The Atmosphere is Providing Water Where It is Needed

There is a deep connection between meteorology and religion, and there are times when one wonders about divine intervention in our weather.

This is such a time.

Last year brought low snowpack for most of the West.  

Some were worried about water shortages and poor crops.   

But well-timed rain and substantial reservoir storage saved the day, with agriculture doing well and sufficient water available for human consumption.

Divine intervention?

This fall started out relatively dry, and some folks were worried, including a certain local newspaper.

But again, higher powers intervened.   During the past 72 hours, there have been substantial amounts of precipitation over the region (see below)

 A potent atmospheric river was the cause of our wet bounty (see below).  

Local reservoirs are refilling, including some low ones on the Olympic Peninsula (such as Wynoochee Lake below)

Other regions have been in need, and divine intervention has been and will be evident.

For example, California, the source of many of our fruits and vegetables.

Well-timed rainfall last year filled the reservoirs, but snowpack was low.   As a result, some of the big reservoirs are now below normal, such as Shasta and Oroville (see below).

Fortunately,  the current forecasts promise significant intervention, with massive amounts of precipitation over the Golden State during the next ten days (see below).   Remarkable.

This wet bounty includes LOTS of snow in the Rockies and over the drainage of the Colorado River (see below). A miracle.

Not getting religion yet?   What about British Columbia, which has suffered from a lack of precipitation this fall?    

Vancouver's reservoirs are quite low.

Fortunately, impressive amounts of precipitation are forecast for southwestern BC through next Monday morning

The water situation is rapidly improving on the West Coast.  The forecasts are highly promising.

There is only one thing to say about it: 

Forecast Triumph

Yesterday, a strong front, associated with strong winds gusting to 40 mph or more, moved through the region, resulting in numerous power outages.

As I will describe below, numerical weather models predicted this event with great skill, something we could not have done 20 years ago.   

This is a triumph of modern weather prediction technology.

Let me demonstrate this to you.  

Below is the radar image around 4 PM Saturday, based on the radar observations from the Langley Hill radar near Hoquium.  An intense radar return was apparent offshore (the thin yellow and red line, indicated by the red arrow).   This is the front.

Fronts associated with a narrow, cold frontal rainband were first described by  UW researchers, such as Professor Peter Hobbs and associates.

Even more impressive is a video of the cold front approaching the coast (from a wonderful phone app called RadarScope).

Here is a forecast of a simulated radar image, made 24 hours (from 4 PM) before the event is shown below.  It was made by the UW WRF model run by my group.  

Almost perfect.  Very strong simulated front.

A closer-in view is below.

A forecast made 60 hr before the event was virtually the same.  Strong front in the same location

A forecast made on Thursday evening, showing the strongest near-surface wind gusts, indicating strong winds over the region.  Strong enough to worry about.

The winds for Seattle made for Seattle City Light as part of the UW WindWatch system were clearly accurate, showing the threat of strong wind (the black dots are the strongest observed with the city; the gray and colored lines indicate model forecasts)

The models were very, very clear.  

There was a prediction of 30-45 mph winds over the city.  And that means power outages, particularly early in the storm season.

Such an emphatic forecast by the models was the reason I blogged about it on Friday, making it clear that some would lose power.

In fact, over 100,000 customers lost power over western Washington last night (see below).

And over 46,000 customers in Seattle lost their lights.

This kind of skillful forecasting occurs time and time again, based on highly skillful weather model forecasts.

Another reminder that it is no longer appropriate to make fun of forecasters and weather models.   😀

No longer appropriate