Monday, December 29, 2008
Today's Rain and the Upcoming Potential Storm
Well it is back to normal around here. A modest Pacific disturbance is moving through this morning with moderate rain in the lowlands (see high resolution visible satellite image). There is a low center right off the coast...see the notch in the clouds off of Forks...that is where it is. If you ran an animation of the cloud images you would see the swirl (you can do so at (http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir4km_enhanced+12)
The associated front has made landfall...and you can the enhanced band associated with it just inland from the coast. After the front, the atmosphere destabilizes due to cold air moving in aloft and you can see the instability type clouds...cumulus type.. offshore. So we will transition later this morning to showers and sunbreaks.
Regarding the potential big storm on Friday...it is still there (see latest forecast output attached). Once features like this get within 100 hrs out, I really start to take them seriously. But there is still considerable uncertainty. Run after run now is giving a big storm, and multiple models are showing it as well, but they are still varying widely in timing, position, and to some degree amplitude. Some of the runs are predicting a low center of less than 970 millibars. Around here that is a serious low (although nothing special in the Gulf of Alaska). Someone around here is going to get it. But who? Sort of like a bullet being fired from a shaky rifle...something is going to get hit hard...but we are not sure where.
PS: Some people have asked for the placement of arrows on figures, etc. I just don't have the time to do that...this has to be a quick casual thing for me...or it will be too onerous to continue. I hope you understand. Also, some of you wanted a more interactive listserv or twitter function. If some of you want to do that, it is ok with me.
Posted by Cliff Mass at 9:46 AM