Some of you in Ballard and northwest Seattle complained that you hardly saw much snow , while luck denizens of Capitol Hill, perhaps 5-6 miles away, got 3-4 inches in places. Here are a few pictures from Capitol Hill, courtesy of Joseph Chan, a UW undergrad (taken around 2:20 PM).
You notice the Seattle DOT plow on the job! A lot of snow.
It turns out there was a band of heavy precipitation--oriented southwest to northeast- that remained quasi-stationary and crossed the southern part of the City. Here is a radar image at 2:32 PM...see the band?
And here is the estimated 6-h snowfall ending 4: 37 PM from our new SnowWatch application:
Big snow dump in the mountains during the second period! But the bigger story is what happens on Wednesday as a strong warm front approaches.
Dare I show it to you?
Here is the 24-h snowfall ending 4 PM on Wednesday. More inches...and most of that falls in the lowlands in the morning...before temperature surges and it starts to rain.
SLUSHMAGEDDON. A vision that should scare any mayor. And one I am sure will put a smile on the face of KING-TV's Jim Forman. If the warm/low goes farther south than forecast there could be much more snow. Wednesday has the potential to be a very major snow event, but the uncertainty is still large....more tomorrow.
This setup looks really bad for flooding on the coast if the heavy rains later in the week pan out.
ReplyDeleteWe got no snow in Magnolia. :(
ReplyDeleteIn the NWS discussion said they were going to drop extra sondes. I dunno if it solved anything.
ReplyDeleteThe GFS is still considerably further north with Wed. warm front compared to the NAM, Can. and SREF.
I dunno which to root for. Warmer/ more precip or colder/drier side. Pick your poison.
Cliff do you see less snowy exit for this pattern..
ReplyDeleteScott Sistek just tweeted that the models are "still a mess,"-meaning that there's still no agreement among them.
ReplyDeleteLots of NOTHING in Hazel Dell (SW WA).
ReplyDeleteI should not have gotten my hopes up.
Poo.
Hey Cliff, which do you trust more- accuweather.com, or weather.com? (or, neither?)
I hope the model disagreement means less snow... I'd be glad to be cold and dry here in Bellevue and across the bridge to the U district.
ReplyDeleteLove your comment about Jim Forman. Snowstorms (and any other disasters) just wouldn't be the same without him.
ReplyDeleteWell, it looks like there is a good chance for my first grader to once again whoop with joy: "we're so LUCKY to be living in the convergence zone!!!" (decent snow in Mountlake Terrace; and we have our eyes out for Leah...)
ReplyDeleteI thought that snow seemed awfully localized. Yesterday around Noon I was at church about a mile north of Downtown Bellevue when we got about an inch of snow within an hour that began sticking to the roads, which led to a partial cancellation of the meetings. Just a mile away in Downtown, there was basically nothing (although the snow caught up a couple of hours later and put some pretty intense snowfall in the area for an hour or so.)
ReplyDeleteRe: Dropsondes, yes, totally cool little instruments. Over the oceans, you chuck these out of high flying aircraft to gather info for the data hungry monster models. For hurricanes, it really helps to do this upstream to assist divining where the darn things will go. In the Pacific, the aircraft have been flying routinely for winter storms prediction for some years now. Dr Mass would know how much. Come to think of it, those little sondes were originally invented to aid atmospheric researchers (I think, correct me if I'm wrong) - and they have! Huge credit has to go to all the folks who developed them...
ReplyDeleteWinter Storm Watch issued! East wind event maybe as well?!
ReplyDeleteAll of you might also be interested in reading NOAA's information regarding Tuesday night/Wednesday's storm track:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXAFDSEW&wfo=SEW
Each model run shows a large potential for 6+ inches, even at worst case (best case?). There is a potential that the snow on Wednesday will not turn to rain until Thursday, which could lead to some really REALLY impressive snow totals for pretty much all of western washington, save maybe the south border area.
"You notice the Seattle DOT plow on the job! A lot of snow."
ReplyDeleteAnd is that Hizzhonor's home in the background? ;^)
Really hoping the low tracks farther to the south... a lot farther! Here in Eatonville that warm air seems to pour into our area right away, starting us out as rain way before everyone else.
ReplyDeleteThe models are still so far apart on Wednesdays snow. Sounds like we may get some good snow tonight though, so I guess I'll take that. Sure wish it would stay longer than a day though!
