The Rain Cometh

The number one question I have been asked the past few weeks is certainly this:  when will the rain return?

And I can answer that now: the middle of this week.

Today was another nice warm day, with the origin being a strong upper-level ridge over the West Coast (see upper level map at 5 AM this morning, below).  Yes, another ridge.

This ridge was associated with low level easterly flow that pushed more of the smoke from the smoldering Bolt Creek fire into some communities on the eastern side of Puget Sound country (see noon satellite image below)

You can view the air quality implications wutg  the Purple Air map around 3 PM (orange and red are worst).   Not as bad as last week, but some haze is apparent on the east side.   Some have smelt smoke.

Tomorrow will be the last warm day in the sequence.   Everything changes on Wednesday, as a moderate upper-level trough moves in (see upper-level map at 5 AM Wednesday).  And it won't be the last.

Light rain is forecast for Wednesday into early Thursday, with much cooler temperatures.  The map below whows the 24-h totalys ending 11 AM Thursday.    Typical early fall precipitation event.

It will dry out for a few days after that and then another system is expected next Tuesday (see 24-precipitation ending 5 AM Wednesday)

The summer has been drier and warmer than normal, something I will discuss in a subsequent blog.  Enjoy the warmth while you can....

The Perfect (Smoke) Storm and the Weekend Weather Forecast

Here in Seattle, the smoke was amazingly thick on Wednesday morning, only exceeded by the extreme event of Sept. 2020 and equaled by the smoky period in summer 2018 (see small particle levels at Lake Forest Park over the last 5 years ago).

The intense smoke was associated with a dying fire (Bolt Creek) in the Skykomish Valley.  

How could this be?

The explanation is found in my podcast (see below).  The "perfect storm" of meteorological conditions.

And talking of perfect, consider the weather conditions over the Northwest this weekend.

ANOTHER ridge of high pressure will develop over the West Coast this weekend (see upper level map , 500 hPa--about 18,000 ft late Sunday below).  And you know what that means.... warmth and sun.

But this time of the year we can't get really hot...so highs will only get into the upper 70s in the west.  Nearly perfect.  It won't last though...cooler temperates for mid-week, but little rain in the forecast.  My podcast goes into the details.

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