California and Oregon Have Been Getting More Precipitation Than Washington: Should We Care?

When it comes to precipitation along the West Coast, there are always winners and losers.   

Sometimes the jet stream, the conduit of storm systems, heads north into Washington and BC, and we are wet, while California is dry.

At other times, the jet stream heads southward to California, and they get the precipitation, and we are dry.

On relatively rare occasions, a huge ridge of high pressure covers the entire West Coast, so everyone is dry.

Over the past 60 days, we have generally had a pattern of dry north and wet south (see below).

This pattern has been particularly apparent over the past week, with central California getting hit particularly hard.

 

Thus, California has enjoyed the precipitation it needs to sustain agriculture and its large population... a very good thing. For example, all of California's reservoirs are all running above normal (see below), and the state's overall snowpack has increased substantially during the past month.

Why this recent precipitation distribution with wet California and a dry Northwest?  

Mainly, because we have recently seen a repeated pattern of a deep upper-level trough extending southward down the Coast, as shown by the upper-level flow pattern below (for Tuesday morning).

I should note that there is no reason to suggest that such patterns have anything to do with global warming.  The research is clear on this.    It is natural variability.

It is also clear that we expect the jet stream to move northward during late winter, and the atmospheric "fire hose" will return to our area.

What about the next few weeks?

The forecast precipitation total through next Wednesday, which I have some confidence in, shows moderately wet conditions from central CA to British Columbia, with the heaviest precipitation over southern Oregon.

Ensemble (many forecasts) from the US systems suggests around 30 inches of snowfall at Stampede Pass in the WA Cascades over the next week:

Beyond that period, forecast skill declines, but the major forecasting systems bring heavy precipitation into our region, so that the totals through early March get impressive over WA and BC (see below).

That also means a lot of snow in our mountains.

In short, I would not pay much attention to the gloom and doomers on social media and the climate change claims of some advocacy groups regarding our precipitation this year.  Reservoirs are in very good shape, and substantial precipitation can be expected during the next few weeks and months.

Modified Arctic Air Reaches the Northwest, Colder Air Is Yet to Come

The coldest air of the season has reached the Pacific Northwest, and some western Washington locations are already reporting precipitation in the form of ice pellets!

You can see the impact of the cold air on visible satellite imagery taken on Monday afternoon (see below).  As frigid cold air from Alaska and northern British Columbia moves over the warmer water of the Pacific, an unstable situation develops that produces cumulus convection......towering cumulus clouds with brief showers.

You can see the cumulus showers on the satellite image (white blobs with clear spaces between them), and they are aligned with the wind direction (red arrows).

Why does cold air moving over water produce showers?  

 Because it creates a large lapse rate, a change of temperature with height, that causes the atmosphere to convect, with upward motion producing clouds and precipitation.

You could see the convective showers coming onshore late Monday afternoon, as viewed by local weather radars:

As the atmosphere cooled and showers moved in, snow started to fall in the mountains, such as at  Hurricane Ridge at around 5000 ft in the Olympics. 

Late Monday afternoon, the freezing level was about 1600 ft in the Olympics, which means the snow level was roughly 600 ft.  It will decline further over the next few days.

During today (Tuesday) and Wednesday, very cold arctic air will push into southern British Columbia, with some of it leading into western Washington through the Fraser River valley.  

The situation Wednesday AM is shown below, with the purple and white colors indicating the coldest air.

Wow.  The Arctic will be getting very close to us.

A closer view on early Thursday AM (below) shows very cold temperatures over Washington...cold enough for lowland snow.  The only thing missing will be precipitation.

The latest UW model forecast showing predicted snowfall totals through Thursday morning does show some lowland snow from Tacoma southward.  Details uncertain, but there is a good chance that some lowland folks will see some flakes, with some localized minor accumulation.

Lowland snow will occur in the Willamette Valley as well, which is more isolated from the warming effects of the Pacific.

Finally, expect particularly cold air moving southwestward down the Fraser Valley into Bellingham.  This is illustrated by the ensemble of many high-resolution forecasts at Bellingham (below).  Temperatures will drop way below freezing.  Windy as well.  

Some wind chills may decline below 0F.  BRRR.