The track of the low on the UW WRFGFS can be tracked with each run using the dprog/dt feature
ReplyDeletehttp://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d3_slp+v2012011821///
I don't watch the ECMWF or look at the NAM (wrfwrf?) that closely from home, but I do watch that wrfgfs. I want to see the low track south of Seattle, and it wouldn't hurt if it were deeper, that would help to pull the cold air down in northerlies, tapping on the Fraser. Fun to watch each run!
I helped the kids start mounding up snow for an igloo. Good think I had the blue tarp out to help scoop it up.
We have 2" on the ground at my spot
in MLT, froze up good last night so the kids aren't all muddy for a change.
The kids and I and my wife have all kept an eye out for the Dog Cliff, sorry no sightings from us--we live across the park from the Rec paviliion, and I think if the dog were
near our block we ought to have seen
it, walking to and from school etc.
I should've taken a photo as proof, but we had 5 inches at my house on the south end of the Central District.
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone know where to find the ferry wx graphics online?
ReplyDeleteIn Madison Park we had 8.255 cm (3.25") on Sunday.
ReplyDeleteLovely on all the trees.
It was the most sticky snow I've ever seen (and I've seen alot having grown up in Pennsylvania). Massive snowballs in just a second.
I had to go out and knock the very heavy snow off of the evergreen broadleaf shrubs- for example we have several rhodies that were weighed down almost flat!
New forecasts from the NWS show lower than expected temperatures for Wednesday morning and afternoon. Any new information about how much snow and when it will turn to rain on Wednesday?
ReplyDeleteAround how much snow does it take to cancel UW classes? It takes about a half an inch to close Seattle Public Schools...
ReplyDelete3-4 inches in downtown Kirkland:
ReplyDeletehttps://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/0TRk2KGssbn2oPfPdbS1PIFxVila5CddA-QwWNi-RSI?feat=directlink
At Central Way and 6th. Going up I-405 (left of picture) was quite a sight to see yesterday. Looking forward to more (yes, I am crazy).
NWS is officially predicting snowmageddon now:
ReplyDelete".SHORT TERM...VERY HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT SEATAC COULD EXCEED ANYTHING SEEN SINCE NOVEMBER 1985...A TOP 5 RECORD 24 HOUR SNOWFALL AMOUNT. "
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXAFDSEW&wfo=SEW
I notice the winter storm warning is getting closer and closer and around Ellensburg.
ReplyDeleteHi Cliff - can we get another NOWCast tonight with your take on the upcoming storm for Mon PM - Tues PM/Wed AM - Im reading all the info I can find but cant make sense of it all! I need you to show the way.
ReplyDeleteMy thoughts exactly, Angus.
ReplyDeletePerfect example of differences in local snow. We live on top of the hill on Rose Hill in Kirkland and we easily had 7 inches.
ReplyDeleteI think the snow looks great, but I seem to be the only one in the area that doesn't want a foot of snow. I am always laughing about why people live here if they want a ton of snow.
When it rains, North Everett and South Marysville get hit with the miserable convergence zone - almost like the Snohomish River acts like a 'wick' drawing the rain clouds up. How come when it snows it misses us? Maybe an inch of snow in N. Everett/S. Marysville. My kids are pretty disappointed (and it makes for a needless snow day - they might as well be at school.)
ReplyDeleteSeeingred:
ReplyDelete"I am always laughing about why people live here if they want a ton of snow."
Exactly because it rarely happens. If we had that much snow every year then people would either not care or not like it.
Cliff, would it help to publish your confidence levels alongside each forecast, as well as your historical performance on similar predictions?
ReplyDeleteFor example, say today is Tuesday:
- Wednesday, 70% chance of moderate snow (80% confidence, 65% accuracy).
- Thursday, 40% chance of light snow (60% confidence, 52% accuracy).
- Friday, 50% chance of snow/rain mix (40% confidence, 35% accuracy).
I think the problem is that people don't see the inherent uncertainty listed in the forecasts they're shown in the news.
Or maybe news outlets wouldn't publish that information because people would rather be indignant at uncertainty than adapt their lives to it.
Cliff,
ReplyDeleteI think part of the problem is that people don't see the inherent uncertainty listed in the forecasts they're shown in the news.
Would it help to publish your confidence levels alongside each forecast, as well as your historical performance on similar predictions?
For example, say today is Tuesday:
- Wednesday, 70% chance of moderate snow (80% confidence, 65% accuracy).
- Thursday, 40% chance of light snow (60% confidence, 52% accuracy).
- Friday, 50% chance of snow/rain mix (40% confidence, 35% accuracy).
Or maybe news outlets wouldn't publish that information because people would rather be indignant at uncertainty than adapt to it.
About 12 inches since 12am near downtown Olympia! Still coming down like crazy!
ReplyDelete