You have seen it many times...
Driving down a hot road during the summertime you see some water on the road
... and when you get there... it is gone... The road is perfectly dry. The famous water on the road mirage (due to the bending of light from sky by the heating roadway)
Here is a video of a water on the road mirage (also called an inferior mirage):
Well, we have had a wintertime mirage the past few weeks..the Snow Mirage.
Home many times--3, 5, 7 days out--the models suggest a major cold spell with the flow amenable to snow. And then as we get closer it falls apart, often due to a trough moving westward of the initially forecast position.
And its back.
The model forecasts for next Wednesday and Thursday would warm the heart of a polar bear.
You want a high amplitude trough, well positioned to bring in cold air....you got it.
Look at this pressure and pressure forecast for Thursday...megacold and a huge pressure gradient over us. Bellingham would be blown away with NE winds.
Model forecast of lowland snow? You bet.
The only negative for those of us in central Puget Sound is that rain (snow) shadowing evident in the above forecast...but who knows about the details?
Well, I won't tease anymore....and I won't get too excited about this until Monday. Still there then and the European Center model is on board, I will head out to get a new parka...I will need it.