Major Errors in Seattle Times ClimateLab Article on Sea-level Rise

My frustration with the often false, misleading, and exaggerated information pushed by the Seattle Times ClimateLab is frequently expressed in this blog, but the tall tales provided this week is worth a rating of at least four Pinocchios.  

The story suggests that the Samish Tribe of NW Washington has to "race" to document their heritage sites because rising sea level and "intensifying storm surges" remove any chance to  understand their significance."   

In reality, none of this is true.

Using the map in the article, here is the region of Samish tribal lands (see below).  

The Seattle Times claims that 

Already, ocean waters around Puget Sound have risen some 9 inches since 1899 and climatologists expect the waters to rise perhaps a foot or more by 2050. This will cause coastal flooding and erosion, both of which will also be made worse by intensifying storms throughout the region.

This is totally wrong and contradicts observations and the best science.

First, there is no evidence...none...that storms are intensifying in the region.  All studies, including one done by the UW Climate Impacts Group, contradict this.  I have done research on this subject as well, including a careful study of climate model projections.   

NO INCREASE IN STORMS.  The Seattle Times' claim is in error.

Second, the Seattle Times used the wrong sea level rise information.  

Sea level rise is NOT uniform over western Washington and is much less in the northern waters where the Samish tribe is located.

Why?  Because of the effects of the glaciers, which were thicker and heavier to the north.  The weight of glaciers pushed the land down...and it is still rebounding.

Let's consider how much sea level has changed at the Lummi Reservation near Bellingham.  There is a NOAA measurement site right there at Cherry Point (see below).

There is NO SEA LEVEL RISE.  In fact, sea level is FALLING slightly.  

Going further south, here is the sea level change at Friday Harbor.  Sea level is rising there...but much less than claimed by the Seattle Times.

How much?  About 1.2 mm a year, or about 4 inches in 86 years.  You will note the sea level trend is not increasing over time.  No acceleration due to global warming.

A good estimate of the rise of sea level over the Lummi domain would be an average of Bellingham and Friday Harbor, so about 2 inches in 86 years.  

That is about 0.023 inches per year.    

The Seattle Times suggested that sea level will rise about a foot by 2050 over Lummi lands.

Reality, based on the best observations, is 0.57 inches (.023* 23 years).  Yes, about HALF AN INCH.

This is what the Lummi Tribe will have to "race" against.

False information, exaggeration, and hype.  This is what advocate-funded "journalism" gets you.  

The Seattle Times is failing our community by promoting such misinformation.

 

March in June

 If you were thinking of going on a hike on Friday or Saturday, think again.

Early spring weather---cool and wet--will take over a few days starting on Friday.

Consider the predicted temperatures in Seattle (below).  Only 61F on Friday and 63F on Saturday.  Normal highs should be in the low 70s.

But if you want a real shocker, consider Stampede Pass at 4000 ft in the central Washington Cascades.  Highs only in the mid-40s and lows in the 30s on Friday and Saturday.

Are you sitting down?  The models are going for substantial SNOW above 5000 ft (see accumulated snowfall through Saturday evening below).

Even normally warm Yakima will get chilly, with lows in the 40s on Saturday and Sunday, with highs only reaching around 70°F for a few days.

Precipitation will be substantial for this time of the year, with the mountains getting hit particularly hard (see the predicted totals through Sunday at 5 AM below).  An inch in some places.

But the REALLY crazy precipitation will be in Oregon, where up to 3 inches will fall.  Nuts.

Why such unseasonable cold and wet weather?    An unusually strong upper-level Pacific low will move over our region on Friday and Saturday (see below)

This cool, moist period will help suppress any wildfire starts, resulting in a continuation of a BELOW-AVERAGE wildfire season in Washington State.   

Do me a favor....don't tell the Seattle Times ClimateLab folks about this....it will ruin their day.