Its days are numbered. There is no doubt about it anymore. The handwriting is on the wall. All the expert pundits are in agreement. But it won't easily release its grip for another month or so.
The regime in Libya?
No, we are talking about this year's La Nina and the cool, wet weather it has brought.
Astronomical spring might have arrived on March 21, but the past few weeks have been cool and wet, and nearly every day has been below normal. Here is the temperature difference from climatology (average conditions) for the past month: lots of below normal conditions (blue) in our part of the woods. In fact, this has been one of the worst early springs on record.
A month and a half ago the snowpack was well below normal. Now the tide has reversed with above-normal snowpack over virtually the entire region (see graphic).
Here is an amazing plot from the Seattle Public Utilities web site showing the extraordinary jump in snow pack over the past month. You will be able to water your lawn this summer!
Over Texas and the southeast, La Nina has brought warm and dry condition--the result has been a series of destructive wildfires over Texas: here is some dramatic video footage:
But La Nina is dying. Look at the temperatures in the tropical Pacific:
The colder than normal anomaly is weakening. And if you look below the surface, colder than normal water has been replace by warmer water...ready to push the surface! (see graphic)
And the latest computer simulations indicate a transition to a neutral state (neither la nina nor el nino)....but keep in mind there is plenty of uncertainty (see graph)
But none of this will do us any good this spring and the National Weather Service is forecasting colder than normal temperatures over the next month:
Don't blame me....