The Thunderbird Returns to the Northwest: Substantial Precipitation Ahead

 There are many Native American stories about the origin of Northwest storms and rain, with my favorite being about the Thunderbird, a huge avian living in a cave of the Olympics.  When it left its high abode to hunt for its favorite prey (the Killer Whale), storms, wind, and even lightning would occur.

If there was ever a month for Thunderbird flights, it would have to be November.

A tenth of an inch represents a decent wetting, and the frequency of that amount at Seattle Tacoma Airport is shown below.  There is a clear peak:  in mid-November!   By December, there is already a bit of drying!

With this climatology in mind, let's look at the latest forecast for accumulating precipitation.

With a weather system coming in tonight and tomorrow, the total through Thursday morning is substantial, particularly on the Olympics and the coastal mountains.  

By Friday morning, the Cascades will get to enjoy the wet fun with 2-3 inches of rain.  Note the profound rain shadow over the San Juans in the lee of the Olympics.

The next week will bring much more rain, with the totals through Friday morning, 14 November, getting to 4-5 inches in the mountains.

And far more, by Tuesday, Nov. 18th.   The Thunderbird will be busy.  This is enough to result in localized river flooding and substantial progress in filling local reservoirs.

An interesting aspect of the next two weeks will be the absence of major landfalling storms, with persistent low pressure staying offshore.

To illustrate, below is the sea level pressure forecast for tomorrow (Wednesday) morning.  Huge low offshore.

Five days from now, another low will be offshore. No major power outages to be expected, with this pattern.

No "bomb cyclone" action in our nearshore waters like last year.  At least not yet.

A relief for many.

Washington is the UFO Capital of the U.S. Is it Our Weather?

 A series of reports have come out recently demonstrating that Washington State is NUMBER ONE in the number of reports per person of UFOs (Unidentified Flying Objects).

Below is the data.  During the past year, there was one sighting for every 1021 people in Washington. 

In contrast, in Louisiana UFOs are observed less than a third as often, something perhaps explained by the greater interest in Mardi Gras, alligators, and spicy gumbo.

Certain Washington (and Oregon) locations are favored for extraterritorial visitation, particularly east of the Cascade Crest and over the Olympics (see below, darker green indicates more events), 

There are three reasons why Washington State could have more UFO sighting reports:

 (1)  UFOs really are more frequent here. 

     Perhaps extraterrestrials like our salmon or are interested in Boeing. Perhaps they think Washingtonians are particularly interesting.   I would doubt it.

  (2) Washington State has a mental health issue.  

 Some political commentators might agree with this.  Perhaps folks in this state are so worried about the future of the world and the current administration that they yearn for intergalactic intervention.

(3) Our meteorology often produces features in the sky that look like UFOs.  

This is the one I would put my money on. 

It all started here.

Did you know that the UFO craze started HERE in 1947, when a pilot of a small plane  (Kennith Arnold), flying between Chehalis and Yakima, spotted a group of "saucer-like" objects over Mount Rainier?

 

A faculty member in my department analyzed the situation and demonstrated that Arnold actually saw lenticular clouds forced by Mount Rainier.

Such clouds form when relatively moist air is forced over a mountain barrier and then oscillates up and down, with upward motion producing the lens-shaped cloud (see schematic below).

As an aside, during a presidential debate on October 20, 2017, presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich admitted to seeing a UFO while staying at actress Shirley Maclaine's home near....... Mount Rainier.

Dennis Kuckinch

The Pacific Northwest, and particularly Washington State, is probably the best place in the US to see lenticular/mountain wave clouds.  

You can see them here on many, many days--either by viewing the sky or on satellite imagery.   

Why so frequent here?

We have big mountain barriers of sufficient height.

We have strong winds approaching the mountains.

We have air that is sufficiently moist to produce clouds.

Cloud like this:

Or this

Or this

So consider the meteorological explanation of our first rank in UFO sightings.

Or if you prefer: