As a new service of this blog, I will indicate the areas where powerlines might be damaged by the approaching storm. You can't say you don't get cutting-edge products on this site. 😊
Perhaps the forecasts might help local utilities pre-position necessary assets.
The latest European Center sea-level pressure forecast is for a very respectable 977 hPa low with a ring of strong winds wrapping around it (shown at 4 AM Saturday, winds in knots).
No, this is not some doomsday machine and, no, it is not a BOMB CYCLONE. I will not hype this storm like some amateur sites and certain local media.
Now the serious part....where will the power outages be, if any?
My general experience is that power outages during December and January generally get started when gusts surge above 40 mph (35 knots). Definitely, some losses when gusts exceed 50 mph (43 knots), and expect lots of blackouts when winds surge above 60 mph (52 knots).
Of course, there are subtleties. Outages early in the fall require less wind to damage trees and, thus, the powerlines. Unusual directions (like the easterlies of Nov. 19) do more damage.
But with all that said, let's examine the prediction winds of the best local model around (the UW super-high resolution WRF model). I will show you some new graphics that we have developed, showing the strongest wind prediction over a period.
For the period through 4 AM Saturday, there is potential trouble on the Washington coast and northwest Washington (see below). I particularly worry about Sequim to Port Townsend to central Whidbey Island). The San Juans and Bellingham could see some flickering lights. Some modest potential for the western foothills of the Cascades but NOTHING LIKE Nov. 9.
Extending the period through early Sunday morning, we see an enhanced risk over NW Washington and along the coast. Potentially strong downslope winds on the NE slopes of the Olympics....but few people live there.
Here in Seattle, it will get blustery, but I don't expect a lot of wind damage.
A good source to check is the City of Seattle WindWatch website (a project of my group), which shows the strongest winds over the city from a variety of forecast sources (below). A max gust in the low 30s mph looks like a good bet. Those of you in Seattle who bought generators during black Friday/Monday will probably not get a chance to use them.
The strongest winds over the northwest interior of western Washington will probably be on Saturday morning around 10 AM. Below are the forecast gusts at that time.
If you are in purple or blue, charge your batteries. Red....you might have some issues.
Announcement
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I will hold a special online zoom session at 10 AM on Saturday for Patreon supporters. I will discuss the storm and answer your questions....assuming my power does not go out!