rain, there should be a bountiful harvest.  

Typically, the California cherry season runs from mid-May to early June, providing lots of cherries for the Memorial Day holiday weekend.   Expect the same this year.

So what about Washington State?    With El Nino rapidly weakening, there is no reason to expect a major warm period (above normal) in May.   

But what about what has happened in Washington state during the past months?  Below are the average temperatures for Feb. 1 through April 10th for Wenatchee, WA for 1950 through 2024.  

This year's temperatures are slightly above normal and last year was slightly below normal.


At this point, there is no expectation of a May heatwave like last year.  In fact, the latest 46-day forecast from the most skillful system (European Center) suggests cooler-than-normal conditions through the end of May (see forecast below).  That could extend the cherry season into August.


Although my professional expertise is in the area of weather prediction, I will go out on a limb and suggest a bountiful cherry harvest in both California and the Pacific Northwest, and that we will have an extended period of sweet cherries in our food stores.

I can't wait.😁



A Drier Than Normal Spring over the Pacific Northwest

I had to water some new plants today because the last few weeks have been relatively dry.   So I was curious.....how dry has it been in our ...