Was January's Low Snowfall the Result of Global Warming? The Facts are Clear

As you can tell from my previous blog posts, I am really concerned about deliberately deceptive media stories and false information being distributed by certain groups.

Well, tall tale distributors have been working overtime recently, suggesting that the poor January snowpack over the Northwest is mainly the result of human-caused global warming.

These claims are demonstrably false.

Yesterday, the Seattle Times had a story, which stated:

The record-low snowpack is mostly due to how warm the West has been, which is connected to climate change from the burning of coal, oil, and natural gas, several scientists said.

Public Radio Station KUOW is on the same page as the Seattle Times, noting that:

With the global climate changing rapidly due to fossil fuel pollution, scientists say we should expect more warm winters like this one.

I could give you another dozen of these, but you get the drift:  global warming "advocates" are jumping all over the lack of mid-winter snowfall, claiming the warming from increasing CO2 concentrations gave us a dry, warm month that resulted in minimal snowfall.

It is easy to show that these claims are false.

The warm, dry January was produced by a very strong (and unusual) upper-level high-pressure area (see below), with colors indicating the difference from normal.  Red colors are crazy high pressure.

The location of this high pressure was in the perfect position to suppress Northwest snow, drying us out and forcing sinking and warming air.

There is no evidence that global warming causes more high-pressure systems in winter over the region.   

For example, climate model simulations don't predict them.

Would you like more proof?  Below is a plot of sea-level pressure on the Washington Coast over the last 30 years at Quillayute, on the northwest Washington coast.

No upward trend in high pressure in winter.

But I can disprove the global-warming explanation for the lack of January snow in other ways.

If we plot the January precipitation totals on the western slopes of the Cascades since the late 1800s (below), there is no long-term trend.  There would be if global warming were building high-pressure ridges more frequently over our region

What about temperature?  Below is a plot of temperature over the Cascades during the period that global warming has been most significant (since 1975) 

A slow increase by about 2F over the period, with several Januaries being warmer than this year (such as 1981).  This modest warming is NOT the explanation for this January's low snowfall.

Finally, to really put the global warming claims to rest, here are the April 1 snowpack totals over the Northwest mountains.  Only a minimal decline over time.

The bottom line is this:  the poor January snowpack over the region was predominantly associated with an unusual, persistent, high-pressure area over the region, not global warming.

The slowly warming planet is only a minor contributor to the snow deficit (perhaps 1-10% of the deficit).    

The claims by some of the media regarding the global warming origin of the poor January snow are more than disappointing; they represent deliberate misinformation.

Announcement

I will hold a special online Zoom session at 10 AM on Saturday for Patreon supporters.  Will answer questions and talk more about the snow situation.

Precipitation and Cooler Temperatures Return to the West Coast

The persistent ridge of high pressure over the western U.S., which brought generally dry conditions and less snowfall, is now history, with persistent low pressure and wet conditions taking its place.

Good news for those concerned about water resources in the West.

To get some perspective, the figure below shows the difference from normal precipitation over the past 90 days across the West Coast.

Near normal over much of western Washington and normal to wetter than normal over central and southern California.  But substantially drier than normal over western Oregon and northern CA.

A few days ago, the pattern shifted, and a plume of moisture moved into Oregon (see satellite image on Sunday)

The result has been healthy precipitation totals just where we needed them (see total for the past 48 hours below).   Some locations got more than 3 inches.

During the next week or so, one strong trough after another of low pressure will be moving into the West Coast, bringing rain and snow.

The maps below will show heights at 500 hPa (think of it as pressure at 18,000 ft) at various times during the next week or so.  Differences from normal are shown by colors (blue, lower than normal pressure, troughs;  red, higher than normal pressure, ridge).

Tomorrow at 4 PM.  Major trough to our south.

Next Monday, another strong trough of lower pressure

Thursday, 20 Feb.  ANOTHER strong trough

The Sunday after.....ANOTHER trough.

These troughs will bring a lot of water to the West Coast, with big stuff to our south, where they really need it. Only modest precipitation over Washington State.

Below is the UW model precipitation total through next Thursday.  Western Oregon and California will be sodden.   We will only get wet. Really heavy precipitation over the Sierra Nevada.

The latest NOAA Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day forecast is for cooler than normal and wetter than normal conditions over the western U.S 

It appears that this pattern shift has staying power, and the water/snow situation over the western U.S. should improve substantially during the next few weeks.