Do I Believe in Global Warming?

Again and again I am asked: 

Do I Believe in Human-Caused Climate Change/GlobalWarning?

A very strange question.  Scientists rarely, if ever, use the term believe.

We never use the term " believe " when we apply Newton's laws of dynamics, the first law of thermodynamics, or any of the basic principles of atmospheric physics.   I have attended hundreds of scientific meetings and not once did a scientist use the term belief in describing human-caused global warming.

Science is not religion...at least it shouldn't be.  Conclusions should be based on accepted scientific principles and data, not beliefs.  

Religon

It appears that global warming has become like a religion to some people, replacing more traditional beliefs.  Apparently, a way to fill their lives with meaning and purpose.

As in many religions, there is the prediction of a catastrophic "end time", with total destruction, if people don't follow the approved "way".    

Self-appointed prophets describe the proper path that will lead to life (some shown below),

I made a decision 15 years ago to stand up against those who distort the science. 

Those who mislead the population.  Those who spread unnecessary fear.  Those who benefit financially from the exaggeration and lies.  

And woe to a person who stands against the apocalyptic climate vision.  They are cast out and rejected.  Worse than wrong.  Evil

I should know.....and have felt the wrath of name-calling and being cast out (by the Seattle Times and KNKX) for remaining with the science.  

So what are my views on climate/change and global warming?  

Quite honestly, I am pretty much in the mainstream.

I should note that I have published several dozen papers on climate issues, from modeling to data-driven studies.  I studied climate science under leaders of the field at the University of Washington, and worked on climate research at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) under one of the leading climate scientists in the world (Stephen Schneider, see below), with whom I published several climate papers.  I have had many NSF research grants on climate subjects.

Climatologist Stephen Schneider and I at NCAR

So what is my view, based on decades of research and study of the climate?

The planet is slowly warming, and increasing greenhouse gases due to humans are a major contributor

A planetary warming of about 1 C  over the past 50 years due to such gases (see plot below)

Most of that warming (about 2F) is due to humanity's greenhouse gas emissions.

A modest, steady warming of the planet.  

What about extremes?  

The warming is causing fewer cold waves, which is saving lives.  But there are worsening heat waves.  Since far more people die from cold than heat, fewer people are dying from extreme temperatures as the planet warms.  That will be true for a while.

The science and data indicate that hurricanes have not become more frequent as the planet has warmed (see below), but the strongest hurricanes may get more powerful by the end of the century.

Interestingly, even with global warming, deaths from extreme weather have declined substantially (by 90% or more), even with increasingly populated areas (see below).

This is due to greatly improved ability to adapt to climate extremes (e.g., air conditioning) and profoundly improved weather forecasting.

The scientific evidence and demonstrated societal impacts are clear:  human-caused global warming is a modest problem.  It is not an existential threat to humanity.

As a weather/climate scientist, my views are well within the mainstream.  

But unlike some, I am willing to take on the exaggerations of the "believers" and media that are happy to misinform folks to get more clicks or to secure funding from climate activists (like a certain local newspaper in Seattle). 

This blog gives me a tool to give my readers the truth.

I have paid a substantial personal price by taking on the "believers" (e.g., KNKX, Seattle Times, name-calling by commenters on this blog, name-callers on some amateur YouTube sites), but the price paid by society, panicked by exaggeration and falsehood, is worse.

Religion, not Science

The Autumn Weather Transition is Occurring

Autumn doesn't wait until September 22 in the Pacific Northwest.   

During most years, there is a transition to cooler temperatures and the return of rain during late August, and this year will not be different.

A plot of average temperatures at SeaTac Airport (below) illustrates my point.  Today (indicated by the blue line) is near the transition point.

This change is not only forced by changes in solar radiation intensity, but also by changes in the large-scale pressure systems that control our weather.

Let me illustrate these large-scale changes by showing you a series of average upper-air (500 hPa pressure, about 18,000 ft) monthly weather charts.

During mid-summer (July) there is a big ridge (dark red) over the Southwest and a weak trough centered to the north of us.  The jet stream (located where the colors change rapidly) is north of Washington State.   

By September, the situation is very different, with the southwest high pressure weakening and moving inland, and a trough (lower pressure) moving towards the west coast.  The weather implications of these changes are profound.

Consider what is going to happen during the next 15 days using the best forecast available (the European Center AI forecast), looking at the same type of upper level chart.

During the next 5 days, the upper-level ridge over the Southwest is apparent.

During the next 5 days, the SW ridge weakens and starts to shift eastward, and a strong trough moves into our region

And the map for the subsequent five days is downright scary with a very deep trough of low pressure (purple color) offshore:  cool and wet for us!

The implications for our weather are profound.   The European Center temperature forecast for Seattle shows highs falling into the lower 70s and 60s:   

Rain will return as shown by the forecast below for two 7-day blocks of time into the future.

No major heatwaves are predicted in these model runs, and it is rapidly getting too late in the season to get one.

Enjoy the "fall transition" in August.  One of the treats of living in the Pacific Northwest.

PS: The latest radar shows showers moving in!